Börsipäev 13. jaanuar
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Gazprom pumpab Euroopasse taas gaasi ning nafta hind liigub selle peale üha allapoole. Hetkel ollakse lähedal 24. detsembri mitme aasta madalamaile hinnale $35.125. Praegu kaubeldakse eilsega võrreldes 3.5% miinuses $36.3 peal. Aktsiaindeksite muutus eilsega võrreldes nullis.
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Panen siia praeguse turu ootuse USA SKP'lt, mille Bloomberg sai 59 majandusspetsialisti 5. kuni 12. jaanuaril tehtud prognooside keskmise võtmisel:
Q4 08 ootus -5%
Q1 09 ootus -3%
Q2 09 ootus -0.8%
2009 ootus -1.5% -
Vaadates Eesti börsi, hakkavad dividendi aktsiad hinda minema.
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Citi alandab First Solari (FSLR) hinnasihti $205-lt $170-ni ning soovitust langetatakse "osta" pealt "hoiale".
While FQ4:08 (Dec) results are apt to be okay and FSLR still best-in-class, stock up ~60% off lows and checks leave us more concerned about three key factors: 1) near-term inventory risk, 2) secular margin (and thus stock multiple) compression, and 3) sector supply overhang that is apt to persist through 2010 even in the face of forthcoming gov’t stimulus package. Slightly slower capacity ramp moving through ’09 offset by better F/X leaving ’09 EPS largely unch’d at ~$6.78 but cut C2010 from $10.35 to $8.88. Target cut $205 to $170 (19x C2010 EPS (0.75x 4-year PEG)), downside to $90, upside to $200.
Kuigi FSLR kaupleb allpool uut Citi hinnasihti, võiks väike meeldetuletus (midagi uut pole) koos punase turuga aktsiale allamüüki tähendada.
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BMO Capital Markets langetab Alcoa soovitust eilsete tulemustejärgselt Underweight peale. Hoolimata konsensusootusele allajäämisest, kaupleb aktsia ise eilse sulgumishinna juures, 10 senti alla $10.
Alcoa downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets -
November Trade Balance -$40.4 bln vs -$51.0 bln consensus, prior revised to -$56.7 bln from -$57.2 bln
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need apgeidid ja daungreidid on ühed toredad asjad. abn amro appgreidis 6. jaanuaril say buy peale...
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WN, Amro ug oma ajastuses on küll halenaljakas, kuid muid järeldusi sellest teha ei maksaks. Tegemist ei ole audiitorfirmaga.
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USA kaubandusbilansi raport on päris huvitav. Oodatult ei tulenenud väiksem defitsiit suurema ekspordi arvelt (võrreldes oktoobriga vähenes), vaid järsult langenud impordi tõttu. Raport ise siin.
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Kui oktoobris oli nafta hind ca $80 kuni $65, siis novembris oli nafta hind $70 kuni $50. Detsembris oli hind veelgi madalam ($50 kuni $35) ning see peaks aitama ka detsembrikuu defitsiiti veelgi koomamale tõmmata.
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Saksamaa DAX -1.42%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.75%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.45%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -2.13%
Venemaa MICEX +0.26%
Poola WIG -1.76%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -4.79%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.17%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.94%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -2.46%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.08%
Tai Set 50 -4.97%
India Sensex 30 -0.42%
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A Light Day Can Be Ugly
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/12/2009 4:16 PM EST
Aside from another little flurry of trading action in the closing minutes, it was a downright ugly day. Yes, volume was light, but I'm afraid that may be a function of little new money coming into the market and may not be that much of a positive. Unfortunately, lower volume may mean we are losing participants rather than just folks sitting on the sidelines. There is no way to know for sure, but this light volume is not something giving me a lot of comfort.
We are still holding some key technical support levels and have gotten a bit oversold now, but the danger of breaking lower is growing. We may see a little bounce first, but earnings season could easily be the catalyst that causes the last support levels to hold. The November lows are still quite a ways off, and we'll be way too oversold to hit them quickly, but the lows of December could easily be breached in the near term.
This market was much worse today than it looked, especially the way financials broke down. The big banks are low-priced, and therefore the big losses were not reflected in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
I really wish the media would stop using the DJIA as the primary indicator for the stock market. They way it is calculated, it assumes that you are not holding an equal amount of each stock in the index but that you hold widely different size positions based solely on price levels.
For example, at current prices the DJIA assumes that you hold 15 times more IBM (IBM) than Citigroup (C) , because IBM is $85 and Citibank is $5.60. Thus, on a day like today when Citi is down 17%, the impact isn't that great, because it is mostly offset by a gain in IBM of 1% or so. That is not how a normal portfolio is generally constructed, so the DJIA isn't really reflective of anything meaningful.
Nonetheless, it is just plain ugly out there, and while we are a bit oversold, there certainly isn't any reason to be building long-term positions. There is nothing wrong with cash in this market.
Have a good evening. I'll see you tomorrow.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: LIZ +9.4% (also completes amendment and extension of bank revolving credit facility), INFY +5.9%, VAR +4.3%, HUM +2.1%... M&A news: TARG +102.6% (Medicines Company to acquire Targanta Therapeutics for $2.00 in cash; shareholders may also receive contingent cash payments)... Other news: ZGEN +49.4% (Zymogenetics and Bristol-Myers enter global collaboration on novel Hepatitis C Compound), CTDC +12.5% (receives $36 mln credit line from China Construction Bank), ELN +12.0% (to review strategic business alternatives; also upgraded to Buy at Canaccord), FCEL +9.3% (awarded $30.2 mln contract to further develop clean coal-based power plant in Phase II of Energy Department Program), TNH +6.1% (light volume, Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), DNDN +3.4% (still checking), APC +2.1% (WSJ reports Anadarko Petro is winner in US royalty case)... Analyst comments: ATML +4.0% (initiated with Buy at Goldman - DJ), SLW +2.3% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), MAC +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), KMB +1.8% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill), SAP +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch), LLL +1.2% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CPHD -15.2%, LXK -8.3% (light volume), NVDA -7.3%, ONB -6.1%, WAT -2.2%, KLAC -2.1% (target lowered to $22 at Friedman Billings)... Select financials showing weakness: RBS -12.9% (to raise up to $2.37 bln from Bank of China sale, according to sources - DJ), PUK -10.3%, BCS -10.1% (Nigel Rudd, Deputy Chairman, to step down - DJ), C -9.3% (Citigroup deal to incur $4 bln tax bill - FT), UBS -8.2%, AEG -7.0%, ING -5.8%, CIT -5.2%, CS -5.1%, STD -4.5% (Banco Santander Central in probe over ties to Madoff - WSJ), BAC -3.8%, HBC -3.2%, MS -2.1% (Morgan Stanley and Citigroup are looking at setting aside between $2 billion and $3 billion to keep top brokers - NY Post), WFC -2.1% (downgraded to Sell at Argus), GS -1.2%... Select oil/gas related names trading lower with modest weakness in crude: HOC -4.7%, BP -3.7%, PTR -2.5%, TOT -2.2%, PBR -2.0%, RDS.A -1.8%, BTU -1.3% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets)... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: RTP -4.3%, BBL -4.1%, MT -3.0%, AAUK -2.8%, RIO -2.0%... Other news: NHI -5.5% (discloses it has received notice that an NHI borrower filed an adversary proceeding complaint against NHI in the bankruptcy case), WLP -5.0% (issues statement on CMS action; Medicare Advantage and Medicare Part D products have been suspended until remediation efforts have been completed; also downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), SNE -4.8% (may post $1.1 bln operating loss - Reuters.com)... Analyst comments: PLD -7.8% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), STX -5.5% (downgraded to Sell at Collins Stewart), ERIC -5.2% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), GLW -4.1% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill), NWL -4.1% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), FSLR -3.9% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), DE -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), PCG -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ). -
Kommertskinnisvaraga tagatud väärtpaberitele ka turgu juude.
Feds Kohn says new TARP funds could be used to provide financing for commercial MBS -
Põhjus APOLi tänaseks 5%liseks miinuseks peitub siin. Kardetakse, et ülikool on üritamas vaikset viisi andmetega manipuleerida.
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Mina chatis
