Börsipäev 27. jaanuar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Kandsind eileõhtused tulemused äsja ka tabelisse ning täiendan seda jooksvalt. Tabel asub siin. Tänased olulisemad nimed on BMY, DAL, DD, HSY, BTU, X, VLO, VZ eelturul ning JAVA, YHOO järelturul.
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Mõned mõtted Standard & Poor'silt LHV lühikeseks müügi soovituse Robert Half Intrernationali (RHI) (ettevõte tegeleb tööjõu vahendamisega) suunas:
We expect RHI to record much lower profits in coming periods, in light of the weak U.S. economy and our outlook for a significant downturn in labor markets in a number of the Western European markets served by the company. As such, we believe that RHI will be reporting negative earnings comparisons for at least several quarters. Based on these factors and valuation considerations, we think the shares are considerably overvalued.
The shares recently traded at about 20X our 2009 EPS forecast, which is well above the company's typical trough level. Based on ourbelief that RHI is in the midst of a significant business downturn through at least the next year, we think a valuation closer to its trough is merited. We have a 12-month target price of $10, or about 12X our 2009 EPS estimate.
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Citi on tõstmas soovitust Sun Healthcare Groupile (SUNH), mis tegeleb haigetele hooldusteenuste ja põetamise pakkumisega nii enda raviasutustes kui ka kodustes tingimustes. Citi annab ettevõttele ostusoovituse (varasem soovitus "hoia") ning lisab aktsia 2009. aasta Top Pickide hulka. Hinnasiht jäetakse muutmata kujul $14 peale.
Analüüsis viidatakse, et turg on aktsiasse diskonteerinud suuremad Medicare'i ja Medicaidi (tervishoiuprogrammid sotsiaalselt vähem kindlustatule) eelarvekärped, kui on tõenäoline.
Our analysis of state budgets leads us to believe that SUNH's 2009 Medicaid yield is likely to be in the 2-3% range (vs apparent market expectations of a negative yield - each 100bp represents 10% EPS). Finally, the 46% decline in the stock since September has materially changed our view of risk/reward.
Citi ootab, et SUNH avaldab veebruari alguses 2009. aasta prognoosi, mis aktsiapõhise kasumi osas peaks vastama vähemalt turu oodatud $1.12-le.
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IBM saatis eelmisel nädalal oma töötajatele ca 2800 koondamisteadet. Eile õhtul hoogustusid jutud, et IBM võib veelgi ja suuremas ulatuses oma töötajaskonda vähendama hakata.
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Merrill Lynch on hakanud katma Swedbanki aktsiat ning täna välja tulnud raporti järgi soovitatakse ettevaatlikku suhtumist. Nendepoolseks hinnasihiks 29SEKi.
Lahatakse ka Baltikumis toimuvat ning mõned päris huvitavad laused võib sealt leida:
"Today, our base case assumes that Baltic countries enter a long period of sustained midsingle digit negative GDP growth. /-/. However, our valuation work assumes a 33% probability of a much more severe downturn – driven by devaluation. /-/. As we have said previously, a Baltic devaluation is not our base case scenario. Indeed, with the IMF agreeing to lend money to Latvia without forcing acurrency devaluation, we believe the likelihood of devaluation is lower todaythan it was in December."
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No mis jutt see nüüd on? Devalveerine pidi ju konkurentsivõimet ja majanduskasvu igati soodustama! :-)
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paras huumor on see Merill Lynch. Iseennast pole enam reaalselt olemaski ja oma panga ajasid põhja, aga prognoosijad on kõvad :) Tee kõigepealt enda maja korda !
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Merrill Lynch lays off inexperienced brokers-WSJ
The wealth management unit of Bank of America's (BAC) Merrill Lynch unit laid off several hundred rookie brokers -
ehk siis eesti keelde tõlgituna: "Merril Lynch vallandas mitusada laps-maaklerit" :)
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rookie tolgendub antud kontekstis siiski - algaja, kollanokk ja igas konstekstis, kui selle ule moelda.
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U.S. Steel (X) beats by $1.29, beats on revs - reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $2.00 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $1.29 better than the First Call consensus of $0.71; revenues rose 0.7% year/year to $4.57 bln vs the $4.27 bln consensus.
Peabody Energy (BTU) beats by $0.37, beats on revs - reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.11 per share, $0.37 better than the First Call consensus of $0.74; revenues rose 61.0% year/year to $1.88 bln vs the $1.71 bln consensus. Co said, "While the world faces significant near-term economic challenges, Peabody's middle- to long-term outlook remains positive," said Boyce. "We believe that inventories will rebalance, steel demand will recover, new coal plants will come on line and existing plants will run at higher utilization, while difficult geology and lack of capital access will deplete supply and limit infrastructure development.
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Täna soovitus pangajama lühikeseks kuni nädalalõpp, kuigi juba aga TA spetsid, ja ehk ei ole kavalam tururust.Vale koht
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tarts, olen nõus sinuga.
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November S&P/CaseShiller Composite-20 y/y -18.18% vs -18.40% consensus, prior -18.06%
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S&P/CaseShiller Composite paigalseis novembris päris huvitav kui vaadata Existing Homes Sales ja Median price kukkumist samal ajal
Category DEC NOV OCT SEP AUG
Existing Home Sales 4.74M 4.45M 4.91M 5.14M 4.91M
Months Supply 9.3 11.2 10.3 10.0 10.6
Median Price Y/Y -15.3% -13.2% -11.3% -9.0% -9.5% -
Eelmise aasta oktoobri ja novembri vahel oli indeksi langus päris terav, seetõttu ka suhtelise muutuse paigalseis. Mediaani kiirem langus on äkki foreclosure'ite suurema osakaalu tõttu loogiline.
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Pangajamaga lühikeseks ? Sektoris, mis on viimase 3 nädalaga kukkunud 30-60%. :o Ajastus ...
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Tagantjärgi ka Sharki kommentaar veel siia:
No Conviction
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/27/2009 9:09 AM EST
Then indecision brings its own delays,
And days are lost lamenting o'er lost days.
Are you in earnest? Seize this very minute;
What you can do, or dream you can, begin it.
-- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
The market has been struggling to make up its mind whether it wants to believe there is enough bad news priced in that it can manage a bit of a bear-market rally or whether there is still sufficient uncertainty that we still need a further shakeout. We've had mostly bad news lately, but it hasn't been quite enough to crack the market. On the other hand, there have been some decent earnings report from companies such as Apple (AAPL) , IBM (IBM) and Google (GOOG) , but they haven't been enough to deliver any real confidence.
Market players also can't seem to make up their mind about the likelihood that the stimulus and bailout plans will really make much of a difference. These things are already well anticipated, even if not fully formulated, and the market isn't acting as if it believes that our economic problems are going to be brought to an end as these economic bills are passed.
The indices still look OK technically, but they are vulnerable. They are holding support levels and have some foundation for an upside move, but volume has been lackluster and we've been lacking any real conviction.
Overall, it is a very indecisive market. The bulls want to believe that the worst is out there and that we are pricing it in. The bears argue that we still haven't fully embraced the very severe problems we are facing.
Both sides can make pretty good arguments, but the final arbiter will always be the market. At best, all the market is suggesting right now is that we may manage some sort of short-lived bounce. There is nothing in the recent action or the technical setup that will serve as a launching pad for a powerful bear-market rally. In fact, the lack of energy is the sort of thing that leads to shorting and/or selling into strength.
The bulls still have a slight edge technically, but it is extremely fragile. In addition, traders have been more and more focused on daytrading, and that is killing most attempted moves to the upside. In this market, the only way to make money is to do some fast flips, and that kills momentum.
It is an indecisive market with a little underlying support that could easily collapse if the bulls don't begin to show more resolve. Let stocks do the talking, and what I'm hearing isn't too convincing.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SLG +10.2% (light volume), NFLX +8.0%, X +7.5%, MCK +6.8%, ENR +6.7%, PLXT +6.3% (light volume), BTU +6.2%, AXP +6.0% (also upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Calyon), ZRAN +5.8% (also upgraded to Buy at Collins Stewart), SI +5.2%, TXN +5.1% (also upgraded to Hold at Collins Stewart and upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Global Crown Capital), MTXX +5.0%, AKS +4.8%, ZION +4.8%, CR +4.5% (light volume), TLAB +4.2%, BJS +3.2% (light volume), BMY +2.6%, VZ +1.0%, DD +1.0%... M&A news: CVTX +48.0% (Astellas proposes to acquire CV Therapeutics for $16 per share in cash)... Select financial names showing strength: LYG +14.4%, RBS +13.6%, BAC +3.7%, COF +3.4%, JPM +2.1%, GS +2.0% (Director bought 15.3K shares at $66.18-67.12 on 01/22), BCS +1.8%, WFC +1.7%... Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: RTP +3.6%, BBL +3.2%, AU +2.9%, HMY +2.3%, BHP +1.3%, GOLD +1.2%... Other news: GLBL +8.4% (awarded US$75 mln project in SE Asia), SAY +7.9% (has received adequate bidding interest for co buy - DJ), NM +6.4% (co's publicly traded master limited partnership, NMM, declared dividend of $0.40, up from $0.385), SOL +5.9% (signs RMB800 mln project loan agreement with China Construction Bank for sichuan polysilicon production facility), AFL +5.0% (modestly rebounding from past week's 40%+drop), NOK +3.8% (still checking for anything specific), CRXL +2.3% (modestly rebounding from past 2 day 20%+drop)... Analyst comments: ARMH +5.6% (upgraded to Buy at UBS).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ASH -5.4%, GLW -5.3%, MHP -5.3%, NMR -3.9%, EMC -3.6%, DAL -3.4%, VMW -3.2% (also downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), , VLO -2.9%, AMGN -2.0%... Other news: STEM -10.7% (pulling back from the past trading week's 40% surge higher), WLL -10.3% (announces 8 mln share public offering of common stock), GNK -7.9% (amends $1.4 bln credit facility; also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), FED -7.6% (announces workforce reductions and issuance of cease and desist orders by the Office of Thrift Supervision), TC -7.2% (intends to reduce molybdenum production in 2009 from levels that were previously planned), GERN -5.9% (modestly pulling back from past week's 30% surge higher), SLW -5.2% (announces C$250 million bought deal financing), CEF -4.7% (announces that it plans to offer Class A Shares under its existing shelf prospectus), DOW -4.5% (Dow Chemical CEO on CNBC says the market is telling them the dividend is too high)... Analyst comments: LAYN -6.3% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), FLIR -3.7% (ests and tgt cut at AmTech following contract loss to RTN), HGSI -3.2% (initiated with Sell at ThinkEquity), SPWRA -1.8% (downgraded to Underperform at PacCrest), KSS -1.0% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus). -
January Consumer Confidence 37.7 vs 39.0 consensus, prior 38.0
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Briefing vahendab CNETi, mille info kohaselt võib Amazon teatada uuest Kindle'st juba veebruari alguses:
CNET News.com reports a few days ago there was a column written on the website speculating when Amazon's new Kindle might arrive and it might have got the answer this morning. The website just received an invite "to an important Amazon.com press conference" on the morning of Monday, February 9 in New York.
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Nahville Business Journal vahendab,et 90% USA ettevõtetest kärbib kulusid ning koguni 56% uuritud ettevõtetest teeb seda läbi koondamiste.
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DV DeVRY prelim $0.59 vs $0.59 First Call consensus; revs $369.6 mln vs $364.23 mln First Call consensus
Tegu siis haridusasutuste sektorist APOLi konkurendiga. Ootused sektoris on kõrged ning need numbrid peaksid küll pettumuse tooma. -
Ka Kanada üritab fiskaalmeetoditega majandust elavdada:
Canada govt unveils C$39.9 bln 2-yr fiscal stimulus plan. -
Moody'sel on jälle General Electricu ja tolle kapitaliüksuse reiting hambus.
Moody's Reviews Ge, Gecc Aaa Long-Term Ratings For Possible Downgrade -
Yahoo! prelim $0.17 vs $0.13 First Call consensus; revs $1.38 bln vs $1.37 bln First Call consensus
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CNBC reports sources say the Obama administration is close to announcing a so-called "bad bank" plan, possibly announcing the plan early next week
Says the govt could pay more than current market prices for the securities. Says idea of bad bank is gaining momentum on Capital Hill.
Antud jutt ja lootus finantssektori restruktureerimise ees on futuuridele ca 1% tõusu juurde lisanud. -
Noh, Rootsi tegi need "bad bangid" omalajal. Nüüd on USA ka liigutama hakanud, siiani loobiti niisama raha.
