Börsipäev 5. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Bloombergi artikli kohaselt vajab stress-testi tulemuste järgi juba 10 panka lisakapitali. Neljapäev saab igatahes põnev olema, erinevaid kuulujutte on seinast-seina.
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JPMorgan looks to buy at home and overseas.
Mr Dimon dId not discuss the forthcoming results of the US government’s “stress tests” of banks’ financial health but said the banking system “can handle an awful lot of loss and be OK”. -
Seda "awful lot of lossi" tsiteeriti eile igal pool. Suhteliselt naljakas jutt - peale Lehmani pankrotti oli näha, milline paanika valitses. Lisaks on paljud suurpangad oma kaotustega toime tulnud pigem riigi abiga.
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Pole siin naljakat eriti midagi. pangad kapitaliseerivad ennast praegu üsna laia spreadiga, selleks on lihtsalt neile pisut aega vaja anda.
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Arusaadav, et kapitaliseerivad, aga "awful lot of lossi" jutt on lihtsalt totter. Kui ühel suurpankadest peaks midagi juhtuma, leviks see hoobilt süsteemi sees ja riik peaks igal juhul sekkuma. Ma ei saa üldse aru, kuidas sellist juttu saab ajada, kui ise riigi lõa otsas istutakse.
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Kunagi küsiti ühelt poliitikult pärast tema sõnavõttu riigikogus, miks ta sedavõrd lolli juttu suust välja ajas. Mees vastanud ohates: "partei käsib". Miks see konkreetne avaldus sulle totter tundub, kui see sisuliselt õige on?
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Pigem on küsimus selles, et kuidas defineerida "awful". Minu arust peaks ajaloo ühe raskeima aasta üle elanud pangajuhid selliste sõnavõttudega ettevaatlikud olema. Eriti senikaua, kuni nad maksumaksja rinna otsas istuvad. Ehk teisisõnu, ma ei leia, et see avaldus sisuliselt õige on. Seis on küll parem, kui varem (tulemused ka näitasid - iseasi, kui palju loomingulisest raamatupidamisest tuli), kuid see ei anna nüüd küll põhjust praalimiseks.
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Selliste avaldustega püütakse lihtsalt turgu rahustada/ "business as usual" tunnet tekitada ja seda on üsna keeruline praalimisena võtta.
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Tulemuste tabel jätkab uuenemist - link siin.
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Saksamaa DAX -0.52%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.18%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +2.34%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.84%
Venemaa MICEX -0.13%
Poola WIG -1.03%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud)
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.30%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.29%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.01%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq N/A (bör suletud)
Tai Set 50 N/A (börs suletud)
India Sensex 30 -0.03%
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Follow the Herd, But Don't Get Trampled
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/5/2009 8:29 AM EDT
Every crowd has a silver lining.
-- P.T. Barnum
The stock market is primarily a study in crowd psychology, and crowds are very emotional and not very logical. The biggest mistake investors make is thinking that a crowd of investors is going to think and act like a single individual. After all, it is possible to study and gain some insight into the behavior of an individual.
If investing were about predicting the behavior of one person, it would be much easier. We could figure out what makes this person fearful or greedy or excited or worried and react appropriately. The task is much more complicated with a crowd because the emotions of people within the crowd affect the emotions of others in the group. What will make them fearful or greedy one day won't bother them the next because the crowd dynamic will overwhelm their individual responses.
When you look at the current market, it is truly stunning how the emotions have shifted from complete despair and total pessimism back in early March to euphoria and high levels of optimism just seven weeks later. The emotions of the market today couldn't be any different than they were just a short while ago.
Our job at this point is to try to figure out whether the emotions of the crowd of investors will continue to stay so positive. Remember, though, that crowds don't tend to shift their thinking very quickly or easily. Once they are running in one direction, they don't stop and reverse course suddenly. That is why trying to pick market bottoms and tops is so difficult. It is very easy to say that the emotions of a crowd are extreme; it is much more difficult to try to time when an actual shift may occur. Market timers are usually too early and are run over before they eventually have better luck with the timing.
In this market right now, the crowd psychology is dominating. The buyers want in and are willing to chase a wide assortment of stocks higher. It is a bit of a frenzy, but frenzies can last, and when they do subside it doesn't mean we will go straight down.
The hard part for investors is balancing the extreme emotions and the likelihood that they persist against making prudent buys and keeping risks contained. While following the crowd is usually a great way to make money, doing so always becomes costly chaos at some point. We need to respect the crowd but maintain objectivity and be ready to stand aside when they start to shift.
If you want to make money, you have to be ready for more irrational exuberance but you also must be prepared to move quickly when it fizzles.
After a very strong finish last night, we have a little softness this morning. There isn't a whole lot of news out there. We're hearing talk once again about a deal between Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo! (YHOO) , and the bank stress tests are a focus in front of results that are due out on Thursday.
Good luck and go get 'em.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AIMC +17.7%, PEGA +17.6%, THC +14.8%, ATSI +13.1%, HLF +12.9%, RUTH +11.3%, ICON +9.6%, MGM +9.1% (also upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill), TAST +7.3%, HLS +7.1%, TRMA +5.8% (light volume), VRX +5.6%, IPHS +5.1%, FCL +4.3%, CTSH +3.9%, TXRH +3.8%, SYKE +2.4%, KFT +2.2%, TEVA +2.1%, CVS +1.5%... M&A news: ELX +1.4% (Broadcom commences all cash tender offer to purchase Emulex shares for $9.25 per share)... Select financial related names trading higher: PUK +5.9%, FIG +5.9%, HBC +3.4%, RBS +1.9%... Select metals/mining names showing modest strength: GG +2.1%, ABX +2.0%, GLD +1.1%... Select shipping names trading higher: EGLE +7.5%, EXM +4.4%, DSX +3.9%, DRYS +3.7%, GNK +2.9%, TBSI +2.6%... Select stem cell related names showing strength: STEM +5.2% and GERN +3.6% (UC Davis researchers awarded new stem cell grants)... Other news: ALKS +9.9%, AMLN +9.2% and LLY +2.6% (Amylin Pharms, Eli Lilly and Alkermes announce a New Drug Application for exenatide once weekly has been submitted to the FDA), XTXI +9.3% (still checking), TKLC +9.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMonay), BZH +4.6% (still checking), YHOO +1.9% (Steve Ballmer visits Silicon Valley, Yahoo Search deal rumors buzz - Tech Crunch)... Analyst comments: ACAD +19.7% (continued momentum from yesterday's 100% jump; upgraded to Outperform at JMP), LVS +12.6% (upgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), BEAV +6.7% (upgraded to Outperform at Cowen), S +2.6% (upgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), JBL +1.6% (initiated with a Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: HOLX -21.5% (also downgraded by multiple analysts), IUSA -16.1% (light volume), HLIT -15.9%, MYGN -14.8%, EXBD -11.5% (also downgraded to Neutral at Baird), LM -10.9%, PQ -8.7%, HAIN -8.6%, OTTR -7.4%, ADM -6.6%, DHI -5.4%, CHK -4.9%, RDN -4.5%, AKS -4.2%, MCK -4.1%, TX -3.9%, ALU -3.8%, VMC -2.4%, UBS -2.3%... Select iron/steel names showing weakness following AKS guidance: STLD -3.3%, X -2.6%, NUE -1.7%... Select financials pulling back: AXA -7.8%, CS -4.8%, PNC -4.0%, COF -3.2%, AIB -3.1%, DB -1.9%, USB -1.6%... Other news: NMM -11.3% (announces public offering of 3,500,000 common units), HEP -6.9% (announces public offering of 2 mln units), HCP -4.2% (prices offering of 18 mln shares at a price per share of $21.25), ALGT -1.0% (announces proposed common stock offering)... Analyst comments: EPIC -5.4% (downgraded to Hold at Keybanc), AAP -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan), NVDA -1.1% (downgraded to Hold at Wedbush Morgan). -
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) on nüüd tulemuste järel väga kõvasti pihta saamas. Jah, aktsia ongi ajalooliselt olnud väga volatiilne ja kauplemisvõimalusi pakkuv, kuid praegust -12%list liikumist pean juba ülereageeringuks.
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Wells Fargo, deemed to need $13.7bn of capital by the US government’s stress test last week, claims to have the earning power to fill its capital deficit by November and apply to repay “as soon as practical” $25bn of government funds.
“We think we already have a lot of capital and, with our earnings, we are accumulating regulatory capital at a very high rate,” said Howard Atkins, chief financial officer.
Madis: Jälle üks praalija?
