Börsipäev 24. veebruar
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Head Vabariigi aastapäeva kõigile!
Hommik on USA turgudel eilse täpne koopia - aktsiaturud üle 1%plussis. S&P500 suutis siiski oma novembrikuisest põhjast eile kõrgemale jääda, kuid tõenäoliselt käiakse sealt korra siiski ka allpool ära. -
Ja samuti head Vastlapäeva! Mida pikem liug seda pikemad positsioonid :)
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JP Morgan analyst sets "Short-term" buy on S&P 500 with 800 price target
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speedy sets short term sell with sub 700 price target
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Mingi uudis tuli? Futuur püstloodis alla.
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Lausa 2 uudist:
Microsoft CEO says wants to have conversation with Yahoo mgmt - DJ (11.97 ) (MSFT)
MSFT Microsoft CEO says sees 'difficult' conditions in 2H; all MSFT business will be affected -
December S&P Case Shiller Composite-20 y/y -18.50% vs -18.30% consensus, prior revised to -18.20% from -18.18%
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Ja kuna kaasas käib ka selline lause - Microsoft CEO says no immediate plans to reduce costs further - siis lühiajaliselt on tulemuseks MSFT kasumite löögi alla sattumine. Õnneks pole aktsia aga kallis ning tasub täna MSFT radaril hoida ja vaadata, kas turg on sellise teatega juba arvestanud või mitte.
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This Market Yearns for Specific Solutions
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/24/2009 7:50 AM EST
In politics, the choice is constantly between two evils.
-- John Morley
The market action is completely dominated by political discussion. Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be any agreement or clarity as to what policy direction is the best, and the net result is a confused and chaotic market.
The political problem is at least twofold. The first problem is that the economic stimulus and mortgage bailouts are not being embraced, at least by the stock market, as effective solutions. Many are concerned that they are unnecessary spending and/or unfair to responsible borrowers and consumers.
The second problem is that is that there are no clear plans for banks. The turmoil really started about two weeks ago when Secretary Geithner announced he would have a more detailed announcement about his solution for banks. We are still waiting to hear what exactly is going to be done, and in the interim we are hit with a series of rumors such as bank nationalization or more investment in troubled entities like Citigroup (C) and AIG (AIG) .
The end result of all these politics is that the market is highly confused. Buyers have no confidence and are sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see how this all plays out. The major indices are flirting with multiyear lows, and the Dow Jones is already at a point it hasn't seen in 12 years.
Until we have some clarity and certainty, this market is going to continue to struggle. It really doesn't matter too much at this point what news or decision we see as long as it's something concrete that market players can evaluate and use to price the market with a bit more precision.
Given how negative and oversold the market is at this point, it won't take much for some news to spark a little rally, and we have two events coming up that may be helpful. First, President Obama is giving a prime-time speech to a joint session of Congress tonight. Lately, too many of Obama's appearances on television have been little more than glorified campaign speeches. Even Democrats like Bill Clinton are saying he is going too far in his focus on negatives to sell his stimulus and mortgage plans.
President Obama has the chance tonight to send the message that there is a specific and coherent economic policy and to try to reignite the optimism that brought him into the office in the first place. The market has been going straight down since the election. Maybe Main Street hasn't lost confidence, but that part of Main Street that owns stocks and all those "evil Wall Street folks" have, and Obama needs to change the mood out there.
A related and probably more important possible catalyst is the release of a concrete plan as to how the banking problem is going to be handled. Nationalization has been dismissed, but then we hear about stress tests and massive equity investment in troubled financials Citigroup and AIG. Some consistent and coherent vocabulary about the topic would be a good start. More than anything, the market needs to know exactly what approach will be taken for troubled banks -- even if the market doesn't like the plan, at least we can price it in and move forward.
The bottom line is that it is a mess out there politically, fundamentally and technically. The only thing we really have going for us is an oversold and extremely gloomy market that is ripe for some sort of oversold bounce. At least we should have some catalyst in the form of more announcements from Obama and Geithner, but there sure isn't much that market players should be doing at this point. Very heavy levels of cash continue to be the way to go.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping upIn reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CBRL +14.2%, JWN +13.4%, ONXX +10.0% (also upgraded to Outperform at Boenning & Scattergood), TASR +8.4% (light volume), DPZ +7.1% (light volume), HNZ +6.2%, ESI +5.6%, HD +5.6%, M +4.7%... M&A news: HIFN +59.0% (to be acquired by Exar)... Select financial related names rebounding: BCS +6.0%, JPM +5.2% (to reduce quarterly dividend to $0.05 per share; Q1 performance quarter to date is solidly profitable), RBS +5.0% (may sell Taiwan ops to China investors for $500 mln, according to report - DJ), BAC +4.9%, HIG +4.8%, WFC +4.4%, DB +3.7%, USB +3.3%, ABB +3.1%, GS +2.2%, MS +1.9%... Select oil/gas names showing strength: E +3.2%, TOT +3.0%, BP +2.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), VLO +2.6%, CHK +2.4%, DVN +2.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), RDS.A +2.1%... Select metals/mining related names trading higher: MT +4.7%, RIO +1.9%, FCX +1.7%, BHP +1.6%, RTP +1.4%... Other news: RMBS +20.3% (Courts grant Rambus supplemental damages in Hynix case and orders renegotiation of compulsory license), DDR +15.2% (enters into agreement to sell 30 mln shares to the Otto Family; also upgraded to Neutral BofA/Merrill), MGM +5.4% (still checking), AFL +2.8% (Aflac Chairman & CEO will forgo 2008 bonus of $2.8 mln)... Analyst comments: RCL +5.3% (removed from Conviction Sell List at Goldman - Reuters; also upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), MRVL +5.1% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays), CCL +2.3% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), SUN +1.6% (upgraded to Buy at Soleil), SO +1.0% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping downIn reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MHK -15.1%, RSH -12.0%, GTI -11.7%, NCTY -7.3%, HURN -6.6%, FWLT -4.2%, AEIS -3.6%, TGT -1.5%... Select European financials trading lower: ING -16.3%, AEG -7.5%, AXA -3.0%... Other news: MAPP -69.0% (announces Phase 3 study of Unit Dose Budesonide in children with asthma did not meet primary endpoints; also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Leerink Swann, downgraded to Sell at Argus and downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche), SSRI -7.6% (announces public offering of common shares to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$80 mln), EGO -3.2% (announces C$275 mln common stock offering), NVS -3.0% (trading ex dividend)... Analyst comments: MDRX -6.0% (downgraded to Sell at Deutsche), UA -3.9% (initiated with Sell at Goldman - Reuters), COF -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral at JP Morgan), DAI -2.0% (downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein), CHRW -2.0% (downgraded to Underperform at Wachovia). -
Tarbijausalduse näitaja 25 punkti vs oodatud 35 punkti. 25 punkti on salvestatud ajaloo madalaim näitaja.
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Bernanke believes major US banks have significant franchise value, and says that would be lost if govt owned
Also says that the time may come when its correct to close them down, but not there yet.
Bernanke räägib turgu üles, finants päris võimsalt rallimas. -
Close what down?
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Kohe näha et rahvas läks kinno !!!
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Ma ei ole kinos, ma olen tööl. Teen tööd kah kusjuures. Terve päeva olen teinud.
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Aga äkki teed töö juures kinot, et õhtu nii roheline? :)
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Noh, varahaldusbusiness on servast ka entertainment business ju.
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Tore on vaadata, kuidas teiste inimeste raha põleb? :)
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jim, julmad naljad. Oma kogemusest võin öelda seda, et see ei ole kuskilt otsast tore. Ka ei tea ma siinmail kedagi, kelle meelest see tore oleks.
Entertainment pigem selles mõttes, et mandaadi saab see, kes oma case'i kõige paremini esitab. -
Endale teeb ka nalja, et võistlus käib selle nimel, et kes ühtsama jura ilusamini sõnastada oskab? :D
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Kui lehti lugeda, siis jääb küll mulje, et raha põletamine on paljude kõrgepalgaliste lemmiktegevus. 2008 olevat Eestis pensionifondidesse paigutatud 4,5 miljardit krooni, millest järgi jäi alla 1 miljardit.
(Ise loobusin pensionisammastest ja ei kahetse). -
Sellele JP Morgani trading callile võib nüüd joone alla (peale) tõmmata: We are withdrawing our Trading Buy on the S&P 500, as our stop-loss of a close below 725 was triggered.
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Sellsaidi meestele võib üldse üht-teist peale tõmmata :-D
