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Börsipäev 12. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Viimane kauplemispäev enne reede ja kolmeteistkümnendat... Kui USA majandust stimuleeriva paketi suuruseks on pisut alla $800 miljardi, siis Austraalias jäi US$28 miljardiline pakett napilt vastu võtmata.

    Aga üritame neid stimuleerimispakette konteksti panna. Austraalia pakett US$28 on nende 2008. aasta $825 miljardilisest SKPst PPP põhjal 3.4%. USA $790 miljardiline pakett on Ameerika $14.58 triljonilisest SKPst 5.4%. USA poliitikud liikumas maailmas jätkuvalt ühena agressiivseimatest nii monetaar- kui eelarvepoliitikas. Aga eks probleemide suurus ole ka põhjuseks.
  • Varased hommikutunnid USAs on päris koledad - S&P500 -1.1% (@ 822 punkti) ning ka nafta protsendi jagu miinuses $35.5 peal.
  • ...jah odavast naftast on kulukam head benzu valmistada.
  • Niisugune küsimus: Millised börsid on lahti laupäeval (pühapäeval)?
    Kui olen laupäeval CNN-i peale pannud, oleks justkui märganud, et Aasias on mõned lahti.
  • USA (ja ka Euroopa) on omadega tehniliselt siiski koridoris. Samas peaks vist varsti hakkama mingit kolmnurka joonistama ning uudiseid vaadates on lihtsama vastupanu tee siiski allapoole. Ja seal on ees ju meil need kõikvõimsad novembri põhjad, millest läbi kukkumine kindlasti ilus ei oleks.
  • MSM, osa Lähis-Ida börse on lahti (GCC kindlasti).
  • MSM,

    pühapäeviti on lahti Lähis-Ida börsid.
  • MSM - tean Bangladesh on Pühpäev lahti, samuti saad kaubelda ka ES futuuridega US-is.
  • Täna tund aega enne USA turgude avanemist teatatakse esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate number, mis mäletatavasti jõudis eelmisel nädalal juba 626 000 peale. Seekord oodatakse keskmiselt 610 000 suurust näitu. Samuti teatatakse jaanuarikuu jaemüügi numbrid - ootus selles vallas -0.3% (detsembris oli -2.7%).
  • 3 vastajat, ja seetõttu väga põhjalik vastus.
  • Ega neil ES-futuuridel mingit väga tõsist turgu küll ei ole pühapäeviti...
  • saan aru et nafta peale panustada on ainuke vahend USO?
  • rainerb, miks? Kui raha on, siis QM, kui nii palju ei ole, siis USL.
  • rainerb, kui tahad korralikult nalja saada, siis CL.
  • 1 lepinguga:

    ES - 1 punktiline liikumine = $50
    QM - 1 punktiline liikumine = $500
    CL - 1 punktiline liikumine = $1000
  • The Wall Street Journal reports Congress and the White House reached accord on a $789.5 bln economic-recovery package that would shower hundreds of billions of dollars in tax relief on individuals and businesses and spark an infrastructure building boom, from the nation's ports and waterways to its schools and military bases. Both Mr. Obama and Democratic leaders lowered their work-creation expectation Wednesday. They had originally said their goal was to create, or save, four mln jobs. Last night, they cut that to 3.5 mln. The president has framed the deal as the first leg of an economic program aimed also at unclogging credit markets, lifting the housing market and tightening regulation of the financial and banking sector. The agreement came late Wednesday after last-minute dickering over education and school-construction funds that dramatized the intensity of negotiations.

    The House and Senate convened a conference committee to bless the legislation and clear the way for action in the House as early as Thursday. Both chambers are expected to pass the compromise shortly. Full details weren't released Wednesday, as aides met late to draft formal language and said tinkering was still possible well into the night. About $282 bln of the bill, or 35%, is dedicated to tax cuts, split roughly evenly between incentives for businesses and individuals. The rest is spending, including expanded unemployment benefits, food stamps and construction of highways and bridges, water-treatment facilities and high-speed Internet service, among other things. A proposed $35 bln credit to support home sales was jettisoned in favor of a more modest $2-3 bln provision. The proposal would eliminate the repayment requirement in an existing tax credit for first-time home buyers, and raise the credit to $8,000 from $7,500. Congressional aides cautioned Wednesday that the credit's size was still subject to negotiation.

  • rainerb, UCO on ka käredama liikumisega tegelane
  • Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- East European credit risk surged, with credit-default swaps tied to Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania and Poland reaching record highs.
  • Citigroupi Pandit palub oma aastaseks palgaks määrata $1 aastas seni, kuni naastakse kasumisse.

  • On tal vähemalt normaalselt C akitsaid käes? Muidu nagu tekib kahtlus härra motivatsioonis, mis?
  • Burger King added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman
  • Õnneks, muidu oleks tekkinud kahtlus, et härra on globaalse sotsialismi-populismi laineharjal puhta segi keeranud.
  • Eks neid 1-dollari-mehi ole varemgi turn-around ettevõtetes olnud, kuigi tavaliselt omavad nad tõesti ka aktsiaid. Samas, maine ja karjäär maksavad ka midagi, eriti, kui enda seljatagusele mõtlema ei pea.
  • No, tee või tina, kuid ühedollari-meest, kellel korralikult aktsiaid ei ole, mina küll ei usaldaks.
  • Pankurite kompensatsiooni teemat on ka Kass lahanud ning tahaks selle jutu siia ka panna:

    During the course of the testimony, Congress had specific questions with regard to bankers' compensation in 2007, 2008 and 2009.

    In questioning Citigroup's Vikram Pandit, not a single member of Congress knew to query him about the absurd level of compensation ($165 million) he received in 2007 in connection with Citigroup's purchase of his Old Lane hedge fund. In essence, Citigroup dramatically overpaid for his "smallish" hedge fund in order to incent Pandit -- the large premium over fair market value of Old Lane was clearly 2007's compensation to him - but, again, nobody asked him to lump the $165 million into his 2007 compensation answer. Clearly, none had done the research. (The Old Lane deal was a disaster. It turned out to be another value-destructive Citigroup deal. In June 2008, Citigroup closed down Old Lane because of terrible performance.

    Just as poor as Congress's research was regarding Pandit's 2007 compensation, Pandit's responses to their compensation questions was disingenuous. When asked about his projected 2009 compensation, Pandit, with a smile of approval on his face, repeatedly underscored that he had asked the Board of Directors of Citigroup for "only $1 in salary." Not volunteering that he received excessive compensation back in 2007 (when he sold Old Lane) was insincere. He should have volunteered the fact that he had previously received such a large sum less than two years ago.
  • January Retail Sales 1.0% vs -0.8% consensus, prior revised to -3% from -2.7%
    Initial Claims 623K vs 610K consensus, prior revised to 631K from 626K
    January Retail Sales ex-auto +0.9% vs -0.4% consensus, prior revised to -3.2% from -3.1%
  • USA turud on päeva alustamas pessimistlikes meeleoludes. S&P500 on juba enne turu avanemist 1.9% punases 816 punkti peal, Nasdaq -1.4% ning nafta -3.9% at $34.5.

    Saksamaa DAX -1.76%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.34%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.10%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.49%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.16%

    Poola WIG -1.69%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.03%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.30%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.56%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.16%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.65%

    Tai Set 50 -0.99%

    India Sensex 30 -1.59%

  • The Bias Toward Action
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/12/2009 8:22 AM EST

    The most important thing in life is not the triumph but the struggle. The essential thing is not to have conquered but to have fought well.
    -- Baron Pierre de Coubertin

    As the $800 billion stimulus bill moves toward passage, many doubt we are fighting the economic battle effectively. The market action obviously indicates that investors have little confidence, and the poor way in which the bank bailout program has been announced is only serving to destabilize the market further.

    I believe there really isn't much that government can do to change the course of the economic cycle. We need to provide a safety net for those at the bottom of the pile, but there is no way we can avoid a good amount of pain for many as the business cycle plays out.

    There are already way too many market commentators offering economic advice. I'll simply say that I don't believe that all the governmental efforts are going to do much, but the nature of politics is that they will never stop trying to help us, and we will suffer some painful unintended consequences.

    Our job here is to try to navigate through this market as best we can. It is unquestionably an extremely difficult market, but it is a classic bear market, and it is much more difficult if we try to fight that fact. The surges of hope and the churning action can take a tremendous toll on you if you forget the big picture and the fact that we are still in a major downtrend.

    If you are a longer-term investor, you should be sitting on the sidelines in cash and staying very patient. If you have a shorter-term perspective then you also need to be patient, but stay watchful for the development of a bear-market bounce. Even the worst bear markets will have some decent tradable bounces and one will develop again sooner or later, no matter how gloomy it is.

    Unfortunately, conditions for a bounce are not looking so good. The biggest positive we have is the complete dearth of positive news and the very gloomy sentiment. I don't like trying to time turns based on subjective evaluations of the degree of negativity, but you sure aren't going to find a whole lot of optimism out there.

    The big problem right now is that the indices have been deteriorating technically. We are barely holding onto support levels, and if they crack, we'll need some time to find new support from which another bear-market rally attempt can commence.

    The most dangerous thing on Wall Street is also the most dangerous thing we are seeing in politics. It is the bias toward action. People who make their living in the stock market are always going to be advising you to do something. They don't want you to just sit there because it renders them useless. It is exactly what we are seeing from politicians these days as well.

    Sometimes the best way to fight is to simply accept what is and to prepare yourself for the inevitable change in conditions that will eventually occur. That is where we are in the market at this time. Don't waste a lot of emotional and financial capital trying to change the fact that we are in a downcycle.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DFT +21.9% (also upgraded to Outperform at Robert W. Baird and upgraded to Outperform at Wachovia), AIPC +19.7%, BWLD +17.5% (also upgraded to Neutral at MKM Partners), WINN +17.3% (light volume), SNWL +10.8%, CMG +8.5%, ASIA +7.0%, ZGEN +6.2%, O +4.9%, LVS +4.3%, KO +3.2%, RE +3.0%, LIFE +2.7% (light volume), TK +2.5%, TOT +1.5%, GSIC +1.2%... Other news: MGM +2.7% (up in sympathy with LVS), EBS +2.6% (announces that BioThrax receives market authorization in India), STJ +1.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: BKC +6.1% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman- CNBC, added to Alpha list at Piper Jaffray), CAL +3.8% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill), CRXL +1.6% (initiated with Buy at Jefferies).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping downIn reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GIL -28.4% (also downgraded to Outperform at Raymond James and downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), TEX -21.4%, PACR -16.0% (light volume; also downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan and downgraded to Underperform at Baird), IRE -15.6% (also Moody's downgrades Bank Of Ireland to Aa3/C), WPRT -14.1% (light volume), SQNM -11.2% (also initiated with a Sell at Brean Murray), ELOS -9.7%, EDU -9.7%, BT -9.5% (light volume), MAR -9.3%, STRA -9.2%, ICO -8.8%, NTAP -7.9% (also downgraded to Neutral at MKM Partners), JASO -7.3%, EQIX -7.1%, SCOR -6.8% (light volume; also downgraded to Hold at Collins Stewart), MAS -6.2%, STR -6.0%, AET -6.0%, DEO -5.9%, PTEN -4.2% (light volume), ATVI -3.3%, WSH -1.7% (light volume)... Select financial names showing weakness: AIB -18.9% (provides capital update; confirms that it has been in further negotiations with the Irish Government), LNC -5.3%, BAC -4.8%, ING -4.1%, RF -4.1%, BCS -3.8%, WFC -3.4%, JPM -1.8%, GS -1.5%, UBS -1.4%... Select education related names trading lower following disappointing STRA and EDU results: CECO -6.7%, APOL -3.5%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: AAUK -6.5%, BBL -4.9%, BHP -4.8%, AU -4.2%, GOLD -3.2%, RIO -3.0%, HMY -2.7%, MT -2.4%, GFI -1.7%... Select oil/gas related names trading modestly lower with weakness in crude: REP -3.8%, PBR -2.5%, CVX -1.6%, E -1.0%... Other news: GNK -4.1% (details limited exposure to Samsun Logix), BMRN -4.1% (announces results of first interim efficacy analysis for Riquent Phase 3 trial; says "continuation of trial is futile"), UNH -3.6% (down in sympathy with AET), SNY -1.6% and AZN -1.3% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: KSS -3.8% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman- CNBC), RTN -2.1% (downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein), NYX -1.7% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup).
  • Nii kole kui ka see turg täna ei tundu, siis märgiksin ära, et Apple (AAPL) on plussis...
  • Apple juba üle protsendi plussis... tasub radaril hoida.
  • Ehk on ka sellest natuke tuge:
    Apple-AAPL is confident that it will meet Q2 guidance, says Bernstein
    After meeting with Apple executives, Bernstein believes the company may release new iPhones. The firm worries that Apple is going to saturate its demand in the U.S., but they maintain an Outperform rating on the shares.
  • Seda järsem tuleb kukkumine kui lõpuks kohale jõuab et ega ikka ei suudeta kyll guidance´i täita, rimm näitas eile klassi
  • SIGMA ujub vastuvoolu.Vähemalt hetkel...
  • Apple 2% plussis ning julgeks öelda, et on oma liikumisega kogu tehnoloogiasektori pool protsenti plussi tõmmanud.
  • Obama tegelemas kinnisvaraturu probleemidega ning see on päevalõpu negatiivsed meeleolud kontrolli alla suutnud võtta.

    Obama admin near plan to lower cost for homeowners with problem loans. US to subsidize mortgage payments after new home value set. Fannie and Freddie would help with housing rescue.
  • Ju siis härrased vaatasid, et rsk läheb paanikaks kätte, tuleb massile midagi hammastesse visata.
  • WN, pead Obamat õlle eest tänama, paistab nii
  • Nafta martsikuu futuur -1.6 dollarit ja aprillikuu oma - 0.1 ???
  • urmasploom,

    meil on Harri Kingo, argentiilastel on tango, aafriklastel pingo-pongo, futuuriturul aga on contango...

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contango
  • urmasploom,

    Nagu oli ka viimasest USA nafta varude raportist näha, siis lühiajaliselt on toornafta turul ülepakkumine ja varud kasvavad oodatust kiiremini. Futuurikauplejad on juba mitu kuud uskunud, et üleliigne pakkumine kaob kohe-kohe ära (et piiratakse agressiivselt tootmist), kuid seni on sõrme lõigatud ja iga kuu lõpus ollakse oma pikki positsioone üle rollimas...
  • aitahh Joel ja Karum6mm
    Ma imestan kahe fondimanedzeri ule kes bloombergis seletasid et ostavad USOt
    hetkel aprillikuu leping 42,6 millel kova preemium martsi 34,6-le
    Ja kui kaaluda 25 dollarist naftahinda , aprillikuu omast ?
    Kas voib arvata et USOt ei maksaks torkida ?
  • to ktammin: SIGMa korralik fundamentaalne pale veetleb veristel tänavtel hirmunud raha.

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