Börsipäev 25. november
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Australia ASX 100 +168.70 +5.98% 2,988.50 11/25 4:46pm
Australia ASX All Ords +186.60 +5.51% 3,575.40 11/25 4:45pm
Australia ASX Mid-cap 50 +121.30 +3.86% 3,261.90 11/25 4:46pm
Hong Kong Hang Seng +403.71 +3.24% 12,861.65 11/25 1:46pm
Hong Kong HSCC Red Chip +46.15 +1.69% 2,771.08 11/25 1:46pm
Japan Nikkei 225 +218.08 +2.76% 8,128.87 11/25 12:45pm
Kergelt sulailma on tunda! -
Energiapull Rogers taas areenil. Lühidalt öeldes kiidab toormaterjale ja laidab dollarit. Video siin. Video on aga päris pikk ja Bloomberg on sellest kena kokkuvõtte teinud, seega saab ka siit lugeda.
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et futuurid siis juba kenas plussis:)!
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SPY tundub short olevat siit.
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Kell 15.30 avalikustatakse 3. kvartali korrigeeritud SKP näit. Teadupärast oli see viimane kord negatiivne. Ootus on näidu osas miinus 0.5%. Oodatust erinev number võib futuure päris korralikult liigutada.
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Fed Creates Facility To Support Consumer Credit, GSE Debt
Turud märgatavalt üles. -
mnjah.
shordiks juurde nats SPYd. *risky muidugi -
Vastavalt ootustele:
Q3 GDP q/q-prelim -0.5% vs -0.5%, prior number was -0.3% -
3Q08 GDP -0.5%, vastas ootustele
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olulised muutused 2 komponendis
Q3 Core PCE q/q-prelim +2.6% vs +2.9% consensus, prior number was +2.9%
Q3 Personal Consumption-prelim -3.7% vs -3.2% consensus, prior number was -3.1% -
Sept S&P Case-Shiller Composite-20 y/y -17.40% vs -16.9% consensus, prior -16.62%
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Vimpel-Communications (VIP): Q3 EPS of $0.27 misses by $0.07. Revenue of $2.8B (+45.3%) in-line.
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USA alustab päeva optimistlikult - futuurid on plussis 2.5%.
Saksamaa DAX +1.86%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +2.08%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.84%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.81%
Venemaa MICEX +4.11%
Poola WIG +0.96%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +5.22%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.38%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.45%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.85%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.02%
Tai Set 50 +1.48%
India Sensex 30 -2.33%
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Don't Trade on Hope
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/25/2008 8:40 AM EST
Trading this market is like trying to unhook a fish with your feet.
-- Chief Keokuk
Since the first of October he have had three rallies, lasting no more than two days, wherein the Dow gained close to 900 points and was up nearly 10%. In the first two cases the gains were completely given back. We are now dealing with the third such attempt, and the bulls are optimistic that this time at least some of that gain won't so quickly disappear. Are we finally ready for a change in market character?
The bullish case here is essentially the same as it has been for a while. Sentiment is horribly negative, we have priced in a complete market meltdown, technically we are oversold, we have seasonality kicking in and government action is going to finally start having a positive impact.
That actually sounds like a pretty good argument for some upside, but the bearish case is compelling in its simplicity. We are still in a very sharp and ugly downtrend and there is nothing in the action to indicate that a major turn is at hand. These big one- and two-day jumps are classic bear-market spikes, and it is a mistake to assume that they will produce a turning point.
The hardest thing for so many people in this market is to not get prematurely hopeful. Every time we have a big day, people rush in looking to make up all their losses, and then they see the market roll over again. With the way the media acts, it isn't surprising that people don't wait for some real proof that the market is changing. The business media creates great anxiety over the whole idea of being fully invested for a turning point.
Even if the market wasn't in a downtrend this is an extremely difficult trading environment for most market players. The volatility is at levels few have experienced for long, and the swings in the last hour of trading are so big and random that logical, systematic trading is rendered useless.
Until the market conditions change, most market players should be trading very small and focusing on defense. This is just not a market that we want to embrace with our precious capital.
News is now hitting of yet another Fed plan. This one is to buy consumer paper and government-sponsored housing paper. The market ticked up on the news and is now back down a little as the meaning of this is digested. It is obvious the government is trying everything it can to save this economy. The big question for us is whether it will give market players sufficient confidence to change the overall trend of this market. We have a tremendous amount of work before that happens, so we can't trust these countertrend bounces, no matter how big and sharp they may be.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CTRN +5.7%, SBLK +5.0%... M&A news: BHP +14.0% (BHP Billiton withdraws Rio Tinto bid - WSJ)... Select metals/mining names showing strength: BBL +11.2%, MT +9.2% (warns of U.S. layoffs - WSJ), HMY +4.3%, AAUK +3.7%, GFI +2.6%... Select financials showing continued strength: CS +7.5%, CIT +7.1%, UBS +4.2%, JPM +2.5%, GS +2.4% (Goldman Sachs' massive bond sale goes well - WSJ), C +1.7% (Officials weighed up plan to buy shares - FT), COF +1.5%, BCS +1.2%, WFC +1.1%... Select oil/gas names modestly higher: RDS.A +3.6%, BP +4.7%, TOT + 4.0% ... Other news: IDCC +16.4% (announces settlement of Samsung patent licensing disputes), ACF +8.3% (announces $500 mln senior subordinate asset-backed securitization), ABB +8.3% (still checking), JNY +7.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), GGP +5.0% (Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management reports 7.5 pct stake in GGP; Ackman's Pershing Square stake in GGP represents about 20.1 mln shares - Reuters), SAP +4.9% (still checking), ALTH +4.0% (announces that FDA grants Pralatrexate orphan drug designation for the treatment of patients with diffuse large B-cell Lymphoma)... Analyst comments: ANF +1.4% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Cowen).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: JRJC -18.5% (also target lowered to $12 at Brean Murray), IPAR -9.9%, DSW -6.5%, SBUX -5.3%, ADI -3.4%... M&A news: RTP -33.6% (BHP Billiton withdraws Rio Tinto bid - WSJ), NRG -4.8% and EXC -1.9% (NRG Energy's Board of Directors rejects Exelon's unsolicited exchange offer)... Other news: ACTU -16.4% (amends tender offer to repurchase $60 mln of stock), CEA -13.4% (continued weakness following yesterday's 15%+ decline), AXA -10.3% (reduces full-year profit forecast, 2012 targets - Bloomberg.com), ZQK -6.9% (ratings lowered to 'B+' From 'BB-' at S&P; Outlook negative), TD -6.8% (to issue 30.4 mln shares at C$39.50 a share), ING -4.0% (still checking), AZN -3.9% (to continue to promote Abraxane - DJ)... Analyst comments: LM -9.3% (downgraded to Underperform at Friedman Billings), DRE -4.7% (downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia), TWI -4.3% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), ULTA -3.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), DDR -3.6% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), REG -3.2% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), BT -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), CPSI -1.0% (downgraded to Underperform at Leerink). -
Ouna Ants, headline EPSile ei maksa ülemäära suurt rõhku panna. Kui rubla languse tõttu poleks kahjumit saadud, oleks Vimpelcomi (VIP) kasum tõusud aastasel baasil 33%. Samas ei taha öelda, et valuuta liikumisi arvestama ei peaks (tegelikult on rubla liikumine hetkel kõige tähtsam mõjur), kuid varem tehtud prognoosidel ei ole nii kiiresti muutuvas keskkonnas tähtsust. NYSEl kauplevad ADR'd on rubla languse muresid juba väga hästi peegeldamas (82% VIPi võlast on dollaris), kuid loeb, mida ettevõte tuleviku kaitseks ette võtab.
Äritegevuses on endiselt kõik hästi: tulud ja kliendibaas on kasvanud kõigil turgudel. Kvartali jooksul lisandus 7.1 miljonit uut klienti ning Vimpelcomi klientide arv ulatub nüüd 57.8 miljonini. Suurimatel turgudel Venemaal, Kasahstanis ja Ukrainas tõusis klientide arv kvartalibaasil 6.1-13.9% ning tulud suurenesid 8.4-32.3%.
Peagi hakkab konverentsikõne ning pikem kommentaar homse päeva jooksul Pro all. -
November Consumer Confidence 44.9 vs 38.0 consensus, prior 38.0
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Nii kuidas USA raha trükimasinatega juurde prindib, on ka dollar pihta saamas ning euro vastu nõrgenemas - täna tuli taas vahelduseks €1 eest välja käia üle $1.30.
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Energia hindade 10%lised päevasisesed liikumised pakuvad küll sektoris häid võimalusi, kuid eelkõige õhutavad iga suurema tõusu ajal positsioone müüma ja languse ajal ostma. Investeerimisest seega asi kaugel ja tugevate närvidega kauplejaile loodakse niimoodi võimalusi.
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VIP-i osas
yks hea link MOSIBOR
Võimalik et see ka venemaa foormumisse panna tuleks
http://www.nva.ru/nva/popups/mosibor -
Paulson rääkis turu alla, vaatame kas Obama järjekordne kõne mõjub paremini?
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Võimalik, et Obama lihtsalt turustab ennast hästi... kuid mulle endale tundub, et üle hulga aja on USAl olemas nii lühem (majanduslangusest välja saada) kui pikaajalisem plaan (defitsiidist välja saada). Ja see on hea.
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Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) rallib täna, pluss 100% juures liigub...
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Müük läheb üsna hoogsaks juba. Kaldun arvama siiski,et selleks korraks ei ole see põrge veel läbi.
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TMA'ga seoses - kas saan õieti aru, et Dividendid on 10 dollarilt aktsialt ... samas kui aktsia ise on suhteliselt penny :S
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Need dividendid olid siis kui ettevõte oli veel "vee peal"
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Stanfordi analüütik Frederick Moran alustas täna Amazon.com'i (AMZN) katmist Sell reitinguga hinnasihiga $25. Kuigi antud hinnasihti võib pidada märkimisväärseks, siis Stanford tees just originaalsusega ei hiilga (link):
Moran expects revenue growth to “decelerate materially in 2009 as retail sales declines worsen as inventory and pricing competition builds during a deep global recession.” In his research note this morning, Moran reports that Stanford Group economist Lyle Gramley fears U.S. GDP could be down 5% in the fourth quarter. “Stifled lending, shrinking household wealth and a strapped consumer could cripple consumer spending including online commerce through 2009,” Moran writes.
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US House Financial Services Committee says hearing on auto bailout to be held Friday, Dec 5 - Reuters
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Morgan Stanley (MS): Fitch revises Morgan Stanley's outlook to stable
Fitch Ratings affirmed Morgan Stanley's debt ratings and revised its Rating Outlook to Stable from Negative. Morgan Stanley has demonstrated its ability to manage through very difficult markets raising capital from government programs and from private investors. Further, Morgan Stanley has raised cash to support its operating entities. Balance sheet deleveraging is improving liquidity and capital ratios, although less liquid assets including noninvestment grade loans are not expected to decline materially until market liquidity improves. Profitability is expected to remain weak and highly variable with reductions in staff expected to return the company to moderate levels of profitability over the intermediate term. Capital is considered sufficient to absorb these pressures. Fitch also considers Morgan Stanley to be a survivor that would receive additional government support if needed.
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Turul on nii mõnigi shot, mida võiks homseks shortida. JASO ja JRCC näiteks.
