Börsipäev 21. november
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Päeva alguseks rasketel aegadel üks hea positiivne uudis Nike (NKE) aktsionäridele:
Nike (NKE) increases quarterly dividend 9.0% to $0.25/share
Ja ka jaemüüjalt HD Q3 dividendid väljas:
Home Depot (HD) declares Q3 dividend of 22.5 cents -
Aktsiaindeksid USAs üle öö tõusnud 3.5% plusspoolele...
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Eile langes Citigroupi (C) aktsia jätkuvate hirmude tõttu üle 26%, lisaks tõusid CDS'd, kuid oluliselt aeglasemas tempos. Päev lõpetati 4.02% peal, mis on kõrgem, kui oktoobris tehtud eelmine tipp, aga päris paanilist hirmu veel ei väljenda.
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Ma panen ka siia ühe graafiku. Kui nüüd vaadata eriti pikkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkka graafikut, siis on meil pulliturg kestnud ja jätkuvalt kestmas juba ca 80 aasta:
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langemiseks ruumi küllaga
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Kahju, et mu vanaisa investor polnud ja oma aktsiaid mulle ei pärandanud seda pikkkkkka vaadates.
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Oppenheimer tuli MSFT kaitsma, keda samuti kõvasti alla pressitud viimaste langustega.
Oppenheimer upgrades Microsoft (MSFT 17.53) to Outperform from Perform and sets a $22 tgt, as they believe business is less insulated from the macro-headwinds vs their previous outlook yet feel the recent sell-off in its shares makes for an attractive entry point... -
On jah pulliturg, kuid paluks nüüd LHV-l teha ka arvutus, palju on keskmine aasta tootlus olnud, kui algperioodiks võtta 1929 (enne krahhi) ja lõppseisuks tänane. Arvan, et see palju reklaamitud 12% aastas küll ära ei tule.
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Kui me seda pikkkkkkkkka graafikut vaatame, siis järgmine aata saame trendi joonelt põrgata juba!
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1987nda graafikut vaadates kukume tsipake veel ja siis kimame 59% üles :-D
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Ignore the Predictions, Focus on Price Action
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/21/2008 8:16 AM EST
A pessimist is a person who has had to listen to too many optimists.
-- Don Marquis
After two very ugly days of action, quite a few technicians and market pundits are making ugly predictions about how low the indices will ultimately go. I heard talk of hyperinflation, many years of pain and the S&P 500 hitting 500 or even lower.
These sorts of predictions are the inverse of the bottom-calling that I make fun of so often. The logic is that the trend will just keep on going and going and not end until it is at some very extreme level. Projecting a continuation of current conditions makes more sense than constantly proclaiming that things will suddenly reverse and go back up, but these gloomy projections can be equally inaccurate and hold little value for those of us trying to make a buck.
I have absolutely no idea how far the current downtrend will continue, and I see little benefit in trying to guess. All we know is that we have severe selling and have been heading down in a big hurry. The best course of action has been to just get out of the way and let it happen. That doesn't mean we anticipate that it will last until we go to zero and the economy is in a prehistoric state.
In fact the great likelihood is that we have some big bounce here fairly soon. What we should focus on is whether it will last long enough and go far enough to be playable. We don't anticipate it, but we watch for conditions that suggest it is due. Once that occurs, we can start to think about shorts and whether the levels we bounced from will hold. Worrying about how horrible things might be in 2009 isn't going to do us much good at the moment.
To make money in the market, you should be an opportunist and realist rather than optimist or a pessimist. The only truth is in the price action of the stocks in front of us every day. They will be your best guide to what is going on.
Unfortunately, the media loves predictions, and they will constantly subject us to them. You can bet we are going to see a bunch of articles predicting what the market will do in 2009. Ignore them. They are totally useless and much more likely to misguide you than to help you. The market knows all and sees all. That is what you need to watch.
We have a bounce this morning as talk about a deal for Citigroup (C) makes the rounds and we are just too oversold not to have a little relief. We'll see how the dip-buyers do after the open, but given how bad things have gotten and the high level of pessimism, I think they be able to manage a bit of upside for at least a little while.
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Ülespoole avanesid:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ARUN +22.6% (light volume), CRM +11.7% (also upgraded to Outperform at Baird), HNZ +5.2%, DELL +4.5%, GPS +4.0% (also upgraded to Outperform at Cowen and upgraded to Buy at Citigroup)... M&A news: DISK +189.9% (signs definitive merger agreement to sell co for ~$100 mln; stockholders to receive $2.75 per share in cash)... Select financials rebounding from sharp 2 day decline: IRE +24.3% (receives 'unsolicited' investment approaches - Bloomberg.com), CS +15.7%, DB +12.4%, HIG +12.2% (comments on its highly rated commercial mortgage-backed securities portfolio), C +9.6% (Director bought 35K shares at $8.15 on 11/18; not seeking any Government aid, unusual client activity or additional TARP money-person close to bank according to person close to bank - Reuters), BCS +9.5%, CIT +7.5%, MS +7.3%, COF +7.2%, WB +6.1%, RF +5.7%, ING +5.3% (ING Group settles over Dutch insurance premiums - Reuters.com), HBC +5.2%, BAC +4.9%, WFC +3.9%, GS +3.8%, BK +1.7% (said that it will reduce its worldwide workforce of 43,000 by ~4%, or 1,800 positions)... Select metals/mining names showing strength: AU +19.7%, AAUK +18.9%, GOLD +17.2%, BBL +17.0%, MT +16.8%, BHP +15.4% (EU tells BHP its iron-ore plan may jeopardize Rio bid - Bloomberg.com), RIO +14.2%, RTP +13.4% (EU tells BHP its iron-ore plan may jeopardize Rio bid - Bloomberg.com), HMY +12.4%, GFI +11.4%, GLD +1.5%... Select oil/gas names showing strength with crude higher: BP +7.8%, TOT +7.7%, RDS.A +7.1%, PBR +6.5%, COP +4.1%, SLB +3.8%, CVX +3.3%, XOM +2.9%... Select drybulk shippers modestly rebounding: DRYS +16.8%, SBLK +8.3%, DAC +5.6%, EXM +5.5%... Solar names trading higher despite multiple analyst downgrades of select names and disappointing CSIQ results: SOL +17.6%, YGE +16.8%, ESLR +12.7%, STP +11.3%, LDK +7.1%, FSLR +2.5%... Other news: LGND +46.6% (Ligand Pharma collaborator GlaxoSmithKline receives FDA approval for PROMACTA), CLNE +10.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), PETD +9.7% (amends its revolving bank loan agreement; Increased by $75 mln to $375 mln), HLX +7.0% (co is unaware of any reason why recent trading of the stock has resulted in a significant decrease in its price of the last few days)... Analyst comments: MSFT +9.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), XTXI +5.6% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman- DJ), NVTL +2.2% (upgraded to Neutral at Piper), PEP +1.4% (initiated with Buy at Citigroup).
Allapoole avanesid:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ADSK -19.7% (also downgraded to Neutral at Baird, downgraded to Underperform at Merrill and downgraded to Hold at Kaufman Bros), CE -16.1% (also downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), CSIQ -3.7% (also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), NVLS -3.5% ANN -3.4%... Other news: TIVO -2.6% (TiVo statement on order by U.S. District Court, Eastern District of TX and scheduled additional damages and workaround hearing)... Analyst comments: GR -5.7% (downgraded to Market Perform at Friedman Billings), SPWRA -2.5% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), VMW -1.8% (downgraded to Sell at UBS). -
Saksamaa DAX -0.34%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.83%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.23%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.80%
Venemaa MICEX -0.31%
Poola WIG +2.18%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.70%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.93%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.72%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.74%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +6.25%
Tai Set 50 +1.22%
India Sensex 30 +5.49%
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Kuldar1 Re: Börsipäev 21. november modify 21/11/08 16:02
On jah pulliturg, kuid paluks nüüd LHV-l teha ka arvutus, palju on keskmine aasta tootlus olnud, kui algperioodiks võtta 1929 (enne krahhi) ja lõppseisuks tänane. Arvan, et see palju reklaamitud 12% aastas küll ära ei tule.
Kuldar, ega siin midagi keerulist ei ole. Võtame ette vana hea tuleviku/nüüdisväärtuse valemi FV=PV(1+r)astmes aastate arv.
Aastaid on meil 79 (2008-1929), PV=18 ning FV=800. Põhimõtteliselt vastus r-i lahendades oleks ümardades siis, et r=5%.
Siia tulevad juurde aga dividendid, mida ettevõtted aktsionäridele välja maksavad. Kui me eeldame, et dividendimäär on näiteks pidevalt 3%, siis praegune nominaalne väärtus 800 punkti tõlgenduks hoopis 8000 punktiks (1.03astmes 79 korda tänane väärtus 800 punkti). Sellisel juhul teeme uuesti, et PV=18, FV=8000 ja N=79 ning saame tootluseks, et R=8%...
Palju lihtsustavaid eeldusi, aga kokkuvõttes see tootlus sinna 8% ja 12% vahele kuskile jääb... -
C alla 4$...
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Kass toob välja ka võimaliku põhjuse: When it Citigroup broke $5, most mutual funds were mandated to sell.
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See $5 piir on jah traditsiooniliselt hell teema suurte fondide jaoks.
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samas vist paljud maaklerid ei lase ka alla 5 USD aktsiaid shortida ... või on selles suhtes midagi muutunud?
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http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudised/paevapilt/article.php?id=20404741&pictureID=20404768
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Kas citi räägib turu üles?
13:23 EDT C theflyonthewall.com:
Citigroup CFO: "Whatever merger wealth I have left is invested here"-CNBC
Citigroup CFO: Bank has less mortgage exposure than most major banks-CNBC
Citigroup CFO: Stock has little to do with company's operations-CNBC -
Huvitav, kas nad hämavad samamoodi nagu Bear Stearn omal ajal? Bear ajas kägu ju viimase hingetõmbeni... ja siis läks põhja.
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Ega Lehman parem ei olnud. Paistab, et turuosalised enam kolmandat korda ämrit ei kolista
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Paljud panevad Enron-it praegu
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õigeaegne ralli, annab lootust
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Hoppla UYG 3,29 juurest 3,75 paarikümne minsaga
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Põhjus vist selles. Olin veitds eemal
Obama to announce economic team on Monday-MSNBC
NBC News has learned that Obama will roll out his economic team on Monday, in an effort to reassure the markets. Obama will personally announce the economic team and answer questions following the announcement. The nominee for Treasury Secretary will be New York Fed President Tim Geithner and the nominee for Commerce Secretary will be Bill Richardson, barring any last minute changes. Reference Link :theflyonthewall.com -
Paistab küll, et see uudis on turgudele positiivselt mõjunud ja ülesminek üsna jõuline.
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See oleks küll pull, kui sellest nüüd turg üles kimab.
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Opt.reede kohta selline viimaste minutite volatiilsus on ikka meeletu. Mida küll turutegijad teevad?????
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Turutegijad on nagu ära hirmutatud lambakari.
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SPY500 tuimalt tunniga 50 pung. No problemo ju raha teha või kaotada.
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Eesti traderid vist praegu ennast öölokaalidesse sisse seadnud, et sellise lammutamise peale nii vaikne kuidagi.
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Ei kõik eesti traderid ostsid täie hooga, ega muidu poleks sellist tõusu.
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Kas osa sellest tõusust võis olla sellest, et puttide väljakirjutajad realiseerisid kattepositsioone?
Kuigi vaadates viimase aja liikumisi, pole +/-50 punkti jaoks tegelt mingit põhjust vajagi :-D -
pidi ikka pikalt ootama, et kogunenud kukkujaid rallisse müüma saaks hakata.
