Börsipäev 28. jaanuar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Täna on oodata küllalt põnevat börsipäeva. Eelkõige on pilgud suunatud Föderaalreservile, kellelt oodatakse peale intressimäärade langetamist nullini uusi ja innovaatilisi meetmeid majandusraskuste lahendamiseks.
Kvartalitulemused teatavad täna enne turgu teiste seas AT & T (T), Boeing (BA), ConocoPhilips (COP), Novartis (NVS) ning peale turgude sulgemist Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), Ryland Group (RYL), Robert Half International (RHI) ja Starbucks (SBUX). Kinnitamata andmetel peaks ka Philip Morris (PM) enne turgu tulemused teatavaks tegema. -
Kui intressimäära langetatakse kuidas ja kui suureks hindate mõju eur/usd kursile? Kui suureks? Kas tohiks paluda arvamust mõne hea valuutaanalüütiku osas, palun soovitage mõnda arvestatavat/usaldusväärset linki või nime keda tasub kuulata?
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Yahoo (YHOO) eilne konverentsikõne oli suhteliselt optimistlik ning aktsia tõusis järelturul 5%. Mingit fundamentaalset muutust pole toimunud, kuid kasumi osas suudeti analüütikute ootusi ületada. Ettevõte on raskes keskkonnas suutnud toime tulla paremini, kui kardeti, kuid ette vaadates ei julgenud juhtkond nõrga nähtavuse tõttu terve aasta prognoose anda. Küll aga anti prognoos esimese kvartali kohta, milles oodatakse tulusid $1.527-1.725 miljardit (koos TACiga) ning tegevuskasumit $365-415 miljonit. Tulude osas tähendaks see yoy 11% langust ning jääks korralikult alla ka analüütikute ootustele, kuid uue tegevjuhi käe all oli konservatiivne prognoos oodatud (kas just nii konservatiivne, on iseküsimus).
Konverentiskõnel ei soovinud CEO Bartz Microsofti-poolsest otsingumootori ostmisest eriti rääkida, öeldes vaid, et ei tulnud Yahoo'sse ettevõtet müüma. Samas ei kinnitatud ka vastupidist. Pigem võis välja lugeda, et seda ei tehta rutakalt ning märguandena Microsoftile, et üksust ei müüda kopikate eest.
Citi jätab soovituse "hoia" peale, hinnasiht jääb muutmatuks $15 juures, kuid kasumiprognoose tõmmatakse alla.
YHOO still faces deteriorating asset risk. Fundamentals are worsening, as the company’s Q1 outlook for double-digit EBITDA Y/Y decline attests. We believe the issues are Macro and Competition, NOT structural. So a top-notch CEO – which is how we would describe Bartz – could effect a turnaround, although we think the odds are long.
Jeffries tõmbab alla 2009. aasta prognoose ning langetab hinnasihti varasema $20 pealt $18-ni.
We believe that Panama has not only improved Yahoo!'s search yield but has also helped abate Yahoo!'s recurring loss of search market share to Google. We note that Yahoo! has maintained its search market share in the 20-21% range over the past several months.
Sama meelt on ka Soleil, kes langetab FY09 EPSi prognoose varasem $0.40 pealt $0.31-ni, jätab jõusse "hoia" soovituse ning hinnasihi $12. Negatiivse poole pealt viidatakse uue tegevjuhi kohanemisajale ning nõrgale makrokeskkonnale.
The new CEO must have time to settle in before drastic actions can be taken. The competitive environment in Yahoo’s businesses is worsening and we expect competition to be fierce and well funded. YHOO morale is low with accelerating employee defections. >90% of YHOO’s revenue is advertising related and 2009 is shaping up to be the worst ad recession in 20 years.
Pessimistlikult on meelestatud ka Wunderlicht, kes seekord saab foorumipinda hea kokkuvõtva lõigu eest:
Yahoo!'s search business continues to lose market share to Google. Yahoo!'s display advertising segment is challenged by greater fragmentation and less relevance to advertisers at online properties such as yahoo.com. Advertisers are seeking more effective targeting by way of website placement in display ad programs.
Morgan Stanley alandas hinnasihi $11-ni (varasem $12) ning jättis jõusse "hoia" soovituse.
We remain on the sidelines on shares of Yahoo! with an $11 price target. With visibility low on display ads, weakness/declines in display ads, lower click volumes in paid search, and a new CEO (which is still ramping up on the company), we think that revenues and profits will remain under pressure in 2009. While we think the new CEO's technology background should help re-position the company and business strategy, clearly the fix at Yahoo! may take several years to unfold.
Kokkuvõttes on Yahoo tulemused pigem kesised - üle ootuste kvartal, kuid nõrk prognoos. Kui suurt rõhku ei pandaks uuele tegevjuhile ning õhus ei püsiks MSFTi otsingumootori ostusoov, oleks aktsia järelturul tõenäoliselt miinuses kaubelnud.
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helena, Föderaalreserv ei saa enam intressimäärasid langetada, sest need on sisuliselt nullis. Dollarikursi muutus sõltub eelkõige sellest, missuguseid uusi vahendeid välja pakutakse. Kui minnakse seda teed, et suures ulatuses hakatakse riigivõlakirju ja hüpoteeklaene kokku ostma või suurendatakse muul moel oma bilanssi, on see dollarile kahtlemata negatiivne. Kuna bilansi suurendamine on vältimatu, siis on küsimus pigem selle ulatuses.
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Enne turgu tulemused avaldavalt Boeingult (BA) oodatakse tugevat kasumi langust, kuna töötajate kahekuuline streik katkestas kolmanda kvartali lõpus ja neljanda kvartali alguses lennukite tootmise. Investorid keskenduvad veel Boeingu prognoosidele, kuna peale detsembris neljandat korda edasi lükatud Boeing 787 turule jõudmist pole juhtkond mingit tulevikunägemust pakkunud. Lisaks tuntakse murest, et lennukompaniid lükkavad lennukite soetamist edasi, mistõttu Boeing peab tootmist kärpima või hakkama klientidele vastumeelselt finantseerimist pakkuma. Analüütikud ootavad EPSi $0.78, kvartal varem teeniti $0.96 ning 2007. aasta neljandas kvartalis $1.36.
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Mis arvate interneti aktsiatesse investeerimisest või nt CALL optsioonist (kas on neil nt GOOG mingi ostu soovitus praegu?)?
Ootan ideed ja komentaare? -
Samal ajal, kui Coca-Cola ja Pepsi peavad Venemaal aastakümnete taha ulatuvat, kuid endiselt tasavägist võitlust, on huvitav vaadata sealseid Coca poolt müüdavaid tooteid.
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renessanss, keda sa "nende" all mõtled?
Google tulemused olid head ja aktsia võiks lähiajal pigem tõusta, kuid optsioonidest võiks sellise küsimusepüstituse juures mööda vaadata. Kui ei ole kindlat nägemust aktsia liikumise suhtes, on väga raske ka optsiooni täitmishinda ja horisonti valida. Sellest saab vaid kahju tulla. -
Tulemuste tabel möödunud aasta 4. kvartali tulemustega muudkui uueneb. Eilsed reageeringud olid enamjaolt positiivsed. Link tabelile on siin.
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Tulemustest rääkides, siis eile jäi silma statistika, mille kohaselt 52% seni tulemused avaldanud S&P 500 ettevõtetest on suutnud ootusi ületada, 8% ootustele vastanud ning 40% ootustele alla jäänud. Kuidas selle teadmisega edasi elada, ei oska öelda. :)
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nende all mõtlesin BIDU, SOHU, YHOO, EBAY, tahaks veel Teie arvamust kas volatiilsus jääb samaks või suureneb, siis võiks nt nii CALL kui ka PUT osta igale poole
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Madis, ajalooliselt on üldiselt olnud nii, et ca 65% ettevõtteid ületab ootusi (kuna analüütikud teevad konservatiivseid prognoose, et mitte overshootida). Seega 52% tähendab, et ootused on olnud liialt kõrged...
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renessanss,
VIX on praegu ikkagi 40 punkti peal. Pikemas perspektiivis ei saa selline volatiilsus olla püsiv. Kuid samas kui rääkida mõnest kuust, siis mina ei välistaks selle püsimist tänasel tasemel või miks mitte ka kasvamist.
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renessanss, pool naljaga olgu öeldud, et võrreldes möödunud kuudega on volatiilsus tulemuste hooajal üllatavalt väike.
Peale tulemusi volatiilsus loomulikult väheneb, nii et sinu pakutud strateegia EBAY ja GOOG puhul enam ei tööta. SOHU ja BIDU straddle oleks huvitavam, panustades ainult volatiilsuse kasvule (mõlemad avaldavad tulemused veebruari alguses), aga seda tasuks teha pigem nädal enne tulemusi. Lisaks on see küllalt kulukas ning tavainvestori jaoks on delta-hedgemine ka keeruline. Kui aga üle tulemuste soovida straddlet hoida, siis sõltub jällegi kõik hinnast. Nii SOHU kui ka BIDU võivad olla kõvad liikujad, aga turg teab seda ja volatiilsus tõuseb vastavalt. -
Antud Bloombergi artikkel aitab ehk paremini mõista detsembri olemasolevate majade oodatust paremat müüginumbrit. Kinnisvara on läinud foreclosure'ite näol oksjonihinnaga müüki (detsembris müüdud majadest 45% tulenesid foreclosure'itest).
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Tarts ja Madis Toomsalu teie eilne pangadussektori lühikeseks müük nädala lõpuni - paistab tänase seisuga suure ämbrina.
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On keegi hiljuti ostnud endale Toyota Vitzi/Yarise?
Toyota (TM) said on Wednesday it would recall more than 1.35 mln Vitz and two other models globally to fix a defect in the seat belt, the exhaust system or both. It will also recall a combined 830,000 units in Europe, North America and other markets. -
Megas, ära mind küll samasse patta pane.
Vaadates tartsi eilset postitust, on su sõnumite lahti kodeerimise võime lausa suurepärane, kahju ainult, et sa mu iroonianooti välja ei lugenud. -
Boeing sees FY09 $5.05-5.35 vs $5.68 First Call consensus; sees revs $68-69 bln vs $68.55 bln First Call consensus
Boeing Commercial Airplanes' 2009 delivery guidance is between 480 and 485 airplanes -
Ning enne, kui kauplemine üldse 28. jaanuari hommikul USA turul on alata saanud, vaatab oodatava Obama bad-bank plaani tõttu finantssektorist vastu just selline pilt. Lühikeste positsioonide omanikud on ööga grillvarda otsa tõmmatud, õun suhu pistetud ja lõkke kohale küpsema pandud.
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Futuurid juba üle 2% plussis, ilma teeb finantssektor. Wells Fargo (WFC) head tulemused ning spekulatsioonide jätkumine, et halbade laenude ülevõtmiseks mõeldud "bad bank'i" loomisest teatatakse juba järgmisel nädalal, on indekseid kõrgemale vedanud. Finantssektori liikumist jäljendav kolmekordse võimendusega börsil kaubeldav fond FAS eelturul juba +24%.
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IMF cuts forecasts, sees '09 global growth slowing to 0.5%
At least $500 bln in new capital needed at US, Europe banks.
IMF on vist üks väheseid, kes 2009. aastalt veel kasvu ootab? -
Saksamaa DAX +3.90%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +3.16%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +2.32%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +3.01%
Venemaa MICEX +2.79%
Poola WIG +1.91%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.56%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng N/A (börs suletud)
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.51%
Tai Set 50 +0.80%
India Sensex 30 +2.81%
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Expect Frenzied Action on the 'Bad Bank' Plan
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/28/2009 8:04 AM EST
Maybe all one can do is hope to end up with the right regrets.
-- Arthur Miller
I discussed yesterday how the technical setup of the markets was becoming more bearish as we have rallied back toward overhead resistance on declining volume. This sort of pattern is called a bearish wedge, as there is a high degree of danger that the uptrend will fail.
This morning the market is quite excited over talk about a "bad bank" plan in which the federal government buys "bad" and illiquid debt held by financial institutions. The goal is to help clean up balance sheets and to push banks to increase lending. Once again there are high hopes that maybe we'll find some solutions to our overwhelming economic problems.
We are going to have all sorts of discussions today about whether such a plan is good or bad. Plenty of folks will be unhappy about how deeply the federal government is becoming involved in private enterprise, but many others will argue that we really have no choice because the alternatives are so bad. One thing we can be sure of is that the government is going to keep trying to do something, which at least will make some people more hopeful.
I'll let others figure out if the "bad bank" program is a good move or not. What we do know is that we are going to see a strong positive reaction this morning in an environment with a technical setup that was developing in a bearish fashion. The gap up this morning is going to invite some quick profit-taking, but the bigger question is whether this news will then give the market some significant underlying support.
The biggest problem for the bulls is that this isn't totally unexpected news. The financials have been inching up in anticipation of another in a series of attempts to bail out the banks. So far, nothing has had a lasting impact on banks.
Take a look at the market action on Sept. 19, when the first TARP program was announced. We had a big opening gap in the morning. We hit the high near the open after the announcement and gave it back completely over the next couple of days. Not only did the gain on the first TARP announcement fizzle fast, it helped to trigger a vicious downside move that took us to the lows of this past November. If you bought on the first TARP announcement, you were killed.
I'm not looking for anything so drastic to occur this time, but I certainly would not be looking to chase the strength caused by this news. In fact, I'll be looking for some short opportunities into this strength. If you are inclined to be a buyer, at least let the initial excitement cool off before you make any big moves.
It is going to be a very chaotic day of trading, with lots of the talking heads getting excited about this "bad bank" program. Before you get sucked into the excitement, keep in mind that every recent strong market move following a new government program was a good shorting opportunity.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VPRT +32.6% (also upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), WFC +22.0% (also maintains common stock dividend of $0.34 per share), ETFC +14.5%, BSY +9.2%, JAVA +7.8%, BBV +6.2%, YHOO +6.2%, BBOX +5.5%, SAP +5.1%, SYK +4.8%, CSGS +4.3%, DMND +2.8%, NSC +2.3%, T +1.6%... M&A news: AVNX +34.6% (Bookham and Avanex agree to merger)... Select financials are trading sharply higher in the pre-mkt following reports that a "bad bank" plan could be announced as early as next week : LYG +42.4% (also upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), BCS +27.4%, C +21.1%, SOV +17.8%, DB +17.4%, RF +15.2%, FITB +14.9%, BAC +14.6%, STI +13.0%, HBC +10.4%, ABK +9.6%, STT +9.5%, ZION +9.4%, JPM +8.7%, XL +8.5%, STD +8.0%, AIB +8.0%, PNC +7.7%, USB +7.3%, UBS +6.3%, HIG +6.2%, CIT +6.1%, USB +6.1%, MS +6.0%, COF +5.9%, PRU +5.3%, GS +4.8%, MA +3.1%, V +3.0%, MBI +2.8%, NTRS +1.9%, MTG +1.8%, AIG +1.5%... Select metals/mining names trading higher: MT +5.1%, BBL +4.9%, AAUK +4.5%, BHP +4.1%, RIO +4.0%, GOLD +1.4%... Select drybulk shippers showing strength: DRYS +8.8%, DSX +6.6%, EXM +4.5%... Select oil/gas names trading higher: DO +4.3% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), BP +2.7%, TOT +2.7% (launches public offer to acquire UTS), RDS.A +2.2%... Other news: EXAS +34.2% (announces strategic transaction with Genzyme including intellectual property asset purchase and equity investment), VE +6.2% (jumps in Europe trading on a report that US funds eyeing the co - DJ), LUX +4.2% (the co and Tory Burch announced the signing of a license agreement), CMA +3.3% (declares dividend of $0.05, down from prior dividend of $0.33), TUP +2.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: AFL +9.3% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill), PHG +6.0% (upgraded to Hold at ING), FCX +4.8% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Canaccord Adams), DISH +4.4% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), CLX +2.2% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Citigroup), QCOM +2.0% (upgraded to Buy at Charter Equity), MCHP +1.7% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CNB -20.9% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette and downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan), RFMD -15.6%, LM -12.6%, TEL -10.1%, MOLX -5.9%, AMLN -5.9% (also downgraded to Sell from Hold at Canaccord Adams), PLT -5.8%, DV -4.8%, NVS -4.0%, CAJ -2.2%, WLP -1.5%... Other news: ALD -28.9% (re-opens amendment discussions with its lenders under revolving credit facility and holders of private notes), QELP -26.3% (suspends quarterly distribution on common units), CENX -18.4% (announces a $100 mln common stock offering under an existing shelf registration statement), CP -6.1% (announces common equity offering of 12.6 mln shares at C$36.75), NEM -2.9% (announces proposed common stock and convertible notes offerings to raise ~$1.2 bln and plans to acquire remaining interest in Boddington project in western Australia), RTP -1.6% (Rio Tinto flags possible equity raising - Reuters). -
Citigroup (C): Government of Singapore discloses 5.3% stake in 13G filing
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to: Madis Toomsalu 11:32 . Coca-Colat ostis ära meil kohaliku "Linnuse Kalja" ära ning asus seda tootma.
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Alari, kas C uudise puhul on tegu C 5,3% omandamisega või selle plaanist loobumisega ?
Ei leia referenci kusagilt. -
crom, 13G filing viitab sellele, et mõni investor on omandanud üle 5% osaluse.
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0k, huvitav info viimase aja natsionaliseerimisehirmu taustal. Singapuri valitsus omandus vist uudis ei ole, selle suurenemine üle 5 % vast? Citi suuromanike seltskond tundub päris kirju, araabia printsid ja aasia valitsused ..
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Treasury's Geithner says new financial rescue plan 'relatively soon' - DJ
FOMC kommentaarid väljas 21:15 -
Fed says Prepared To Buy Longer-Term Tsy Securities If Needed
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Inflation pressures to remain subdued in coming qtrs
Fed says Sees Gradual Recovery In Econ Activity Later This Yr
FOMC statement does not change interest rate directive; holds target at 0-0.25%
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time. Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the economy has weakened further. Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending. Furthermore, global demand appears to be slowing significantly. Conditions in some financial markets have improved, in part reflecting government efforts to provide liquidity and strengthen financial institutions; nevertheless, credit conditions for households and firms remain extremely tight. The Committee anticipates that a gradual recovery in economic activity will begin later this year, but the downside risks to that outlook are significant. In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities in recent months and the prospects for considerable economic slack, the Committee expects that inflation pressures will remain subdued in coming quarters. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term. The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. The focus of the Committee's policy is to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that are likely to keep the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. The Federal Reserve continues to purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand the quantity of such purchases and the duration of the purchase program as conditions warrant. The Committee also is prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets. The Federal Reserve will be implementing the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Committee will continue to monitor carefully the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial market developments and to assess whether expansions of or modifications to lending facilities would serve to further support credit markets and economic activity and help to preserve price stability. -
Retoorika on sama, aga kindlat Treasury'te ostuplaani ka justkui pole. Proovitakse bilansi jõulist suurendamist vältida, jutuga hoitakse määrad madalal, aga kui vaja, siis tegutsetakse.
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Eeemm, The Committee also is prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets.
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Jah, seda mõtlesingi. Kui vaja, siis tegutsetakse. Nad on valmis olnud juba eelmise aasta lõpust, kindlat tegutsemist pole aga järgnenud. Täna lootis turg sellele vihjet.
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'particularly effective'... iseenesest 'particularly effective' olukorda on raske näha ning pigem meenutab see suuga suure linna ehitamist ning lootust, et käega ei pea kärbsepesagi tegema.
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Ja Crameri kommentaar ka siia tänase Fedi peale: "Bernanke is even more aggressive, I WOULD NOT FIGHT THIS FED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! "
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Paari päeva eest kõlanud finantsi shortimine nädala lõpuni sobiks paremini nüüd. Nii umbes 70-40 shansiga :D
- tõenäoline rallijärgne kasumivõtt homme
- musta värviga tööpuuduse raport homme ja Q4 final GDP ülehomme
Riskiks väike trendipäeva võimalus täna, kui see maagilin 860 joon murdub .. -
parandus, noh see on murtud :p
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RBNZ cuts 5 --> 3,5
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http://www.tv3.ee/content/view/6398/29/
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Võlakirjad saavad Föderaalreservi statementi järel igaljuhul peksa.
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Väga hea lugu:
Wells Fargo (WFC) discloses it previously incorrectly reported book value per common share of $23.43 for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2008, correct vlaue is $16.14 -
no need vabamüürlased on ikka kavalad:
1. usa naftat ei kasutata, vaid hoitakse reservis
2. suurenenud nõudlus viib suure hinnatõusuni ja raha voolab araablastele, kes selle eest ostavad läbi usa fin.sektori usa kinnisvara
3. et veelgi rohkem raha araablastelt kätte saada, mõeldakse välja rämpslaenude paketeerimine ja see müüakse araablastele teist ja kolmandat korda maha
4. siis tõmmatakse punn eest ära ja usa fin.sektori aktsiaid loe: araablasi diluuditakse ca 75%
5. peale korralikku diluutimist eraldatakse nüüd juba valitsuse käes olevate pankade bilansist solk ja trükitakse veel raha juurde, et see valitsuse kontrolli all olevale pangale hoiule anda. nende raha ei maksa ajas midagi, neil aega on oodata. kinnisvaraturult on solk eraldatud ja nõudlus tekib
6. kui välisvõlg on jõudnud ca 20%-ni, kukub dollar kõikide valuutade suhtes veel 10-30%
7. metsik kogus raha suunatakse energiasektori ümberstruktrueerimisele, et vähendada sõltuvust naftast
8.ja siis trükitakse veel raha juurde ja makstakse välisvõlg tagasi
9. selleks ajaks on usa eksport tänu nõrgale dollarile jalad alla saanud, kasumid ja sisenõudlus tõusevad, dollari kurss hakkab taas vaikselt tõusma
kott ja mott -
Green Mtn Coffee beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides FY09 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
Reports Q1 (Dec) earnings of $0.16 per share, excluding a patent litigation settlement, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.13; revenues rose 55.9% year/year to $197 mln vs the $189.3 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $1.25-1.35 vs. $1.25 consensus; sees FY09 revs of $715.0-740.0 mln vs. $699.76 mln consensus. -
seda leid´ huvitava prognoosi täitumist/mittetäitumist oleks täitsa huvitav paari aasta pärast kontrollida
