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Börsipäev 22. jaanuar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Ka Hiina majandus näitab jahtumise märke - kolmdanda kvartali 9% kasvust jäi neljandas kvartalis järgi 6.8%. Tegemist on seitsme aasta madalaima tasemega ning üldjoontes vastas ootustele. Kasvu aeglustumise peamine põhjus on ekspordi vähenemine.
  • Tulemuste tabel taaskord uueneb ning kuna esilehelt nihkub ta üha tahapoole, panen siia foorumisse jätkuvalt lingi, et oleks seda kergem üles leida. 

  • Peale eilseid tulemusi on enamus maju Apple (AAPL) osas positiivselt meelestatud.

    Citi soovitab aktsiat jätkuvalt osta ning hinnasihti tõstetakse varasema $132 pealt $147-ni. Ühtlasi tõsteti ka kolme aasta EPSi prognoose, kuna tootmise sisendhinnad on langenud, samal ajal pole aga müügihindu langetatud ning üha suurem iPhone'de osakaal tõstab marginaale. Citi usib, et Apple suudab 2009. aastal ületada juhtkonna poolt prognoositud 30-31% suurust brutokasumi marginaali.

    This margin upside (along with more modest revenue upside) drove 4CQ08 EPS of $1.78 versus our estimate of $1.42, consensus of $1.39 and mgmt guidance of $1.06-1.35.

    Deutsche Bank tõstab samuti EPSi prognoose, kuid jätab hinnasihhi $150 juurde, soovitus on jätkuvalt "osta". Guidance'i kohta öeldaks järgnevat:

    Apple provided standard conservative guidance of revs of $7.6-8B and EPS of $0.90-1.00 (Street at $8.2B/$1.13) and GM’s of 32.5%. We believe management’s wide range of guidance reflects realistic macro concerns. However, as highlighted below we remind investors of Apple’s track record of beating its own guidance on average (past 11 quarters) with 7% revenue upside and 37% EPS upside.

    Merrill Lynch viitab samuti iPhone'de marginaalide tugevusele ning seda hoolimata keskmise müügihinna langusest $35 võrra. Kuigi Mac'ide müük aeglustus eelmise kvartali 21% pealt 9%, on see ometi kõrgem kui tööstuse nullkasv. Merrilli hinnasiht on $110, ostusoovitus jääb jõusse.

    Morgan Stanley on vähem optimistlik, soovitus "equal-weight" ning hinnasiht $95. Tulemused toetavad aktsiat küll lühiajaliselt, kuid pikemas perspektiivis mängib nõrk majandus oma osa, mistõttu tasuks hoida ettevaatlikku joont.

    Even with gross margins above guidance for F2H09 (31% vs. about 30% guide) we remain below the consensus F09 EPS forecast in light of a more conservative unit outlook including flat Macs, 15% decline in iPods and 15% growth in iPhones.

    Oppenheimer jättis soovituse "osta" peale, hinnasihti langetati 15. jaanuaril $135 pealt $120-ni, see jäi jõusse.

    Analüütikud on üldiselt positiivsed ning kuna aktsia on enne tulemusi korralikult langenud, võib päeva algus hetkel +8.6%-le veel lisa tuua. Kaugemat tulevikku silmas pidades nõustuks pigem Morganiga, küll tarbija nõrkus mõjuma hakkab.

  • Nokia (NOK) EPS EUR 0.15, analüütikud olid oodanud EUR 0.26. Aktsia -7.3%.
  • Potash (POT) reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $2.56 per share, $0.28 better than the First Call consensus of $2.28; revenues rose 30.7% year/year to $1.87 bln vs the $1.85 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.70-1.00 vs. $1.94 consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $10.00-12.00 vs. $12.21 consensus. Co said, While we expect slow demand in all major potash markets early in 2009, the pace of sales should intensify in the second quarter. In North America, because farmers deferred fertilizer purchases in the fall when at least 40 percent of potash applications traditionally occur, we expect above-normal spring applications. 

    Hoolimata nõrgast prognoosist, on aktsia kergesse plussi roninud. Põhjuseks eelkõige see lause:

    This should draw inventories substantially lower by the end of the spring season and lead to considerable restocking of the system in the second half of the year.... 

  • krdi nok keeras kogu ralli jätkamise tuksi
  • Citi langetab Kellogi (K) ostusoovitust "hoia" peale, viidatakse turu nõrkusele ning ebasoodsatele valuutakurssidele. 2009. aasta EPSi ootusi alandatakse $3.10-ni ning hinnasihti $47-ni (eelmine $58).
  • Kui see nii on, siis... AUCH!

    The Chinese Devil Wears Prada: Why 0% Growth is the New Size 6.8%
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    Nouriel Roubini | Jan 22, 2009

    The Chinese came out today with their 6.8% estimate of Q4 2008 growth. China publishes its quarterly GDP figure on a year over year basis, differently from the U.S. and most other countries that publish their GDP growth figure on a quarter on quarter annualized seasonally adjusted (SAAR) basis.

    When growth is slowing down sharply the Chinese way to measure GDP is highly misleading as quarter on quarter growth may be negative while the year over year figure is positive and high because of the momentum of the previous quarters’ positive growth.

    Indeed if one were to convert the 6.8% y-o-y figure in the more standard quarter over quarter annualized figure Chinese growth in Q4 would be close to zero if not negative.

    Other data confirm that China was in a borderline recession in Q4 and that it may be in an outright recession in Q1: production of electricity plunged 7.9% in y-o-y basis; the Chinese PMI has been below 50 and close to 40 for five months now.

    And with manufacturing being about 40% of GDP , manufacturing is certainly in a sharp recession (negative growth) and the overall economy may be close to a recession

    So the 6.8% growth was actually a 0% growth – or possibly negative growth – in Q4; and the Q1 figures look even worse. So China is in a recession regardless of what the highly massaged official numbers claim.
  • Initial Claims 589K vs 543K consensus, prior revised to 527K from 524K

    December Building Permits 549K vs 600K consensus, prior revised to 615K from 616K
    December Housing Starts 550K vs 605K consensus, prior revised to 651K from 625K
  • Microsoft prelim $0.47 vs $0.49 First Call consensus; revs $16.63 bln vs $17.08 bln First Call consensus
    Microsoft says it is no longer giving guidance for rest of fiscal year
    Ühtlasi koondatakse 5000 töötajat.

    MSFT -9% ning muu tehnoloogia koos Applega ka järgi andnud. Turg tugevalt punases.
  • Ehk ei tasu tulemuste eelselt torkida ettevõtteid, millelt oodatakse töötajate koondamisi...
  • MSFTi pressiteatest võib leida järgmise lause:

    Microsoft will eliminate up to 5,000 jobs in R&D, marketing, sales, finance, legal, HR, and IT over the next 18 months, including 1,400 jobs today. 

    Antud segmentides kärbitakse üha rohkem tööjõudu, mistõttu kaotavad sellest ka tööjõudu vahendavad ettevõtted. LHV Pro viimane lühike idee Robert Half International (RHI) sobib väga hästi panustamaks negatiivsele trendile. 

  • USA aktsiaturud alustavad MSFT tulemuste tõttu päeva miinuspoolelt. S&P500 indeks -1.8% ja Nasdaq -1.7%.

    Saksamaa DAX -0.66%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.59%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.19%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.43%

    Venemaa MICEX -3.46%

    Poola WIG -3.66%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.90%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.59%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.00%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +2.18%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.75%

    Tai Set 50 +1.92%

    India Sensex 30 +0.39%

  • The Financials Are Still in Peril
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/22/2009 8:21 AM EST

    Bank failures are caused by depositors who don't deposit enough money to cover losses due to mismanagement.
    -- Dan Quayle

    When one of the best days in the last couple of months is preceded by the one of the worst days, it makes for some tricky trading unless you have a time frame of less than a day. After swings down and up in the Dow of around 300 points, we are back to where we started Friday.

    The big question now is whether market players will build on good earnings news from Apple (AAPL) and the reversal in financials or whether this was just a temporary respite that will trap some overly hopeful bulls once again.

    The most likely driving force is going to be earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG) , which are due to report tonight and GE (GE) tomorrow morning. One problem with the very good Apple report is that it tends to raise expectations a bit, and that may not be a good thing. Apple may very well be the outlier that has always done a very good job of managing its earnings by keep expectations extremely low.

    The much more important issue for this market is likely to be the financial sector. We had some insider buying at Citigroup (C) and JPMorgan (JPM) shoring up confidence yesterday, but there is no way you can look at the charts of any of the major banks and not be worried that they are barely holding on by their fingertips. The group obviously made for a very good "dead cat" bounce yesterday, but there is nothing fundamental occurring to indicate that an end to the problems plaguing the world's financial organizations is at an end.

    Moves like we had yesterday are pretty typical of bear markets. We see things become tremendously gloomy and then a little spark has folks rushing back as they hope that this really is the big turn that is sure to come. When the news doesn't confirm that there is some major change in the character of the economy and the market, we fizzle once again, and even more folks feel discouraged and give up on the market.

    That is the process that plays out over and over in a bear market. It is often referred to as "sliding down the slope of hope." The surges of hope that inevitably occur just help to blind us to the reality of the overall trend.

    Let's look at that major trend. There can be no question that all the major indices are still struggling to find their lows. They are, for now, holding above the lows we saw in November, but after the ugly start this month, there is nothing that indicates a change in trend is going to start imminently.

    So the game plan remains the same. Play those big intraday swings if that is your style, but respect the fact that the bear is alive and well and the major indices are still in ugly downtrends. There is no stock leadership out there and no reason to be building positions. That won't stop the pundits from making their usual proclamations about how some major change is coming, but for those of us who like to apply common sense, it is pretty obvious that this is not a market we want to embrace.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NVEC +14.3%, CMCO +9.9%, THC +9.7%, NITE +9.4% (light volume), AAPL +9.0%, ESI +8.2%, LUV +7.4%, BBT +5.3%, FFIV +4.5%, NE +3.0%, HXL +2.5% (light volume), KEY +1.6%, NTGR +1.1% (light volume)... M&A news: IWOV +33.4% (Interwoven announces definitive agreement to be acquired by Autonomy for $16.20/share in cash)... Other news: LYG +22.0% (the recently enlarged group following its takeover of mortgage lender HBOS, rose 0.7% overseas), STEM +10.1% and GERN +5.7% (still checking), RCL +3.0% (still checking for anything specific), SAY +2.7% (Satyam eyes funding; L&T says no rescue offered - Reuters), NCX +2.0% (responds to comments and questions regarding financing; co continues to have full access to its credit facilities), APOL +1.0% (up in sympathy with ESI)... Analyst comments: MAC +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ECLP -30.3% (also downgraded to Neutral at Piper, downgraded to Hold at Auriga and downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies), DOX -15.5% (also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer, downgraded to Hold at Wedbush Morgan and downgraded to Hold at Cantor), SHW -13.4%, HBAN -11.7%, CNH -10.5%, STX -10.4%, SNE -9.7%, EBAY -8.9% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer), MSFT -8.7% (no longer giving guidance for rest of fiscal year), NOK -8.4%, STI -8.0%, DRYS -6.9% (also announces significant reductions in its capital expenditures and suspension of the dividend effective for the fourth quarter 2008), PVH -5.6% (light volume), BNI -4.9%, AUO -4.9% (light volume), KOP -4.3%, TSM -4.2% (light volume), NRP -3.2% (light volume), LMT -2.5%, POT -2.3%... Select drybulk shippers trading lower in sympathy with DRYS guidance and news: GNK -12.1%, EGLE -11.4%, PRGN -9.0%, TBSI -8.8%, EXM -8.0%, DSX -7.7%, NM -6.8%, FRO -5.1%... Select financials pulling back: BCS -14.5% (Barclays may lose control to Gulf investors - Daily Telegraph), C -7.6% (names Richard Parsons as Chairman of the Board of Directors), USB -6.3%, MET -6.2%, PRU -6.0%, COF -5.6%, ING -5.5%, GS -3.6%, BAC -3.6% (Bank of America, Merrill Lynch declare preferred dividends), MS -3.4%, WFC -3.0%, JPM -2.7% (JP Morgan Chase CEO bought 500K shares at $22.92 on 1/16; EVP bought 3.6K shares at $22.44-22.45 on 1/16), BK -2.4%, DB -2.1%, PNC -1.9%, NTRS -1.8%, AXP -1.5%... Select oil/gas related names trading lower with weakness in crude: STO -4.4%, BP -3.8%, RDS.A -3.4%, TOT -3.1%, CVX -1.0%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness with lower spot prices: BBL -6.3%, BHP -4.9%, HMY -4.3%, RIO -4.0%, MT -3.6%, AAUK -3.0%, RTP -2.7%, GOLD -2.5%, ABX -1.7%, GFI -1.4%... Select communications related names trading lower following NOK results and BT guidance: BT -13.6% (Performance for the quarter will be impacted by issues in Global Service division - DJ), PALM -9.4%, STM -4.8%, MOT -4.7%, TEF -3.8%, VOD -3.2%, FTE -3.0%, QCOM -3.0%, RIMM -2.6%, TI -1.9%, DT -1.9%... Other news: ETP -3.2% (announces 5 mln share offering and discloses that it is currently in discussions regarding the prospect of its construction of a large pipeline), AMZN -1.1% (down in sympathy with EBAY), DELL -3.5%, HPQ -1.8% and IBM -1.6% (trading lower following MSFT results)... Analyst comments: CERN -11.0% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer and downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), LOGI -6.7% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), PETM -3.2% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche), FCX -3.0% (downgraded to Underperform at Friedman Billings), WYE -2.4% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), QSII -1.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy on valuation at Auriga).
  • Cramer on tänase Hiina SKP numbri peale (mis jäi ootustele alla) ostmas pikaajalisse portfelli sealse turu liikumist kajastavat börsil kauveldavat fondi FXI'd.
  • Kuigi AAPL suudab oma avatugevust hoida, siis teised tulemusteavaldajad NOK, EBAY ja MSFT kauplevad kõik -10% lähedal. Peale turgude sulgemist avaldavad oma tulemused Google (GOOG) ja AMD (AMD), saab näha, millist liini need jätkavad.
  • Ka nafta märtsikuu leping on visalt $40ga võitlust pidamas. Tänase 6%lise languse põhjuseks bearish varude raport:

    DOE Inventory Data: Builds across the board once again, including much larger-than-expected increases in crude and gas. Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 6100K (consensus is a build of 1400K); gasoline inventories had a build of 6475K (consensus is a build of 1800K); distillate inventories had a build of 790K (consensus is a build of 500K).
  • Bank of America (BAC) had lost confidence in Thain according to source; BofA CEO concluded Thain showed 'poor judgment' - WSJ
  • Halvad uudised MSFT ja NOKi tulemuste näol on päeva jooksul üles ostetud. Tehnoloogiasektor plussis, S&P500 nullis ning Apple üritab ronida üle $90 piiri. Kui suudetakse plussis päev lõpetada, siis looks see järgnevateks päevadeks hea baasi.
  • Ameeriklastel on ikka pikad juhtmed. Pank võetakse üle, riik taob jama kinni, kuid ühte meest hoitakse ikka veel paar kuud justkui igaks-juhuks tööl. :-D
  • Pikad juhtmed ja hirmul on suured silmad. Andke abi kui on aktsiad hinnas siis kõik toovad ainult argumente et tasub osta jne. Hetkel on õige aeg osta arvan mina ja kuu aja pärast on häbi kui õigus polnud.
  • Kes mõistatab, millest Karum6mm räägib, siis vastuseks on Merrill Lynchi ülevõtt Bank of America poolt mõnda aega tagasi ning siis tänane teade, et endine Merrilli juht Thain lasti lahti...
  • Google prelim $5.10, ex items vs $4.95 First Call consensus; revs $4.22 bln vs $4.12 bln First Call consensus
  • Vahelduseks on kvartali pressiteadetest rõõmustav ka taolisi lauseid lugeda:

    Google performed well in the fourth quarter, despite an increasingly difficult economic environment. Search query growth was strong, revenues were up in most verticals, and we successfully contained costs

  • Capital One (COF) prelim ($1.59), may not compare to $0.33 First Call consensus; revs $3.17 bln vs $4.24 bln First Call consensus
    Lisab finantsi ebakindlust.
  • Kinnisvara firma ostetakse ära.
    FOR Forestar Real Estate: Received an unsolicited letter from Holland Ware in which he stated that he is prepared to make a cash tender offer for any and all shares at $15 per share (9.24 -0.76)
    Nendel Mkt.cap 300M.
    Kas siit võiks oletada, et kinnisvaraga tegelejad on juba liiga odavad?

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