Börsipäev 11. märts
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Eilse USA turgude võimsa ralli peale on ka Aasia märgatavalt plussis, suurtest turgudest on enam tõusnud Jaapani Nikkei 225, kaubeldes 4.5% kõrgemal. Lõuna-Korea Kospi on +3.2% ning Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.6%.
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Kas ameerika aktsiaturul puudub üksikaktsial samasugune piirang nagu eestis + - 15% päevas
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Eastern Europe to Avoid Default, Rebound ‘Strongly,’ Mirow Says 2009-03-10 18:30:02.0 GMT
By Daryna Krasnolutska and Halia Pavliva
March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Eastern European economies will avoid debt defaults and “bounce back strongly” after the global financial crisis, said Thomas Mirow, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
“What we are now facing in some countries in eastern Europe is a severe recession but not a collapse,” Mirow said today in a speech at the London School of Economics released in advance to the media. “It would however be a grave mistake to paint the future in colors too bleak. The situation today is serious, but it is manageable.”
The economies of former communist countries have been shaken by the drying up of credit and investment after years of unprecedented growth as the region integrated with the wealthier West. Some, including Hungary, Latvia, and Ukraine were forced to take international bailouts to stabilize their finances.
Ukraine faces an economic contraction of as much as 10 percent in 2009 after nine years of growth. The Hungarian economy may slump 3.5 percent this year and record its worst performance in 16 years.
“There are strong underlying fundamentals in eastern Europe which remain in place and need to be protected,” said Mirow.
“We believe that eastern Europe will come out of the present crisis, perhaps bruised and battered, but not beaten.”
The London-based bank, set up to help former communist economies in transition, is urging the West to help the East.
‘All of Europe’
“Maintaining the flow of credit and not retrenching behind national borders is crucial for all of Europe,” said Mirow.
“Shutting the door to our neighbors now will also mean shutting the door to our own future.”
Ukraine is “the biggest concern” as it “is confronted with a multitude of problems,” said Mirow.
The nation’s economic meltdown is aggravated by political turbulence caused by struggles between Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko over economic policies, which are hampering decision-making.
The government’s plan to run a state budget deficit of 5 percent of gross domestic product this year has jeopardized cooperation with the International Monetary Fund.
The Washington-based lender approved a $16.4 billion loan to Ukraine in November and disbursed the first installment of $4.5 billion. The second tranche, expected in mid-February, has been delayed indefinitely.
To get a resumption of IMF lending Yushchneko and Timoshenko pledged last week to hold “a joint position.”
“We have received the joint declaration of the authorities regarding their commitment to the program and we have welcomed this,” Conny Lotze, spokeswoman at the IMF office in Washington D.C., said via e-mail, answering Bloomberg questions. “We are continuing discussions with the authorities on specific measures.”
Mirow said the EBRD is “encouraged by the recent declarations of unity and the imminent return to Kiev of an IMF delegation. The stability of Ukraine is of crucial importance for the future of all Europe.”
For Related News and Information:
More stories on the EBRD: NI EBRD
Stories about east European banks: TNI EEU BNKGlobal credit crunch: CCRU Emerging markets view: EMMV On the EBRD: 6044Z LN DES Bailout & Rescue Programs: RESQ
--With reporting by Eduard Gismatullin and Agnes Lovasz in London, Balazs Penz in Budapest. Editors: Chris Kirkham
To contact the reporter on this story:
Daryna Krasnolutska in Kiev at +38-044-490-1252 or dkrasnolutsk@bloomberg.net Halia Pavliva in New York at +1-212-617-72-21 or hpavliva@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Alan Crosby at +420-2-2442-2112 or
acrosby1@bloomberg.net
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Ja tasakaalustame eelmise uudise ka kohe ära...
How Low Can the Stock Markets Go? Much Lower
Nouriel Roubini | Mar 9, 2009
For the last six months this author has been arguing that, in spite of the sharp fall in US and global equities there were significant downside risk to stock markets. Thus, repeated bear market rallies would fizzle out under the onslaught of worse than expected macro news, earnings news and financial markets/firms shocks. They way we put is very simple:
If you take a macro approach earnings per share (EPS) of S&P 500 firms will be – quite realistically in 2009 - in the $ 50 to 60 range (I say realistically as some may even argue that in a severe recession they could fall to $40). Then, the question is what the multiple, i.e. the price earnings (P/E) ratio will be on such earnings. It is realistic to expect that the multiple may fall in the 10 to 12 range in a U-shaped recession. Then, even in the best scenario (earnings at 60 and P/E at 12) the S&P index would be at 720. If either earnings are closer to 50 or the P/E ratio is lower at 10 then the S&P could fall to 600 (12 x 50 or 10 x 60) or even to 500 (10 x 50). Equivalently the Dow (DJIA) would be at least as low as 7000 and possibly as low as 6000 or 5000. And using a similar logic we argued that global equities – following the US - had another 20% plus downside risk.
These predictions were made when the S&P 500 was close to 900 and the DIJA was close at 9000. This basic macro approach was the reason why we argued that the latest bear market sucker’s rally – the one going from late November 2008 to early January 2009 – would fizzle out and new lows would be reached. Indeed, like previous bear market rallies of the last year this one went bust – falling over 20% - and the DJIA and the S&P broke below the 7000 and 700 upper limit of our range for US equities. With the DJIA and the S&P now well below the “7” range the next test for the markets may be 6000 and 600 for the two indices. -
perli, USA turul piiranguid ei ole.
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see oleks muidugi üleüldse huvitav kontseptsioon, et aktsiate hinnad peavad summaarselt olema vastavad nende jooksva aasta kasumile. Kui mälu ei peta, siis Suure Depressiooniaegses aktsiaturu põhjas oli P/E mingi 29.
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kristjan, sa ju tead, et on tsükligurud ja meetodigurud. Mõlema staatus kehtib seni, kuni kas tsükkel või meetod. Pole oluline, mis argumendid neil on, oluline on, et nad suuna õigesti suudavad "ette ennustada." Roubini võib täitsa vabalt olla tsükliguru.
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Roubini on väitnud enda investeerimisstiiliks "passiivne investeerimine". Seega ta ei pretendeeri kuidagi tsükliguru staatusele.
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Roubini investeerimisstiilist
Especially since Roubini himself hasn't bought or sold a thing in response to his own forecast: He has all of his money in a diversified portfolio of index funds. "That's how I've invested for the past 20 years and how I'll invest for the next 20," he says. "I take a long-term view."
Hoolimata sellest, et Roubini sünged ennustused on viimase aasta või pooleteise jooksul täide läinud, ei pea mees end nii targaks, et teha investeerimisotsuseid ennustuste põhjal ja on valinud pikaajalise passiivse investeerimisstrateegia - investeerib regulaarselt kogu aeg osa oma sissetulekust hajutatud aktsiaportfelli.
Igav, kas pole? Kõlab peaaegu nagu pensionifond :) -
ehk siis talitage minu sõnade mitte minu tegude järgi
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Tsükliguru staatuse välja teenimine ei eelda minu meelest investeerimist. Võtame või kasvõi kogemata tsükli olemuse ära tabanud lihtsast palgatöölisest makroanalüütiku.
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Hiinas toimuvatest arengutest kirjutasin mõned päevad tagasi siin. Täna kirjutab Bloomberg Hiina veebruarikuisest vase nõudlusest, mis on võrreldes jaanuariga kasvanud üle 40% ja jõudnud rekordtasemele. Hiina valitsuse poolt vastu võetud majanduse stimuleerimispakett on siinkohal lisanõudluse tekitajaks. Bloombergist saab lugeda lähemalt.
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ARC1T -ga tehti tehing: 2009-03-11__12:07:04__ARC1T__EUR__0.06__2520630__STND__YHI-YHI. Kas STND tehingud võivad 15% limiidi piirest välja minna? Limiidi vahemik on 0.07 .... 0.09 EUR.
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OX standard ehk endises mõistes blokktehingu künnisest suurema kogusega tehingu võib teha suvaliselt hinnatasemelt
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Protsentuaalsed limiidid on muidugi imelised asjad. Nimelt ei saaks neid lõpuni järgides kunagi jõuda 0.00ni. Liikudes ühe sendi kaupa, tuleb piir juba väga kiiresti ette.
0.10->0.09 on -10%
0.09->0.08 on -11.1%
0.08->0.07 on -12.5%
0.07->0.06 on -14.3%
0.06->0.05 on -16.67%
0.05->0.04 on -20%
0.04->0.03 on -25%
0.03->0.02 on -33.3%
0.02->0.01 on -50%
0.01->0.00 on -100% -
Üle hulga aja näeme, et üks finantsasutus on teisele antavat soovitust tõstmas. Goldman Sachs tõstab täna Morgan Stanley (MS) aktsia soovituse neutraalse pealt 'osta' peale.
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See jah ammu teada, et aktsiad ei saa -15 prossase limiidi korral kunagi maksta alla 6 sendi ;)
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Kolme komakohaga hinnanoteerimine on Eesti börsi aktsiahindu vaadates minu arvates muutumas üha mõttekamaks.
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Miks nad reverse splitti ei tee?
Näeksime jälle rasvaseid 10 euroseid aktsiaid:) -
ÕS:
mõttekas - <8: -ka, -kat> aruka mõttega, otstarbekas. ▪ Mõttekam on teed küsida kui valesti minna. Mõttekalt. Mõttekus
mõtekas - Päring ei andnud tulemusi -
: )
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"Mõttekamaks"-krt kas see mingi släng või-haha
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Apple (AAPL) jätkuvalt ei maga. iPod shuffle muutunud veelgi väiksemaks.
Co introduced the all-new iPod shuffle, the world's smallest music player at nearly half of the size of the previous model, and the first music player that talks to you. The revolutionary new VoiceOver feature enables iPod shuffle to speak your song titles, artists and playlist names. The third generation iPod shuffle is significantly smaller than a AA battery, holds up to 1,000 songs and is easier to use with all of the controls conveniently located on the earphone cord. With the press of a button, you can play, pause, adjust volume, switch playlists and hear the name of the song and artist. The third generation 4GB iPod shuffle is now shipping and comes in silver or black for a suggested price of $79 through the Apple Store, Apple's retail stores and Apple Authorized Resellers.
Meenutab Ford T aegu - 'you an have it in any color as long as it is black'
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Apple magab küll, hommikul olla Apple Store maas olnud :)
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See on tavaline praktika uue toote väljalaskmisel...
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Fucking wonderland see Talna börs ikka. Keegi sigudik on massiivse EUR 7.50 käibe juures ostnud 10 Kalevi aktsiat ja langetanud sellega hinda 10%.
Huvitav, kui lepiks sõbraga kokku ning teeks kümme päeva järjest mõne rämeda spreadiga aktsiaga seda trikki, et langetaks päeva lõpus mingi tilulilu tehinguga hinna alumisse limiiti kinni. Vist oleks selle aktsiaga krõska kah - keegi ju enam ei nõustuks müüma sellise absurdse hinnaga ja hind jääkski igavesest ajast igaveseks maapinnale lebama. -
Kruuda nii teebki, et siis 6 kuu pärast vägisi aktsia välja osta.
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Baltic Dry Index - viimastel päevadel üha uued tipud:
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UBSi hinnasiht S&P500le - 1100 punkti... 50% tõusu praeguste tasemete pealt.
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USA aktsiaturg jätkab eilse 6%lise ralli järel opitmistlikult. S&P500 futuurid on +1.3% @ 725 punkti nign Nasdaq100 +1.4% @ 1121 punkti. Nafta on 2.5% miinuses ja kaupleb $44.5 peal.
Saksamaa DAX +1.62%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.41%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.23%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.30%
Venemaa MICEX -1.00%
Poola WIG +1.64%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +4.55%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.02%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.91%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.16%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.06%
Tai Set 50 -0.84%
India Sensex 30 N/A (börs suletud)
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UBSi S&P hinnasiht on 15 P/E pealt.. eks see jää igaühe enda otsustada, kas 15 korda kasumit on normaalne maksta.
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Keep Your Cool and Watch the Action
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/11/2009 8:27 AM EDT
The more tranquil a man becomes, the greater is his success, his influence, his power for good. Calmness of mind is one of the beautiful jewels of wisdom.
-- James Allen
It isn't surprising that many investors are feeling great relief after the best rally of the year on Tuesday. Given the pace of the decline since the fumbled bank bailout speech by Treasury Secretary Geithner, there has been some real fear and despair building. We were going down so far so fast that a good oversold bounce was widely expected, but when we couldn't seem to manage to attract buyers, the bleak mood deepened. Given the intensity of the negativity, it is not at all surprising that there is some celebration now that we finally had a strongly positive day.
The important thing for us to focus on now is how we navigate going forward. I absolutely cringe when I hear talk now about the market doubling in a year, generational lows, and how it's clear sailing as all the pieces fall into place. Maybe, but all we have had so far is one very good day within a horrible downtrend. That shouldn't come as some amazing surprise. It is what happens quite often in a bear market.
The million-dollar question is whether the character of the market will now start to improve and how much more upside can be expected.
The way we answer that question is to remain tranquil and calm and survey the action as it unfolds. Don't lose sight of the big picture. It is still extremely poor, and while we all are hopeful that better days lie ahead, it is very unrealistic to think there won't continue to be some significant struggles, if not downright failures. It would be folly to go "all in" and expect to ride the market elevator straight up.
The very favorable thing about a day like yesterday is that it is the necessary first step in creating a potential upside. If we don't immediately roll over and give it all back, we now have the opportunity to finally see some charts start to improve. If lows hold and basing action commences, we will finally have greater opportunities to build positions we can have some comfort with holding for more than a few days.
At this point, yesterday's rally and some follow-through this morning is just a good opportunity for flippers who have been stalking a countertrend rally. Whether it turn into something more, we will see. Stay calm and watch it unfold. Stick a toe in and take some smaller positions if that is your style and inclination, but don't get sucked into the celebration about how the worst is over.
Now is not the time for great optimism or pessimism. It is the time to measure character. The bulls seized a very logical opportunity within a negative market environment. Now they have to show us some real conviction. Set the emotions aside and see if they can do the job. -
ainuke probleem on selles, et P/Ed kipuvad turgude põhjas kõrged olema ja tipus madalad. 1929-1932 oli keskmine P/E põhjas 29, see oli veel aeg, kus isegi USAs peeti P/E 10 kalliks.
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PE-suhe kipub siis kõrge olema, kui kasumeid praktiliselt pole. S&P puhul täna veel kasumit natuke teenitakse.
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1Q09 E võib päris madal olla.
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Kas ma olen ainuke, kes arvab, et Rev Shark on üks hullemaid bottom fishereid üldse (ehkki ta ise sellise tegevuse eest hoiatab)? Tema hea soovitus on, et oota kuni turud tõusma hakkavad ja siis osta. Natuke tüütama hakkab juba.
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Rev Sharki ei maksa ülemäära tõsiselt võtta. Pigem sentimendi-indikaatorina.
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panic
Mis sina siis arvasid. Püüad põrkeid, kuni raha otsa saab ja oled püksata, kui tõus algab. -
Ehk siis NOTE TO LHV : kopeerige siia igapäevaselt selliste meeste kolumneid, kes jätkusuutlikult korralikult pappi teenivad :-D
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Sellised mehed kirjutavad kolumne? Paulson võiks LHV-le commenti poetada igal hommikul. Tudoril läheb päris hästi see aasta -- väike igapäevane raport siinsele rahvale oleks ju päris tore.
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Merriman on teinud LHV Pro idee Imaxi (IMAX) kohta enne homseid tulemusi ootustest kokkuvõtte. Briefing vahendab:
Merriman notes that IMAX is scheduled to report 4Q08 results tomorrow morning before the open. Firm's ests of $33.2 mln in revs and EPS of ($0.08) are both lower than the consensus ests of $37.3 mln and ($0.05), due mainly to firm's projections of a sequential decline in film revs from Q3 to Q4 as well as still elevated operating expenses due to the timing of the rollout of joint venture digital networks with AMC Entertainment and Regal Entertainment (RGC) as well as the launch of the digital projection system. Although firm does not expect IMAX to provide full guidance for FY09, they do expect them to reiterate that the co will reach profitability in FY09. Firm is currently projecting a move into profitability in 3Q09, but depending on the strength of the 2Q09 box office (with its strong slate of films), firm would not surprised if profitability was reached in Q2. Firm reiterates IMAX as a "Top Stock Pick" for 2009.
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S&P P/E kohta täpsemalt:
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS -
Tänan vastuse eest selle STND tehingu asjus. :)
