Börsipäev 10. detsember
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Australia ASX 100 +38.10 +1.28% 3,014.20 12/10 4:27pm
Australia ASX All Ords +49.80 +1.41% 3,583.50 12/10 4:26pm
Australia ASX Mid-cap 50 +81.10 +2.50% 3,319.10 12/10 4:27pm
Hong Kong Hang Seng +525.45 +3.56% 15,278.67 12/10 1:26pm
Hong Kong HSCC Red Chip +132.75 +4.10% 3,369.58 12/10 1:27pm
Japan Nikkei 225 +131.43 +1.57% 8,527.30 12/10 12:45pm
Turud rohelised
ja natuke negtiivsust Jaapanist. Japan in worse shape than feared -
stefan juba teises foorumis viitas, et eile langesid kolmekuuliste T-billide tootlused alla nulli. Ajaloos on seda varem ka juhtunud, 1941. aasta veebruaris. Käimas oli Teine maailmasõda ning kuigi USA astus otseselt sõtta alles detsembris, siis jaanuaris sai riigi juhtkond teada võimalikust rünnakust Pearl Harbori vastu ning jaanuari lõpus ja veebruaris viidi läbi mitu kõrgel tasemel kohtumist. Ilmselt oli hapudest nägudest näha, et läheb jamaks. Hirm tundub praegu sama suur olevat.
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cash ei olegi enam king?
hoopis T-bill ..?
või sinna jooksevad varad, mis ei tohi cashis olla? -
Noh, puhas cash pakuks negatiivse tootluse asemel 0% tootlust, aga ilmselt ei mahu madratsi alla $100 milkut ära. Peab suur voodi olema... Ju siis kardetakse nii suurt kollapsi, et eelistatakse raha valitsuse kätte anda. Mine sa tea, võib-olla pole seda panka, kus raha hoida, enam kolme kuu pärast olemas. Aga eks ta suurt hirmu näita, mullitunnused juba....
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hirmu mull ? arvad, et see hirm pole õigustatud?
viimaste nädalate uudistes ega maksronäitajates küll mingit indikatsiooni paremuse suunas pole
tuleviku E'd on ka kukkumas -
pigem jah mullitab vaikselt, kui hull see seis siis praegu on, pole ju maailmasõda ja asjad tegelikult toimivad, olgugi et kehvemini kui ehk mõni aeg tagasi.
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...ja kogu selle soigumise taustal DJ Wilshire 5000 +21,5% alates 20. novembrist. Formaalselt juba +20% alates saab nimetada pullituruks.
speedy: Äkki on kõik juba midagi sellest eesseisvast miskitpidi kuulnud? -
speedy, kasvõi hirmu mull. Vaadates kristjani postitust lühemas plaanis, siis näiteks üleeile oli huvitav päev - aktsiaturud rallisid samaaegselt võlakirjadega. Eile oli olukord juba "normaalsem".
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kristjan,
ja ega halvemaks ju enam minna ei saa, eksju -
ja ega paremaks ju minna enam ei saa, onju?
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Kui kõik eeldavad, et asjad läehevad täiesti peeti siis OODATUST halvemaks tõesti minna ei saa.
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eks ikka saab paremaks minna, aga kas see peab siis nüüd ja kohe minema
mis selle ESSjaPEE E ootused hetkel on ? kas S&P E võib langeda näiteks 50 juurde ? mida see võiks tähendada ? midagi head ? -
ei peagi nüüd ja kohe minema ja keegi ei eelda seda. E võib vabalt langeda 50 juurde, midagi sellist prognoosib muuseas mitte ainult Roubini vaid üsna paljud. Samas väitis Roubini oma investesteerimisstrateegiaks millagi CNBC-s vms "pasiivne investeerimine indeksitesse". Miks ta seda teeb?
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Teiselt poolt võttes on jällegi huvitav, et kes tahaks järjest madalamat tulusust, kui võlgniku võlg pidevalt kasvab. Käesoleva majandusaasta (algas oktoobris) eelarvedefitsiiti prognoositakse $1 triljoni ümber.
Clinton suutis eelarvet ülejäägis hoida, aga kui Bush 2001. aastal presidendiks sai, ütles ta üsna geniaalse lause. Täpset tõlget ei leia praegu, aga see oli midagi sellist, et riigil pole mingit õigust rahva raha ülejääkidena enda taskus hoida, see tuleb rahvale tagasi anda. Obama tundub jätkavat veel vingema defitsiidiga.
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See läheb rubriiki uskumatuid sündmusi kodumaalt: Kuidas pank sinult kodu võtab
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USAs see mitu aastat juba tavaline lugu.
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:-II
Kahju, et LHV Koondlehelt on ära kadunud Äripäeva pealkirjad. Selle asemel on pealkirjad a la Delfi (homodest ja Playboist). -
kristjan,
kas strateegia kirjeldamine tähendab, et ta hetkel osmas on ?
Roubini jutud küll eriti optimismi ei tohiks sisendada " we are gonna get a nasty recession " -
need jutud ei olegi mõeldud optimismi sisendamiseks. tõenäoliselt pole tal mingit erilist vahet, millal osta, see toimub automaatselt. Aga iseenesest huvitav, miks sa just nüüd oled Roubinit kuulama hakanud, mitte aga siis, kui sa kunagi minu TWM ideed "pikaajaliselt väärtusetuks" kritiseerisid? :-)
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Äripäeva pealkirjade kajastamine on kokkulepete taga, hetkel on LHV-l olemas kokkulepped Päevalehe ja Ekspressiga. Kui suur on teiste LHV kasutajate huvi Äripäeva ja näiteks Postimehe uudiste vastu?
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kristjan,
kui ma õieti mäletan, siis see oli üldistav teoreetiline küsimus - midagi sellist: "kui eeldatakse, et aktsiaturud pikas perspektiivis kasvavad 12% aastas, kas TWM lõpetab 0's?" või midagi sellist
eks inimsesed on igasuguseid inimesi kuulama hakanud
Peter Schiff'i ei kuulanud ka enne keegi vaid naeruvääristasid teda -
Huvi on kindlasti kolossalne. Uudised, et Anu Saagim on kedagi kusagil lakkunud, peaks ikkagi investeerimishuvilistele kättesaadavad olema!
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ma olen ka seda "Schif versus...." klippi näinud, mida sa mõtled. Üsna õpetlik.
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AloV, ma pooldaks üldse ilma nende pealkirjadeta lehte. Uudiseid lugemas oskavad kõik käia ja siis ise valida kas Saagim või Talse.
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Aus olla, siis ma ise olin samuti nende pealkirjadega harjunud ja tunnen teatavat puudust - kiire pilk andis hea ülevaate toimuvast ja kõik sai kätte ühest kohast.
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Ühes teises teemas tuli välja, et foorumist leiab ka õhtulehe austajad :)
http://www.ohtuleht.ee/index.aspx?id=307591&lid=7 -
Keegi võiks selle Shihvi klipi lingi siia teistele kaeda riputada.
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short SPY
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Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney on CNBC says she is still as bearish as ever, saying the health of the consumer is now the biggest issue for the U.S.
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lihtsalt, tunne on selline, et lähme negatiivsele territooriumile täna ...ei tea miks, aga SPY short tundub, et makes sense.
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Roubini võib ennustada igasugu koledaid asju, aga oma raha investeerib ta dollar cost averaging strateegia alusel ehk siis perioodiliste ostudena nii headel kui halbadel aegadel, muuhulgas ka praegu
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USA konsjuumer on 27 aastat oma tarbimist ja võlakoormust kasvatanud. Nüüd on see läbi. Asiaadid peavad ise tarbima hakkama, muidu...
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mul short AAPL@99.65. Morganilt negatiivsed kommentaarid + AAPL on päris tundlik liikuja.
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Applet oli tõesti veel 20 minutit tagasi võimalik selle hinna juures müüa, eelturu indeksite pluss aitas sellele vaid kaasa. Aga alla Apple'i aktsia täna tõenäoliselt tuleb, kui turg ka langema hakkab, siis seda kiiremini.
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abesiki,
kui nii kindel oled, siis buy SDS makes more sence -
ma juhiks tähelepanu AXP-le. Banc of America initiated sell $13 tgt ja citi $19 targetiga. täiesti adekvaatne tunduks seda shortida 22ni. Aga sellel turul who the f knows ..kuid siiski, äärmiselt adekvaatne tundub.
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Export growth plunged in November to -2.2% y/y (Consensus: 14.8% y/y) from 19.2% y/y in the previous month. These numbers were as bad as predicted by the recent PMI and early November trade figures from South Korea and Taiwan. However, the drop in import growth was even sharper in November, declining to -17.9% y/y from 15.6% y/y in October.
This sharp drop in import growth indicates that the current weakness in the Chinese economy is not just because of export weakness. Weaker domestic construction activity is equally important as an explanation. Because of the sharp drop in imports, the trade balance surplus surged to a record high in November. -
OK, cover AAPL@ 98.75. Üldiselt ootaks suuremat langemist, aga see Lõuna-Korea uudis teeb mind veits närviliseks, lisaks tundus, et mingi ostja tuli välja ja stock ei taha põhjade juures püsida. Lõuna Korea avas oma mobiilituru siis võõrale tarkvarale. 50 miljonit elanikku, 100% lähedane penetration. Ei julge lihtsalt praegu midagi kauem olla. Eks aeg näitab.
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Kuidas see exp/imp arvutus käib, mahus või rahas? Import rahas peaks toorainete hinnalangust vaadates peaks ka tulevikus y/y aina suuremaid kääre tegema.
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Can the Bulls Throw a Lasting Holiday Party?
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/10/2008 8:04 AM EST
Above all, we must abolish hope in the heart of man. A calm despair, without angry convulsions, without reproaches to Heaven, is the essence of wisdom.
-- Alfred Victor Vigny
I'm not so sure that hope is such a bad thing. Constant despair robs us of energy and enthusiasm for the longer term, and that is just plain depressing. In this market, the lack of hope is what is helping to produce the big increase in volatility. Trust levels are low and therefore we end up with very aggressive intraday trading, as no one wants to risk having big positions whipsawed as the Dow moves 300 or more points intraday on a regular basis.
Unfortunately, hope is a lousy investment strategy. We need it to stay psychology healthy, and we should always be confident that eventual success will be ours. However, buying stocks simply because we hope the bear market is going to end is a great way to lose a lot of money.
The good news for this market is that it is acting better as we enter one of the strongest times of the year seasonally. The auto bailout is helping the mood this morning. In the early going, the market is acting like no one saw that one coming, so I certainly wouldn't be too excited about it. However, it is positive that we have been seeing a more tepid reaction to the steady diet of bad news, and a lot of folks are anxious to proclaim that it is an indication that we have seen the lows and we're heading up from here.
The most important thing to keep in mind as you contemplate this market is that it is still a bear market, but bear markets always have some pretty good rallies. I'm going to scrupulously avoid the bottom-calling game and stay focused on the shorter term. I cringe every time I hear bottom calls, as they are so dangerous and unreliable.
I will treat short-term strength as just that and not start issuing proclamations that the "Great Turn" is upon us. The market will have to prove to me through sustained positive action that the major trend has changed. That means I'm not going to be loaded up in longer-term positions at the exact lows, but that is a minor price to pay for not being caught up in false hope during a major downtrend.
It is important that we not be so bearish that we miss out on the inevitable countertrend bounces that occur in a bear market. Some of the best rallies occur within downtrends because market players aren't ready for them and they rush to buy, causing things to move up quickly, which attracts more buyers and raises hope.
These rallies will end painfully, but they can run big and fast and further than you expect, so if you have the right time frame they can pay off if you are disciplined and quick. Conditions are ripe for some positive action over the next month or so as seasonality also helps, so I'll be focusing on the long side.
The big problem for traders continues to be this volatility, which is extremely tough to contend with unless you are trading intraday with a time frame of a few hours. Until that changes, position trading is very tough, because the charts are just too choppy.
There is no question the market still has a tremendous amount of bad news to contend with. It is doing a nice job of shrugging it off, but if it continues to mount, the weight may eventually become too much once again. If problems like unemployment keep going, they will dampen sentiment even if they are anticipated.
So let's give the bulls some room to get a little holiday party going here. They still have some issues here. The major indices have to contend with overhead resistance in the form of the 50-day simple moving average and plenty of folks who would be happy to escape this market if they could cut their losses a bit. However, there have been some bids under the market lately and an inclination to ignore bad news. The bulls are going to try to expend some energy for a while longer to make the seasonality they want so badly really happen. The bears may give them a little room to do so, but I'm pretty sure they will be back soon enough, and the serial bottom-callers will get to do their thing yet again.
Keep an eye on financials; they are seeing quite a few downgrades and their ability to shrug that off will be the primary "tell" of how well we can continue to ignore bad news.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ARST +9.2%, DYN +5.1% (light volume), GIII +4.6% (light volume), SAI +3.6%, AGU +2.6%... Select oil/gas names showing strength with crude higher: RDS.A +3.2%, PBR +2.7%, TOT +2.3%, COP +2.3%, BP +1.9%, CVX +1.9%, SLB +1.2%, XOM +0.9%... Select drybulk shippers trading higher: TBSI +12.8%, GNK +10.1%, DRYS +9.0%, EXM +7.4%, FRO +3.2%... Select metals/mining names showing strength with higher spot prices: RTP +16.7% (confirms that it will reduce global headcount by 14,000; plans to reduce net capex for 2009 to $4 bln from over $9 bln; also upgraded to Buy from Underperform at Merrill Lynch), BBL +7.7%, FCX +6.4%, BHP +5.9%, ABX +5.6%, AAUK +5.2%, AU +4.7%, GG +4.4%, GFI +4.2%, GOLD +3.9%... Other news: GNW +26.1% (announces definitive agreement to acquire InterBank, fsb; terms undisclosed), ALXA +17.2% (Alexza's AZ-004 meets primary endpoint of treating acute agitation in patients with bipolar disorder in Phase 3 Trial), CPE +16.9% (continued strength following yesterday's 30%+increase), BUCY +6.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), F +4.6% and GM +4.3% (Washington maps pact for bailout of big 3 - WSJ), NOK +4.4% (still checking for anything specific), YHOO +3.8% (Yahoo! major Yahoo stockholder cofirms sending letter to Yahoo Board; urges board to salvage Microsoft deal)... Analyst comments: FORR +3.3% (upgraded to Outperform at William Blair), ALU +3.1% (upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital Mkts), BMY +2.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ERTS -11.6% (also multiple analyst downgrades), CAVM -11.4% (also downgraded to Market Weight at Thomas Weisel), OPTT -2.1%... Other news: ARNA -14.4% (announces preliminary data from a Phase 2b clinical trial of APD125 did not meet the trial's primary or secondary endpoints), EK -13.9% (withdraws second-half and full-year 2008 guidance on continued economic weakness and currency shifts), ALD -9.9% (still checking), AIG -6.7% (faces $10 bln in losses on bad bets - WSJ), FMCN -5.1% (announces the restructuring of its in-store advertising unit and terminating of its remaining wireless advertising business), HTS -2.3% (prices offering of 8,181,818 common shares at $22.00/share), DVN -1.6% (files mixed securities shelf)... Analyst comments: AXP -5.1% (initiated with Sell at both Citigroup and BofA), SINA -3.3% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), AXYS -2.1% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), FTI -2.0% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), MA -1.8% (downgraded to Underperform at Cowen & Co), STI -1.5% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Morgan Keegan), AAPL -1.3% (Apple tgt cut to $95 from $105 at Morgan Stanley - Reuters), WFC -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill). -
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/fed-to-issue-f-bills/
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mnjah, SPY ..sego mkt (mitte et seda oleks vähe kurdetud)
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White House says agreement reached with congressional Dems on auto bailout - CNBC
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Huvitav, kas läheb positiivsete uudiste peale müügiks? Pakuks, et jah.
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White House's Deputy Chief of Staff Joel Kaplan says that the the bridge loan will lead the automakers to 2 possibilities: fundamental restructuring or bankruptcy
President's designee or 'auto czar' will be appointed. Says if the autos don't come up with a viability plan then they must give that money back to the govt.
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U.S. House Republican leader Boehner says offering alternative auto bailout plan in house - Reuters
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Nafta futuurid jõunud juba +9% tõusu peale inventori järgset sell offi +6% pealt -0.5% peale.
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head ajad hakkavad läbi saama
kallis dollar ja odav nafta on vist nüüdsest minevik -
tahan tagasi äripäeva
ja kuhugi võiks teha sven einari nurgakese, kus positiivust saaks vajadusel ammutamas käia :D -
poisid, kes tuled ära kustutas?
