Börsipäev 17. juuni
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
-
CNN on Baltikumi probleemid korralikult üles korjanud ja praegugi käivad live intervjuud sel teemal, et kas Lätist saab järgmine Island ja mis saab ülejäänud Balti riikidest, kui Läti ei saa laenu, devalveerib vms. Läti peaminister soovitas teistel riikidel Läti vigadest õppida, tuues näiteks, et Läti ei suutnud isegi buumiajastul oma eelarvet tasakaalustada. Baltikumi kollapsi mõju Rootsi SKP'le hinnatakse kuni 5%ni SKPst.
-
Nimeks on tabavalt pandud 'Latvia (Domino) Effect'
-
Nagu Läti foorumis eile juba välja toodi, kiitis meie lõunanaabri parlament heaks 2009-2010 eelarveprogrammi - samm, mida IMF ja EL loevad oma pressiteadetes julgeks ja vajalikuks, et vähendada fiskaalset tasakaalustamatust. Lähipäevadel vaadatakse vastuvõetud meetmed üheskoos üle ning langetatakse otsus laenu teise väljamakse suhtes.
Joaquin Almunia kommentaar: I very much welcome the vote by the Latvian parliament and the support given by the social partners to the package of budgetary savings. This is necessary to reduce the deficit to levels that are consistent with the need to overcome the present difficulties with the financial help of the EU and other contributors. The reduction in the deficit will have to continue in 2010 and in the next years, so as to anchor the economy in a credible and sustainable path. This should be done while preserving social fairness and avoiding that the cost of the adjustment falls on the most deprived parts of the population."
-
SocGen ajab karujuttu...
Most areas in the markets have now discounted a V-shaped recovery. Any doubt will trigger a rapid reversal in prices. I continue to be extremely sceptical and see recent events as part of a 1930s-like, long march to revulsion. Talking about long marches, nowhere in the world fills me with more scepticism than the Chinese economic recovery. The continued enthusiasm for all things China reminds me so much of the way investors were almost totally blind to the fact the US growth miracle was built on sand. China could be the biggest disappointment yet. -
UK aasta alguse töötusmäär tõusis 7.2%-ni.
The British unemployment rate in the three months ending in April rose to 7.2%, up from 6.5% in the three months to January, the Office for National Statistics reported Wednesday. The number of unemployed totaled 2.26 millions in the three months ending in April, a rise of 232,000 from the previous three-month period and a rise of 605,000 from the same period a year earlier. The seasonally-adjusted number of persons claiming jobless benefits rose 39,300 in May, equal to 4.8% of the workforce, the ONS said. Economists had forecast a 65,000 rise to 4.9% of the workforce.
-
Kiire ülevaade täna USA turul toimuvast:
15:30 - Tarbijahinna indeks (CPI). Konsensus prognooside kohaselt tõusis tarbijahinnaindeks maikuus 0.3 protsendipunkti ehk 0.3%-le. Aprillis oli indeksiks 0.0%. Raporti mõju on turgudele suur.
15:30 - Tarbijahinna indeks v.a. toidu ja energiahinnad. Konsensuse hinnangul langes aga "Core CPI" maikuus 0.2 protsendipunkti ehk 0.1%-le varasemalt 0.3%-lt. Raporti mõju turgudel on suur.
15:30 - Current Account Balance. Konsensuse prognoos (Q1) -$85.0 mld. Q408 oli tulemus -$132.8B. Mõju on turgudele väike.
16:00 - Ben Bernanke kõne (Föderaalreservi esimees)
17:30 - Crude Inventories ehk toornafta varud (EIA Petroleum Status Report). Mõju turgudele suur
-
May CPI M/M +0.1% vs +0.3% consensus, prior 0.0%
May CPI Y/Y -1.3% vs -0.9% consensus, prior -0.7%
May Core CPI M/M +0.1% vs +0.1% consensus, prior +0.3%
May Core CPI +1.8% vs +1.8% consensus +1.9% -
Q1 Current Account Balance -$101.5 bln vs -$85.0 bln consensus, prior revised to -$154 bln from -$132 bln
-
This Moment Calls for Firm Discipline
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/17/2009 8:42 AM EDT
Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishments.
-- Jim Rohn
One of the hardest things to do in the market is to determine whether a pullback after a big move is just a good buying opportunity or the beginning of a change in trend. If we are correct about a pullback just being a dip, we can buy into the weakness and make some good profits, but if we are wrong and find ourselves stuck in a market that is rolling over and changing trend, the losses can mount quickly. Unfortunately, there is no way we'll ever know for sure which approach will prove to be the right one until after the fact.
The key to dealing with this dilemma is to have a disciplined money management approach. Even if you believe we are seeing nothing more than a temporary dip, you still need to have a line in the sand where you take losses just in case you are wrong. One of the very frustrating things about disciplined money management is that no matter how smart you might be, you will invariably be stopped out of positions only to see them immediately reverse back up.
No money management system is going to deliver perfect results, but that isn't their primary function. The key function of money management is to reduce your risk of big losses should the market not act the way you hope it will. You have to pay a price for that insurance, and that price is that you will sell some stocks at less-than-optimal levels.
We are at a market juncture right now where it is extremely important to be disciplined. For more than three months, the market has made fools of anyone who thought that we were just seeing a bear-market rally that would soon fizzle. Time and again we have barely dipped before continuing higher. With that pattern in mind, there is going to be a strong inclination to give positions more room so you aren't left out when things turn back up again.
We may indeed reverse and go straight back up (just like we did in May) after a few days of weakness similar to what we are seeing right now. We have broken some important technical support and the momentum action has turned poor, but we haven't see any really panicky action like we did back in January and February.
The important thing is to control your risk and not let your hope that the bear market is over keep you from making moves to limit losses. Yes, you might end up selling at just the wrong time if you set stops too tight, but you can always buy positions back. A lot of folks have a mental block about buying something back that they just sold, but it can be very good strategy. Just think of it as paying an insurance premium.
After two days of weak action, the market is probably due for a relief bounce. The key will be whether the buyers can generate the same vigor they have had so often when they have come roaring back and run over any bears. It is looking like the dip-buyers may be losing some energy, but they haven't been tested yet. Be tough with your trading discipline and don't let losses grow if things don't work the way you think they will.
We have a minor positive start on the way. I see some good analyst upgrades, but guidance from FedEx (FDX) is worrisome.
----------------------------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SMG +4.9%, SLAB +4.2$... Select European drug related names showing strength: SNY +2.8%, AZN +1.3%... Other news: MIPI +29.2% (presents clinical data on prostate cancer diagnostic; demonstrates potential to rapidly detect prostate cancer), SVNT +27.6% (confirms FDA appointed arthritis advisory committee recommends U.S. FDA approval for KRYSTEXXA for refractory chronic gout; also upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Cowen and upgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), AGEN +18.6% (Antigenics QS-21 Adjuvant enters pivotal phase 3 clinical trial of GlaxoSmithKline's malaria vaccine), NBIX +11.0% (presents Elagolix data; no long-term bone risk during or after treatment), ALVR +7.2% (Alvarion and Open Range sign a multi-year contract for equipment and services expected at over $100 mln for 4G network across 17 states), EIG +4.3% (will replace Catapult Communications in the S&P SmallCap 600), GWR +3.3% (prices 4.0 mln common share offering at $24.50/share), LNC +2.7% (prices 40.0 mln common share offering at $15.00/share), RAI +2.4% (Jury rules in favor of R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company in patent suit), MYL +1.4% (receives FDA approval for additional strength of generic restoril)... Analyst comments: TNDM +3.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), NFLX +3.6% (May website traffic suggests Netflix could top its 2Q09 subscriber guidance - Lazard Capital Mkts), TXN +3.2% ( upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill), QCOM +2.0% (upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral; price target to $53 from $43 at Goldman- Reuters).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RVI -5.1% (light volume), FDX -2.7%, ADBE -2.1%... Select financial names showing weakness: AIB -9.5%, IRE -4.7%, ING -4.1%, RBS -1.0% (Royal Bank of Scotland chief warns about higher property losses- FT.com)... Select potash stocks trading lower following K+S warning on weak European demand: POT -3.0%, MOS -2.9%, IPI -2.9%, CF -2.2%, AGU -2.1%, SQM -2.0%, SYT -1.8%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: RTP -5.3% (receives China "monopoly" challenge - Times Online), MT -3.7%, GOLD -3.7%, AAUK -2.8%, GOLD -2.5% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital), SLW -2.5%, BBL -1.6%... Other news: STSI -72.2% (confirms jury verdict announced in Star Scientific patent infringement lawsuit against RJ Reynolds), ETFC -15.2% (reports May DARTS increased 4% MoM and 34% YoY; also announces $1.2 bln plan to strengthen capital structure; includes common equity offering, debt exchange transactions), JAZZ -5.0% (still checking), WLL -4.0% (announces public offering of 3,000,000 shares convertible perpetual preferred stock), MTXX -2.9% (confirms it is voluntarily withdrawing Zicam Cold Remedy Swabs and Zicam Cold Remedy Gel from the market), WPI -2.0% (to Acquire Arrow Group for $1.75 bln; expected to be accretive to EPS in 2010), TRP -2.0% (to issue 50,800,000 common shares at C$31.50/share and agrees to become the sole owner of the Keystone Pipeline System)... Analyst comments: PKG -3.4% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), COMS -2.5% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein), PCL -2.0% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), UL -1.3% (downgraded to Sell at UBS). -
USA eelturgudel oli seis järgmine: SPY +0.08%, QQQQ +0.28% ja IWM -0.06%.
Mujal maailmas olid liikumised järgmised:
Saksamaa DAX -1.23%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.21%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.10%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -2.00%
Venemaa MICEX -4.12%
Poola WIG -1.61%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.90%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.45%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.23%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.02%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.68%
Tai Set 50 -2.11%
India Sensex 30 -2.91%
-
Dave Rosenberg jälle:
IS BOOMING MONEY SUPPLY REALLY INFLATIONARY?
Not when you are in a liquidity trap, which is where we are. The problem with
the Fed's monetary experiment is that the money supply boost is still not
circulating through the economy but rather sitting on bank balance sheets. At
least there's no delinquency risk with net free reserves.
Paul Krugman uses some great historical examples in his Monday column in the
NYT (Stay the Course). Between 1929 and 1939, the monetary base doubled
(and the dollar devalued) and yet prices deflated 19%. In fact, despite seven
years of New Deal stimulus and rampant FDR incursion into the economy, the
1930s ended with the unemployment rate at 15%, the CPI declining at a 2%
annual rate and the level of GDP still below its 1929 peak. Between 1997 and
2003, Japan's monetary base surged 85% — deflation pressures remained
intact. We just do not believe it is still appreciated that when the economy slips
into a deleveraging phase, which by its nature involves asset liquidation, debt
repayment and rising private sector savings rates, it takes years before the
economy makes the transition to the next up-cycle and only then with massive
amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Üks väheseid makroanalüütikuid, keda ma viitsin lugeda ja kellel on mida öelda.
Siin saab ennast mailinglisti panna -
Vital Imaxes (VTAL) suutis päeva ligi 9% plussis lõpetada, põhjuseks lepingu sõlmimine Chindexiga Vitali toodete müümiseks Hiina turul. Kui järgmiste kvartalitulemuste ajaks suudetaks juba ka mõni litsentsileping sõlmida, oleks see väga suur ja potentsiaalirohke samm edasi.
-
Et viimaste päevade langus mingisse perspektiivi panna, siis alloleval graafikul on toodud kõik enam kui 3% korrektsioonid põhjadest toimunud ralli jooksul.
Allikas: Bespoke Investment Group
