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Börsipäev 14. jaanuar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Tänast börsipäeva alustaks teatega, et Yahoo (YHOO) otsingud uue CEO järele on lõpuks lahenduse leidnud. Uueks CEOks nimetatakse Carol Bartz, kes oli Autodeski juht aastail 1992-2006. Investorid Caroli ametisse nimetamise peale päris pöördesse pole näinud, kuid eilne päev suudeti ikkagi järelturul üle 3%lises plussis lõpetada.
  • India börsi suurettevõtte Satyami skandaal jätkub ning täna on üles korjatud aruannetest info, et 6 kuud enne fiktiivsete $1 miljardi suuruste varade ilmsikstulemist müüsid ettevõtte juhid aktsiaid $1.8 miljoni eest. Satyami aktsiaid müüs juhtkond kuue kuu jooksul rohkem, kui Sensex indeksi 30 ettevõttes kokku. Väärtpaberituru järelvalve arenguriikides veel nõrgal tasemel.

  • Vaatab, kuhu kanti YHOO orderid tulema hakkavad, aga kui peaks kõrgelt avanema, siis ma betiks täna fade'ile.
    Miks? Eile umbes 12:50 paiku, kui WSJ teatas, et Bartz valitakse CEO-ks, tegi aktsia küll spike'i, aga tuli kiiresti alla. Miks siis mõni tund hiljem ametliku uudise peale YHOO järelturul uuesti üles läks? Tegu oli ikkagi WSJ teatega, mitte suvalise rumor milliga.

    Kuigi valdav osa analüütikuid ja industry inimesi on üsna sillas Bartzist ja ütlevad, et ta on just õige inimene, siis leidub ka kriitikuid. Mõni väljavõte arvamustest:

    WSJ Heard on the Street: "at first glance, Yahoo's choice of Carol Bartz isn't exactly inspiring."

    Eric Jackson, president of Ironfire Capital LLC and an outspoken critic of Yahoo's management, said Bartz's appointment pointed to "more of the same" at Yahoo because of her limited Internet experience and existing relationship with Yang. Bartz "will be operating at a different scale, and the industry relevance is also obviously missing. I think she is definitely going to look to Yang and the old board for guidance," said Jackson, who recently sold most of his group's Yahoo shares because of growing concerns about the lack of direction at the company.

    An executive for a major website publisher considers the Bartz appointment "puzzling," adding "It signals to all of us, that Yahoo doesn't know what kind of kind of company it is and wants to be. Autodesk is a B2B software company. She's not a media person. That's important. A large portion of Yahoo's revenue comes from from ads. If they chose Bartz because they couldn't get one of the roster of internet industry all-stars like (former AOL CEO/Velocity Partners' Jonathan) Miller or (News Corp COO/President Peter) Chernin, well, then that's just pathetic.

    Vähemalt osa Yahoo töötajaid pole ka erilises vaimustuses uuest CEO-st:
    One employee said word of Bartz's appointment was poorly received in his department. "Everyone around here is dumbfounded.
    Remember what happened to Titanic?" said the employee, who requested anonymity.

    Eks väikse riskina jääb üles tehing Microsoftiga, aga tõenäoliselt täielikku ülevõtmist ei tule ning search diili jaoks on Yahoo aktsia minu arvates lähiperspektiivis enam-vähem õiglaselt hinnatud juba niigi.
  • Igaks juhuks mainin, et tegu pole high conviction treidimisideega (veel) :) Hea meelega tahaks näha, kas ja mida mõnel suuremal analüüsimajal öelda on. Ei saa välistada, et uue CEO saamine siiski toob kergenduslaine hedge fundide hulgas ning MSFT ülevõtu ajal soetatud positsioonide keskmistamise.
  • fun, pigem oli vastupidi. Esimene reaktsioon oli ka vaatlejate pootl, et Bartz ei ole eriti hea valik. Alles hiljem hakati avalikult rohkem rääkima, et positiivse poole pealt saab välja tuua Bartzi loomingulisust, kindlat juhtimist ning track recordit. Võib-olla ongi väike tuulutus hea. MSFT ülevõtmine on tõepoolest päevakorrast maas, kuid searh deali tegemisel kaupleks aktsia ikka oluliselt kõrgemal. Pigem on küsimus selles, et tõenäosus on vähenemas.
  • Aga mõne maja kommentaarid on siin:

    Jeffries:

    We find several of her experiences at Autodesk directly relevant to YHOO's current situation, namely: a) no-nonsense approach to restructuring and cost control, b) ability to deal with a strong culture and instil operational discipline, c) ability to boost employee moral, plug the talent drain and improve investor confidence, and d) tenacity to withstand the pressures of displeased investors in difficult situations. These skills will come in handy as she wades through the challenges of managing Yahoo!'s eroding moral, disgruntled investors and, dealing with potential strategic choices (MSFT and AOL), selling important assets and fixing YHOO's struggling display ad business.• Having said that, it remains to be seen whether her experience leading a traditional software company prepared her well to lead thelargest display ad provider and second largest search player —two areas she does not seem to have had exposure to before. Her lack of Internet experience is a risk, particularly considering who the competitors are.

    Citi:

    The Bartz Pick Likely Steers YHOO Towards A Growth Or Options Strategy — We have viewed the company’s strategic choices as a) Running the company for Growth (recognizing the company’s still considerable Internet assets and brand strength); b) Running the company for Cash (given approx $3.5B in net cash and significant off-balance-sheet assets); or c) Running the company for Options (looking for a buyer for all or part of the company). Bartz doesn’t strike us a Cash CEO. Our history with YHOO is that new CEO (Terry Semel in ’01) are given a lot of leeway to run the company. We expect Bartz to have similar leeway. But we don’t expect any major strategic decisions to be made immediately, per Bartz’s request for “freakin’ breathing room.”

    Morgan Stanley on insenerisoskuste osas teisel arvamusel :)

    We have known Carol for years and think she's a strong choice. She's known for being tough, fair, a good team builder and leaving her ego at the door. Given her 30+ years working in the technology industry, she knows great engineers plus a strong product vision and keen customer focus are key underpinnings for successful technology companies. As a CEO she has an impressive track record of creating shareholder value.

  • Mulle on ka silma jäänud, et teda kiidetakse kui head teambuilderit. "No M&A experience" on päris paljud öelnud... Tundub, et Bartzi kasu tuleb heal juhul pikas perspektiivis, lähiajal pole YHOO aktsionäridel millegi üle nagu rõõmustada. Kõvasti restruktureerimisi, kulude kärpimisi, konkurentidega tegelemine jne, kiireid diile ja kiireid kasumeid ei paista.
  • Aga Euroopas saavad pangad ja kaevandajad peksa.
  • Deutsche Banki kasumihoiatus on ikka üsna nõrk. Eks neid tuleb veelgi.
  • Huvitav, kas meil pärast seda kriisi kommertspangandus kah alles on? :-D
  • HSBC upgrades AU Optronics (AUO) to Overweight from Neutral and raised their tgt to $38.50 from $23.90.

    Päris kõva upgrade, eriti arvestades aktsia hinda. Tagamaid siiski ei tea.
  • Briefing vahendab veel Friedmani arvamust YHOO uue CEO Bartzi kohta:

    YHOO Yahoo!: Bartz is as good a hire as Yahoo could expect; deal with Microsoft not imminent

    Friedman Billings notes that YHOO appointed Carol Bartz, the former CEO and current executive chairman of Autodesk (ADSK), as CEO. Firm believes that Bartz is as good a hire as Yahoo could expect. Bartz should bring the same organizational strengths that she used to focus and align ADSK as its CEO. While the lack of internet experience will be cited as a deficiency, there was never going to be a perfect candidate. The lack of focus and organization at Yahoo cover the majority of the co's addressable challenges in our opinion, playing to those strengths. Firm interprets Bartz' parting message on the conference call that what Yahoo needs most is "breathing room" as an indication that no deal with Microsoft (MSFT) is imminent. While investors may optimistically hope that Bartz will "clean up Yahoo" for sale, firm believes the majority of the board and senior mgmt continue to see YHOO's future as a stand alone co and that she was hired with the long term in mind.
  • December Retail Sales ex-auto -3.1% vs -1.4% consensus, prior revised to -2.5% from -1.6%
    December Retail Sales -2.7% vs -1.2% consensus, prior revised to -2.1% from -1.8%

    Jube.
  • Tekib muidugi küsimus, et kui analüütikud prognoosivad 4. kvartalilt SKP langust 5% jagu.... teatakse, et jõulumüük oli aastakümnete mannetuim, et miks siis jaemüügi osas üldse ollakse väljas -1.2%liste prognoosidega...
  • Konsensus. Aritmeetiline keskmine seast ja käost. Suhteliselt väärtusetu infokild tegelikult.
  • Jah, aga loeb see, et nii mõnelgi juhul (makro puhul rohkem) suhtub turg sea ja käö kooslusesse üsna tõsiselt. Ning vastavalt ka reageerib.
  • Kas nagu näiteks jobs reporti puhul - et marginaalne erinevus konsensusest ja turud kohe tankimas? Ok, ok - ma niisama norin. :-D
  • USA aktsiaturud alustavad päeva mõrult - S&P500le miinust kogunenud 2% jagu, millest 1.5% oli olemas juba enne jaemüügiraporti numbrite avaldamist.

    Saksamaa DAX -3.44%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -3.05%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -4.12%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 -2.98%

    Venemaa MICEX -2.47%

    Poola WIG -1.94%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.29%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.27%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +3.52%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +3.09%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.68%

    Tai Set 50 +1.66%

    India Sensex 30 +3.30%

  • The Obstacles Are Getting Worse
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/14/2009 7:38 AM EST


    It still holds true that man is most uniquely human when he turns obstacles into opportunities.
    -- Eric Hoffer

    The market continues to be greeted each morning with news that confirms the fact that we are mired in the worst economic environment since the 1920s. Most everyone knows that already, but it may not really hit us until we are forced to confront this daily diet of negativity. Talking about how bad things are is quite different than actually having to deal with them day after day.

    The news flow this morning continues to be quite dire. Ireland's prime minister commented that his country may need help from the International Monetary Fund; Deutsche Bank (DB) anticipates a loss of 4.8 billion euros, more than previously expected; and Citigroup (C) plans to cut its size by about one-third. We have retail sales numbers for December coming up, which are unlikely to be very cheerful, and we even have a couple of bankruptcies filed by Goody's and Nortel (NT) .

    It is unrelentingly negative, and it is taking a toll on those who have been a bit too sanguine about how easily the market might price it all in. We heard quite often back in December that banks in particular had pretty much announced the worst and would begin to heal. That has certainly changed in the last week or so as Band of America (BAC) and Citi have been battered.

    The question for us now is whether this series of obstacles we are seeing lately is going to be discounted by the market and help us find at least some temporary support. The positive aspect of this is that investors are so hungry for any positive that it doesn't take much to spark a little bit of a bounce.

    Finding a bottom when there is as much extreme negative sentiment as there is now is not easy. So often, negativity is viewed subjectively -- folks want to believe a turn is near simply because they are tired and worn out by how bad the market has been. That isn't very scientific and can easily backfire.

    If you are going to try to use sentiment to try to catch a market turn, it is important to also consider the technical conditions of the indices. The good news is that the major indices are still holding above the late-December lows. The S&P 500 can fall to around 850 and still be OK. It certainly will be a precarious pattern with risk to the downside, but with the level of negativity and the degree to which we are oversold, it may be supportive of some sort of bounce.

    Unfortunately, a bounce at this point doesn't do much to improve the longer-term picture. We are still in an ugly bear market. If your time frames aren't that short, you should simply respect that fact and stand aside. We'll have some countertrend trade opportunities, but this is for the very active short-term trader -- not for those who are looking to rebuild longer-term portfolios. The time for that is a ways down the road.

    Better-than-expected mortgage refis have helped perk us up a little bit, but I suspect retail sales are going to be chilling.
    ------------------------------
    Ülespoole avaneavad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AEPI +15.6% and EXFO +13.7% (very light volume)... Other news: EROC +26.6% (announces hedge transactions and its intention to maintain its current distribution level of $1.64 per unit on an annual basis), YHOO +3.2% (confirms Carol Bartz Joins as Chief Executive Officer), LEN +2.9% (CNBC reports that LEN is filing a lawsuit against Barry Minkow alleging libel and extortion), DNDN +2.8% (still checking), SQNM +2.8% (Sequenom, The Immune Tolerance Institute and the UCSF to develop advanced diagnostic test for severe combined immunodeficiency in newborns)... Analyst comments: STEM +6.7% (initiated with Speculative Buy at Dawson James), SOHU +2.0% (assumes coverage and upgrades to Outperform at Oppenheimer).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: STSA -22.5%, UA -18.0%, DB -10.8%, BG -9.7%, RACK -7.4%, TIF -6.8%, FNB -4.8%, LLTC -3.8%, KCP -3.4%... Select financial related names trading lower: BCS -14.4% ( says 2,100 jobs at risk in UK unit - DJ), CS -7.1%, RBS -7.1% (sells Bank of China shares for GBP1.6 bln - DJ), AIB -6.3%, C -5.8% (Citigroup and Morgan Stanley confirm they will form wealth management business through joint venture), HBC -5.7% (trades lower in Europe on $30 billion capital raising worry - Reuters.com), STD -5.5% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), UBS -4.8%, AXP -3.6%, ABB -3.5%, USB -3.1%, JPM -2.5%, WFC -2.4%, BAC -1.4% (ests cut at Ladenburg), GS -1.3%, MS -1.2% (Citigroup and Morgan Stanley confirm they will form wealth management business through joint venture)... Select agriculture related names trading lower following disappointing BG guidance: ADM -4.1%, POT -3.6%, CF -3.5%, MOS -3.1%, AGU -3.0%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness despite higher spot prices: RTP -6.9% (announces that Jim Leng will be appointed as Chairman of the Boards - Reuters), AAUK -4.5% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), BBL -3.5%, RIO -2.0%... Select oil/gas related names trading lower: NOV -3.8% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), RDS.A -3.7%, RIG -3.4% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), TOT -2.9%, PBR -2.4%, BP -2.2%, XOM -1.0%... Other news: NT -75.0% (files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy in Delaware - DJ), CLF -7.8% (provides '08 North American Iron Ore sales volume update; pre-tax earnings in '08 would be lower by approx $50 mln), SUSS -4.6% (provides fourth quarter and full year 2008 operating results update and initial 2009), NOK -4.1% and PHG -3.9% (still checking), SAP -2.8% (still checking for anything specific), FORM -1.8% (announces cost reduction plan; to reduce workforce by 22%)... Analyst comments: SI -8.8% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), PCU -4.7% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), STX -4.4% (downgraded to Hold at Argus), SII -3.8% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), BX -3.6% (downgraded to Underweight at Barclays), STP -2.8% (downgraded to Underperform at Friedman Billings and downgraded to Neutral at AmTech), CAT -2.7% (Hearing Tier 1 out cautious on CAT), EBAY -2.3% (initiated with Sell at Collins Stewart), HNZ -1.4% (downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein), INTC -1.2% (initiated with a Sell at Auriga U.S.A; tgt $10).
  • no on alles punane päev..., õnneks päev pole veel möödas...
  • Nõrgad makronumbrid mõlemal pool suurt lompi ning langevad finantsturud aitavad homme ECB'l intressimäärasid ehk pisut kergekäelisemalt langetada.
  • Lobiseme chatis ka või? Mul üks treid seal ette näidata
  • Nafta hind läheneb oma 24. detsembri põhjale $35.125 peal. Hetkel must kuld 5.5% punases ning barreli hinnaks $35.7.
  • Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (GT)-le osteti eelmine nädal 11.7k lepingut 7.5 calle, hetkeks on hind kukkunud juba $5.64 peale. Siit võib tulla üsna huvitav liikumine üles.
    GT Jan 09 7.5 calls are seeing heavy interest with earnings expected some time in mid-Jan (volume: 11.7K, open int: 3080, implied vol: ~100%, prev day implied vol: 90%);
  • Fed's Stern says Economic 'Improvement Is Not Too Far Off'; Future Recovery Will Be Modest In Its Pace
    Fed's Stern says Recession To Last At Least Two More Quarters

    Ja turg ronib kergelt kõrgemale!
  • Fed's Stern says early stages of US economic recovery to be subdued - Reuters
    'Ample time' to withdraw excess liquidity, Fed firmly committed to long-run price stability.
  • Beige Book says lending activity down; lending conditions tighter
    Fed's Beige book: Layoffs Continue In Most Districts;Wages Contained
    Beige Book says retail sales weak over holiday season
    Fed's Beige Book: Credit quality remains a concern
  • Nafta futuurid jõudnud plusspoolele, mis on turu jaoks üpriski positiivne. Kui suudetakse päeva lõpuks kergesse tõusu minna annab see ka aktsiatele tuge.
  • Üks positiivne uudis Monsanto aktsionäridele. Monsanto (MON) Board approves 10% dividend increase to $0.265 from $0.24
  • Dow (INDU) posting sharp, triple digit losses heading into final hour of trading, currently @ 8203 -245, or -2.9%

    Final Hour INDU % Gainers:

    NONE

    Final Hour INDU % Decliners:

    C -22.3%, AXP -5.5%, GE -5.1%, CAT -4.7%, GM -4.4%, AA -4.2%, DD -4.1%

    NYSE TRIN @ 2.4

    NYSE A/D Line @ -2525 

  • Morgan Stanley and Citigroup trading operation will be named CitiMorg
  • AlariÜ
    Tule homme chati, lobiseme seal
  • RIMM oleks muidugi parem valik olnud.
  • Long natuke PALM, viimase aja momo võib hoogu saada selle peale, kui konkurendil distraction.
  • Vot PALM oleks olnud hea play. Briefingus AAPL halt 16:32, aga PALM sõudis üles 16:36. Eeh, hea värk.
  • 16:36 tuli uudis :) Enne seda kauples RIMM Apple kasumihoiatuse hirmus alla üldsegi.
  • Steve Jobs tervise tõttu 5 kuud tööst eemal!
  • Homme hommik ei ole just kõige ilusam. Lisaks Jobsi põntsule on ka BAC järelturul omadega pehmelt öeldes metsas.
  • Tavapärane börsiralli tuleb noh.

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