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Börsipäev 22. aprill

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Geithner räägib USA pankade seisukorrast rahuloluga - link siin. Mees ütleb, et stress-test näitab, et enamusel pankadest on juba piisavalt kapitali.
  • Eile hilisõhtul tuli tulemustega Tupperware (TUP). EPSi näidati $0.45 vs oodatud $0.34 ning müügitulu $462.8 miljonit vs oodatud $459.5 miljonit. Kuigi tulud on aastataguse kvartaliga langenud ca 15%, siis peamiseks põhjuseks siin dollari tugevnemine teiste valuutade vastu. Ootused suudeti täita ning ka tulevikku vaadatakse optimistlikult. 2. kvartalilt oodatakse EPSi $0.57 kuni $0.62 vs tänane konsensusootus $0.50 ning 2009. aastalt tervikuna EPSi $2.16 kuni $2.26 vs konensus $1.96. 2009. aastalt tervikuna oodatakse dollaripõhiste tulude langust 8% kuni 11%, kuid kohalikes valuutads mõõdetuna 2% kuni 5%list tõusu. Seega koduperenaistele tootval ettevõttel läheb ka tänases keskkonnas hästi.

  • Tänased tähtsamad tulemuste teatajad enne turgu on Morgan Stanley (MS), Boeing (BA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) ja Altria (MO). Pärast turu sulgemist tuleb Apple (AAPL).
  • Fannie Mae ja Freddy Mac'i kontollorgan FHFA on teinud nimekirja viiest peamisest põhjusest, miks koduostjad ei suuda oma laene tasuda:

    1) Sissetuleku vähenemine 34.1%
    2) Liiga palju kohustusi 19.8%
    3) Töötuks jäämine 8.1%
    4) Haigus 6.5%
    5) Lahutus 3.5%
  • Morgan Stanley eilne kommentaar Baltikumi riikide võimaluste kohta liituda euroga tänase kursi alusel:

    We previously thought the small size of funding gaps,contagion risks, external support, and closed FX  markets, made it likely all three Baltic states would endure the pain needed to enter the Euro at current exchange rates. Without a strong and early recovery in external demand we now think only Estonia has a reasonable chance of doing so.

    /-/

    EMU in 2011 conceivable only for Estonia: Only Estonia can feasibly meet the Maastricht criteria for January 2011 EMU entry, though the fiscal limit will be difficult. For Latvia EMU now looks a distant prospect, while for Lithuania 2012 is the earliest possible entry date but looks increasingly challenging.

  • ses mõttes on EURO kasutuselevõtt tõepoolest "race against time" hetkel Baltikumi jaoks... et kui välismõjurid lähevad 2a perspektiivis veel rohkem pekki, siis Leedu-Läti pole näidanud hetkel võimet hoida eelarvedefitsiit all 3% SKP-st, Eesti kõigub piiri peal... ja kui tulevik ümberringi peaks veel tumedamaks minema, siis ei aita enam valu kannatamisest, toimub paratamatu amputeerimine...

    ..aga täpselt sama tõenäoline (kui mitte rohkem) on hetkel see, et rahapresside pretsedenditu töö üle maakera osutub suuremaks kui võla-auk, mida sellega täidetakse ja 2a perspektiivis oleme vähem pekkis kui praegu. Sel juhul ma devalveerimise-riske Balti valuutadel eriti suureks ei pea.
  • Joel, kust seda MS kommentaari lugeda saab
  • Schlagbaumm, avalikult ei saagi. Kui suur su huvi on?
  • Fererer (tennisist) ütles selle kohta et keskmine aga et ta pole dushiruumis väga ringi vaadanud.
  • Dendreon (DNDN) on täna eelturul 4% plussis. Põhjuseks Merrimani upgrade ja hinnasihi kergitamine vahemikku $33-$34.

    Merriman upgraded DNDN to Buy from Neutral with a new target valuation range of $33-34 from $18-19.based on anticipated catalysts which they expect to further drive the stock as Provenge could represent the first cancer immunotherapy approved in the U.S. The firm says while the company has already indicated that the study met its statistical endpoint under the SPA, they believe the stock will react positively on the full dataset and expect upside potential in the stock of another 20-30% on the actual numbers. There is risk that the numbers may appear more "grey" than expected leading to some pressure on the stock, but they only assign a 10% chance of this happening at this point. The firm says at the minimum,they believe that Dendreon could partner Provenge in 2009 ex-U.S. Theye believe three likely partnering candidates are Takeda, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and sanofi-aventis (SNY). They anticipate initial approval for Provenge in 2010 (U.S.) for androgen-independent prostate cancer (approx a $1.5 bln market) and approval in 2014 (U.S.) for androgen-dependent prostate cancer, which could greatly expand the market potential for Provenge.
  • Tuleb maksta? Nii suur huvi mul ka ei ole. Aga kui registreerumisest piisab, siis nii suur huvi on küll.
  • ehh DNDN positsioon sai 18- pealt lukku pandud.
    Liigne agarus on ogarus!
  • Boeing prelim $0.86 vs $0.91 First Call consensus; revs $16.5 bln vs $16.70 bln First Call consensus

    2009. aasta käibeprognoos jäeti samaks $68-69 mld, ent aktsiakasumit alandati 4.70-5.00 dollarini (varasem 5.05-5.35). Mõlemad näitajad jäävad kõrgemaks konsensuse ootustest. Aktsia on eelturul 2.3% plussis
  • USA autotööstus ei näi Goldmanit enam nõnda muretsema panevat ning varasem ettevaatlik lähenemine on nüüd asendatud neutraalsega. Lemmiklaps Ford sai ostusoovituse, mistõttu aktsia eelturul 10% eilsest sulgumisest kõrgemal kaupleb
  • MS selgelt alla ootuste.
    Morgan Stanley prelim ($0.57) vs ($0.08) First Call consensus; revs $3 bln vs $5.01 bln First Call consensus

    Wells Fargo prelim $0.56 vs $0.55 preannouncement; revs $21 bln vs preannounced revs of $20 bln
  • Eks MSi neis tulemustes peitub ka põhjus miks oli ettevõtte kommentaar GSi soovi peale riigi raha tagasi maksta, et nemad seda teha ei soovi.
  • Tänahommikused tulemused USA aktsiaturult on nüüdseks meie tulemuste tabelisse kantud. Link siin. 

  • magus suutäis konspiratsiooniteoreetikutele

    WASHINGTON, April 22 (Reuters) - David Kellermann, acting chief financial officer of mortgage giant Freddie Mac, was found dead on Wednesday in his suburban Virginia home, a Fairfax County police spokeswoman said.
    Police were called at 4:48 a.m. EDT (8:48 GMT) to Reston, Virginia, spokeswoman Lucy Caldwell told Reuters.
    Local media reported that Kellermann's wife called in an apparent suicide, but Caldwell did not elaborate on the cause of death.
    The incident is "under investigation," she said.

  • Henno, kumb siis on - nibiru või reptiloidid?
  • USA turud on tänast päeva alustamas nukrameelselt. S&P500 -1.3% @ 837 punkti, nafta -0.8% @ $48.1 barrelist.

    Saksamaa DAX -0.42% 

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.66%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.34%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.03%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.89%

    Poola WIG +1.33%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.18%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.67%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.94%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -2.64%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.56%

    Tai Set 50 -1.50%

    India Sensex 30 -0.74%

  • Keep a Clear Head
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/22/2009 8:44 AM EDT

    Sometimes only a change of viewpoint is needed to convert a tiresome duty into an interesting opportunity.
    -- Alberta Flanders

    One of the most important ingredients of stock market success is maintaining a fresh and energetic mental attitude while staying consistent, objective and unemotional. Successful investing isn't just about applying a book of rules. While you need structure and money management discipline, you also need to harness your mental energy and use it wisely.

    If is very easy to become overly confident or unduly depressed as you deal with the market day after day. Some days it will feel like you are totally in sync with the action and on other days it will feel like no matter what you do it is going to turn into a mistake.

    It is simply the nature of the beast that we will suffer ups and downs, and the bear market makes it even tougher than it normally is. What has really weighed on so many investors recently is that they have been very defensive as the market has improved. That isn't necessary a mistake. Your style and discipline will determine how you handle the market, but it can be very mentally depleting to be doing what you consider correct while the market provides opportunity elsewhere and fails to reward you.

    In a bear market, being correctly defensive is certainly better than losing money, but it doesn't provide the same rewards -- mental or financial -- that being correct provides in a bull market. Even though the market has been undergoing a pretty good rally for a while, many market players are struggling to maintain a positive mental attitude.

    The great irony of trading at times is that the general public tends to believe that it's great when prices go straight up, and it's bad when they go down. While that may be true for buy-and-hold investors, it is much more complex for traders. Strong markets like the one we've had for a while now need a rest in order to create opportunities, but then when we have a sudden breakdown and a bounce like we have had over the past two days, it can use up a tremendous amount of emotional energy trying to stay a step ahead.

    Every day we have to come into this market with a clear head and a sense of excitement about the opportunities that lie ahead. We might not go straight up or straight down like many folks are rooting for, but we have to be confident that if we keep on plugging away that we will have some excellent chances to make some money.

    In the early going today, the banks are seeing some pressure on Morgan Stanley (MS) and Wells Fargo (WFC) earnings reports. Morgan Stanley in particular is weaker than expected. Expectations were high, and we had a "sell the news" setup form after some euphoric action late yesterday. The banks have been determining market direction lately, but as I noted yesterday they have had a big run already and conditions are ripe for some profit-taking.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RCRC +17.2%, TUP +11.7% (light volume), PFCB +11.4%, SNDK +8.0%, CHRW +7.4%, AAI +7.3%, IR +6.2%, GILD +5.2% (also upgraded to Buy at Morgan Joseph), TROW +4.7%, MANH +4.4%, T +3.7%, GILD +3.4%, HCBK +3.4%, BA +2.9%, ELN +2.7%, STX +1.9%, YHOO +1.2%...Other news: GERN +11.1% (announces presentations focused on the activity of Geron's GRN163L), KNDL +8.9% (rebounding from yesterday's 10+point drop), MEDX +6.8% (announces preclinical data from multiple research programs demonstrating anti-tumor activity in cancer), MGM +2.8% (A casino co is working on a bid for MGM - NY Post), LVS +2.4% (discloses amendment to $5 bln senior secured credit facility)... Analyst comments: DNDN +3.7% (upgraded to Buy at Merriman), EAT +3.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman- Reuters), LCC +3.1% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill), CYMI +2.7% (upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill), BRCD +2.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman- Reuters), CELG +1.7% (upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein), PEP +1.3% (initiated with Buy at Janney).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PPDI -18.1%, TEX -9.1%, MS -8.7%, COF -8.4%, CENX -8.3%, NSC -8.2%, ILMN -8.1%, JAH -7.8% (announces 12 mln share common stock offering), PXP -7.2% (announces a 10 mln share common stock offering), AMD -6.3%, WFC -4.5%, GSK -3.8%, ALTR -3.7%, VNO -1.9% (announces commencement of 12.5 mln common share offering)... Select financial related names showing weakness with disappointing MS and WFC results: PUK -9.0%, RF -8.8%, FITB -8.3% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets), KEY -7.8% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup and downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets), MS -7.6%, HBAN -7.5%, LNC -7.3%, BK -6.0%, C -4.9%, BAC -4.9%, CS -3.8%, PRU -3.6% (downgraded to Underweight at Barclays), DB -3.6%, GS -2.0%... Other news: PDLI -17.7% (seeing early weakness following report that Avastin did not meet primary endpoint), BHP -5.2% (says March quarter iron ore output down 1% on year - DJ), CBY -4.8% (still checking), SNY -2.1% and AZN -1.3% (seeing early weakness, possibly some sympathy with disappointing GSK results), PSEC -1.1% (announces commencement of 3 mln share public offering)... Analyst comments: AKS -5.7% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), AFL -5.4% (downgraded to Underweight at Barclays), IPI -5.2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman- Reuters), DT -4.3% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan and downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), MAR -4.1% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), HAL -3.8% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Barclays), TCK -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse).
  • Erko hommikusele kommentaarile seoses Fordiga (F) lisaks veel, et GSi hinnasiht on nüüd kaks korda kõrgem kui Credit Suisse'i oma ehk sihid siis vastavalt $6 ja $3 aktsia eest.
  • February House Price Index m/m +0.7% vs -0.7% consensus, prior revised to +1.0 % from +1.7%
  • Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 3857K (consensus is a build of 2500K); gasoline inventories had a build of 802K (consensus is a draw of 700K); distillate inventories had a build of 2682K (consensus is a draw of 1000K)...
  • General Motors (GM) CFO says co won't make June 1 $1 bln debt payment - WSJ
    VIX ja VXN on uudise peale kergelt plussi kosunud.
  • There is some nervousness ahead of the highly anticipated stress tests, which have been top of mind this week as the Treasury is set release the first bit of detail on the tests this Friday, April 24. This Friday's release will detail the methods used in the stress tests, and precedes the full release of stress test results on May 4, which are expected to give more crucial details as to the test results. The institutions involved in the tests are JPM, C, BAC, WFC, GS, MS, MET, PNC, USB, BK, STI, STT, COF, BBT, RF, AXP, FITB, KEY and GMAC.
  • Suhteliselt huvitav, kuidas tööstus- ja finantsettevõtete juhid räägivad, et hullem on möödas. Ja seekord ei räägita seda lootuses investoreid rahustada, vaid ise öeldut uskudes. Mis on tegelikult täitsa hea, sest sellised signaalid kipuvad olema isetäituvad. Tarbija saab üle pika aja positiivse signaali ning lisades siia veel kinnisvarastatistika, võivad lähikuud majanduses äkki positiivselt üllatada. Muidugi turgude võimalik langus võib jällegi pessimismi sisestada.
  • Apple'i (AAPL) tulemusteni veel loetud minutid. Mitmed analüüsimajad on andnud tulemuste eel arvukalt upgrade'e, seega ootused kahtlemata kõrged.

    AAPL is expected to report 2Q09 earnings after the close today, usually around 4:30 ET, with the conference call to follow at 5 ET. Consensus estimates call for EPS of $1.09 on revenues of $7.95 bln and gross margins of 33.1%, above company guidance of $0.90-1.00/$7.6-8 bln...
  • Turu lõpp anti ikka korralikult käest, languse üks vedajatest taas finants.
  • RHI reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.06 per share, in-line with the First Call consensus of $0.06; revenues fell 32.8% year/year to $823.3 mln vs the $844.3 mln consensus. "Robert Half International remains in solid financial condition with virtually no debt, and we are confident in our ability to weather this cycle... We also believe the company is in a good position to grow market share as some of our competitors contract their operations."

    Homme pikemalt.
  • EBAY
    eBay prelim $0.39 vs $0.34 First Call consensus; revs $2.02 bln vs $1.94 bln First Call consensus
    eBay sees Q2 $0.34-0.36 vs $0.35 First Call consensus; sees revs $1.85-2.05 bln vs $1.98 bln First Call consensus
  • EBAY aktsia reageeris pea +10% tõusuga ja kaupleb järelturul pealpool $15.60 taset.
  • Joel, mis loogika alusel tabelit koostad?
  • Apple prelim $1.33 vs $1.09 First Call consensus; revs $8.16 bln vs $7.96 bln First Call consensus
  • momentum, kui aus olla, siis kasutan suuresti subjektiivset lähenemist - eelkõige suured ja turuosaliste jaoks tuntumad ettevõtted, mis turule suuremat mõju avaldavad ning siis väiksemad spetsiifilisemad ettevõtted, mis on varem LHV lugejatele huvi pakkunud või meie poolt kajastatud analüüsides/lugudes/artiklites läbi jooksnud+mõned endale personaalselt huvi pakkuvad ettevõtted.
  • Kas sellest piisab, et homme tõusupäev tuleks !?
  • 5 key quotes from Apple’s earnings call

    Acting CEO Tim Cook handled the bulk of the questions from analysts in Apple’s (AAPL) second-quarter earnings call Wednesday, and he seized the opportunity — in Steve Jobs’ absence — to wave the company’s flag.

    Five key quotes:

    On Apple’s shrinking market share: “Yes we do care about market share, but cycles come and cycles go, and what we care about is making the best computers in the world, not making the most. We believe that if we do that over the long term, that we will gain share.”

    On netbooks: “For us it’s about doing great products. When I look at what is being sold I see cramped keyboards, terrible software, junky hardware, small screens. Just not something we would put the Mac brand on. So it is not a space as it exists today that we are interested in.”

    On leaving AT&T for Verizon: “We view AT&T as a very good partner. We have no plan to change it. Verizon is on CDMA, and we wanted one phone for the whole world.”

    On China: “We now have three of the four BRIC [Brazil, Russia, India and China] countries. We would like to be in China within the next year, but have nothing to announce today.”

    On the Palm pre and Apple’s intellectual property: “We think competition is great as long as companies invent their own stuff.”

    http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2009/04/22/5-key-quotes-from-apples-earnings-call/
  • Ma muidu vaatasin, et eelmine kord vähemalt nädal aega pärast tabelite lõppu tuli veel ohtralt tulemusi. Kas kusagil on mingit lahendust mis aitaks visuaalselt hinnata tulemuste hooaega, et kuidagi näitaks ära millal tuleb rohkem ja kust maalt pmst hakkab läbi saama?
  • USA börsiettevõtetel, kel kalendriaasta ühtib majandusaastaga, on Q1, Q2 ja Q3 raporteerimiseks aega 1.5 kuud ning Q4 koos aastaaruandega 2.5 kuud. Kuna Q4 puhul on aega rohkem, siis seal kipuvad tulemused pisut rohkem ära hajuma, Q1, Q2 ja Q3 puhul suudavad kolme nädalat hõlmavad tabelid aga väga suure enamuse tähtsamatest tulemustest ära katta.

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