Börsipäev 8. jaanuar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Alustame päeva eile ilmunud Citi 2009. aasta globaalse väljavaatega. Olgu veel öeldud, et Citi soovitus Euroopa (ex-UK), UK ja CEEMEA suhtes on overweight, USA kohta neutral ning Jaapani kohta underweight.
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Huvitav on veel see, et Citi prognoosis globaalseks majanduskavuks kolme kuu eest 2.4%, tänaseks on ootused langenud 0.5%-ni. Ei tule meelde, kas keegi negatiivset numbrit ka pakkunud on, aga kui asjad hullemaks pöörduvad, võib see täitsa reaalne oht olla.
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Kui nafta kukkus eile -11.5% ja oli ka hommikul veel punane, siis tundub, et Iisraeli Lähis-Ida konflikt ei taha raugeda. Liibanonist olevat tulistatud rakette Iisraeli pihta, mille kohta Liibanon ütleb, et tegu on tundmatu grupiga. Suurenev segadus aitas naftal punasest territooriumist välja ronida ning protsendi jagu plussi jõuda.
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COST Costco reports December same store sales decreased 4.0% vs -4.2% Briefing.com consensus (50.12 )
Oleks võinud ka hullemini minna... -
UK tänase intressimäärade otsuse kohta:
Facing what many economists expect to be the deepest recession since World War II, the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee is seen as virtually certain to drop the central bank's key lending rate to the lowest level since its founding in 1694.
Kellel elav kujutlusvõime, see võib ette kujutada, kuidas Queen Mary II ajal nõukogu kokku tuli, kivist mõõka välja tõmbava King Arthuri pildi ees austusest põlvili laskus ning seejärel intressimäärade saatuse üle arutlema hakkas.
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Ja siis tõsteti intressimäärad lauale ja pandi Arthur neid mõõgaga pooleks raiuma? : )
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Eile õhtul teatas 2009. aasta tootmismahtude vähendamisest kunagi ka LHV Pro idee olnud kivisöetootja Peabody Energy (BTU).
Kui Morgan Stanley langetas tootmismahtude vähendamise peale aktsia hinnasihti $38-ni (hetkel maksab BTU $25.5) ning arvab, et aktsiasse sisenemiseks on parem võimalus peale Q4 tulemusi, siis Jeffries alandas küll EPSi prognoose, kuid soovitab aktsiat jätkuvalt osta (hinnasiht $60):
Our $60 price target reflects an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x on our 2010 forecasted EBITDA of $2.1 billion and 12x our 2010 EPS forecast, valuations within historical valuation ranges.
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http://www.fox40.com/pages/landing_local_headlines/?Porn-Industry-Moguls-Ask-Congress-For-Ba=1&blockID=179523&feedID=190
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good one, Graafik
Larry Flint pole oma teravust kaotanud -
Bank of England cuts rates half point to 1.5%, lowest in over 300 years
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Initial Claims 467K vs 545K consensus
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USA turud alustavad päeva aktsiaindeksite 0.4% kuni 0.8%lise miinusega ning nafta on eilsele 11.5%lisele langusele jätkuks börsipäeva alguseks veel 2% jagu allapoole liikunud.
Saksamaa DAX -1.52%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.57%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.44%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.83%
Venemaa MICEX N/A (börs suletud)
Poola WIG -1.15%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.93%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -3.81%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.39%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.84%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.11%
Tai Set 50 +0.45%
India Sensex 30 N/A (börs suletud)
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In the Crucible
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/8/2009 8:16 AM EST
Keep high aspirations, moderate expectations and small needs.
-- H. Stein
The biggest hurdle this market faces is unrealistic expectations. It isn't that market players are expecting that the economy is going to do well, but that they are hopeful that we have already priced in the worst and that our worst fears are already realized. The bullish argument is that everyone already knows how bad it is, and that that will keep us from falling too much further.
But is that really true? Are market players already sufficiently discounting the problems we face? Unfortunately there is probably some start-of-the-year optimism along with high hopes for our new president that is causing us to overlook how difficult it is going to be to deal with a trillion-dollar deficit, unemployment approaching 10% and negative economic growth.
Even if you do think that things aren't that bad and that pessimism is too high, the final arbiter, as always, will be the market action. We have been seeing things slowly inch higher since the end of November, and then we had a classic Santa Claus Rally to give us a nice little boost of enthusiasm over the past week or so. Yesterday we gave back a good chunk of the gains, but we didn't penetrate the support levels that have been developing.
So now we are at the testing point. We have some bad news from retailers this morning, with Wal-Mart cutting its expectations and plenty of others looking dismal as well. The Bank of England is cutting rates, as it is obviously concerned about slow growth and deflation. The energy sector has a downgrade from Citigroup, and it is tough to find any positives.
We were doing a fairly good job of ignoring bad news over the past week, but that may simply have been the triumph of seasonality over reality. News like we have from Wal-Mart this morning and the very important employment report tomorrow will determine if the indices hold support and give us proof that the worst has already been priced in to some degree. Even if it isn't, we are going to have a bear-market rally at some point that is going to get folks excited.
The good news is that it sure is gloomy out there and yet we are still holding support. The bad news is that there isn't much good news.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: SHLD +10.9%, URBN +10.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Cowen), BLUD +8.5%, GME +8.4%, RBN +7.2%, ONNN +4.7%, EMC +4.7%, ARO +4.2%, HOTT +2.7%... M&A news: SWIM +41.6% (thinkorswim to be acquired by AMTD in a cash and stock deal valued at approximately $606 mln), CRXL +3.5% (Crucell N.V. and Wyeth confirm in discussion on a combination of the two companies)... Select gold related names ticking higher despite lower spot prices: HMY +3.2% , GFI +2.9% , GOLD +1.5%... Other news: ANDS +14.7% (announces results from the first cohort of an ongoing Phase Ib clinical trial of ANA598; also initiated with Buy at Merriman), RBS +4.3% (considers sale of 2 bln pounds Bank of Chinabank stake - FT), SYT +3.2% (still checking)... Analyst comments: MAR +2.8% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), DE +1.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/same store sales: ISRG -17.1% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham and downgraded to Hold at Lazard Capital), JCG -14.5%, PMTC -12.5% (light volume), CHS -9.4% (also announces that David Dyer appointed President and CEO), SONC -8.8%, WMT -8.2%, ANF -8.2%, CAH -7.5%, AEO -5.8%, WDFC -5.4%, M -5.2%, JWN -4.2%, MTW -4.2% (light volume), BBBY -2.2%... M&A news: AMTD -7.0% (thinkorswim to be acquired by AMTD in a cash and stock deal valued at approximately $606 mln)... Select financial related names trading lower: AXA -3.6%, ING -3.2%, DB -2.7%, WFC -1.7%, GS -1.4%, JPM -1.0%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness with lower spot prices: RTP -6.9%, AAUK -6.1%, BBL -3.6%, BHP -3.0%... Select drybulk shippers trading lower: EGLE -7.8%, NM -6.3%, DSX -5.5%, GNK -3.0%... Other news: AOB -11.7% (discloses real estate purchase in 8-K filing; also downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), NAT -7.3% (announces 3 mln share public offering), MPW -6.9% (announces public offering of 10.0 mln shares of common stock), DGX -1.8% (Lab acknowledges problem with Vitamin D test - NY Times), PGN -1.3% (announces the upsizing and pricing of common stock offering)... Analyst comments: PRXI -20.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Merriman), UDR -7.3% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), JAVA -5.3% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), VNO -4.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), TCK -4.6% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), SWN -3.1% (downgraded to Market Weight at Weisel), CELG -2.9% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein), PHM -2.9% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), ICE -1.8% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche), MRO -1.4% (downgraded to Below Average at Caris & Company). -
Mille puhul EUR ja GBP sellise ralli lahti lõid?
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Ei tea küll kuidas hommikune Wal-Marti (WMT) poolne prognooside langetamine siin foorumis kajastamisel kahe silma vahele jäi, kuid täidan selle lünga nüüd. Eile oli Inteli päev, täna saab au endale Wal-Mart.
Wal-Mart expects fourth quarter earnings to range from $0.91 to $0.94 per share, which is below the consensus estimate of $1.06 per share. The company previously forecast earnings between $1.03 and $1.07 per share. Wal-Mart reported December same-store sales increased 1.7%. -
On kellegil seisukoht nafta liikumise kohta järgmise 2 kuu jooksul?
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XOM Exxon Mobil CEO says despite economic downturn company committed to investments to meet future energy demand.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) kasutab oma väga tugevat bilansilehte ning teeb investeeringuid tulevikku ajal, mil teised konkurendid neid väga agaralt vähendavad. Usun, et see on ülimalt õige samm XOMi juhtkonna poolt pikemas perspektiivis ning võimalik, et ühel hetkel üritatakse ka energiasektorist konkurente üle võtma hakata. Exxon on vaieldamatult väga huvitav ettevõte, kuid investeerimiseks ootaksin madalamaid tasemeid. -
Homme tund aega enne turu avanemist teatatakse detsembrikuu tööjõuraporti number. Hirmud koondamiste suuruse ees on suured ning täna räägib Cramer, et kuuleb numbreid juba 800 000 töökoha kaotamisest detsembris. Ametlik konsensus jääb täpselt 500 000 peale.
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November Consumer Credit -$7.9 bln vs $0.0 bln consensus, prior revised to -$2.8 bln from -$3.5 bln
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Fed bought $10.2 bln of agency mortgage bonds Jan 5-7
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Press Conference on Mortgage Bankruptcy Code:
Have re-written the code to include primary residence... Citigroup has asked for provisions would only apply to existing mortgages; says people in court need to contact the bank at least 10 days prior to filing for bankruptcy... speaker notes that C was the first financial institution to step forward; expects other institutions to follow suit... notion is to 'create an environment of negotiations'... -
Peale turgude sulgemist avaldab kvartalitulemused APOL ning ka paarisendine EPSi ootuste ületamine peaks aktsia alla tooma. Seni on tõus olnud kiire ning investorite ootused väga kõrgele kruvitud. Pro all ei pidanud tulemuste peale panustamist siiski otstarbekaks, samas on aktsia jõudnud eelmiste tippude alla ning riski-tulu suhe küllalt atraktiivne.
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Apollo Group beats by $0.14, beats on revs
aktsia üle 82 -
Üsna kõva beat ikkagi, ootusi suudeti seekord kuhjaga täita.
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Sarnaselt DV'ga näitab ka APOL väga ilusaid numbreid ning aktsia iigub järelturul jõudsalt ülespoole, olles hetkel pealpool $83.5. Tulemused on ilusad, kuid kas piisavalt ilusad, et homsel kauplemispäeval ei tekiks sell the news reaktsiooni? Igaljuhul tuleme idee juurde homme tagasi.
Tulemustest jääb üks huvitav lause silma - As compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008, bad debt expense increased 60 basis points, as a percentage of net revenue, due, in part, to the risk of collecting aged receivables given the current economic environment. -
Polnud paha päeva lõpp USA-s. Korraldame sel puhul Baltikumis homme reboundi ka?
