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Börsipäev 18. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Dow Jonesi indeks suutis eile lõpetada 7552.6 punkti peal, mis oli imevähe rohkem, kui 20. novembri sulgumishind 7552.29. Seega eile suudeti viimase 5.5 aasta uue madalaima sulgumishinna tegemist vältida. Dow Jonesi päevasiseseks novembrikuu põhjaks oli 7449.38 punkti.

    Täna avaldatakse tund aega enne turu avanemist jaanurikuu Housing Starts (ootus 530 000, eelmine kuu oli 550 000) ning ehituslubade arv (ootus 525 000, eelmine kuu oli 547 000). 15 minutit enne turu avanemist teatatakse jaanurikuu tööstustoodangu muutus (ootus -1.5% vs eelmise kuu -2.0%). Eesti aja järgi kell 21.00 avaldatakse Föderaalreservi protokoll 28. jaanuari kohtumisest. Enne seda võtab sõna Föderaalreservist Bernanke (kell 12.30 ET) ning Evans (kell 13.20 ET). Seega tuleb päris tihe päev.

    USA aktsiaturud varastel hommikutundidel eilse verelaskmise järel enam-vähem nullis.

  • Asi, mis täna segadust tekitab, on eilne raport, kust olid näha muudatused Buffetti portfellis. Teadupärast kirjutas Buffett oktoobri keskel, et on kasutamas oma varasid selleks, et osta kokku üha enam USA ettevõtteid. Ometi oli eilses müüdud aktsiate nimekirjas hulgaliselt igipõliseid Ameerika börsiettevõtteid. Kopeerin siia Crameri lõigu:

    Struggling. I'm struggling this morning with some of the things that Warren Buffett is doing with his cash these days. I am struggling because he is selling America, selling Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Procter & Gamble (PG) , selling ConocoPhillips (COP) and selling U.S. Bancorp (USB).

    What's more American than these stocks? These are not small trimmings. He sold more than half of his 52 million shares of Johnson & Johnson and he sold it at a 20-year low relative to its yield. That doesn't sound like "Buy America." That sounds like "Sell America."

  • Kommentaar Genuine Parts (GPC) lühikeseksmüügi ideele sai Pro alla lisatud juba eile. Täna hommikul teatab Merrill Lynch, et eemaldab tulemustejärgselt GPC oma ostunimekirjast ja langetab soovituse neutraalse peale.

    Lisaks tooksin välja, et Altria (MO) kinnitab jätkuvalt oma 2009. fiskaalaasta kasumiprognoosi EPSi osas $1.70 kuni $1.75. Ehk teiste sõnadega kaupleb ettevõte 8.9x 2009. aasta kasumil... Tugev fundamentaalne väärtus.
  • Ei tea, kas on veel kellelegi silma jäänud, aga contango efekt naftas on sel nädalal väga tugevasti järele andnud. Kaugemate kuude lepingud on tõusudega ülespoole liikunud vähem ning langustega tulnud allapoole rohkem. Näiteks praegugi vaadates erinevaid lepinguid, näeme, et märtsi nafta +1.4%, aprilli nafta +0.6% ja detsembri nafta -0.2% (!).
  • Joel, Buffett on ilmselt kaitsvaid aktsiaid vähendamas, nende töö on tehtud, aeg hakata tõusule mängima :)

    viimase 2 aastaga on JNJ langenud ca -15% ja PG ca -20% vs S&P500 langus üle -40%
  • Aga Henno, COP ja USB? Lihtsalt rotation HOGi, GEsse, TIFi, GSi?
  • Kas neti sektoris (mõtlen BIDU ja GOOG) on midagi huvitavat, nt optsiooni reedeks?
  • Joel, pööra tähelepanu dislaimerile :)
  • USA turud teevad otsa lahti täna indeksite 1%lise plussiga, nafta hind flat.

    Saksamaa DAX -0.44%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.04%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.48%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.03%

    Venemaa MICEX -2.47%

    Poola WIG +1.05%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.45%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.55%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -4.73%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -3.67%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.80%

    Tai Set 50 +0.25%

    India Sensex 30 -0.22%

  • 'Cheap' Is Meaningless
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/18/2009 8:17 AM EST

    Certainly by any historical measure, world stock prices are cheap. But as history also counsels, they could get a lot cheaper before they turn.
    -- Alan Greenspan

    One of the biggest dangers in a bear market is buying stocks because they appear to be cheap. The danger is twofold. First, in an economic environment where conditions are changing rapidly, many valuation assumptions may turn out to be just plain incorrect. Even companies that are selling at a price close to their cash balances or that are paying good-yielding dividends can see conditions change quickly and make valuation calculations useless.

    The second problem with buying "cheap" stocks in a bear market is that the market will often completely ignore valuation no matter how solid it may seem. The market can be emotional and irrational for very long periods of time. As the economist John Maynard Keynes once said, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

    There is only one way to deal with these dangers, and that is to let the market action be your guide. We want to buy stocks when the market is starting to recover from overreaction to the downside and is appreciating that there may be good values. The market will always overcorrect to the downside in a bear market and overcorrect to the upside in a bull market.

    We can use this fact to our advantage, but we need to be patient and wait for the market to show us that it recognizing the fact that it has overacted. To be safe, we want to buy stocks when they are going up and not down. It takes a very long time to recover from the overreaction in a bear market, so you don't need to constantly be trying to guess when the low might come. Watch for sustained positive action. Don't be fooled by one or two days of gains. It is only when the market starts to make a series of higher lows and the trend begins to shift that valuation and irrationality will become our friends.

    Right now we are in one of the worst bear markets any of us has ever seen. We need to embrace that fact and be very aware that even if some stocks are cheap, there is no guarantee that they are going to go up in price anytime soon. The time will come when you will want to own "cheap" stocks, but it isn't now.

    We have a slightly positive start to the day as the market considers another auto bailout and President Obama's upcoming announcement about a mortgage bailout plan. However this market is extremely nervous, lacking in confidence and technically challenged. The bulls have some very heavy lifting to do if they are going to get much going.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AMMD +11.6%, SOA +11.3%, VMI +7.9% (light volume), VOLC +5.3%, IMA +5.2% (light volume), BEAT +4.0%, CMCSA +3.2%, SPSS +2.7% (light volume)... Select financial related names modestly rebounding: STI +4.8%, BAC +4.7%, C +3.9%, USB +3.0%, JPM +1.9%, WFC +1.8%... Select insurer related names showing strength: MBI +29.9% (MBIA establishes separate public finance bond insurance company and advances transformation strategy), ABK +15.2%, XL +4.0%... Select drybulk shippers trading higher: DRYS +9.5%, EGLE +5.5%, EXM +3.8%, TBSI +3.5%... Other news: NLC +6.3% (included in Berkshire Hathaway SEC position filings; filed a new 8.739 mln shares NLC stake), MED +5.5% (responds to false claims; says report is false and misleading), MT +4.7% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: S +5.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Friedman Billings; tgt $4), NYX +3.2% (upgraded to Neutral, removed from Americas Sell list at Goldman- Reuters).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CPTS -12.9% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), JAKK -10.9%, A -9.6%, GT -8.6%, ING -7.4%, ACGY -7.3%, G -5.1%, RCI -4.3% (light volume), RBCN -3.9% (light volume), AXYS -3.0%, DE -2.5%, CHK -2.2%, OC -2.2% (light volume), UPL -2.1%... Select stem cell related names showing weakness with AP reporting fetal stem cells triggered tumors in ill: STEM -4.4%, GERN -2.4%... Other news: RBS -5.9% (Royal Bank of Scotland struggles to find way to pay 8 bln pounds bill for toxic asset insurance scheme - Daily Telegraph), PUK -5.5% (still checking), BP -3.3% (traded lower overseas due to concerns stemming from weak commodity demand), ALV -2.5% (suspends quarterly dividend)... Analyst comments: TDW -2.2% (added to Conviction Sell List at Goldman - Reuters), GPC -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), FRO -2.1% (showing early weakness; hearing downgraded at tier 1 firm).
  • Tänaseks ootaks ka pigem positiivset päeva, mis võiks kulmineeruda 800 peale jõudmisega ning sellisel juhul võiks SDS short olla üsna huvitav. Sisenemist valiks hoolikalt ning usun, et kõrgemalt kui $86 oleks huvitav.
  • jaanurikuu tööstustoodangu muutuse kohta keegi midagi teab?
  • renessanss

    Industrial production declined 1.8%, marking the fifth decline in the last six months. The reading for December, meanwhile, was revised lower to -2.4% from an initial -2.0% reading. Manufacturing output declined -2.5% as a drop in auto and parts production accounted for more than 1.0 percentage point of the decline. The output of mines declined -1.3% (vs. -1.0% in Dec.) while severe January weather led to a 2.7% increase in the output of utilities (vs. -0.2% in Dec.). Notably, the output of business equipment dropped -3.7% while the production of industrial and other equipment fell -3.0%. These indications reflect the downturn in business investment that is becoming more pronounced. The capacity utilization rate slipped to 72.0% (from 73.3%) and is 8.9 percentage points below the 1972-2008 average. Manufacturing capacity utilization fell to 68.0% (from 69.7%), which is the lowest since records began in 1948. The continuing economic message in the January industrial production report is that factory output will remain soft and prices will be held in check given the increase in idle capacity in the manufacturing segment that is due to weak end demand.
  • Ooo! Tundub, et FED on lähenemas pidevale inflatsiooni eesmärkide seadmisele. No ma kohe tahaks näha kuidas inflation targeting FEDi moodi välja näeb.
  • Fed lowers forecast for 2009 economy
    Fed raises forecast for economy in 2010, 2011
  • Whitney on endale finantssekotris nime teinud ning seetõttu võttis kuuldavasti ette järgmise käigu:

    CNBC reports Meredith Whitney is leaving Oppenheimer to start her own firm

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