Börsipäev 4. juuni
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Ülevaade tänastest majandusuudistest USA turul:
- 15:30 – The Labour Department avaldab „initial claims“ ehk esmakordselt töötusabirahale taotlevate inimeste arvu 30. maiga lõppenud nädalal. Möödunud nädalal langes taotlejate arv 13,00 võrra ehk 623,000-le. Konsensus prognoosib, et taotlejate arv kukkus seekord aga 620,000-le. Raporti mõju turgudele on suur.
- 15:30 – väljastatakse „nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs y-o-y“ ehk teisisõnu tööjõu tootlikkuse ja tööjõukulude raport. Analüütikud hindavad mõju turgudele väikeseks.
- 16:00 – 30 aasta võlakirja oksjon
- 17:30 – EIA maagaasi raport
- 18:00 – 3 kuu võlakirja oksjon
- 18:00 – 6 kuu võlakirja oksjon
- 18:00 – 3 aasta võlakirja oksjon
- 18:00 – 10 aasta võlakirja oksjon
- 23:30 – Föderaalreservi bilansileht ehk „FED Balance Sheet“
- 23:30 – rahapakkumine (money supply)
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Nii Euroopa kui Inglise keskpank otsustasid repomäära samaks jätta: vastavalt 1% ja 0.5%. Poole nelja ajal algavat pressikonverentsi on võimalik jälgida siit, kus Trichet räägib täpsemalt võlakirjade ostuprogrammi detailidest ja värsketest ECB Staff inflatsiooni ja majanduskasvu prognoosidest.
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Citi tõstab Google'i (GOOG) hinnasihi $580-ni varasemalt $450-lt. Aktsia on jätkuvalt analüütiku top pick suurte internetifirmade hulgas. Kolm peamist põhjust hinnasihi tõstmiseks on analüüsis järgnevad:
1) Extensive Channel Checks & Sensitivity Analysis Support Q2 Estimates
2) Cyclical And Other Factors Point To 2010 GOOG EPS Upside
3) "Smartphone Summer" & Other DPoints Highlight New Mobile Secular Driver
Siiski tundub, et Citi analüüs midagi põrutavat ei lisa ja hinnasihti tõsteti lihtsalt seetõttu, et aktsia oli praktiliselt täitnud vana hinnasihi. Seega ei ootaks täna Citi note'i toel märkimisväärset ostuhuvi GOOG aktsias. -
Citigroup tõstis eile Gigamedia (GIGM) hinnasihi enne ettevõtte poolt 9. juunil (enne turgu) teatatavaid kvartalitulemusi $8 peale. Kvartalitulemuste ootused EPSi ja tulude osas on võrreldes turu ootustega marginaalselt allpool.
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Täna on meedias taaskord palju juttu Palm'i (PALM) laupäeval müügile jõudvast nutitelefonist Pre. Nimelt on juhtivad väljaanded avalikustanud arvustused Palm'i uue mudeli kohta, mis valdavalt on positiivsed. Huvitav lugemine on näiteks Wall Street Journal'i artikkel või Engadget'i arvustus.
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Initial Claims 621K vs 620K consensus, prior revised to 625K from 623K; Continuing Claims 6.73 mln, prior 6.78 mln
Q1 Nonfarm Productivity- Final +1.6% vs +1.2% consensus, prior +0.8%
Q1 Unit Labor Costs- Final +3.0% vs +2.9% consensus, prior +3.3%
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Esimese kvartali oodatust suurema eurotsooni majanduslanguse tõttu korrigeeris ECB Staff oma prognoose allapoole: 2009. aasta majanduslanguseks oodatakse -5.1- (-4.1%) ja 2010. aasta näitajaks -1%-(+0.4%). Varasemad prognoosid olid järgmised: -3.2-(-2.2%) ja -0.7-(+0.7%). Inflatsiooniks prognoositakse aga 2009. aastal 0.1-0.5% ja 2010. aastaks 0.6-1.4%.
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Saksamaa DAX+0.65%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.80%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.12%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.02%
Venemaa MICEX +0.36%
Poola WIG +1.16%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.75%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.40%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.41%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.38%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -2.45%
Tai Set 50 +2.18%
India Sensex 30 +0.93%
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Whatever Works
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/4/2009 8:49 AM EDT
"Build a system that even a fool can use, and only a fool will want to use."
-- George Bernard Shaw
After a very strong bounce that has lasted about three months, now there is plenty of discussion about how much further things can go. As is always the case, we have some compelling bullish arguments and some equally astute bearish beliefs. The main reason the market is so hard is that there is never a shortage of highly intelligent people on either side.
Yesterday I mentioned an astrological indicator that called for a market turn. I also saw some discussion of a formula based on application of Fibonacci numbers that says the S&P 500 has significant resistance at 944. The bulls can easily trot out plenty of their own indicators and arguments showing why momentum should continue and how investors are poorly positioned for more upside.
The key to successful investing isn't the particular indicators or logic that you use but the fact that you use some sort of framework that helps you to control your losses and gains. You will have good luck and bad luck and some winning stocks and some losers. If you manage them right, you will come out ahead, and if you don't, it won't much matter how good your indicators might be.
Astrology may work just as well for providing an investment management framework as fundamental or technical analysis. It will always boil down to how you apply the rules to your particular situation.
The important thing is that you have some sort of investment management system that acts as a safety net. If it is triggered by the phases of the moon, that is perfectly fine, as long as it helps you to prevent outsized losses and helps you protect your precious gains.
At this point in the market development, there are main momentum investors who are staying with the uptrend because it is still intact. Their approach to the market has not signaled any strong reason to sell. On the other hand, those who tend to be more contrarian and look for extremes may be ramping up their selling.
Neither approach is inherently better. Success will depend on the individual, the way it is implemented and the stocks that are picked.
This is my longwinded way of saying that you should stay disciplined. The market always seems to be at some important juncture, and you can go crazy trying to constantly react. Make sure you have a style that you are comfortable with and just keep plugging away.
We have a mild start on the way. Interest rates overseas were left unchanged, Goldman Sachs (GS) and Apple (AAPL) have target increases, and weekly unemployment is coming up.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: DDMX +14.4% (light volume), CONN +11.3%, GIII +7.8% (also upgraded to Buy at Lazard Capital Mkts), CMTL +6.3%, SMRT +5.8%, SCMR +5.3%, SAI +5.3%, PSS +3.7%, ARO +1.9%, SIG +1.8%, GPS +1.6% (light volume)... M&A news: WIND +43.5% (Intel to acquire Wind River Systems for $11.50/share in cash)... Select financial related names showing strength: KEY +4.3% (upgraded to Top Pick at RBC), BCS +2.8%, DB +2.6%, CS +2.0%, UBS +1.8%, C +1.8%, GS +1.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein), JPM +1.0%... Select large cap drug names trading higher: SNY +3.6%, GSK +2.4%, SHPGY +2.3%... Other news: NVAX +31.0% (Novavax and the NIH agree to evaluate a virus-like particle vaccine candidate against the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus), OCLS +26.5% (announces FDA clears expanded label claim for Microcyn wound care product), TCL +10.4% (still checking), AGEN +9.4% (continued momentum from this week's 150%+surge higher), HGSI +8.3% (still checking), TER +6.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), LZB +5.9% (continued momentum from yesterday's 30%+climb higher), MGM +1.5% (MGM Mirage in talks for casinos in Taiwan - Reuters)... Analyst comments: ATHR +4.1% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), BP +1.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas), FTI +1.5% (upgraded to Outperform at FBR Capital), AMTD +1.1% (initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/same store sales: GMTN -15.8%, SKS -8.6%, ANF -8.5%, CIEN -8.1%, MATK -7.4%, PLCE -7.3%, HOTT -5.2%, BJ -3.8%, FDO -3.5%, JCP -3.3% (light volume), TGT -2.7%, COST -1.8%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: BHP -4.1%, BBL -3.7%, AAUK -2.7%, RTP -2.3% (Chinalco may revise Rio deal before deadline: Sources - Reuters)... Select shipping names ticking lower: PRGN -3.5%, DRYS -1.8% (announces that it has entered into agreements to cancel the previously announced acquisition of a 180,000 dwt Capesize newbuilding), EXM -1.5%... Other news: CODI -17.7% (prices 5.1 mln shares at $8.85/share), GU -14.2% (temporarily suspends production at Fujian Gushan), VPHM -6.9% (receives complete response letter for Cinryze; FDA has requested an additional clinical study), AIB -6.9% (still checking), ICON -6.6% (priced a 9.2 mln share common stock offering at $15/share), UAUA -6.4% (reports May consolidated traffic results; also WSJ reports United plans huge jet order), HBAN -5.1% (prices public offering of 90 mln shares of common stock at $3.60/share)... Analyst comments: CAR -4.9% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS), MICC -1.8% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), DNR -1.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus, based on valuation), NYX -1.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets). -
Mida maagaasi raport teatas? UNG pani täiega alla.
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Natural gas inventory showed a build of 124 bcf, analysts were expecting a build of 115 bcf, ranging from a build of 105 bcf to a build of 125 bcf.
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James Altucher ütleb RealMoney's täna niimoodi:
I am buying the U.S. Natural Gas ETF (UNG) for my long-term account: I'm looking for a 50% to 100% return in the next 12 to 18 months.
Natural gas producers like Anadarko (APC), Ultra Petroleum (UPL) and Chesapeake (CHK) are all up huge off their bottoms, despite the underlying commodity lagging. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs just put a $85-95 projected price on oil. While the ETF does not correlate 100% with the spot price (issues regarding rolling over forward contracts), the general theme still applies. It is also a hedge on the dollar and a play on a worldwide recovery.
Mina isiklikult pikaajalisse portfelli UNG'd osta ei soovita (tugeva contango efekti tõttu) - selleks on paremad ikkagi maagaasitootjate endi aktsiad.
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Barron's on teinud kokkuvõtte viimasel ajal heas hoos oleva Doug Kassi esinemisest eilsel Barry Ritholtzi poolt korraldatud konverentsil. Lisaks üldisemale jutule on välja toodud ka paar konkreetset long ja short ideed:
As for his longs, Kass says the biggest banks -- those "that suck off the teat of the Administration" -- offer the best opportunities. Biggies such as Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC) are enjoying huge deposit growth and massive net-interest margins from the steep yield curve. The exception: Citigroup (C), which he sees trading between $2 and $5 share, versus $3.39 at Wednesday's close, for years.
Meanwhile, Kass is shorting asset managers such as Franklin Resources (BEN) and T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) because of the likelihood of slow inflows from a disillusioned investing public. In addition, 110 S&P 500 companies said in the first quarter they would stop matching employees' 401(k) contributions, a major source of funds for the asset managers.
Link täispikale artiklile asub siin.
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Nafta jätkuvalt tugev, üheks põhjuseks ka Goldman Sachsi naftahinna prognoosi tõstmine varasema $65 pealt $85-ni. 2010. aasta lõpuks nähakse nafta jõudmist $95-ni. Mäletavasti oli just GS see, kes eelmise aasta märtsis prognoosis, et nafta lühikese ajaga $200-ni tõuseb.
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Maagaas on pärast varude raporti järgset 5%list miinusesse langemist lõpetamas päeva +1.8% juures. Muljetavaldav ostuhuvi. UNG'l on täna kogu kauplemisajaloo suurima käibega päev.
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Joel, sina kui asjaga rohkem kursis olev. Kas neid maagaasi ettevõtteid mingis fondis või indeksaktsias suuremal määral arvesse ka võetakse. Või jääb nende osakaal enamasti marginaalseks?
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Nagu ma aru saan, on küsimuse mõte, et kui soovida investeerida maagaasi ettevõtetesse, aga mitte teha seda läbi ühe ettevõtte, et milline oleks sellisel juhul hajutatud alternatiiv. Üks võimalus oleks börsilkaubeldav fond sümboliga FCG, mille koostises olevad aktsiad teenivad suure osa oma tuludest maagaasi otsimisest ja puurimisest (eks muidugi päris puhtatõulisi maagaasi ettevõtteid väga palju ei ole ning seetõttu osa tuludest tuleb kindlasti ka naftast). Aga FCG näol on tegu hästi hajutatud fondiga.
Suurima aktsia oskaal jääb 4% piiresse. FCG suurimad investeeringud: Goodrich Petroleum Corp, Sandridge Energy Inc, Quicksilver Resources, W&T Offshore Inc, Noble Energy Inc, Chesapeake Energy Corp, Pengrowth Energy Trust, Forest Oil Corporation, Mcmoran Explorat, Newfield Exploration Co
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Tänud! Kuigi FCG teinud märtsi põhjast tubli hüppe, loodan et veel pole hilja...
