Börsipäev 10. märts
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Tuletame taaskord meelde, et kuna USA läks nädalavahetusel üle suveajale ja EL on seda ise tegemas alles 29. märtsil, on senikaua USA turud eestlaste jaoks avatud ajavahemikus 15.30-22.00. Kes on harjunud tehinguid sisestama viimase tunni jooksul, siis tuleb olla tähelepanelik, et oma tehingutega hiljaks ei jäädaks.
Täna majandusraporteid oodata ei ole ning võrreldes eilsega näeb eelturg oluliselt paem välja. S&P500 +1.9% @ 689 punkti ja NQ +1.5%. -
C on eelturul Panditi sõnavõtu najal viimaste päevade kauplemisvahemikust välja murdnud olles +11.43% tõusus $1.17 tasemel.
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Olgem nüüd ausad - globaalne finantssüsteem on jätkuvalt "parandamata" ning tsükkel jätkab halvenemist. Fed'i plaastrid on samuti nurkadest hakanud lahti tulema:
- mortgage spreadid laienemas;
- LIBOR spreadid kasvamas;
- korporatiivvõlg käest ära andmas viimase aja võite...
- ECB iseenese agressiivsusest ära ehmunud;
Paremaks minemise triggerid oleks võib-olla:
- mõnede suurpankade natsionaliseerimine USAs (hetkel raiutakse koera saba jupikaupa - niikuinii lõpuks natsionaliseeritakse);
- CEE'le helesinisest torust likviidsuse "peale laskmine"
- veel M&A aktiivsust... -
karumõmm: spreadide laienemine võimaldab (riigipoolse odava finantseerimise jätkudes) ise endale tasapisi omakapitali juurde tekitada.
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Citigroup (C) confirms in 8-K first two months of 2009 were profitable; claims to have had "best quarter-to-date performance" since Q307
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möh - Citist tulemas siis ulme squeez ?
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Vikrami kiri töötajatele:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831001/000095012309004333/y75154exv99w1.htm
"First, on capital strength, as you know, the preferred exchange we announced nearly two weeks ago is expected to make Citi the strongest capitalized large U.S. bank as measured by tangible common equity (TCE) and Tier 1 ratios."
"Asset quality: The Fed will conduct stress tests for all large banks in coming weeks. We’ve done our own stress testing using assumptions that are more pessimistic than the Fed has outlined and we are confident about our capital strength."
"In fact, we are profitable through the first two months of 2009 and are having our best quarter-to-date performance since the third quarter of 2007." -
"Citi has $30 billion in loan loss reserves, or 4.3% of loans as of December 31, 2008—which is the highest among large U.S. bank peers. Loan loss reserves are another form of capital. Citi also has $301 billion of assets that have been “ring-fenced” under an agreement with the U.S. government."
"Our pro forma tangible common book value would be $3.82/share assuming maximum preferred conversion." -
Täna pakkuda lausa 3 erinevat intervjuud Bloombergist, mis näevad ette aktsiate, energia ja kulla hinnarallit:
Video 1 - Aktsiaralli järgmiste päevade jooksul
Video 2 - Nafta tõus $55 peale barrelist 2-3 kuu jooksul
Video 3 - Kuld tõuseb $2000 peale untsist aasta lõpuks
Kõik kolm stsenaariumit viitavad sellele, et inflatsioonihirmud ei ole kuhugi kadunud.
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Noh, ma kardan auto alla jääda ja vahest kardan, et maja katuselt võib telliskivi pähe kukkuda? Mis siis? Need on sündmused, mille tõenäosus on nullilähedane. See ei ole nagu teema, millest peaks iga päev rääkima.
Hoolimata sellest tohutust inflatsioonihirmust on meil täna deflatsioon ja mööda seda deflatsioonspiraal liigume järgmised 10 aastat. -
Saksamaa DAX +1.97%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.52%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.48%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.53%
Venemaa MICEX +6.77%
Poola WIG +1.10%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.44%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.08%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.88%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.95%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.21%
Tai Set 50 +1.90%
India Sensex 30 N/A (börs suletud)
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Better Late Than Early
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/10/2009 8:31 AM EDT
Human development is a form of chronological unfairness, since late-comers are able to profit by the labors of their predecessors without paying the same price.
--Alexander Herzen
For weeks now we have been hearing how the market is oversold and due to for a bounce. We have indeed been dropping like a rock ever since the non-announcement of a bank plan by Treasury Secretary Geithner, and despite conditions that are supportive of a bounce, we can't seem to find a catalyst to squeeze the shorts and bring in the buyers.
We started off yesterday in promising fashion, but the bulls had no particular good news to work with and lacked strong conviction. In this environment, traders consistently flip into strength. There is no inclination to build positions and look for sustained upside momentum because there hasn't been any. If you are making money on the upside, you are doing it with some extremely short-term trades.
The dilemma for market players is that looking for some sort of market bounce is a very logical thing to do. Markets seldom move in a straight line for a long time, and when they do, they usually bounce pretty big eventually.
The key is the timing. If you are too early in trying to catch a bounce, you will be in a deep enough of a hole that you need a very big move to just get back to even. If you anticipated a bounce on Monday of last week, you are down 6% as of the close last night.
Unfortunately, traditional Wall Street has a great bias toward buying too early. The folks on Wall Street always want you to be buying, because they need you in the market to earn a living. As a result, they will always be looking for and anticipating market turns.
I believe that when it comes to dealing with a trending market, it is much better to be late than early when it comes to turning point. Trends almost always last longer than you think they will, and even if you are late, you are very likely to still be better off than the folks who bought a week ago and are down 6% or whatever.
Even if you are late to a market turn, a good one will still give you plenty of time to make money. If a market bounce only lasts a day or so, it isn't a major turn anyway. It might be a good trading opportunity but it isn't something that should cause you to amend your respect for the prevailing trend.
Like yesterday, we have a market bounce brewing this morning. There was some news about Citigroup (C) being profitable that is helping the tone, but mostly it looks like folks are just getting tired of things going down and are anxious for some relief. What we should do at this point is see how it develops. Can the bulls actually get their act together and start to turn this market a bit? We'll have some clues today, and if they hold up, then we can start looking for more long exposure.
When it comes to stock market parties, being late isn't very fashionable but it usually is much more profitable.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: JRJC +7.0%, JASO +5.8%, CASY +3.8%, TXN +3.0% (light volume), UTX +1.2%... M&A news: ROH +4.9% (Dow and Rohm and Haas confirm Settlement to Close Acquisition)... Select financial related names trading higher boosted by C commentary confirming the first two months of 2009 were profitable: ING +17.4%, BCS +16.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), ING +15.5%, C +13.3% (confirms in 8-K first two months of 2009 were profitable; claims to have had "best quarter-to-date performance" since Q307), AEG +13.0%, AXA +11.2%, BAC +9.9%, RBS +9.2%, COF +8.8% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), PUK +8.6%, CS +8.2%, JPM +8.2%, HBC +8.2% (HSBC's Flockhart says rights issue has "gone extremely well so far" - DJ), UBS +8.1%, WFC +8.1%, RF +7.6%, KEY +7.4%, USB +7.0%, MS +6.2%, STT +4.5%, GS +4.5%, MBI +2.3% (Warburg Pincus discloses 25.0% stake in amended 13D filing, up from 20.2% previously reported on 02/14/08)... Select semi related names trading higher after TXN narrowed guidance: STM +6.1%, ADI +2.4%, NSM +1.6%, INTC +1.2%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: RTP +12.9%, AAUK +7.9%, BHP +6.7%, MT +5.8%, RIO +3.3%, GOLD +2.5%... Select iron/steel names showing early strength: X +5.9%, AKS +5.3%, NUE +4.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS)... Select oil/gas names trading higher: E +4.9%, COP +2.3%, TOT +2.0%, XOM +1.9%, MRO +1.8%, RDS.A +1.8%, CVX +1.6%... Select drybulk shipping names trading higher: DRYS +10.8%, EXM +7.4%, FRO +7.4%, GNK +5.2%... Other news: RMBS +20.4% (Rambus and Hynix agree on damages and terms for compulsory license), CAT +7.0% (still checking for anything specific), PALM +4.7% (announces pricing and increased size of public offering; prices 23.125 mln common shares at $6.00/share), NOK +4.5% (still checking), GE +4.3% (still checking for anything specific), AZZ +2.1% (will replace AHC in the S&P SmallCap 600)... Analyst comments: BIDU +4.5% (trading higher premarket; hearing tier 1 firm raised BIDU tgt to $185), DUK +2.8% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), STP +2.7% (upgraded to Market Weight at Thomas Weisel), ED +1.8% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse). -
martk, ma juba mõtlesin, et sa räägid mõistlikku juttu - ja siis lubasid äkki 10 aastat kestvat deflatsioonispiraali... Milline mõttekäik sind küll sellise konstruktsioonini viis? Kas sa sellele ei mõtle, et inimkond ei kannata sellist asja välja ning tõenäolisemalt minnakse teineteise kõri kallale ning rebooditakse ohvriterohkelt süsteemi, kui kannatatakse 10-aastast tsüklit.
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Nafta $49.3 peal. Front month põhjad jäid $32-33 juurde? Seega vargsi on tõustud põhjadest juba ca 50%.
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varsti on oodata ilmselt tanklas hinnatõusu (dollar on kah tugev olnud). võtsin täna paagi täis.
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Karum6mm
In his memoirs, Beckoning Frontiers, Merriner Eccles, the FED chairman from 1934-1948, states this about what casued the Great Depression:
As mass production has to be accompanied by mass consumption, mass consumption, in turn, implies a distribution of wealth -- not of existing wealth, but of wealth as it is currently produced -- to provide men with buying power equal to the amount of goods and services offered by the nation s economic machinery. Instead of achieving that kind of distribution, a giant suction pump had by 1929-30 drawn into a few hands an increasing portion of currently produced wealth. This served them as capital accumulations. But by taking purchasing power out of the hands of mass consumers, the savers denied to themselves the kind of effective demand for their products that would justify a reinvestment of their capital accumulations in new plants. In consequence, as in a poker game where the chips were concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, the other fellows could stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit ran out, the game stopped.
The great irony is that future wages for all will be considerably less: those seemingly privileged high paying jobs will disappear as businesses begin to adjust to deflation as Eccles ponts out:
Earnings began to disappear, requiring economies of all kinds in the wages, salaries, and time of those employed. And thus again the vicious circle of deflation was closed until one third of the entire working population was unemployed, with our national income reduced by fifty per cent, and with the aggregate debt burden greater than ever before, not in dollars, but measured by current values and income that represented the ability to pay. Fixed charges, such as taxes, railroad and other utility rates, insurance and interest charges, clung close to the 1929 level and required such a portion of the national income to meet them that the amount left for consumption of goods was not sufficient to support the population.
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Meil on juhtunud sama asi, tähendab, mitte sama asi vaid täpselt see sama olukord, mis viis "Suure Depressioonini", kuid seekord veelgi suuremas - globaalses - mõõtmes.
Ma ei tähtsustaks 1930-ndate perioodi üle, sest krediidimulle on ajaloos küllalt olnud ning alati on põhjus ja tagajärg sama. Ning ikka ja jälle astuvad inimesed sama reha otsa.
Eesti keeles öeldes, kapitali akumuleerijad hävitasid aastakümnete jooksul ühiskonna enamiku ostujõu ja peavad selle peo arve nüüd ise kinni plekkima. Mingit valikut ei ole. Selle kriisi käigus kaotavad kõige rohkem kapitali omanikud (sponsorid) ja kõige vähem kaotavad vaesed ja keskklass (kellele tehti joogid välja).
Rebootimine antud juhul saab tähendada ainult, seda, et rikaste varad riigistatakse (keskklassi laenude tagasimakseid vähendatakse 50% või ei peagi tagasi maksma). Ja kui nad (kapitali omanikud/laenuandjad) arvavad, et terve ühiskond peaks tasuta tööle hakkama, siis tõstetakse nad ühiskonna enamuse poolt jõuga varadest välja. Igal juhul käimasolev sotsiaalse meeleolu trend loob tulevikus soodsa pinnase reziimi muutusteks - mitte ainult USA-s vaid globaalselt. -
No seda ma väidangi, et tänapäeval ei tapeta enam odade ja kahuritega, vaid tuumapommidega - seega 10 a deflatsioonispiraali on ilmne liialdus.
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http://www.rallymonkey.com/oldvideo.php
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Peale tummapommi tulevad odad ja vibud.
Kes sõda igatseb, mingu kriisikolletesse. Sealt naastes räägitakse teist juttu. -
Mina sõda ei igatse.
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Tuumapomm, vastupidi, on parim kindlustus sellele, et sellist suurekaliibrilist madinat nähtavas tulevikus ei juhtu. Parim asi, mis valge mehega juhtunud pärast Hiina kaotust oopiumisõdades ja enne Iisraeli riigi sündi.
Samas muidugi, you cannot hug puppies with nuclear arms? -
No, aga siis pole ju midagi lihtsamat , kui keskklassile ja vaestele raha kätte anda. Ostavad peale väikeste haavade lakkumise taas varad üles, kes ees, see mees , sest mis sa rahaga ikka muud peale hakkad ? Raha saavad neile kätte anda aga jällegi - kes? - suured ja rikkad. Varade omanikud, raha omanikud, raha emiteerijad. Ehk oleme taas alguses ja täpselt sama ringi peal. Ehk ka lootused pööblil rikkaks saada - olles täie rinnaga ainult pööbel ja mitte midagi enamat - on määratud samasse kohta, kus ka varem ajaloos.
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Kes tahab sõda, siis enne peab toimuma see:
two tribes-1
ja pärast tere tulemast raskekahurid
two tribes-2 -
Nasdaq tõuseb 7% ja keegi ei ütle selle ckohta ühtegi sõna. Jutt käib vaid tuumasõjast.
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Kõigil on Bloombergi ja CNBC jahumisest ( best day of year ) juba siiber ees, et ei taha sellest siin kuulutama hakata.
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Ja seda enam, et kindlasti kukub ta kohe sama palju tagasi.
