Börsipäev 8. mai
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Täna kell 15.30 tehakse teatavaks USA aprillikuu tööjõuraporti numbrid. Ametlikuks ootuseks on -600 000 ning töötusmäära kerkimist oodatakse 8.9% peale.
Eilse stresstesti tulemuste kohta kirjutasin 7. mai börsipäeva hilisõhtul, aga panen (ametlike) kapitalivajaduste nimekirja siia veel ka täna:
Bank of America $33.9 mld
Wells Fargo $13.7 mld
GMAC $11.5 mld
Citigroup $5.5 mld
Regions $2.5 mld
Suntrust $2.2 mld
KeyCorp $1.8 mld
Morgan Stanley $1.8 mld
Fifth Third $1.1 mld
PNC $0.6 mld
AmEx $0.0 mld
BB&T $0.0 mld
BNYM $0.0 mld
Capital One $0.0 mld
Goldman Sachs $0.0 mld
JPMC $0.0 mld
MetLife $0.0 mld
State Street $0.0 mld
USB $0.0 mld
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Kuulujuttude kohaselt on C-l eeldatavalt vaja kaasata ~40 mld lisakapitali, mis siiski C kõva lobitöö alusel rahandusministeeriumis kergelt väiksemaks muudeti -> 5.5 mld. Eks aeg näitab, kui palju neil veel raha vaja on ja kuidas või kust nad veel raha kaasata suudavad.
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Kergelt karune tekst Wang Qishan-ilt vahelduseks:
Chinese State Council Vice Premier Wang Qishan wrote in an editorial Friday that the global financial crisis and economic slump are getting worse, in contrast to more optimistic recent comments from U.S. officials. "The global financial crisis is still spreading. The world economy is going to get worse before it gets better, and the situation remains serious," Wang said in a commentary published in the Financial Times. Wang called for greater cooperation between the U.K. and China in order to foster recovery, and repeated earlier comments by other Chinese officials calling for more international regulation to prevent future crises.
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Alari, mäletatavasti on Citil TARP rahast 300 miljardiline liin. peaks katma nii 5 miljardit, kui 40 miljardit.
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to:Sidekick
Tekst on rohkem suunatud stress testi kui farsi kohta, mitte otseseid numbreid välja tuua. -
kahjuks mul puudub data väitmaks, et stress test oli farss
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Mul on mõningane info, et stress-test oli farss.
1) Stress-testi on juba varasematel aastatel tehtud ja see võttis oluliselt lihtsamates tingimustes paar aastat aega.
2) Milline on tänasel päeval varade hindamise usaldusväärsus? Kes teab varade õiglast hinda? -
Juhul, kui C oma vajamineva kapitali koguse numbri suutis lobitööga alla saada, kas siis mitte pole tegemist farsiga?
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aga see on rumor, mitte fakt.
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to:SideKick
Eks aeg näitab palju selles nn. stress testis tõde ja palju mitte (150 ametnikku auditeerisid 19 panka ~1 kuuga??). -
Listist võib järeldada et BAC tegi kõige vähem lobitööd :)
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CANADA APR NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: 35.9K V -50.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 8.0% V 8.3%E
FIRST RISE IN EMPLOYMENT SINCE OCT 2008 -
Kiirtoit läheb ikka kaubaks:
McDonald's April Global comparable sales +6.9%; U.S. increased 6.1%; Europe increased 8.4%; Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa increased 6.5 -
Inimesed söövad saasta. Olgem ausad, selle kuulsa kiirtoidubrändi kohalolek Eesti Vabariigis kajastub juba selgelt selle põlvkonna kehaproportsioonides, kelle väljakujunemine on toimunud nende tegelaste siin laiutamise ajal... Two thumbs down! MCD aktsia aga on osa trendist, mille nimi on "bull market in cheap."
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Aprillis kaotati USAs töökohti 539 000 vs ametlikult oodatud 600 000. Töötusmäär 8.9%. Märtsikuus kaotatud töökohtade arv hinnati allapool 699 000 peale.
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Today's Test Is a Big One for the Bulls
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/8/2009 8:14 AM EDT
Suppose you were an idiot and suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself.
-- Mark Twain
We have a repeat of yesterday morning's action with a frenzy of bank buying as yet again the market celebrates that the stress test results were not as bad as feared. The fact that we are now rallying for the third or fourth time on the same news shows what a nice job the Obama administration did in handling this information.
Once again the early excitement is likely to cool off quickly and investors will then focus on the cost of raising capital and the prospects for earnings in the future. At the moment we are celebrating once again that there isn't any imminent collapse on the way. The worst scenario for the market is another AIG (AIG) or Bear Stearns, and that now seems extremely unlikely.
I suspect the bears will be eyeing the financials once again after the success they had fading yesterday morning's excitement, but we have a little extra twist this morning with the jobs news coming up at 8.30 a.m. EDT.
There is some optimism that jobs may not be as bad as expected. The ADP report and the weekly claims were pointing to some improvement, and the recent optimism about the economy in general has hopes a bit higher.
So given the good reaction to the stress test and assuming that the jobs news is favorable, the big question is whether the market can continue to run. We had a pretty good bout of profit-taking yesterday and really saw some of the hot momentum in smaller stocks cool off. The experience for the last six weeks or so has been that we come roaring back from every dip, and it certainly looks that way in the early going this morning.
However, you have to wonder a bit if buyers are getting a little tired. We have not had more than two down days of correction since this rally began back in March. That has created enormous pressure on underinvested bulls, who are continually forced to pay up if they want to have some long exposure. Many of them have been hoping and praying for pullbacks and they have kept a bid under this market for quite a while.
The ability to hold on to the positive open this morning is going to be a good test of the health of recent momentum. If the hot money is starting to pull back, then we should see a rather quick fade again this morning. It will then turn into a test of the resolve of dip-buyers. Will they really step up with some vigor when we finally do have more weakness?
Yesterday we definitely had some cracks in the momentum. This morning the bulls are trying to get it going again. We likely have some bears being squeezed, which is helping in the early going, but I'm skeptical that momentum can heat up again to the same levels we saw a few days ago. Jobs will be a short-term catalyst, and if there is a positive reaction to that report on top of the strength we already have, then I'll be looking for the sellers to start hitting the strength.
It should be a good battle. The bulls have had good momentum, but rallying on the same bank news once again isn't very good ammunition. On the other hand, we have dip-buyers looking for pullbacks and beat-up shorts who have been constantly beat up lately and don't have much resolve.
So buckle on your trading helmet and be ready to move. It should be an interesting day.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ACY +46.9% (thinly traded), BCRX +34.9%, FSYS +17.6%, EBS +16.9%, ARP +15.6% (light volume), LMIA +15.3%, MNTG +11.9%, SAH +11.8%, EXEL +10.7% (also Exelixis and Boehringer Ingelheim enter into collaboration for development of S1P1 receptor agonists in the field of autoimmune diseases), HTGC +10.4%, TC +8.0%, VRSN +7.9% (also upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), HANS +7.7%, DXPE +7.6%, NVAX +6.7ac%, AIRM +6.5% (light volume), IPI +6.4%, EP +5.6%, SAPE +5.3%, AIG +4.6%, ATVI +4.5% (also upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill), AGO +4.2%, WTW +4.0%, THOR +3.6%, SPF +3.1%, PCR +3.1%, MCD +3.0%, NILE +1.0%... M&A news: VNUS +34.6% (announces that it has reached agreement to be acquired by Covidien for $29.00 per share)... Select financials showing strength: FITB +21.7% (to strengthen Tier 1 common equity by $1.1 bln; also upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein), HBAN +15.7%, FIG +15.1%, RBS +15.0% (surged 13.5% in overseas trading), C +11.5% (to expand public exchange offers by $5.5 bln to meet U.S. Government Stress Test Requirements), RF +10.9% (announces Supervisory Capital Assessment Program Findings; to increase common equity by $2.5 bln), BAC +9.4% (stress test shows that in order to weather two years of the most severe economic circumstance, it would need to increase Tier 1 common capital by $33.9 bln; also upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at Wachovia), KEY +9.1% (overall capital sufficient; to lift common equity by $1.8 bln), STT +8.5% (passes Stress Test with substantial capital buffer; also upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill), CIT +8.1%, ING +7.2%, USB +7.2% (The Federal Reserve indicates "no need" for additional capital buffer), DB +4.8%, BBT +4.7% (capital levels exceed stress test requirements; don't need to raise capital), BK +4.4% (says stress test results are strong; company not required to raise additional capital), JPM +4.3% (announces that government concludes no need for JPMorgan Chase to raise additional capital), AZ +4.3%, BX +4.1%, AXP +3.7% (Stress Test finds "no capital need"; files for permission to repay govt funds), COF +3.4% (says passes government stress test), PNC +3.4% (announces that it plans to satisfy the requirement to increase common shareholders' equity by $600 mln), MET +3.0% (has adequate capital to sustain a further deterioration in the economy), STI +2.9% (responds to U.S. Government's stress test report), GS +2.8% (Federal Reserve determines Goldman Sachs does not require further capital; will soon repay TARP investment), ... Select oil/gas names trading higher: E +3.8%, WFT +3.8%, TOT +3.0%, OXY +2.5%, SLB +2.3%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: ACH +10.8%, MT +4.7%, GOLD +3.6% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup)... Select shipping names trading higher: NM +12.9%, EGLE +5.1%.. Other news: CYTX +27.2% (the co and GE Healthcare announce an agreement by which GE Healthcare will commercialize Cytori's StemSource technology), CDNS +19.0% (continued momentum from yesterday's jump), ONNN +11.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), BRCD +9.5% (still checking)... Analyst comments: AXL +29.1% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), SI +3.0% (upgraded to Buy at RBS). -
/ India Sensex 30 N/A (börs suletud)
täna -1,98% -
From: Vikram Pandit
Sent: Thursday, May 07, 2009 7:26 PM
Subject: Stress Test Results
As many of you know, the results of the U.S. government’s stress testing of 19 bank holding companies, including Citi, have just been released. The world has been anxiously awaiting these results, and I’m glad that they’re finally public. In certain respects, this stress test was more critical for us than for others — because it created the transparency and confidence that we all need to move forward.
The stress test was rigorous and thorough, and tested all of the banks’ ability to weather a significant level of economic stress. As a result of the test outcome, we will implement a relatively small expansion of our previously announced public exchange offer. This expanded offering, along with previously announced actions (including the Smith Barney Joint Venture and the announced sale of Nikko Cordial Securities), are expected to fully satisfy the capital cushion outlined by the stress test results. We plan to launch this exchange offer shortly.
The results of the test validate the strategy and actions we have taken during the last 15 months to get our company fit. As you know, we have moved aggressively, reducing expenses by 25% and headcount by nearly 20% from their peak in 2007. Through your hard work, we have also reduced the balance sheet by 23% from its peak, completed 23 divestitures and sharpened our strategic focus by separating the company into Citicorp and Citi Holdings. You have done all this while remaining focused on our clients and customers, allowing us to maintain the strength of our core franchise.
All of your hard work is what has brought us to this point. I want to thank you for your commitment to the company and for your perseverance over the last 15 months. We had to make a lot of tough decisions and take bold actions. While there are still challenges ahead of us and there is still work to do, the actions we have taken and the plans we have announced, together with the results of the stress test, should put questions about our financial strength behind us.
I look forward to turning the page on this chapter and sharpening our focus on running our businesses, executing our strategy and serving our clients without distraction.
We are getting our house in order, we have clarified our strategic focus through the separation of Citicorp and Citi Holdings — and as I said at our Annual Shareholder’s Meeting, I am looking forward to a bold new beginning for our company.
Citicorp’s strategy and the direction for Citi Holdings are clear. We are the world’s most global bank and we have an enviable global network that is almost impossible to replicate — in both the institutional and consumer businesses. We serve 98% of the Fortune 500 and 99% of the Global Fortune 500. Many of these relationships are built around our unique platform around the world where we’re often the only provider with the global capabilities our clients require. Our international consumer banking franchise is unparalleled and we’re able to leverage our globality and aspirational brand to retail customers throughout the world.
Building on this strength is what we all have to be focused on.
I want to thank you for all your support and hard work throughout the past year and I’m looking forward to writing the next chapter with you and to a bright future for Citi. -
Kes tahavad USA tööjõuraporti numbrite sisust paremat ülevaadet saada, siis soovitan soojalt vaadata mu vastavateemalist artiklit, kus olen viimaste kuude ja 2008. aasta terviku kohta toonud erinevate kategooriate kaupa muutused ära. Kui valitsus poleks üle 70 000 töökoha sel kuul liitnud, oleks töökohtade kaotuse number ikkagi sinna 600 000 kanti tulnud.
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Saksamaa DAX +2.65%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +2.29%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.12%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.89%
Venemaa MICEX +1.21%
Poola WIG -0.7%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.5
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.09%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.07%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.75%
Tai Set 50 N/A (börs suletud)
India Sensex 30 -1.98%
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Tulemuste tabel hommikuste näitudega uuendatud - link siin.
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DryShips to offer $475 million common stock
Oppenheimer analyst Scott Burk downgraded the stock to "perform" from "outperform" and suspended the company's price target citing near-term weakness on this offering.
"This is the company's third ATM offering since November, which has increased the share count from 43 million to 185 million currently," Burk said.
However, Burk said this offering would not be as bad for shareholders as the $500 million offering in January, which helped push the stock as low as $3.20 per share.
Ma nüüd natuke võtsin 8,35. -
Turg seda mängu ei toeta, aga DRYS offering taob ka muud drybulki mutta, ehk oleks targem olnud üldse teisi osta või eemal olla, aga näeb. Lootma ei jää. Kui praegune ei pea, siis välja.
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Ei ole õige päev või õige aeg, out.
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DryShips: Hearing downgraded to Sell at Cantor (8.39 -1.61)
Note this is third DRYS downgrade today. -
ei ole mingit kukkumist märgata ja kui ausalt öelda siis ei usu ka .
