Börsipäev 29. detsember
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Kui reedene 26. detsember oli USA turgudel traditsiooniliselt väga õhuke päev ja olulisi suuri liikumisi ei toimunud peale nafta jätkuva nõrkuse, siis täna ootaks taas elavamat kauplemist. Hommikul on nii S&P500 kui ka Nasdaqi futuurid 0.5% miinuses ning nafta 2.5% plussis $38.65 peal.
Suuremaid majandusuudiseid ei tohiks sel nädalal tulla - tähelepanu saavad kindlasti aga 30. detsembril avalikustatav tarbijausalduse näitaja, millelt oodatakse eelmise kuuga sarnast 45 punktilist tulemust ning 31. detsembri esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate number ning reedel, 2. jaanuaril juba ISM indeks, millelt oodatakse novembri väga nõrga näidu järele jätkuvat nõrgenemist. -
FT Eesti-promoline artikkel Try a Baltic exchange?
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RealMoney all on rahvusvahelised ETFid ette võetud ja nii mõnegi puhul tekib tunne, et ollakse olulisest vastupanemest läbi saamas. Tehnilist analüüsi kasutavatel kauplejatel tasub silm peal hoida - olgu siis kas liikumine üles- või allapoole...
Euroopa, Aasia ja Kaug-Ida (EFA):
Arenev Euroopa (EEM):
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Nafta hind 8% plussis $41 peal...
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Saksamaa DAX +1.77%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.76%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +2.34%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.70%
Venemaa MICEX +1.11%
Poola WIG +1.19%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.09%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.02%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.06%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.81%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.05%
Tai Set 50 -0.04%
India Sensex 30 +2.19%
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Seasonailty Is Not a Sure Thing
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/29/2008 7:06 AM EST
It is inevitable that some defeat will enter even the most victorious life. The human spirit is never finished when it is defeated ... it is finished when it surrenders.
-- Ben Stein
We have just three more days of trading before we are finished with one of the worst years ever for the stock market. Many market players are taking time off and will start fresh in the new year, which will keep volume light. However, every year there are those hoping to finish with a few additional gains, and that tends to give us some positive seasonality.
Positive seasonality can be a dangerous thing if you are overconfident. While the odds may be in your favor, it doesn't always work and you can't be overconfident. For example, last year we hit a high the morning on Dec. 26, finished the year with three straight down days and then started the first week of 2008 with a very sharp drop of trading. That wasn't what typically occurs, but seasonality is just a tendency and not a guarantee.
The good news is that the technical setup for the major indices is favorable. We have slowly drifted down on low volume the past week or so but have held support so far, and it wouldn't take much to get a little bounce going and bring us back to recent highs.
The bad news is that the news flow continues to be very poor. Newspapers are just downright depressing to read, as they write story after story about the difficult economy and related fallout. It is hard for investors to have much confidence when we have this rather hopeless mood.
This morning we have major military action taking place between Israel and Hamas on the Gaza Strip, with a death toll of over 300 being reported. That violence is pushing crude oil back over the $40 level and is driving up commodity-related stocks.
Although volume has been extremely light during the holidays, there are better charts developing. I have quite a long list, but they need confirmation in the form of high volume. I'm optimistic we will have some better trading here, but we need some positive action to trigger it.
Early indications are positive as Europe and Asia rise on higher oil and commodity prices.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Select metals/mining names showing strength with higher spot prices: HL +7.7%, MT +5.8%, DROOY +5.7%, AUY +5.6%, SLW +5.2%, AAUK +4.9%, RGLD +4.0%, RTP +3.9%, GOLD +3.6%, GFI +3.2%, AEM +2.9%, KGC +2.8%, NEM +2.8%, BHP +2.1%... Select oil/gas related names showing strength with crude higher: STO +5.4%, NOV +4.1%, SLB +3.8%, MEE +3.7%, RIG +3.4%, TOT +3.3%, APA +3.2%, COP +3.1%, BTU +3.1%, BP +2.5%, RDS.A +2.3%, XOM +1.7%, CVX +1.6%... Select solar names trading higher: YGE +5.3%, STP +3.8%, FSLR +2.2%, ESLR + 1.8%... Other news: LINE +16.9% (mentioned positively in Barron's), BPHX +7.6% (announces multi-million dollar modernization contract with a "large Scandinavian bank"), DB +6.0% and C +3.6% (checking for anything specific), SI +5.6%, SAY +3.5% (to consider additional strategic actions), SNY +3.5% (still checking), VIP +2.6% (Russian appeals court overturns $2.8 bln Telenor fine over Vimpelcom according to Telenor lawyers - Reuters)... Analyst comments: SPF +10.7% (upgraded to Buy at UBS).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CALM -9.1% (light volume)... Other news: ROH -22.0% (issues statement on merger with Dow; reiterates that the completion of the K-Dow Petrochemicals partnership is not a closing condition for the proposed merger between Rohm and Haas and Dow), DOW -10.0% (receives notification of Kuwait decision to cancel K-Dow partnership; also downgraded to Equal Weight at Barclays Capital), AGNC -5.6% (trading ex-dividend), RCL -2.7% and CCL -2.1% (modest weakness with crude higher). -
kardinal,
võiksid kogu artikli siia copyda. Ma ei taha ennast registreerida. -
Try a Baltic exchange
By Mike Southon
Published: December 27 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 27 2008 02:00
Here is a suggestion to make the best of the current tough times: Why not move to Estonia?
I was there recently, explaining how to cope with the current recession. Last time the UK went through one, in 1991, the Estonians were preoccupied with gaining independence from the Soviet Union. The Estonians came through the process as a new nation, keen to share their skills with the outside world.
The country's mathematicians were able to leverage new internet technology without the archaic legacy systems, and the Estonian government resolved to make itself an e-country and put everything on the web.
Today, the Estonians have an entirely connected country, with a transparent legislature and everyone happy to submit their tax returns online.
Identity cards were seamlessly introduced, not just because of the population's experience of surveillance. The selling point was that they also worked as tickets on public transport.
Mobile phones are used for almost everything in Estonia, including a public parking system now being adopted by local authorities around the world.
Estonia's dynamic business environment was able to catalyse several international successes, including Skype, the internet-based voice service.
The country is also doing better in the recession than many other countries. It has suffered a slump in property prices, as a consequence of the previous boom, and many people have lost money. But the wise are biding their time, waiting for the market to recover.
Estonia is a very small country, with around 1.5m people, and so does not represent a big market for the major players. However, the country's size also provides one important advantage - you can get things done.
I had a very agreeable chat over a beer with Estonia's president Toomas Hendrik Ilves. He explained that Estonia had fared better in the recent crisis as its banks are owned by Swedish and Finnish institutions, which suffered back in 1991, and have consequently been much more risk-averse.
He gave me details of the country's low fixed rate of corporation tax and 100 per cent relief for companies that reinvest. He suggested that people from the UK might want to base their companies in Estonia as it is an EU member.
Healthcare, for example, is very well run. A recent report said the UK's National Health Service has fallen down the league table below Estonia, and highlighted concerns over the costs and problems with the £12bn patient record system currently under development.
I met an Estonian doctor, Madis Tiik, who has been looking at the same challenge in his country. Oblivious to suggestions that it was impossible to implement, he just got on and did it - the system is being rolled out next year.
The UK database is much larger, and there are many different data items - such as text-based records and X-rays. But Friends Reunited and Facebook seem to be managing with their large volumes of users. And with simple document and image standards and XML, you can put anything in a web browser.
Perhaps this is why many successful entrepreneurs move to islands or small countries. They remember the tribal atmosphere of the early days of their start-up, and having status in this community can make things happen, if you know the right people.
If this is the case, then would you not prefer to be in a small country such as Estonia, where you can get things done, and make a real difference? -
Muideks, tänased aktsiatehingud USA börsil lähevad juba järgmise aasta kirja. Ehk täna müüdud aktsiapakk kajastub T+3 tõttu 2. jaanuaril 2009. aastal ning saadud kasum või kahjum tuleb deklareerida 2009. aasta tuludeklaratsioonis 2010. aasta 31. märtsiks ehk siis täpselt 15 kuu pärast.
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damn, ja mina mõtlesin, et saan täna saadud kahjumid ka sellesse aastasse lükata. Kui juba siis juba! Rikub järgmise aasta pildi ära...
pettunud -
Täna siis taaskord üks väga madala kauplemisaktiivsusega päev, mistõttu ei soovita liikumiste põhjustesse väga sügavalt süübida. Money flow suunda on õhukesel turul väga raske ette näha ja seda põhjendada, muutes liikumised võrdlemisi suvaliseks.
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Ja siia juurde: RICK miss 0,09 EPS ja downside FY08
