Börsipäev 17. november
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Morgan Stanley on kärpimas Venemaa telekomide hinnasihte, samal ajal jäetakse soovitus nii Vimpelcomi (VIP) kui ka MTSi (MBT) puhul endiselt "overweight" tasemele. MTSi hinnasihti langetatakse $86 --> $68, VIPi oma $32 --> $27.
Our 2009 revenue forecasts drop ~15% for both stocks. MTS is now trading on 2.6x 2009 EV/EBITDA compared to VimpelCom at 3.4x.
Üsna palju keskendutakse analüüsis rubla devalveerimisohule. Arvestades, et ADRide kasumid on dollarites, võib kasum tänu rubla väärtuse langusele oluliselt kukkuda ning aktsiate hindu mõjutada. Lisaks on telekomide võlad suures osas dollaripõhised, kuigi viimase 12 kuu jooksul on laenatud enamjaolt rublades.
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Kusjuures nood analüüsimajad on ühed kiftid asjad. Nad kärbivad oma sihte siis, kui aktsiad juba karmilt peksa saanud on. Tagant järgi tuutuluututamine. Võiks võtta suvalisi stocke, mis aasta põhjades jõlguvad ning vaadata, kuidas stockide sihte kärbitud on.
Go-go-go Goldman Sachs! -
jyriado, sell-side analüütikute soovituste baasil raha tegev mees on umbes nagu jõuluvana, tark blondiin, või UFO - kõik räägivad, käituvad nii nagu oleks olemas, kuid need, kes näinud on, kas valetavad või põevad mingeid psüühhilisi häireid. :-D
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Ausõna, mina usun UFOdesse ja tarkadesse blondiinidesse ka :)
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To jyriado.
Go-go-go Goldman Sachs! --- Kas sealt on mingeid uudiseid?
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Ärge nüüd häbenege, pange julgelt UKB11C0.7 parem äär välja. Volaka saab lakke vaadates. Lambi kõrval. Kui ma orderi panen, siis muutke jälle kähku ära. Nii on normaalne, põnev kassi-hiire mäng. See praegune, et te lihtsalt ääre ära koristate, on ebahuvitav.
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Heinos, tegelikult ma viitasin Goldmani üsna hiljutisele naftahinna prognoosile, mis oli 200.
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sellepärast enamikul investeerimispankadest ka nii s...ti on läinud , et teevad tehinguid samuti enda prognoosidest lähtuvalt
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Wachovia annab värskelt $65 2009 targetiks... Mis sa ikka oskad öelda.
200 targeti andmisel sa vist ei vaielnud sellega? -
Muidugi annab! :) Ei vaidle küll, sest ei tegele naftaga ning ei oma nägemust. Küsimus on, et kui analüüsimaja nii räigelt valele poolele on jäänud, siis kes nende kliendid tahavad olla?
Erki Kert rääkis suvel, et analüüsimajad müüvad soovitusi põhiliselt fondidele. Aga kui fondid ufosid ja "tarku blondiine" usuvad, siis võin ju minagi fondi juhtida :P -
Fondid palkavad ikka enamasti oma analüütikud, kes sell-side meeste hülgemöla peale enamasti muigavad ning nad kasutavad sisendina pigem sell-side meeste poolt söödavaks tehtud datat, kui mingeid "soovitusi." Kui nüüd väikeinvestor Jaan Tavaline fondide poole rusikat vehib, et miks need fondid siis IKKAGI nii nigelalt performivad, siis pole Jaan sellest aru saanud, et karjuv enamus fondibisnesest püsib suhtelise tootluse kontseptsioonil. Kui turg kukub 50% ja fond kukub 40%, siis on fondijuht supermees, kuid Jaan T on 40 prosaga superpees.
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General Motors (GM): White House says it doesn't want automakers to fail, believes aid should come from already appropriated loan program - Reuters
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Nagu ma aru saan, siis see keiss ei läheks läbi, et Goldman investeerib ise papi naftasse ja siis kukub naftathindu pumpama ja selle pealt teenima? Aga kellele need sihid siis mõeldud on? Kas Jaan Tavalisele? Too Jaan, kes oma maja pealt saadud pandiraha naftasse küttis suve keskpaigas, on nüüd 63% miinuses. Siit moraal, tuleb fondidesse investeerida =)
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S&P on läinud Ungari riigireitingu kallale ning langetanud seda BBB/A-3 peale. Teadupärast on see veel viimane 'investment grade' tase. Väljavaade negatiivne.
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CEE - hell on wheels?
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Tugevad numbrid:
Industrial Production 1.3% vs 0.2% consensus; prior revised to -3.7% from -2.8% -
koos eelmise numbri revisjoniga siiski mitte üleraru tugev
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Saksamaa DAX -2.50%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -2.22%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.72%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -3.91%
Venemaa MICEX -5.93%
Poola WIG -2.57%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.71%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.10%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.22%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +2.85%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.78%
Tai Set 50 +1.37%
India Sensex 30 -1.01%
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Volatility Is Still a Huge Hurdle
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/17/2008 7:03 AM EST
A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul.
-- George Bernard Shaw
The G-20 meeting of the world's economic powers failed to produce anything particularly dramatic. Much action has already been taken around the world to help bail us out and more is pledged, but as everyone already knows, we are facing some tremendous economic struggles and it is going to take some time for things to play out. There are no easy answers and the likelihood is that things will get worse before they get better.
So does that mean that the stock market is doomed? Does a bad economy mean the market will never go up? Not necessarily. The market looks ahead and it has been doing that for a while and has already priced in a very bleak future. The question is whether we have enough negativity in the market at this point to support some sort of countertrend rally.
There are a couple positives going for the bulls at this point. First the washout and huge reversal Thursday was the sort of action that tends to lead to further upside. That was undermined to some degree by the ugly selling on Friday afternoon but the reversal on Thursday was big and powerful enough to still be favorable. The market can't afford to give back too much more of that Thursday gain, but if buyers can show a little resolve after a weak open this morning we should see more bottom-fishers jump in again.
Another positive the bulls have going for them is seasonality. We are entering the strongest time of the year for the market and a little strength could feed on itself. No one is going to want to be left behind if we start seeing some steady upside.
The biggest negative for this market right now is the absolutely crazy volatility. It is nearly impossible to buy and hold a stock in a disciplined manner when we have swings of more than 5% intraday. You might do some very short-term daytrading, but this volatility scares away the big money that prefers to accumulate stocks in a systematic manner.
We need volatility to slow in order for there to be the level of trust that will support a sustained market advance. That is the biggest hurdle we face right now.
I'm optimistic that the market may finally be able to get some sort of decent bounce going here soon. Charts of individual stocks are looking a little bit better as many have held above the October lows and have built some bases. There still isn't much to be excited about, but there is some promise. I'm certainly not rushing in and buying, but I am watching carefully for some more signs that maybe we will finally find some support. As always, I want the market to prove itself to me before I do much buying. I'm not interested in trying to guess when the turn will occur.
We have a shaky start this morning, which is probably a good thing. No big answers came out of the G-20 meeting, so we have to continue to discount the worst. Today will be a particularly good test of whether we might be close enough to support some stabilization.
I'm on the road today and will posting on a limited basis. Good luck and go get 'em.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SID +1.5% (light volume)... Other news: GNW +40.1% ( announces filing for savings and loan holding co status), FNM +14.8% (Eddie Lampert reports new stake in Fannie Mae of 34 mln shares - CNBC), LVS +10.6% (discloses that it has removed going concern doubt), AMD +6.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), GM +5.6% (Reuters reports the White House says it doesn't want automakers to fail, believes aid should come from already appropriated loan program; also DJ reports General Motors sells out of Suzuki, raises $230 mln), ETN +3.4% (Warren Buffett adds new stake in Eaton of 2.9 mln shares), COP +2.3% (Warren Buffett hikes stake in ConocoPhillips to 84 mln shares at the end of Q3)... Analyst comments: NOK +2.5% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill and upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: TGT -5.5%, LOW -3.9%... Select financials trading lower: RBS -8.2%, LYG -7.3%, AEG -6.7%, HIG -6.3%, ING -5.9%, CS -3.8%, MS -3.4%, GS -2.7%, WFC -2.5%, BCS -2.0%, JPM -1.7%, BAC -1.6%, HBC -1.2%, USB -1.1%... Select oil/gas related names showing modest weakness: PBR -2.6%, TOT -2.5%, E -1.3%, RDS.A -1.0%... Select solar names trading lower: STP -6.5% (target lowered to $25 at Jefferies & Co), FSLR -5.8%, YGE -4.3%, LDK -3.2%... Select fertilizer related names trading lower with weakness attributed to negative pricing commentary from tier 1 firm:CF -8.2%, IPI -6.6%, TRA -5.8%, MOS -3.2%, POT -2.5%, MON -1.5%, AGU -1.0%... Other news: UTHR -28.2% (Lilly licenses U.S. rights for Tadalafil PAH indication to United Therapeutics who will make an upfront payment of $150 mln to Lilly ), HD -6.7% (down in sympathy with LOW), BIDU -5.4% (still checking)... Analyst comments: FCX -6.1% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), DELL -6.1% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), WFR -5.5% (downgraded to Hold at Collins Stewart), MTL -5.2% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), DIS -3.9% (downgraded to Hold at Soleil), AA -3.9% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), CP -3.5% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), SAP -2.9% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), FMS -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank). -
Joel, BBB ei ole viimane investment grade tase.
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Kunagi ammu siin LHVs teemaks olnud Mark Cuban jäi vahele insaider treidinguga. Süüdistajaks siis SEC ja teemaks Mamma.com
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aurora, mõtled ilmselt miinusmärki. Nõus. Ka BBB- on veel investment grade, kuid jätsin hommikuses kommentaaris sellise 'pooliku sammu' lihtsalt teadlikult mainimata.
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Somaalia piraadid kaaperdasid täislastis naftatankeri :O
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The US-bound tanker was captured on Saturday some 450 nautical miles south-east of the port of Mombasa, and is now approaching the Somali port of Eyl. The Sirius Star is carrying its full load of 2m barrels - more than one-quarter of Saudi Arabia's daily output.
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7733482.stm -
see on küll Somaalia majandusele hea uudis, järgmise 25 aasta nafta vajadus rahuldatud seal riigis.
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Varstui ütlem Onu Säm Somaalia valitsejatele, et te istute kellapommi otsas, kui nii edasi läheb.
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Ega Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed ja tema valitsus ei ole seal millegis süüdi, nemad saavad sellest teada alles reedel, kui valitsusametnik saadetakse korraks (1 kord nädalas) Keeniasse, et riigi ainus telefon korra levis oleks ja muu maailma uudiseid saaks kuulata :)
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09:55 Reportedly the hijacked Saudi oil tanker has been freed from pirates - unconfirmed report on Saudi TV in regards to earlier this morning that a Saudi oil tanker was attacked by pirates in the Arabian sea and its 25 crew were taken captive.
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Siis viib Onu Säm neile punase satelliittelefoni, kus on hõimuvelle pilt ja kaks nuppu ( ON-roheline / OFF-punane ) ning ühendab ära.
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Ega need Somaalia piraatide laevatrikid hästi ei mõju. Kui nii edasi läheb, siis peavad sealse ookeani piirkonna rahvusvahelised rahuvalvajad alaliselt üle võtma.
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Viimase tunni liikumine olnud suht kitsas koridoris, koridorist välja murdmine toob eeldatavalt ka suurema ja korraliku käibega liikumise, kuid kummale poole seda üsna raske ennustada. Ise oman nägemust, et täna võiks siiski olla positiivsem päev ja liikumine toimub uute tippude suunas.
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Džiises, te Black Hawk Downi ei ole vaadanud või? Onu Säm ei ütle ega tee mitte kärbsepesagi seal enam.
A muideks on seal piirkonna kõige arenenum telekomivõrgustik, iga mobiilimasti peab küll püssimees valvama, aga see-eest pole jälle maksukoormat :) -
Pirates seized a Saudi-owned tanker "three times the size of an aircraft carrier", says the US Navy.
Al-Arabyia, the Saudi-owned television station, reported this afternoon that the ship had been freed, but both the US Navy and Saudi Aramco, which owns the supertanker, said they had no knowledge of any release.“The latest information we have is that they are taking the vessel to a Somali port,”
see laev kaaperdatigi ja ei ole ikkagi vabastatud.....somallased on ikka päris naglad vennad -
WFR hoiatas
Revenue 500M +-25M -
Kui veel mõni saudide megatanker peaks kaaperdatama võiks nad rahuliku südamega olematu valitsusega Somaaliale sõja kuulutada ja need piraadilinnad kildudeks pommitada. Järgneks vaid ÜRO väike näpuvibutus ja kõik.
