Börsipäev 15. juuni
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Sarnaselt Aasia turgudega on täna hommikul punased ka Euroopa turud ja USA futuurid. S&P500 futuur -1.0% @ 935 punkti, nafta -1.4% @ $71.0 barrelist.
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Kiire ülevaade USA turul toimuvast:
15:30 - NY Empire Manufacturing Index. Konsensus ootab juunikuu tulemuseks -5.10.
16:00 - Net Long-Term TIC Flows ehk kapitali liikumine USA piiridest väljapoole. Konsensus prognoosib aprillikuutulemuseks $52.9 miljardit.
18:00 - 4 nädala võlakirja oksjon
20:00 - 3 kuu võlakirja oksjon
20:00 - 6 kuu võlakirja oksjon
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Citi tõstab täna Yahoo! (YHOO) reitingu "Osta" peale hinnasihiga $21 (varasemalt vastavalt "Hoia" ja $15). Siiski ei ole analüütiku argumendid vähemalt minu arvates kõige veenvamad, sest Yahoo EBITDA ja FCF kordajad on alati olnud ühed tööstusharu madalaimad:
Upgrading YHOO To Buy With a $21 PT – Despite a 34% rally YTD, YHOO shares have underperformed all Large Cap Internet stocks, all Large Cap Media stocks, and the broader market since March lows. Despite indications of market share stabilization, improved management focus & still significant strategic option value, YHOO trades at one of the lowest EBITDA & FCF multiples of the Large Cap ‘Nets. And despite its position as one of the leading Internet properties, YHOO’s EBITDA and FCF valuation carries no material premium to traditional Large Cap Media stocks. We believe this sets up YHOO as the Large Cap Internet Turnaround/Value Play. Hence, the upgrade… -
June NY Empire Manufacturing Index -9.41 vs -4.60 consensus, prior -4.55
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Never Underestimate the Power of Momentum
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/15/2009 7:57 AM EDT
A knowledge of the path cannot be substituted for putting one foot in front of the other.
-- M.C. Richards
It is Monday morning, and the market doesn't look like it is ready to go to work. Overseas markets are mostly down, primarily due to energy, mining and commodity stocks, which are down on a stronger U.S. dollar.
There isn't much news of consequence out there, but we keep hearing the phrase "too far, too fast" lately, and with the indices unable to make much progress recently, a more defensive mindset may be seeping into the market.
The great question at this point is how much should we anticipate a market pullback when the indices have yet to anything wrong? It is extremely hard to argue with the idea that we may have rallied too far too fast, but on the other hand that was also the case a month ago. This rally has had legs in large part because it has surprised so many with its sustained vigor. It has not allowed for easy entry, and that has produced very stubborn underlying bids.
What has been most interesting about the market action over the last couple of weeks isn't the major indices, which have done little, but some of the sectors. While the market has looked a bit tepid, we've had very active momentum trading in places like low-priced biotechnology, China-related names, big-cap technology, energy and commodities. We're seeing a healthy appetite for risk, and traders have been willing to chase strong moves, which is something we didn't see at all last year and early this year.
The health of the market is going to be determined much more by the action in these pockets of momentum than by the technical conditions of the major indices. If the momentum trading dries up, the indices have a very good chance of falling out of their recent trading ranges. If we continue to see momentum traders actively and aggressively rotate to new names as they try to put money to work, however, the chances that the consolidation of the indices provides support for a further move higher are greatly improved.
This market is no longer being driven by "value." Value was what got things started back in March, but now what we have is just good old-fashioned momentum. And as I've written often, momentum seems to last longer than you think it will. Eventually it comes to an abrupt end and you have to move quickly to contain the damage, but one of the most frustrating things that happens to just about everyone at some point is that you anticipate a change in trend too early.
So momentum is the key, and the way to navigate this market will be to watch if hot groups stay hot and whether new hot groups emerge. We had some troubling action in some key big technology momentum names on Friday, but we still ended up with an OK close, which kept things mild. We have some softness again this morning, and we'll have a chance to see how active the dip-buyers are. Energy and commodities look to lead to the downside, but watch the medical-related and biotechnology names to see how confident the momentum money is under the surface.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
M&A news: CAV +17.9% (light volume; signs definitive agreement to be acquired by Southern Energy Homes for $2.75 in cash )... Other news: BDSI +28.6% (reached agreement with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Division of Anesthesia, Analgesia and Rheumatology Products and a multidisciplinary review team on all aspects of the NDA for ONSOLIS), NBS +24.4% (light volume; signs agreement with Shanghai Corp to develop a stem cell collection and treatment network in Shanghai, Taiwan and other targeted China provinces), JAZZ +21.2% (announces that data suggests sodium oxybate "significantly improves pain and the core symptoms of Fibromyalgia" ), HBAN +10.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), HEB +8.2% (still checking for anything specific), TQNT +6.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), DNN +5.0% (completes definitive agreements relating to cdn $94.9 million of equity financing and also a uranium offtake agreement with KEPCO ), SIGA +4.8% (announces that the FDA has advised that it does not anticipate requiring further nonclinical toxicology studies in support of an ST-246 NDA filing)... Analyst comments: ACN +1.6% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - Reuters), YHOO +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), TGT +1.1% (reinstated with a Buy at Goldman- tgt $51- Reuters).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ITW -2.8% (light volume)... Select financial names showing weakness: IRE -8.9% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche), AIB -8.3%, CIT -4.8%, LNC -4.2% (filed for a $600 mln common stock offering), ING -3.5%, DB -3.1%, HBC -2.8%, CS -2.6%, GNW -1.8% (retires 2009 long-term debt)... Select oil/gas related names trading lower: RDS.A -3.6%, TOT -3.2%, E -2.3%, COP -2.3%, BP -2.1%, XOM -1.0%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: VALE -6.6%, RTP -5.7%, MT -4.5%, SLV -3.4%, BBL -3.3%, BHP -3.3%, AU -1.4%... Select solar names trading lower: JASO -5.3% (downgraded to Hold at Lazard), ESLR -4.6%, SOL -4.6%, LDK -4.0%, SPWRA -3.9%, STP -3.1%, SOLF -2.8%, TSL -2.8%, CSIQ -2.5%, YGE -1.9%... Other news: CDII -10.7% (to raise $5 mln in registered direct offering; to sell 2,702,704 shares of common stock at $1.85/share ), AAV -7.4% (rescheduled shareholder meeting to July when it will consider the proposed conversion of the Fund to a growth oriented corporation), PTNR -5.9% (Hutchison seeks premium to sell its controlling shareholding in Partner Communications - Globes Online), STM -5.2% (Finmeccanica to sell STMicroelectronics share - AFP), TSM -4.8% (traded lower overseas), SAY -4.6% (still checking), ABAT -4.5% (announces $7 mln private placement of convertible preferred stock and warrants to three institutional investors), PALM -3.6% (NY Times reports there is no credible evidence, not even unsourced rumors, that Dell is trying to buy Palm), LUX -3.4% (still checking), NVS -1.3% (Alcon deal puts Novartis in a bind - WSJ)... Analyst comments: LEA -6.7% (downgraded to Underweight at Barclays), KBH -4.7% (cut to Sell at Goldman- Reuters ), HXL -4.1% (downgraded to Hold at Keybanc), MTH -3.5% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), CAG -2.9% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), WMT -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman- Reuters), KMB -1.3% (cut to Neutral from Buy at Goldman- Reuters), CLX -1.1% (removed from Conviction Buy list at Goldman, due to greater uncertainty around commodity environment - Reuters). -
April Net Long Term TIC Flows $11.2 bln vs $60.0 bln consensus, prior revised to $55.4 bln from $55.8 bln
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Hiina turud rikkusid täna mustri ära. USA eelturgudel on seis samuti negatiivne:
SPX -1.11 punkti, QQQQ -0.40 punkti ja IWM -0.79 punkti.
Saksamaa DAX -2.10%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.75%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.73%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.54%
Venemaa MICEX -4.07%
Poola WIG -1.26%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.95%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.07%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.67%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.58%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.88%
Tai Set 50 -2.82%
India Sensex 30 -2.38%
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Kristjan, ole hea mida need näitavad:
-June NY Empire Manufacturing Index -9.41 vs -4.60 consensus, prior -4.55 ( kas NY ehitusaktiivsust?)
-Net Long Term TIC Flows $11.2 bln vs $60.0 bln consensus, prior revised to $55.4 bln from $55.8 bln ? -
Nafta -3.4%, maagaas +4.3%. Rotation into gas?
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Interco,
NY Empire Manufacturing Index - New Yorki Föderaalreserv koostab iga kuu nii-öelda küsitluse, millest võtab osa 175 ettevõtte tegevjuhti (üldjuhul on tegemist tegevjuhtidega) erinevatest tööstussektoritest. Põhimõtteliselt prognoositakse New Yorki tööstussektori sentimenti ehk "aktiivsust" tulevaks kuuks.
Net Long Term TIC Flows või teisisõnu siis Net Long Term Treasury International Capital Flows - USA Rahandusministeerium registreerib finantsinstrumentide (Rahandusministeeriumi väärtpaberid, nii-öelda agentuuride väärtpaberid, korporatiivvõlakirjad ja etevõtete aktsiad) vooge USAsse ja USAst välja. "Net" tähendab neto ehk praegusel juhul soetavad välisriikide kodanikud/ettevõtted/valitsus jne. USA finantsinstrumente rohkem, kui USA kodanikud/ettevõtted/valitsused jne. soetavad välisriikide finantsinstrumente. Milleks seda üldse vaja on? USA majandus tugineb suuresti väliskapitalile, mistõttu kasutatakse TICd peamiselt välisnõudluse hindamiseks. Üldjuhul on raporti mõju suurem just võlakirjade turule ning ka dollarile, väiksem mõju on aktsiaturugele. Väliskapitali on vaja näiteks intressimäärade madalana hoidmiseks. Samuti indikeerib raport, kui suur nõudlus on dollari järele, sest finantsinstrumentide soetamiseks peab ostma USA dollareid. Kuna välisriikide nõudlus USA aktsiate järele on võrdlemisi väike (kui võrrelda teiste finantsinstrumentidega), siis raport aktsiaturgudele suurt mõju ei avalda.
Loodan, et sellest on abi. -
Joel kas oled maagaasis pikk ?
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matu111, Pro all oleme soovitanud osta nii maagaasi kui ka maagaasisektori aktsiaid. Seega näeme neis potentsiaali jah. Lühiajaliseks kauplemiseks UNG ja pikaajaliseks investeerimiseks CHK.
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Tänud!
Oli abi...
