Börsipäev 5. detsember
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Täna teatatakse USA töötusemäär, mille puhul oodatakse tõusmist 15 aasta kõrgeimale tasemele. Oktoobri 6.5% pealt prognoositakse liikumist 6.8%-ni.
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WSJ-s väike ülevaatlik pilt, kui palju on erinevad riigid alates eelmise aasta augustist intressimäärasid langetanud:
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Mille pärast OCKC nii hullult tõuseb Micex'il ?
http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUKLI48361020081118?symbol=OGKC.MM - selle pärast? -
Anna Liisa, ma kõiki RAO UESi ettevõtteid eraldi ei tunne (jaguneti ca 30-ks ettevõtteks :)), aga OGKC puhul tundub põhjus just sinu viidatud artiklis olevat. Vaadates graafikut, hakkas aktsia tõus pihta just novembri keskel, kui konverteerimisest teatati. Vahepeal on keskpank lasknud rublal odavneda ning järgmisel aastal on langus enam kui kindel - seega puhas tulu ettevõttele. Iseasi, kuidas taolist käiku riigi tasandilt vaadatakse. Tundub, et kurja noomitust püüdis juhtkond selle lausega ära hoida:
"We are not speculators. We are not trying to get an extra profit, but are simply counting on avoiding the devaluation of the assets we have"
Samas on selge, et ennast saab ka teistmoodi hedgeda kui kogu rubla positsiooni ümber konverteerimisega...
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Morgan Stanley on tõmbamas AMD hinnasihti $3.50 pealt $1.50-ni.
AMD pre-announced that its Q4 core revenues would be approximately 25% lower than 3Q08 core revenue of $1,585 million (ex-license revenue). We note this update comes only three weeks after the company held its analyst day providing details about its short- and long-termbusiness. Our Q4 loss per share estimate increases to $0.52 (from $0.25), while our 2009 and 2010 loss per share estimates change to $1.67 (from $1.53) and $1.14 (from $0.93), as we assume that the company will reduce its cost structure, given the weaker-than-expected demand. Our price target change from $3.50 to $1.50 is larger percentage-wise than our 33% cut to our ’09.
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Nädala kokkuvõtte youtubest:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQWauR8wZfs -
Citi on alustanud Burger Kingi (BKC) katmist hinnasihiga $26.
Long Run U.S. Momentum - BKC continues to make solid progression on its domestic turnaround. Initiatives centered on menu innovation, remodels, and extended hours can continue to drive positive SSS long term. This, combined with positive unit growth should drive positive top-line growth in the long run.
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abesiki, kogu respekti juures: su riimiseadmise oskus on kõvasti rooste läinud :P
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Kas BIG-is võime täna shortijate pigistust näha? Tulemused ju väga kehvad ei olnud.
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Vimpel Comms upgraded to Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $20.
Citigroup upgrades VIP to Buy from Hold and lowers their tgt to $20 from $32 -
November Average Weekly Hours33.5 vs 33.6 consensus
Decline in Nonfarm biggest since December of 1974
November Hourly Earnings m/m +0.4% vs +0.2% consensus; y/y +3.7% vs +3.4% consensus
November Unemployment Rate 6.7% vs 6.8% consensus
November Nonfarm Payrolls -533K vs -335K consensus, prior revised to -320K from -240K -
Crude oil drops sharply to lows, in electronic trade, at $42.39 following the jobs data; now off $1.13 to $42.54
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Reaction to the Jobs Report May Be Severe
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/5/2008 7:53 AM EST
Nothing is so wretched or foolish as to anticipate misfortunes. What madness is it to be expecting evil before it comes?
-- Seneca (4 B.C. - 65 A.D.)
The key question for the market right now is whether we have sufficiently priced in all the bad news out there. There is absolutely no question that things are terrible. That isn't any big mystery, and the market has been pricing it in very aggressively for a while. What we have to wonder is at what point we actually price in the worst and hit bottom.
The monthly jobs report that due this morning is going to give us some indication of whether investors believe that things can't get much worse. Over the last couple of days, there has been a strong tendency to buy the bad news. We saw when Research In Motion (RIMM) warned about its earnings, on the beige book report and on the ISM services number.
Given how we have recovered from bad news lately, traders are lined up this morning to jump in on the jobs report in hopes of a quick bounce. However, when a trade is this obvious, there can be some very quick whipsaws as the fastest traders try to stay a step ahead of everyone else.
The other problem we have is that a big jump in unemployment is the sort of thing that really frightens people. A loss of jobs undermines all the other economic efforts that are being put forth, and it kills consumer sentiment. Although many have been expecting unemployment to grow, it really hasn't happened yet, and if it does suddenly leap higher it may no longer feel like the worst is priced in.
Aside from this one key economic report, we are still dealing with a market that is struggling to find some support. We have had a quite a few positive days lately, but also two sharp down days to keep everyone nervous. We are holding above key support on the S&P 500 at 815 or so and have a decent setup for some year-end strength, but the extremely high level of volatility is making it difficult for anyone to be confident in positions.
Volatility is likely to stay very high today as traders deal with the jobs news. That is going to prevent much systematic accumulation, but if we can continue to hold above key technical support levels, we may finally get a better countertrend bounce going.
No positions.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VSNT +20.9%, NOVL +6.0%, YGE +3.6% (also signs new sales contracts with IBC Solar AG for supply of 91 MW of PV modules), NATI +1.0% (light volume)... Other news: ACTU +32.2% (updates terms of $60 Mln tender offer), MTW +6.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), GSK +5.2% and SHPGY +3.3% (still checking for anything specific), RMBS +5.0% (announces that International Trade Commission grants company request for investigation), UA +4.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), VOD +4.3% (still checking), RTP +4.1% (WSJ reports bankers are wondering how Rio Tinto will refinance short-term debt in the wake of BHP Billiton's withdrawal), OSIR +3.6% (announces it has received approval from Health Canada to initiate a pediatric expanded access treatment program for Prochymal), THOR +3.0% (says interim data analysis demonstrates statistical superiority for the HeartMate II in destination therapy trial), HBC +2.9% (to make $367 mln gain from Metrovacesa deal - Reuters.com), TIVO +1.9% (discloses it voluntarily terminated revolving line of credit with Citigroup due to increased cash and short term investments balance)... Analyst comments: LEAP +5.7% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), TSYS +3.8% (initiated with a Buy at Brean Murray).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BIG -14.1%, ULTA -10.8%, SON -10.2% (light volume), WIND -5.1% (light volume), PKG -4.5%... Select financials trading lower: AIB -7.9%, CS -5.5% (Moody's affirms Credit Suisse ratings, changes outlook to negative), ING -4.6% (files mixed securities shelf), COF -4.6%, BAC -4.5% (Bank of America ests and tgt cut at Ladenburg Thalmann), MS -4.3%, JPM -3.5%, GS -3.4% (Morgan Stanley widens GS loss view - Reuters), PRU -2.6% (FBR cuts Q408 estimates to -$1.20; FY09 to $5.45), AXP -2.4% (tgt cut to $25 at Credit Suisse), C -2.2%, WFC -2.0%, RBS -1.5%... Select oil/gas related names showing weakness with crude lower: STO -9.1%, KWK -7.9%, SSL -7.2%, HAL -4.6%, EOG -4.1%, NOV -3.8%, E -3.8%, TOT -3.3%, COP -3.2%, PBR -3.1%, SLB -3.0%, RDS.A -2.8%, MRO -2.6%, BP -2.5%, VLO -2.5%, CVX -1.8%, XOM -1.5%... Select solar names trading lower: SOL -9.7%, SOLF -7.0%, FSLR -5.7%, SPWRA -3.6%, CSIQ -3.9%, STP -2.2%... Select metals/mining names showing wekaness with lower spot prices: RIO -5.0%, BBL -4.9%, AAUK -3.7%, MT -2.6%, NEM -2.4%, BHP -2.3%, GLD -2.3%, AEM -2.2%, GOLD -1.1%... Other news: BCE -3.5% (confirms no offer for a minority investment has been made), BA -3.0% (Boeing jet faces delays in the wake of walkout - WSJ)... Analyst comments: CBST -8.8% (downgraded to Underpwerform at Oppenheimer), ENER -7.0% (downgraded to Underweight at Barclays), BG -5.6% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill - DJ), APA -3.6% (downgraded to Outperform at Calyon), TXN -1.8% (downgraded to Underperform at Baird). -
ikka uskumatu kuidas nafta on kukkunud
ikka pikk ja lisan iga kukutud 1-2 taala järel -
Jälle must reede? Lausa imestamisväärt on, kuidas mõjub inimestele üksteise masendus ja pessimism :D
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Q3 Mortgage Deliquencies 6.99%, prior Q2 was 6.41%, Q1 6.35%
The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans somewhere in the process of foreclosure. -
DIG-komponendid saavad jubedalt pihta. RIG,SLB,HAL aasta põhjades->APA,OXY,MRO ja COP üsna põhjade läheduses.
Kui need gigandid põrkama hakkavad peaks DIG saama üsna korraliku tuule tiibadesse, kuid ilmselt niikaua kui energiasektor ja toorained lausmüüki saavad ei näe ka nendes tugevust. -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TC48yxeE8Zw
old but good -
Q: Wazaa?
A: Sport, Sport, Sport
Thats the market -
Tsy Official says US Treasury has enough rescue funds for crisis - DJ
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Chrysler Has Hired Bankruptcy Firm Jones-Day-Sources - WSJ
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Õige play oleks olnud HIG ja teised kindlustajad. Kuid, mis teha. Eks mõni teine kord. See näitab, kui mõni positiivselt üllatab, siis shordid saavad päris tugevalt vastu hambaid. Ei ole ka neil kerge.
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HIG juba $14 taseme murdnud, tehes tipuks $14.07. Päeva alguses, eelturul kõiguti 15-22% tõusus, kui uudiste voog algas.
Päeva alustati $8.80 pealt ->$14.07 põhimõtteliselt sirgjoones, ikka uskumatu:D
Muidugi keskmise käibe 14 milj. asemel on hetkeks juba 74 milj. -
Päris karm värk. Peaaegu 100% päevaga. Viimase kuu lühikesed saavad valu tunda. Arvan, et selliseid liikumisi tuleb veel, kui keegi positiivselt üllatab
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Lühikesed on väga julgeks läinud ning kui turg peaks põrkama üle 2-3 päeva, on lühikeste positsioonide katmist ohtralt oodata või kui tuleb vähegi positiivsemaid uudised nagu HIG puhul. Nõrgemad käed pestakse ülikiirelt välja.
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Hommikul vaatasin Big Lots ( BIG ). Suhteliselt norm tulemused ja ootab sellest kvartalilt in line tulemusi. Kuid avanes ka kuskil 12% miinuses, nüüd ilusasti tõusus, varsti jõuab 0-i tagasi, kui päevalõpp ei üllata.
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paranoia
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Crude oil sets fresh session low of $40.50 with minutes left in the session... currently -2.87 to $40.80
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US REP. FRANK SAYS THAT CONSENSUS IS "NOT A GUARANTEE OF SUCCESS" IN PASSING AUTO BAILOUT LEGISLATION - Reuters
US REP. FRANK SAYS "BEEN STRUCK BY A PRETTY BROAD CONCENSUS HERE THAT SOMETHING SHOULD BE DONE" FOR U.S. AUTOMAKERS - Reuters -
HIG uueks tipuks $14.54 ehk siis üle +100% tõusu.
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Justice Department says Treasury legally bound to inject capital into GSEs - DJ
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Hetkel päris korralikku tõusu juba rallitud, loodame et Hr. Turg peab päevalõpuni seekord vastu.
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ralli käib ilmselt selle peale:
Fed purchases securities outright
Federal Reserve buys $5 bln Fannie, Freddie, FHLB debt - Reuters -
October Consumer Credit -$3.5 bln vs $2.0 bln consensus, prior revised to $6.7 bln from $6.9 bln
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usa taas plussis:D no muidugi ega see tallinna börsi paraku ei mõjuta VIST- nagu viimaselajal näha on olnud...
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Minu õnnesoovid neile, kes eile HIG-i sõidu kaasa tegid! Ja neid oli.
