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Börsipäev 17. aprill

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Täna enne turgu tulevad tulemused Citigroupil ja General Electricul. Citi EPSi ootus -$0.34 ja müügitulu $21.94 miljardit ning GE'l vastavalt $0.21 ning $39 miljardit. Pärast turu sulgemist tulevad veel Allegiant Traveli (ALGT) tulemused - reisiettevõte, mille aktsiad on majanduslangusest hoolimata kauplemas tippude lähistel. Seni on ärimudel inimeste väikelinnadest Las Vegasesse, Nevadasse, Orlandosse, Floridasse jm hästi toimunud. ALGT'lt oodatakse EPSi $1.26 ning müügitulu $139.42 miljonit.
  • ALGT toodi välja Briefingus, paar nädalat tagasi. Sellel aktsial on üks suuremaid shortijate %.
    Väike väljavõte sellest loost:
    As such, shorts have treated the rally as an opportunity to double down on what they view as negative stories and on stocks that have risen too far, too fast over the past month. For example, ALGT's short interest jumped to 55% from 37%; CMG to 49% from 33%; SYNA to 48% from 37%
  • Reageeringud eileõhtustele Google’i (GOOG) tulemustele:

    Citigroup jätab 2009. aasta müügitulu prognoosi paika, tõstab 2009. aasta EPSi prognoosi. Kinnitab hinnasihti $450 (20x 2010. aasta GAAP EPS).

    Morgan Stanley kiidab ettevõtte kulude kontrolli ja oodatust suuremaid rahvusvahelisi tulusid. Overweight.

    Deutsche Bank tõstab hinnasihi $390 pealt $425 (20x 2009. aasta EPS, 17x 2010. aasta EPS) peale, kinnitab ostusoovitust. Kiidetakse madalamaid tegevuskulusid. 2009. aasta müügitulu prognoos tõmmatakes $18.1 miljardi pealt alla $17.1 miljardi peale, pro-forma Eps $21.80 pealt $21.50 peale. 2010. aasta prognoositavaid tulusid langetatakse $21.2 miljardi pealt $19.5 miljardi peale ning EPSi $25.94 pealt $25.06 peale.

  • Päris huvitav lugu Icahni, Kerkoriani ja MGM teemal. Piltlikult öeldes üritab Icahn Kerkoriani teatud õrnast kohast üha tugevamalt pitsitama hakata oma pankrotimenetluse algatamise nõudega.

    The Wall Street Journal reports activist investor Carl Icahn is pushing MGM Mirage (MGM) to restructure in bankruptcy court, according to people familiar with the matter. The gambit pits him against Kirk Kerkorian, MGM Mirage's largest owner. Mr. Icahn and private-equity fund Oaktree Capital Management separately have acquired hundreds of millions of dollars in MGM Mirage debt in recent months. They told MGM Mirage, which must make a new equity payment by Friday on a big Las Vegas project, that they would support a restructuring in bankruptcy court, these people said. Mr. Kerkorian holds a stake of about 53% in MGM Mirage that is valued at about $900 mln, down from $14.9 ln in late 2007. His investment could be wiped out in any bankruptcy filing that gives secured debtholders priority over stockholders in doling out assets. A spokesman for Tracinda, Mr. Kerkorian's investment co, declined to comment. Mr. Icahn's strategy is not entirely clear, though he could be after some of MGM Mirage's prized assets, said the people familiar with his call for a Chapter 11 filing. Mr. Icahn had owned a little less than $500 mln in the face value of MGM bonds that mature in several years, say two people involved in the matter, but that may have changed. He didn't return a call seeking comment. An MGM Mirage spokesman said the co "and its advisers remain engaged in constructive discussions with its lenders."
  • Mõned näited siia aprillikuu jooksul toimunud ülevõtmistest ja ühinemistest - enamus küll mahult tillukesed, kuid on ka suuremaid ning aktiivsust omajagu:

    Harris to acquire Tyco Electronics Wireless. Under the definitive agreement, Harris will purchase the Wireless Systems assets of Tyco Electronics for $675 mln in cash, subject to post-closing adjustments.

    eBay to make cash tender offer of $24/share for all outstanding Gmarket shares for $1.2 billion.Zurich Financial Services Group confirms that its subsidiary Farmers Group has entered into an agreement under which it will acquire 100% of AIG's US Personal Auto Group.

    Centex and Pulte to merge

    ITT Industries to acquire Laing GmbH

    Unify Corp to acquire AXS-OneThrough the agreement, Unify will purchase all outstanding shares and debt of AXS-One in an all-stock transaction valued at approx $8.0 mln

    Holly announces definitive agreement to acquire Sunoco's Tulsa refineryHRMM will pay Sunoco $65 mln at closing for the refinery.

    Macrovision agrees to acquire assets of MuzeIn connection with the acquisition, Macrovision will pay $16.5 million in cash consideration.

    In Focus to be acquired for $0.95 per share or ~$39 mln

    Diana Shipping announces agreement to acquire owner of a Capesize Newbuilding Vessel

    Express Scripts announces definitive agreement to acquire WellPoint NextRx subsidiaries for $4.675 bln

    SumTotal acknowledges that it has received a proposal from Vista Equity Partners to acquire the Company for $3.25 per share in cash

    France Telecom to acquire Orascom's stake in Mobinil

    Sanofi-Aventis buys Medley for BRL1.5 bln

  • Citigroup prelim ($0.18) ex-items vs ($0.34) First Call consensus; revs $24.79 bln vs $21.94 bln First Call consensus
  • General Electric prelim $0.26 vs $0.21 First Call consensus; revs $38.4 bln vs $39.83 bln First Call consensus
  • aktsionäride jaoks kujunes Citi tulemus negatiivseks ühekordsete kulude tõttu jaanuaris: The loss "reflected the reset in January 2009 of the conversion price of the $12.5 billion convertible preferred-stock issued in a private offering in January 2008," Citi reported. The reset cut profit available to common-share holders by 24 cents a share.
  • Esimese reaktsioonina tuli Citi eelturul +7% pealt +1.5% peale ja pärast veidi pikemat seedimist kaupleb nüüd 20% kõrgemal. GE oli aga flat tulemuste saabudes ning nüüd +6%
  • oi kurja nendele kes Citit haarasid 1 pealt, varsti väljumise aeg?
  • järgmine katalüsaator ühes või teises suunas liikumiseks on stress-testi tulemuste avalikustamine, mis peaks olema lähinädalate küsimus
  • USA futuurid alustavad optsioonireedest kauplemispäeva eilsete sulgumistasemete juurest. Nafta ca +2% @ $51 barrelist. 

    Saksamaa DAX +1.01% 

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.29%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.06%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.44%

    Venemaa MICEX +1.81%

    Poola WIG -1.83%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.74%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.12%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.19%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -2.24%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -2.76%

    Tai Set 50 +1.02%

    India Sensex 30 +0.69%

  • Ride the Waves
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/17/2009 8:42 AM EDT

    Life is so constructed that an event does not, cannot, will not, match the expectation.
    -- Charlotte Bronte

    As earnings seasons continues, banks and financial stocks are the stars. This morning Citigroup (C) , GE (GE) and BB&T (BBT) all have what looks like solid reports on first inspection. We have already seen good reports from Wells Fargo (WFC) , Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan (JPM) , and those have certainly helped confidence. I'm not sure how clear the balance sheets of these companies really are, but the market is feeling pretty good about what it sees.

    Many of the banks did a very good job of taking big write-offs and lowering expectations. They are now seeing the rewards of their financial statement engineering. Whether they really do reflect reality is another matter, but for now the market is pleased.

    Google (GOOG) earnings are also being digested this morning, and we are seeing a pretty typical situation where folks jumped in and drove the stock sharply higher on the initial report but then started selling as the conference call lowered expectations. After trading up over $410 last night, the stock is around $383 this morning, down $5 from the closing price.

    Yesterday afternoon we had a pretty good bout of frothiness. Investors, many who are underinvested and feeling left out, wanted to get in front of the earnings reports, and we spiked sharply in the afternoon and ran over any shorts who were trying to catch a top.

    In addition to the celebration in the financial sector, we have been seeing a much higher level of speculation in smaller stocks. Bulk shippers, solar energy, small-cap China and a variety of small-caps have been making some big moves as hot money players have been beating the bushes looking for opportunities.

    The big question now is how much further this market can go. We have been driven by underinvested bulls who are struggling to put cash to work in a market that won't pull back much. The dips have all been shallow lately, and we keep seeing sudden upside spikes driven by news. The last hour of trading has consistently been extremely volatile with a bullish bias lately, and trying to put on shorts into that has been suicidal.

    There is no question we are seeing some frothiness in the market right now, but markets with momentum tend to stay sticky to the upside. They don't roll over very easily or very fast. If you are concerned that we are becoming extended and the advance is becoming old, then tighten up stops and look to take gains into strength if you have them.

    The most important thing is not to start thinking that it's time to simply buy and hold stocks again. While we have had a good rally, there is no reason to expect that it is going to be a smooth ride going forward. Stay flexible and open-minded.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BBT +13.0%, C +10.7%, TEL +6.9%, GME +3.2%, GE +2.4%, TPX +2.2%, MCD +1.0% (CEO says on CNBC that sales are solid for start of 2009, still gaining share in nearly all markets)... Select financial related names showing strength: C +13.7%, LYG +13.6%, ETFC +7.5%, HBAN +6.9%, RF +6.3%, RBS +5.6%, BCS +5.6%, PRU +4.0%, BAC +2.5%, UBS +2.3%, STT +2.1%, WFC +1.1%, MS +1.0%... Select drybulk shipping names trading higher: DRYS +7.4% (announces completion of the "ATM" equity offering; also upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), GNK +5.9%, NM +5.9%, EXM +3.9%, EGLE +1.1%, ... Other news: GM +5.2% (GM seeks provision for its suppliers - Financial Times), CCO +2.3% (GAMCO Investors discloses 5.54% stake in 13D filing)... Analyst comments: ILMN +8.2% (Leerink Swann reviews Genome Analyzers order; raises valuation range), CHS +4.0% (added to Top Picks list at FBR Capital), VE +3.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at BNP Paribas), LOW +2.8% (seeing early strength; hearing added to Buy list at tier 1 firm).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CYT -17.8% (also downgraded to Underweight at Keybanc and downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), ELY -12.9%, WRI -4.3%, ISRG -4.2% (held earnings conf call after close; says suspending previous revenue guidance on systems and accessories), VASC -2.9%, PBCT -2.6%, AMLN -2.2%, BIIB -1.4%, GOOG -0.9%... Select European financials trading lower: IRE -18.1%, AIB -11.4%, CS -4.7%, PUK -2.3%, AZ -2.1%, ING -1.6%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: ACH -4.6%, RTP -4.0%, AAUK -3.2%, GOLD -2.8%, BHP -2.2%, SLW -1.9%, SLV -1.8%, ... Select large cap drug names ticking lower in early trade: AZN -2.3%, SNY -2.0%, NVS -1.7%... Select casino names showing weakness: MGM -15.3% (WSJ provides additional detail on earlier headline regarding Carl Icahn, Oaktree Cap pushing for MGM Mirage bankruptcy), BYD -2.6%, LVS -2.0%, WYNN -1.4% (discloses David R. Sisk, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, agreed to terminate his employment)... Other news: CHK -3.0% (lowers natural gas production), M -1.8% (ratings lowered at S&P), LNC -1.5% (Fitch downgrades Lincoln National Corp's IDR to 'BBB+'; Outlook Negative)... Analyst comments: SOHU -2.9% (downgraded to Sell at Deutsche; tgt lowered to $39), QSII -2.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T Capital Mkts), JNPR -1.5% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus based on valuation), CAT -1.2% (estimates cut below consensus at Credit Suisse), FDX -1.1% (downgraded to Hold at Jesup&Lamont).
  • April University of Michigan Confidence-prelim 61.9 vs 58.5, prior 57.3
  • Fed's Bernanke says damage from credit bust likely to be long-lasting
  • California jobless rate up to 11.2% in March, up from 10.5% in Feb
  • Ja turul jätkub veel jõudu tõusta päeva uutele tippudele... Buying capitulation & underperformance fears võiks olla need märksõnad, mis sellist käitumist iseloomustavad.
  • Andke andeks loll küsimus, aga mis IMAX -ga juhtunud on? Mõni uudis?
  • Imaxiga seotud uudised on viimasel ajal olnud kõik positiivse maiguga ning see on ka aktsiale tuult tiibadesse andnud. Neljapäeval rääkis Imaxi CEO, et nemad majanduslanguse 'valusid' ei tunne ning et uudse lahenduse eest on ameeriklased tõepoolest valmis rohkem maksma. 

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