Börsipäev 22. detsember
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Toyota Forecasts First Operating Loss in 71 Years on Yen, Sales
Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s second-largest automaker, expects its first operating loss in 71 years because of plunging North American and European car sales and a surging yen.
The loss in the year ending March will likely total 150 billion yen ($1.7 billion), compared with a previous forecast for a 600 billion yen operating profit, Toyota said in a statement today. The automaker cut its net income forecast 91 percent to 50 billion yen.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a13h4Myn37QA -
PBOC cuts deposit & lending rate by 27bps, reserve requirements by 50 bps. Effective dec 25.
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Energiahindade langus jätkab oma happele sarnast söövitavat efekti sektori kapitalikulutustele. TNK-BP kinnitas hiljuti, et langetab 2009. aasta capexit 27%, Encana 18%, Petrocanada 25%, Nexen 13%, Hess 27% ! Paari-kolme aasta perspektiivis on see tendents maailma energianõudluse probleeme muidugi ainult süvendamas.Üks väheseid, kes käitub sektorile vastupidiselt, on Exxon Mobil (XOM) - XOMi üks suurimaid plusse on ettevõtte väga tugev bilansileht ning see annab võimaluse ära kasutada langevaid tsemendi, terase, puurtornide, uute maardlate otsimise madalamaid hindu täna ära kasutada. Ja just seda ongi plaanis ettevõttel teha - XOM kaalub 2009. aasta capexi tõstmist 20% jagu, öeldes, et lühemaajalised kõikumised hinnas ei ole nende jaoks olulised. Väga huvitav käik ja mulle see meeldib. Hoiame silma peal. Kui madalad hinnad hakkavad ettevõtte aktsiahinnale pärast viimase aja tõusu 2009. aastal liiga tegema, siis võib mingil hetkel leida päris huvitava investeerimisvõimaluse.
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Annan lingi ka minu 20. novembri loole energiasektoris asetleidvatele kapitalikulutuste langetamistele, kes tahab ühtteist seal madalate hindade tõttu toimuvast uuesti meelde tuletada. Link siin.
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Saksamaa DAX -0.63%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.20%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.01%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.40%
Venemaa MICEX +2.99%
Poola WIG -1.41%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.57%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -3.34%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.52%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.76%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.05%
Tai Set 50 -3.36%
India Sensex 30 -1.70%
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Confidence Remains the Key
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/22/2008 8:12 AM EST
"There are three stages of a man's life: He believes in Santa Claus; he doesn't believe in Santa Claus; he is Santa Claus."
-- Author Unknown
The bad news about trading around the holidays is that it can be quite thin and very whippy. It is not a good environment in which to be slow or too trusting. More aggressive market players are trying to rack up some last minute profits while many are ready to close the books, call it a year and will start fresh on Jan. 1. It is quite easy to be whipsawed if you are not fleet of foot. The good news is that, according to Jason of SentimenTrader.com, the S&P 500 has been positive 64 times out of the last 80 years, which is a rate of 80%. Those are pretty good odds for some upside. Traders know this statistic very well, and that means that they will help to make it self-fulfilling to some extent.
Even with an overall positive bias, it still isn't going to be all that easy, especially after the year that we have had. What has really made this market difficult over the last few months is the unprecedented level of volatility. The intraday swings have been unlike anything we have seen before and have scared away a lot of money that can't handle a sudden 3%, 4% or 5% spike (up or down) in the last hour of trading. These folks are going to stand aside, and that means the forces that are causing the volatility will have an easier time of creating more of it.
What the market needs more than anything else is greater confidence. The Wall Street Journal has an article this morning discussing how investors withdrew $72 billion in funds in October alone. There isn't a lot of trust, and it is going to take a long time before many are enticed once again to trust their capital to the market. That might not always affect us in the short term, but it makes trading more treacherous as underlying support is much weaker.
For now, we will focus on the short term, and the good news is that there is a pretty good technical setup for the major indices. They have been in a relative tight trading range for a couple weeks, which provides a good base of support. When we combine that with the positive seasonal inclinations, it looks quite promising. I wouldn't start building big longer-term positions, but I'm much more inclined to take some long side trades. Unfortunately, the volatility and thin trading will mean we need to trade smaller and faster, but adapting is the only way to survive in this market for now.
So let's see if Santa delivers, but let's not be overly confident. After the year we have had, there is no reason to believe that there won't be some landmines out there.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Select oil/gas related names ticking higher: HES +2.2%, CHK +1.8%, BP +1.6%, COP +1.4%, RIG +1.2%... Select gold/metals related stocks showing strength with spot gold higher: SLW +5.4%, AUY +2.2%, GFI +1.9%, GG +1.7%... Other news: IRE +32.4% (Ireland to inject capital into three major banks - WSJ), AIB +26.4% (confirms it agreed to capital measures with Irish Government), HUN +12.7% (receives $325 million payment from Hexion), FMCN +9.3% (announces agreement to combine its digital out-of-home business with SINA), SPF +9.1% (announces preliminary discussions with TOUSA, Inc), SQNM +6.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), THRX +4.0% (GSK and Theravance announce positive Phase 2b results for LABA '444 in the treatment of COPD in the horizon development program), NVS +2.5% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: NUE +3.1% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: WAG -6.8%, SYY -4.0% (light volume), TM -2.0%... M&A news: GW -44.8% (no news out this morning; GW's pending merger with PDS is expected to close on December 23, 2008 and Friday was the last day for shareholders to elect consideration of $9.02 in cash or 0.4225 of a Precision trust unit for their shares)... Select financial stocks showing weakness: XL -5.0% (discloses that CEO will say that co to stay independent; no plan to raise capital; also Moody's cuts XL Capital's ratings on unrealized losses - DJ), GNW -4.1%, CIT -3.2% (extends the expiration date of its offer to exchange certain of its outstanding notes until 11:59 PM EST on Monday, December 22, 2008), BCS -2.6% (Barclays looks at Barclays Private Equity spin-off - FT),RBS -2.5% (Moody's places Royal Bank of Scotland's ratings under review for possible downgrade), IBN -2.3%... Other news: NCT -25.0% (elects to retain capital; Board elected not to pay a common stock or preferred stock dividend in Q4), SINA -7.7% (will acquire substantially all of the assets of Focus Media's digital out-of-home advertising networks), GGP -7.4% (gives concession to banks - WSJ), EC -6.7% (still checking), CVS -1.7% (ticking lower in sympathy with WAG)... Analyst comments: GM -8.7% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), NAT -3.6% (downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies), MON -3.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - Forbes.com), DRI -2.8% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), CTAS -2.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Soleil), PRU -2.3% (downgraded to Market Perform at Friedman Billings), POT -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - Forbes.com), X -1.6% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche). -
Uus tripple bull energy instrument ERX tundub üsna huvitav. Kui energiasektor peaks tibakenegi põrkama võiks ta $40 peale üsna kiirelt jõuda, kuid tegemist uue asjaga ja liikumised ettearvamatud.
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Kahekordsed ETFid olid/on toredad asjad. Ja nüüd hakkab üha enam tulema kolmekordseid... Ei pea vist väga kaua ootama enam kuni tulevad ka 4x ja 10x instrumendid alusvara suhtes tugeva nägemuse omajatele...
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Elektriautod on masstarbijale jõudmas üha lähemale:
TM Toyota Motor to display small battery electric car at N. Amer Auto Show; production model is affordable small 'town car' with limited range according to sources - WSJ -
Developers ask U.S. for bailout as massive debt looms - WSJ : The Wall Street Journal reports some of the country's biggest property developers have become the latest to go hat-in-hand to the government for assistance.
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Kus on nedne ETF kohta rohkem infot !?
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dol,
etfconnect.com on üldiselt ETFide jaoks päris hea lehekülg. -
Varasemad on fondihaldusfirma http://www.proshares.com/ ultra ja ultra short perekonna ETFid.
Kelle omad uued 3x on? -
direxionshares.com
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parasjagu käimas mingi muumia-film mida ühe silmaga jälgin ja seal üks vant ütles prohvetlikud sõnad
"So, It has begun" -
welcome back vix
see you at 500, s&p -
Jõuluralli avapauk homseks toimib viimas 30 min jooksul.
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kas autotootjate reitingud on nüüd officially junk?
