Börsipäev 7. november
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Täna kell 15.30 avaldatakse USA töötusemäär, septembri 6.1% pealt oodatakse liikumist 6.3%-ni.
Tuntumatest ettevõtetest avaldavad kvartalitulemused viimastel kuudel tugevalt pihta saanud General Motors (GM) ja Ford (F), lisaks veel Sprint Nextel (S) ning peale turgude sulgemist ka Sotheby's (BID). -
Vähemasti tänase päeva algus tundub pisut rohkem tõotavam tulla. ES +2.2%.
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Töötusemäär üllatas negatiivselt:
October Unemployment Rate 6.5% vs 6.3% consensus
October Nonfarm Payrolls -240K vs -200K consensus, prior revised to -284K from -159K
October Average Hourly Earnings y/y +3.5% vs +3.5% consensus
October Average Weekly Hours 33.6 vs 33.6 consensus -
Vaadates eelmise kuu ülespoole revise'imist, siis võib väga vabalt sama asi juhtuda kuu aja pärast ka oktoobri numbritega. Samas, reeglina on need numbrid usaldusväärsed vaid ca +/-100 000lises vahemikus ning ca -150 000 töökohta võrduks kasvava tootlikkuse tõttu 0%lise SKP kasvuga. Praegused numbrid viitavad tagasihoidlikule negatiivsele SKP näidule, mida ju tegelikult kõik turul muidugi juba ka ammu ootavad.
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Ja nii nad tapsidki meie futuuriplussi.
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Optimistile valmistaks rõõmu, et vähemalt mõni näitaja suudab kasvada.
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Optimist oli oktoobris kah õnnelik. Volatiilsus ja varaklasside vaheline korrellatsioon kasvas mis mühises!
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Saksamaa DAX -0.12%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.28%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.73%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.56%
Venemaa MICEX +1.71%
Poola WIG -0.11%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.55%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.29%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.75%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.70%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +4.35%
Tai Set 50 +0.17%
India Sensex 30 +2.36%
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Expect More Chaos
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/7/2008 7:43 AM EST
There are several good protections against temptation, but the surest is cowardice.
-- Mark Twain
The DJIA has lost nearly 1,000 points in the last two days as we await what many believe will be some very poor monthly employment numbers. Anticipation of high unemployment is just one of many things that investors are worried about as we grapple with historic credit and banking problems and rapidly cooling international economy.
As investors, our job is to protect our capital while trying to gauge when investors might finally believe they have fully priced in all the negatives out there. That is not an easy process, especially because we have not seen anything to indicate that matters aren't still becoming worse. To price in the worst, you first have to have some sense as to what that might be. So far this market has been clueless as to how bad things will become in housing, unemployment and the overall economy. Whole industries like banking and automotive are still in a state of chaos, and the government is still in the process of devising more bailouts and stimulus packages.
The technical action also flies in the face of the notion that we have priced in the worst. We generally don't drop as hard and as fast as we have in the last two days if we are grouping to find a bottom. We still have some technical support at the lows of October, but market players are showing little interest in systematic accumulation.
In a market with a massively ugly downtrend like we have right now, it is important not to become overly optimistic when we have a short-term oversold bounce. As we saw last week, bear-market bounces can be very big and sharp. They get some folks very excited but then serve as a trap that makes the bear market even more painful.
The jobs report is going to be very important because we have yet to see a really sharp spike up in unemployment that many have been anticipating. Many feel it is just a matter of time before the economy takes its toll on jobs, and the report today may be the first major indication of that.
The good news is that expectations are low, and in fact the market is already trading up in front of the news as many think the worst is already priced in. Of course, this whole expectation game after losing 1,000 points is going to make the short-term trading very chaotic.
Longer term, the picture remains the same. We are stuck in a bear market and stocks are acting poorly. We may be due for a short-term oversold technical bounce, but unless you are a daytrader, there isn't any reason you should be jumping into this market.
Prepare for another very tricky day of trading and don't forget -- the most important thing you can do in a bear market is to protect your precious capital.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: WPRT +34.0%, QLTY +23.0% (light volume), FSYS +17.9%, TC +13.7%, SWKS +13.7%, TBSI +13.7%, SOLR +10.7%, EBS +10.3%, NVDA +10.2%, CGV +9.4%, TRLG +9.1%, SAPE +8.7%, FLR +8.1%, CHINA +7.6% (light volume), GXDX +7.5%, MIDD +7.3%, PCLN +7.3%, SD +6.1%, ZINC +4.2% (light volume), TS +3.3%, ONXX +1.6%... M&A news: LFG +68.4% and FNF +7.8% (LandAmerica Fin to be acquired by Fidelity National Financial; LFG shareholders will receive 0.993 shares of FNF common stock )... Select oil/gas names showing strength with crude higher: TOT +2.7%, BP +2.6%, RDS.A +1.7%, CVX +1.4%... Select solar names trading higher: STP +8.2%, SOL +7.7%, CSIQ +5.8%, ESLR +3.6%, LDK +2.3%... Select metals/mining stocks showing strength with higher spot prices: GOLD +7.4%, MT +5.8%, GFI +5.8%, BBL +4.2%, RTP +4.2%, AAUK +3.6%... Other news: FULT +5.1% (will replace Valassis Communications in the S&P MidCap 400 after the close of trading on Monday), CLNE +4.8% (announces ownership plans for existing network of five existing Las Vegas compressed natural gas stations), FWLT +3.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), GSK +2.9% and SNY +2.0% (still checking)... Analyst comments: TKC +9.4% (upgraded to Overweight at HSBC).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GNW -17.2% , ARAY -16.5% , STV -8.4% , BEBE -5.3% , S -5.2% , WWWW -5.0% , IRF -4.6% , DIS -3.8% (also downgraded to Neutral from Accumulate at Wunderlich), QCOM -2.3%... Other news: YHOO -10.0% (Ballmer rules out new Yahoo bid - Financial Times), LVS -6.2% (affirms commitment to Marina Bay Sands development in Singapore), WFC -5.0% (prices 407.5 mln shares of common offering at $27/share), GHL -1.2% (announces the pricing of its common stock offering)... Analyst comments: CLF -1.6% (downgraded to Market Perform at Friedman Billings). -
Täna lõi aktsiapõhiseid ootusi kasumi osas ühe sendiga ($0.12 vs oodatud $0.11) bebe Stores (BEBE). Sihtgrupiks naised. Müügitulu jäi aasta aja tagusega enam vähem samaks ning ületas $163 miljoniga napilt ootusi. Arvestades negatiivset sentimenti kõige vastu, mis praegu jaemüügiga seotud, on need ikkagi päris korralikud tulemused.Aga tarbijate harjumused on viimastel kuudel eriti rängalt pihta saanud - oktoobri võrreldavate poodide müüginumbrid olid all tervelt 20% ning ettevõtte juhtkond ütles, et kui ka november ja detsember on samasugused, teenitakse kolmandas kvartalis EPSi $0.12-$0.16 vs analüütikute konsensus $0.18. See nüüd pole küll ametlik prognoos, kuid on hea teada, kuivõrd ärahirmutatud (nais)tarbijad täna negatiivsete majandusuudiste ja -sündmuste tõttu on. Kuid teadmine, et ka oktoobrikuiste kesiste ostutrendide jätkudes suudetakse ikkagi positiivset EPSi näidata, on tegelikult bebe investorite jaoks positiivne. Kaubeldes 12x rahaga läbikorrigeeritud kasumil ja makstes üle 2.5% dividendi, on need sõnad väga korraliku bilansiga jaemüüja juhtkonnalt siiski pigem julgustavad.
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Lisan siia veel viimast korda ka 3. kvartali tulemuste hooaja viimase nädala tabelile lingi. Tasub pilk peale heita.
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kill koll alapoole umbes kella 9 paiku
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Saame näha. Aga see, et suudetakse employment reporti numbrite peale praegu tugevust näidata, on tubli saavutus turu poolt. Nagu eespool ütlesin, on minu arvates turu ootused kahe majandusnäitaja osas paigast ära. Kolmanda kvartali SKP kasv oli negatiivne ning negatiivset kasvu oodatakse ka 4. kvartalilt. See tähendaks aga vähemalt pidevalt üle 200 000lisi kuiseid koondamisi... Negatiivse SKP stsenaariumiga on kõik nõus - kuid nüüd 240 000lise koondamise numbri peale minnakse verest välja? Disconnection...
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September Pending Home Sales m/m -4.6% vs -3.4% consensus, prior +7.5%
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Briefingu traderid on seisukohal, et turg kosub kuni Obama kõneni ja peale seda korraldatakse fake breakout üles, mis saab korraliku müügisurve osaliseks (mis oleks nende sõnul hea shortimis võimalus), kuid eks ole näha missmoodi turg käitub. Ise seda seisukohta ei poolda, kuna pikad on olnud väga ettevaatlikud ja shordid üsna julged. Müügisurve kindlasti tuleb aga päeva lõpuks peaks indeksid siiski positiivsele poolele jääma.
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Tõusuüritus hetkel veel suht väikse käibega, kas suudetakse ralli korraldada?
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China signals may launch economic stimulus package - Reuters.com
Plaani jõustumisel võiks turgudele mõneks ajaks päris korraliku põrkepinna pakkuda.
