Börsipäev 25. märts
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Jaapan on avaldanud oma ekspordinumbrid, mis oodatult on üsna kohutavad. Eksport on aasta tagusega langenud 49.4%, kusjuures autode müük koguni 70.9%. Kaupade väljavedu kõige suuremasse sihtriiki USAsse langes veebruaris üle 58% võrreldes aasta varasemaga. Pole siis ime, et esimese kvartali majanduslanguseks oodatakse 12% - sarnast numbrit võrreldes 2008. aasta kolme viimase kuuga.
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Obama eilsed kommentaarid tugevast nõudlusest dollari järgi ning täna avaldatud Saksa äriusaldust peegeldava IFO indeksi jätkuv langus märtsis (veebruari 82.6-lt 82.1 peale) on aidanud dollaril veidi tugevneda pärast FED-i sõnumeid eelmisel nädalal.
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Tund aega enne turu avanemist ehk kell 14.30 avaldatakse USA kestvuskaupade tellimuste muutus veebruarikuu jaoks (ootus -2.5%, jaanuaris oli -5.2%; ilma transpordita on ootuseks -2.0% vs jaanuari -2.5%).
Uute majade müüginumbrid veebruarikuu aastase tempo jaoks tulevad kell 16 - ootuseks 300 000 vs jaanuari müügitempo 309 000. -
Huvitav kokkusattumus:
Nii Eesti Ehitus kui Eesti Ekspress praegu ühes hinnas ja ka tipp oli mõlemal kunagi umbes 7 euri. -
natuke aega tagasi oli kolmel tabelis kõrvutioleval real - blt, eeg ja eeh ask üks ja sama - 0,64.
Huvitav kuidas olukord 3 kuu pärast... -
WN, mida siis prognoosid? eeh jääb üksi üles...
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February Durable Goods ex-trans +3.9% vs -2.0% consensus, prior revised to -5.9% from -2.5%.
February Durable Goods Orders +3.4% vs -2.5% consensus, prior revised to -7.3% from -5.2%. -
Panen siia ka Briefingu graafiku yoy kestvuskaupade tellimuste muutusega, kust on viimase aja langus väga hästi näha. Kuigi ühe kuu ulatuses võivad näidud väga laialt kõikuda, siis veebruarikuu number annab lootust vähem süngetele aegadele.
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Tasapisi on USA turud kestvuskaupade numbrite peale ülespoole liikunud, kuid usun, et paljud ootavad uute majade müüginumbri näitu ja seda, kas olemasolevate majade oodatust paremad müüginumbrid tõlgenduvad ka oodatust paremates uute majade müüginumbrites või mitte. Hetkel S&P500 +0.6% @ 808 punkti, Nasdaq100 +0.5% @ 1242 punkt ning nafta -2.5% @ $52.65.
Saksamaa DAX -0.48%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.25%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.99%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.21%
Venemaa MICEX +1.71%
Poola WIG +1.92%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.10%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.07%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.01%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.45%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.67%
Tai Set 50 -0.25%
India Sensex 30 +2.08%
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Still a Flipper's Market
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/25/2009 8:26 AM EDT
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program.
-- Bob Wells
Now that the U.S. government has committed about $12 trillion to various programs to shore up our economy, the big question for investors is whether it is going to create a lasting turn in the stock market. There has been much hope recently that the bottom is in and that the flood of new capital that is being thrown at our various problems will finally generate some upside momentum.
In the last two weeks we have leaped forward on a number of government announcements. The bears have been unable to regain their footing, and underinvested bulls are scrambling as there has been a new program or ideas every few days.
While the upside momentum is certainly a positive, the move isn't that convincing. It has come on pretty unimpressive volume, and there has yet to be any good consolidation. A healthy market will pull back from time to time as short-term traders exit and the bigger money looks to buy values at lower prices.
The major indices still have plenty of technical overhead to contend with; it becomes more severe in the area around 825 on the S&P 500. We have certainly expended plenty of energy celebrating the positive government news, but now we are moving to the point where we need to see the economy respond favorably and some optimism when earnings season starts.
It continues to be a tricky market to trade, and if you aren't flipping -- especially some of the smaller-caps -- you can be burned quickly. The big positive is that good charts continue to develop, but they are pushed around randomly by the news flow and make the building of positions difficult unless you have a large appetite for volatility.
My game plan is to stay focused on developing charts and look for some themes in commodities. I will keep a very short-term posture and won't hesitate to visit the short side if we start to see the indices falter more. The lack of volume out there and they celebration that the government is ending the bear market are my major worries about this market.
I'm on a limited schedule but will be checking in later. Good luck and go get 'em.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Select financial related names showing strength: FIG +13.8%, FITB +7.0%, ING +7.0%, AEG +6.6%, CIT +5.4%, BCS +5.0%, BAC +3.9% (Bank of America, Citi buying distressed MBS's - NY Post), WFC +3.7%, C +3.7% (Bank of America, Citi buying distressed MBS's - NY Post), BCS +3.6%, HIG +3.0%, CS +2.8%, BX +2.2%, MS +1.9% (Mitsubishi Financial, Morgan Stanley near Japan securities deal, according to source - Reuters.com), JPM +1.6%, USB +1.4%, GS +1.0% (initiated with Hold at Rochedale)... Select oil/gas related names trading higher: SNP +3.2%, E +3.1%, HON +1.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), TOT +1.4%, RDS.A +1.1%... Other news: CBG +26.7% (announces credit agreement amendment to provide flexibility during economic recession; also upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan and upgraded to Outperform at JMP), BBI +16.4% (Blockbuster and TiVo confirm agreement to make BLOCKBUSTER OnDemand available through the TiVo service and to promote TiVo DVRs throughout retail stores nationwide), ACAS +13.4% (still checking), CSUN +6.3% (signs 35MW sales framework agreement and 5MW sales contract to supply the Korean Market), TIVO +4.6% (Blockbuster and TiVo confirm agreement to make BLOCKBUSTER OnDemand available through the TiVo service and to promote TiVo DVRs throughout retail stores nationwide), GE +2.3% (gets $300 mln contract for China gas pipeline - AP)... Analyst comments: TIBX +5.0% (ticking higher in early trade; hearing upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm), TCK +4.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), TTES +2.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James), WDC +2.5% (seeing premarket strength; hearing upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm), LLTC +1.0% (upgraded to Overweight at Weisel).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DRYS -12.0%, AMB -11.2% (to offer 33 mln shares of common stock; reaffirms FY09 funds from operations guidance below consensus), SOLF -10.5%, JBL -8.9%, RBN -6.0%, ADP -2.6%, NR -2.2% (light volume)... Select drybulk shipping names trading lower following DRYS results: EXM -8.3%, GNK -7.1%, DSX -4.1%, NM -3.9%, TBSI -3.6%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: AAUK -5.6% (downgraded to Sell at RBS), MT -3.3%, GOLD -2.8%, AU -2.4%, BBL -2.0%, HMY -1.7%, RTP -1.5% (Chinalco sees competition ruling key step in Rio deal - WSJ; also downgraded to Sell at RBS), GFI -1.5%, BHP -1.1%... Select European financials showing weakness: IRE -11.2%, AIB -11.0%, HBC -3.8%... Other news: ALV -9.0% (announces a $350 mln common share offering; also provides financial update on its GM and Chrysler exposure, liquidity position, rationalization efforts and capital expenditures trend), TGP -4.8% (announces public offering of 4 mln common units), DNDN -4.0% (still checking), LVS -3.0% (discloses that Bradley Stone is resigning from his positions as the Executive Vice President and President of Global Operations and Construction), CPT -1.1% (Fitch downgrades Camden Property Trust's IDR to 'BBB'; revises Outlook to Negative)... Analyst comments: NUAN -4.1% (ticking lower in early trade; hearing downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), CRM -3.7% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), PH -3.4% (cut to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs- DJ), WSM -2.8% (downgraded to Underweight at Barclays), UBS -2.6% (downgraded to Underperform at Keefe Bruyette), RIMM -2.6% (initiated with Underweight at JPMorgan), AXP -2.1% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), SMTC -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman- Reuters). -
February New Home Sales 337K vs 300K consensus, +4.7% m/m
Turgudele need numbrid meeldivad. -
Alpha on järjestanud 2008. aasta enim teeninud hedge-fondide juhid. Ajad olid keerulised, kuid mitte kõigi jaoks. Võib-olla tasuks esmajoones kuulata just nende meeste nägemusi turu suhtes. Money talks. Samas on selge oht, et nii mõnigi neist jääb trendi muutudes behind the curve ja kaotab näiteks poole fondi väärtusest.
Soovitan soojalt lugeda ka meeste kohta käivaid iseloomustusi. Saate teada, kelle vastu kauplete:
"Simons, an award-winning mathematician, won’t discuss his strategy, except to say that it is based on rapid-fire trading across almost every possible market and that it relies on computer-driven programs designed by an army of more than 100 Ph.D.s. Publicly disclosed information is limited largely to quarterly reports of equity holdings, which amounted to $27.6 billion at year-end 2008, down from $57.4 billion 12 months earlier."
Eestis pole vist kõikide elualade peale kokkugi nii palju doktorikraadiga inimesi... :)
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Heh...on ikka. Minu andmetel lisandub ca 100 doktorikraadiga inimest Tartu Ülikoolist igal aastal. Eestis kokku ca 120-150 tükki aastas. Aga väga hea lõik.
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Mul on küsimus,kui suur summa paneb börsi kõikuma(st enda enda raha hakkab juba mõjutama börsi suunda).St kui Warret buffet tahab nt teha 50 mlrd dollariga väikse "daytrade"
Ja kui ta saab,mis instrumnete ta peaks siis kasutama?Ostma SPY,QQQQ mitmes tükis korraga?
Nt räägitakse,et trader Jerome Kerviel,kes 7 miljardit futuuridega ära põletas lõi turule väikse "jõnksu" sisse -
privador,
kui suurt kõikumist on vaja? 0.5%? 1%? 2%? -
Nu nt Buffet tahab daytardelt 2% teenida.
Küsimus siis sõnastatud nii,kas ta saab ta saab nii sisse minna ja väljuda päevasiseselt,et tal nn "probleeme " ei teki -
Eks see kõik sõltu loomulikult päevast, millal tehinguid tehakse, aga võtame näiteks 'normaalse' aktiivsusega päeva ehk tänase. Vahemikus 10.00.00 kuni 10.02.00 ET osteti S&P500 indeksit järgiva börsilkaubeldava fondi SPY 9.5 miljonit väärtpaberit (2.7% kogu päevasest keskimisest kauplemismahust) keskmise hinnaga $82 ehk kokku ca $780 mln. Kokku liigutati turgu selle ostuga 2 minuti jooksul ülespoole ca +0.6%.
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Samas..ostes at the money optsioone, peaks samasuguse triki läbiviimiseks piisama 95 000 call lepingust strike 82 pealt, mille hind oli tol hetkel ca $3.15 lepingust ehk siis ca $30 miljonit...
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Ja üks asi veel - kuna SPY päevane keskmine kauplemismaht jääb ca $30miljardi juurde, siis daytrade'iks peaks Buffett ikka väiksema summa valima kui $50 mld : )
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mnjaa kui juba "tyhised" 780 mill mõjutab 0,6%,siis eeldaks et max kogus mida sa veel valutlt liigutada saad on ehk mingi 200milli
