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Börsipäev 19. märts

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Kui eile ootasid paljud kauplejad, et turgudel oleks aeg pärast tugevat rallit põhjadest veidike puhata, siis liiga vara lühikeseks müüjad loputati Föderaalreservi $300 miljardilise võlakirjade ostuteatega väga korralikult välja. Sellegipoolest on tõenäoline, et eilsest optimismist hoolimata võetakse nüüd veidike ettevaatlikum joon - püstloodis ei saa kogu aeg üles minna ning väike rahunemine tuleks turule kasuks.

    Täna kell 14.30 Eesti aja järgi teatakse esmaste töötuabirahade taotlejate number - konsensusootus 655 000 (eelmine nädal 654 000). Veebruarikuu juhtivate indikaatorite näit tuleb Eesti aja järgi kell 16.00, millelt oodatakse -0.6% (jaanuaris oli +0.4%).
  • Peale eilset teadet, et IBM võib olla ostmas Suni (JAVA), tõusis viimase aktsia ligi 77%. See tõmbas taas tähelepanu tehnoloogiasektori ülevõttudele. Ka varem on spekuleeritud, et Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) võiks osta F5 Networksi (FFIV) või näiteks Brocade'i (BRCD). Lisaks on räägitud Cisco (CSCO) huvist EMC (EMC) vastu. Kellele taolised võimalused huvi pakuvad, tasub kodutööd juba varakult tegema hakata.
  • Seda, millist veresauna suutis valuutaturul eile Föderaalreserv tekitada, näeb alloleva graafiku pealt - kahe päevaga on dollar euro vastu nõrgenenud ca 4%:

  • Mmmmõnus! :-D

    I love the scent of freshly printed money in the morning.

    :-D
  • Ja ühtlasi tõmmati Šveitsi keskpangale kott pähe.
  • UBS ütles euro 3% hüppe peale nii: EUR could be under pressure in next few days, ECB could alter rhetoric, USD sell off likely to subside
  • kui täna/homme püsitakse 34/35 kandis, ootaks järgmise 5-10 päeva jooksul tõusu jätku*

    *naised saunas rääkisid
  • Citi Files Registration Statement for Exchange Offer 

    Citi plans to file shortly two preliminary proxy statements with the SEC. One preliminary proxy proposes to amend Citi’s Charter to, among other things, increase the number of authorized shares of its common stock and authorize the Board of Directors to execute a reverse stock split of its common stock.

  • Oletame, et 5 aktsiast tehakse 1. Mis juhtub kui mul on näiteks 2 C aktsiat?
  • Natuke short C @ 3.18.. konverteerimisega peaks short squeeze läbi saama, sest aktsiate hulk nii müügiks kui shortidele laenamiseks peaks kasvama.. Senine squeeze oli suuresti sellest tingitud, et vanu shorte kutsuti tagasi ja uute jaoks ei olnud kuskilt aktsiaid laenata.
    Not a high conviction trade.
  • Initial Claims 646K vs 655K consensus, prior revised to 658K from 654K
  • GE Capital will be profitable in Q1 & full year...
  • Frothy After the Fed
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/19/2009 8:14 AM EDT

    Capital isn't scarce; vision is.
    -- Sam Walton

    Market players were caught by surprised Wednesday afternoon when the Fed announced that it intended to buy mortgage securities and U.S. Treasury debt. Interest rates fell sharply and the market reacted positively.

    The initial criticism of the move was that it was likely to be inflationary and would hurt the dollar, but fans of the move say it is more important to inflate the economy at this point and that the Fed can reverse the moves when signs of inflation develop. This is just another in a long line of government decisions to replace one form of debt with another in hopes of creating greater short-term liquidity that will boost the economy immediately.

    While plenty of folks can debate the economic merits of what is happening, it is our job to stay focused on the market and to try to extract some profits. It certainly has not been an easy market. Emotions are running high as the news flow moves us around. We've had very big, sharp moves that have allowed little chance for positioning. If you have been looking for charts with good, solid bases and support, you won't find many yet.

    The major indices were already becoming overbought and running into resistance before the Fed announcement yesterday, and once the news hit we had an obvious short squeeze and some panic-buying by underinvested longs. While we certainly can continue to go straight up without a rest, it is extremely hard to justify entry into many of these stocks, which have been going up on declining volume.

    Right now there is a lot of optimism over how this flood of liquidity is going to boost the economy, but the reason such a move isn't considered to be an immediate cause of inflation is because our economy is so poor. So while we are celebrating the government moves now, we will likely still have to deal with plenty of poor economic news and earnings reports like the one we are seeing from FedEx (FDX) this morning.

    My goal is to continue to look for good chart setups, but until the market pulls back a bit, we aren't going to see many. One group that had already pulled back and reversed yesterday is gold. I suspect this is going to be the group that attracts trading interest in the near term, but if it turns into a leader, that may not bode well for the broad indices.

    We have weekly unemployment coming up, but the bulls are feeling pretty good again in the early going with Citigroup (C) announcing a reverse split and lots of hope that the gusher of new liquidity will drive interest rates even lower and power consumer buying. The bulls have the momentum, but we've gone awfully far very fast, and new buys are going to be tough to find until we take a rest.

    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PUK +20.2%, ORCL +8.0% (declares first-ever quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share), HUM +7.2%... Select financials showing continued strength: LYG +24.8%, AIG +22.3%, AEG +14.3%, GNW +13.0%, AXA +10.8%, ING +9.7%, DB +9.3%, HBC +7.6%, AZ +6.8%, RBS +5.1%, BAC +5.1%, CS +4.8%, XL +4.5%, FITB +3.6%, NBTB +2.6% (will replace Itron in the S&P SmallCap 600), UBS +2.0%, LNC +1.9%, BCS +1.1%... Select oil/gas related names trading higher with strength in crude and weakness in dollar: RIG +2.9%, CHK +2.5%, E +2.1%, WFT +2.0%, BP +1.4%, XOM +1.2%, RDS.A +1.0%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: MT +5.8%, IAG +4.3%, PAAS +3.7%, FCX +3.1%, AUY +2.6%, RIO +2.5%, BHP +2.4%, GOLD +1.6%, RTP +1.4%... Other news: AGM +16.5% (still checking), MRX +5.6% (Medicis and Teva announce settlement agreement), AA +4.0% (announces it has agreed to sell 150 mln shares of common stock at $5.25/share; announces convertible debt offerings; also upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), ORLY +3.5% (will replace NE in the S&P 500), SAP +3.1% (still checking for anything specific), TWC +2.3% (will replace DDR in the S&P 500), WMI +1.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: GXP +5.5% (initiated with Buy at Jesup&Lamont), ELN +5.1% (Tysabri likely to remain viable treatment alternative despite oral agents - Leerink Swann), LOW +1.8% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Cowen).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MLHR -7.9%, CLC -7.6% (light volume), FDX -5.0%, PRGN -4.5%, CTAS -4.0% (light volume), CHL -2.8%, NKE -2.7%... Other news: DDR -8.6% (TWC will replace DDR in the S&P 500), ARE -7.8% (announces it is commencing a 4.5 mln common share offering), KB -3.2% (still checking), UPS -3.1% (ticking lower in sympathy with FDX), AU -2.6% (still checking)... Analyst comments: GGG -8.4% (downgraded to Underperform at Baird), SOHU -5.5% (downgraded to Sell at Pali Research and downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), TEX -3.0% (downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia).
  • viisik C/AIG/BAC,FRE/FNM endiselt rallib
    shorte pigistatakse:)
  • Nafta teeb täna tõelist rallit - üle 8% plussis.

    Saksamaa DAX +3.49%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +2.63%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +2.64%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +2.30%

    Venemaa MICEX +6.10%

    Poola WIG +1.96%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.33%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.10%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.88%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +3.23%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.17%

    Tai Set 50 +0.37%

    India Sensex 30 +0.28%

  • kas USO ja nafta seoses pole, kuna uso on üsna väike tõusja täna (0,8%) nafta (8%) kõrval!?
  • Philadelphia Fed -35.0 vs -39.0 consensus, prior -41.3
    Leading Indicators -0.4% vs -0.6% consensus, prior revised to +0.1 % from +0.4%
  • Maagaas on täna tegemas vähemasti viimase aasta suurimat tõusu, olles üle 10% plussis. Sel ajal, kui nafta on jõudsalt ülespoole liikunud, tegi maagaas veel alles eile uusi põhju. Kui nafta puhul on üheks parimaks börsilkaubeldavaks fondiks USO, siis maagaasi puhul UNG.

  • Ei tea, kas finantsis läheb kasumi võtmiseka ???
  • jim
    nice short C
    kogemustega daytraderid on selle tickeri pealt vist küll väga ilusti teeninud? :)
    disclaimer:
    positiivne kadedus
  • Leid, mõnitav või? :)
    C oli just vastupidi masendav käkk. Lõpuks sain paar dollarit kasumit, aga see avanemise squeeze just väga meeldiv ei olnud. Kokkuvõttes väga nigel treid.
  • C õhtuks jälle plussis! Kannatust vaid !
  • ei, sorry
    ma mõtlesin, et istud ikka sees ja hõõrud käsi:)
    päeva lõpuks võiks ikka 2 piirimaile luurama minna
  • jim
    disclaimer:
    ma ei mõnita kunagi kedagi
  • to leid
    C oli vahepeal 4$ all,ehk jim ehk hinnaguliselt 25% miinuses
    Kui palju on foorumis siinset rahvast,kes selliset "hetkelist " punast rahulikutl suudavat vaadata..
    Pigem tõmmatakse ikka kott pähe(stop lõhkeb) ja siis võib alustada langust..
  • Võtsin C 2,82 pealt juurde,ei kannatanud enam oodata. Vist ikka vara!
  • Ei saa pihta? See C on nagu üks optsiooni mäng. Optsioone on võimalik võtta ju igasuguse alusvara peale ja seal on hoopis paremad võimalused raha kaotada ja võita.
    Citi käive on miljardites mehed, kas te loodate seal tõesti ellu jääda?
  • Näiteks
    SPY märtsi 72 call kõikus 09.03.09 1,5 ja 0,75 vahel. Kui ma oleks sealt ostnud, siis maksab see praegu 7,1, tipus oli 8,8. Tootlus kaks korda suurem, kui Citiga.

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