Börsipäev 6. juuli
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Nüüdseks on ameeriklastel 4. juuli iseseisvust tähistavad perekondlikud grillipeod peetud ja maailma parandamise mõtted vahetatud. Antud nädal tuleb makromajandus raportite poolest võrdlemisi vaene, mis annab aktsiaturgude liikumisele tulemuste eel vabamad käed. Tulemustega teeb otsa lahti Alcoa (AA) kolmapäeva järelturul.
Täna kell 17.00 tuleb juunikuu ISM teenindusindeks, millelt oodatakse 46 punktilist näitu, mis võrreldes maikuu 44 punktiga tähendaks väikest paranemist. Hetkel on USA suurimate indeksite futuurid ca 0.6% kuni 0.8% punases, nafta on kukkunud 2.2%, mis teeb barreli hinnaks $65.2. -
Valuutaturgudel pälvib tähelepanu neljapäeval algav G8 tippkohtumine Itaalias. Viimasel ajal on Venemaa ning Hiina seadnud küsimärgi alla dollari tuleviku globaalse reservaluutana, tehes ettepaneku luua selle asemel valuutakorv. USA eelarve paisuv defitsiit ning välislaenude maht, mida puudujäägi finantseerimiseks kasutatakse, on teinud murelikuks ka India, kus välisvaluutareservide diversifitseerimine eelmisel nädalal päevakorda jõudis. Hiina võtab tippkohtumisest osa reedel, plaaniga tõsta päevakavva uue globaalse reservvaluuta loomine, mis valmistaks dollarile survet. Teiste riikide liidrid ei pruugi ideele toetust anda, kindlustades dollari jalgealust.
EUR/USD kurss alates aasta algusest
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Tere. kas leedu Börs täna suletud?
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Eile kinnitasid hiinlased, et dollar jääb reservvaluutaks "for many years to come" (ega nad väga muud ei saa rääkida):
China doesn’t support the idea of creating a supranational reserve currency and expects the U.S. dollar to maintain its role for “many years to come,” Deputy Foreign Minister He Yafei told reporters in Rome yesterday. China doesn’t support the idea of creating a supranational reserve currency and expects the U.S. dollar to maintain its role for “many years to come,” Deputy Foreign Minister He Yafei told reporters in Rome yesterday.(allikas Bloomberg)
The Times raporteerib, et G. Brown hoiatab oma kõnes G8 liidreid (link siin):
The worst of the recession may be yet to come and world leaders are in danger of hampering the recovery, Gordon Brown will say today.
As he begins a week of meetings with world leaders, the Prime Minister will strike an unexpectedly gloomy note about the prospects of an upturn and will demand that fellow heads of government “sound a second-wake up call for the world economy”.
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Leedus täna omariikluse päev & börs kinni
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Briefing vahendab:
Dendreon: Merriman raises tgt range to $49-50 from $33-34
Merriman expects Dendreon's Provenge should be on the market by mid- 2010 following positive Ph. 3 data under an SPA from FDA. Firm believes that based on the highly favorable safety profile of Provenge significant market share could be garnered in treating prostate cancer based on the potential choice of choosing Provenge prior to other therapies such as toxic chemotherapy. They recommend that investors purchase the shares based on an anticipated partnership or an outright acquisition in the coming months (they assume prior to a Q409 sBLA filing) and expectation that the true market potential for Provenge is not being realized in the current valuation. Firm views Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), Bristol Myers (BMY) or GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) as likely partners or acquirers. Merriman reiterates Buy rating and raises tgt to $49-50 from $33-34.
Tegemist on konkurentsitult kõige kõrgema sihiga, ülejäänud hinnasihid jäävad suuuresti vahemikku $33-38.
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All red on the western front... Aasia turud ca -1% kuni -1.5% (eranditeks Hiina ja Lõuna-Korea plussidega ning India suure, üle 5%lise miinusega), Euroopa on -1.1% kuni -2.1% ning USA futuurid ca -1%.
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rse +5%
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Nafta on juba 4.7% miinuses, kaubeldes $63.58 tasemel.
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Uudiseid Euroopast: Suurbritannias langes uute autode registreerimine juulis (y-o-y baasil) 15.7%. YTD baasil on uute autode registreerimine langenud koguni 25.9%.
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#Eile kinnitasid hiinlased, et dollar jääb reservvaluutaks "for many years to come"#
Meenub esimene raamat, mida ma forexi kohta lugesin - umbes kolmandal leheküljel oli kirjas, et "Whatever any government says about any currency, one should bet against it." :-D -
Veider on vaadata, kuidas kõrged asjapulgad käivad sanga juures "Volume" kirjaga nuppu kruttimas, et keegi jumala pärast enneaegaselt maha ei istuks :P
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Hiinal nii suured reservid, et ega ta dollari põhja laskmist kindlasti ei taha ja aeg-ajalt on vaja midagi ilusat ka öelda. Päeva teises pooles oli natuke dollari müüki, kuna India on Hiinast julgem:
The Indian Foreign secretary says they are open to discussing replacement of USD as global reserve currency.
Venemaa:
"The dollar system or the system based on the dollar and euro have shown that they are flawed. But I am a realist and I understand that today there is no alternative to the dollar or the European currency," Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in an interview with Italian media (link).
Prantsusmaa:
"We should explore a better coordination of foreign exchange policies which would raise the question over the medium term of the balance of exchange rates and the role of currencies that have changed both as a result of the crisis and the role played by emerging market countries," France's Economy Minister Christine Lagarde told reporters at a conference (link).
Viimastel nädalatel on tehtud dollari kui reservvaluuta poolt ja vastu argumente igast ilmakaarest ja see arutelu ise on juba dollarile kahjulik. Samas on EUR/USD 1.3901 juures ja ilmselt võib dollar veel natuke kallineda (karud teevad rünnakut ja rahavood võivad mõnda aega liikuda dollari kasuks).
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Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -1.24%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.20%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.15%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.82%
Venemaa MICEX -3.87%
Poola WIG -1.04%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.38%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.23%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.18%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.72%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.72%
Tai Set 50 N/A (börs suletud)
India Sensex 30 -5.83% -
Redrawing the Map
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/6/2009 8:28 AM EDT
Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.
-- Philip K. Dick
After a three-day break, market players aren't feeling any great anxiety to buy this morning. Early indications are for a continuation of Friday's ugly action. Although volume was light on Friday, breadth was extremely poor and it was a bit surprising that action prior to a holiday was so weak.
We're now doing some severe technical damage to the indices for the first time since the bounce started back in March. We had brief pauses along the way to the highs in June, but we never really did any damage to the uptrend line. This pullback has now breached the 50-day simple moving average and is in danger of taking out the 200-day simple moving average. In addition, we have a head-and-shoulders top that even the non-technicians can easily see in the charts.
The big technical picture obviously warrants some major caution at this point. We haven't completely broken the trend off the March low, but we seem to be in the process of doing so, and there's little reason to believe the damage will be quickly repaired. We went up very far, very fast, and moves like that need to be digested, especially when the economic concerns are still so dire.
Wall Street was a bit more optimistic than Main Street, and now expectations are being adjusted. Vice President Biden admitted this weekend that there was a misreading of just how bad the economy was, and that it was overly optimistic to assume unemployment would top out at 8%. The employment numbers on Friday made it clear that the $787 billion stimulus package isn't helping as it was supposed to.
Chances are growing that the Obama administration will attempt to sell another stimulus package, but with concerns growing about the huge increase in the deficit that we already have and its potential inflationary pressures, Wall Street may be skittish about the idea of even more spending.
I've recently written a little about the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street, and after visiting this weekend with relatives from Michigan, Florida and Virginia, I heard little that makes me believe we have any substantial economic improvement coming in the near term. Wall Street has been pricing in some better times, but the anecdotal evidence I've been encountering is not very optimistic.
It looks like the process of closing the gap between Wall Street and Main Street is under way. My main hope is that Main Street helps out by becoming more positive and that it isn't just Wall Street that corrects. There isn't much we can do about Main Street, so we'll worry about Wall Street ... and it's looking pretty shaky right now.
Buckle on the trading helmet and tighten up your seat belt. It's going to be a bumpy ride.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
M&A news: DDUP +3.0% (EMC increases its all-cash offer to acquire Data Domain to $33.50 per share)... Other news: ATSI +13.8% (announces FDA clearance and first implant of new ATS simulus semi-rigid annuloplasty band), GERN +6.0% (Geron and collaborators publish data showing functional dendritic cells can be derived from human embryonic stem cells using scalable production methods), TASR +5.3% (light volume, received an order for the U.S. Military Academy at West Point to issue TASER X26 ECDs and related accessories to its base security and law enforcement), LPL +4.8% (early strength following Samsung guidance), TCK +2.5% (announces C$1.74 bln private placement), FL +1.9% (mentioned positively in Barron's)... Analyst comments: SYMC +3.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Securities), DNDN +2.2% (Merriman raises tgt range to $49-50 from $33-34), LFC +2.1% (upgraded to Overweight at Credit Suisse), WDC +1.9% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LDK -7.8%... Select financial related names showing weakness: ING -6.6%, AIB -5.3%, UBS -3.4%, BAC -2.2% (to pay $713 mln in TARP Preferred Dividends), MS -1.5%, JPM -1.3%... Select oil/gas names trading lower: SSL -6.8%, REP -5.6% (light volume, trading ex dividend), BP -3.8%, NOV -3.5%, PBR -3.4% (trading ex dividend), HES -3.2%, SLB -2.9%, COP -2.3%, OXY -2.1%, CVX -1.6%, XOM -1.4%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: HMY -6.3%, AAUK -6.2%, MT -6.1%, GFI -5.6%, GOLD -5.6%, AU -5.5%, BHP -5.0%, KGC -3.6% (cut to Sector Perform from Underperform at Scotia ), AUY -2.6%, ABX -2.3%... Select Indian related names ticking lower after the Sensex plunged 5.8% following expansionary budget announcement: MTE -6.3% IBN -6.2% IFN -6.1% SAY -5.1% INP -1.7%... Other news: SPPI -16.2% (receives complete response letter from FDA for Zevalin), MTXX -3.5% (discloses that it expects additional lawsuits), VOD -2.7% (Vodafone exec says mobile mkt rev in Europe is under pressure - DJ)... Analyst comments: RAX -3.4% (cut to Neutral from Buy at Goldman- Reuters), SMG -2.8% (downgraded to Neutral at SunTrust), EV -2.6% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), RDS.B -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral at HSBC). -
Aktsiad langevad, VIX +9%, dollar tugevneb ja toorained kukuvad. Meeleolud on igal juhul muutunud ning ka alanud suvi ei räägi turu kasuks. Ometi on veel vara öelda, kas tegemist on mitmekuulise langustrendi algusega või lihtsalt konsolideerumisega, mis sillutab teed järgmisele tõusule.
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S&P tegi ilusa H&S mustri. 870ni võidakse minna ilma takistusteta.
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The Street on teinud loo vähe poolehoidu leidnud ETF'idest:
Think that most ETF names are painfully descriptive? Here's one that will keep you on your toes. PNXQ tracks the Nasdaq Q-50 Index that is designed to track the performance of the 50 securities that are "next in line" to replace the securities currently included in the Nasdaq 100.
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June ISM Services 47.0 vs 46.0 consensus, prior 44.0
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Mis toimub Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) aktsiaga ??? Uskumatu!
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enterprime, ühtegi ettevõtte-spetsiifilist uudist ei ole. Seega kukutakse lihtsalt koos nafta ja maagaasi hindadega kõrvuti koos teiste energia sektori aktsiatega.
