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Börsipäev 16. juuli

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  • Täna erilisi makrouudiseid peale eelmise nädala esmaste töötu abiraha taotluste numbri kell 15.30 tulemas ei ole - ootuseks on 552 000 vs möödunud korra 565 000.

    Palju põnevam on aga olukord tulemuste poole pealt - enne turgu teatavad oma numbrid Harley-Davidson (HOG), millest Sten kirjutas eile siin, JP Morgan (JPM) ja Nokia (NOK). Pärast turgu tulevad veel Google (GOOG) ja IBM (IBM). Samuti saab tähelepanu täna kindlasti CIT, millest Alari kirjutas ka eilses börsipäevas, võimetus valitsuselt pankroti vältimiseks vastuvõetavatel tingimustel erakorralist finantseerimist saada.

  • Heido Vitsur on Eesti Päevalehes maha saanud väga korraliku ja mõtlemapaneva kirjatükiga Eesti majanduse kriisijärgsetele võimalustele, ohtudele ja väljakutsetele. Seda tasub lugeda - link siin. 

    Väike väljavõte artiklist:


    "Kon­ku­ree­ri­maks teis­te maa­de­ga tu­leks meil ka­su­tu­se­le võtta sel­li­sed va­hen­did na­gu tu­lu­mak­su­soo­dus­tu­sed alus­ta­va­te­le eks­por­ti­ja­te­le, mak­suk­re­dii­did, ilm­selt ka sot­siaal­mak­su­soo­dus­tu­sed kõr­ge kva­li­fi­kat­sioo­ni­ga aju­tis­te­le vä­liss­pet­sia­lis­ti­de­le, võib-ol­la ka ko­gu tead­mus­ma­hu­ka­le ma­jan­dus­sek­to­ri­le.
    Tei­seks tu­leks paind­li­ku­maks muu­ta rii­gi osa­le­mi­ne et­tevõtte inf­rast­ruk­tuu­ri et­te­val­mis­ta­mi­sel, aren­dus­te­ge­vu­ses, koo­li­tu­se ja tea­dustöö kor­ral­da­mi­sel jne. Prob­leem on sel­les, et me ei suu­da kõike ni­me­ta­tut mõju­salt üle ko­gu ma­jan­du­se et­te võtta ja peak­si­me se­da te­ge­ma min­gi so­bi­va põhimõtte jär­gi va­li­ku­li­selt."

  • Oli jah hea artikkel. Eks kui riigikogu ja valitsus puhkuselt naasevad, viskavad kah ehk vanadele uudistele pilgu peale ja loevad, et mis see mees seal pobises.
  • Endine USA valitsuse nõunik Verleger ütleb, et naftat hakkab varsti põhimõtteliselt tasuta saama - prognoosib $20list hinda. Link artiklile siin. 

  • Nokia EPS €0.10 vs oodatud €0.10. Tulud €9.9 miljardit vs oodatud €10.1 miljardit.

    CEO kommenteerib tulemusi ise nii, et nõudlus tundub tegevat põhjasid, kuid konkurents tööstusharus on väga tugev.
  • Aktsia 4.7% miinuses tasemel 10,6 eurot (enne tulemusi kauples 11 eurol). Turule esialgu kerge pettumus.
  • Seoses tugeva konkurentsiga on Nokia langetamas ka oma turuosa prognoose oodates 2009. aastaks sama suurt turuosa nagu 2008. aastal.
  • JP Morgan Chase Q2 EPS $0.28, includes items vs $0.04 First Call consensus; revs $27.71 bln vs $25.89 bln First Call consensus.
  • Biogen (BIIB) reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.75 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.07 better than the First Call consensus of $0.68; revenues rose 10.0% year/year to $1.09 bln vs the $1.07 bln consensus. BIIB Q2 Drug Sales: Avonex $591 mln vs. $570.2 mln First Call Consensus; Rituxan $276 mln vs. $289.1 mln First Call Consensus; Tysabri $188 mln vs. $188 mln First Call Consensus.
  • Tulemuste tabel on hommikuste numbritega uuendatud - link siin. 

  • Väetisetootjad kauplevad eelturul kõrgemal pärast seda, kui Bloomberg vahendas kuulujuttu, mille kohaselt on Brasiilia kaevandusfirma Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (VALE) ettevalmistamas $25 mlrd suurust ülevõtupakkumist Mosaic'ile (MOS).
  • Vaatan, et Hullu Kalevi teema on ikka kõige kommenteeritum. Algul veitsa lugesin ja siis tundus, et Kristjan Lepiku kirjutised olid kõige mõistetavamad. Nüüd pole üle 3400 kommi lugenud.
    Keegi võiks eraldi vahekokkuvõtte avaldada.
  • Hullu kalevi vahekokkuvõte: Majandusteemadelt on üle mindud igiliikuri teemale ja sealt gaaside füüsika teemale.
  • USA Truck Inc. (USAK) reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.11 per share, $0.07 worse than the First Call consensus of ($0.04); revenues fell 36.8% year/year to $92.4 mln vs the $99.6 mln consensus. Co said, "Freight conditions have steadily deteriorated since the current freight depression began in the second half of 2006. Freight availability remains at historically low levels and pricing competition has been fierce as excess tractor capacity, buoyed by lenient lenders and lower fuel prices, continues to exist in the marketplace."
  • PPG Industries (PPG) reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.91 per share, $0.16 better than the First Call consensus of $0.75; revenues fell 30.4% year/year to $3.12 bln vs the $3.3 bln consensus. "Clearly, we are continuing to experience very challenging conditions in many of our end-use markets. However, we are encouraged as our total sales during the quarter remained fairly consistent month to month, and were also steady within each major region. This gives us a degree of confidence that most markets have stabilized, albeit at considerably lower levels than prior years."
  • Hoolimata sellest, et USA aktsiaturgude futuurid püsivad eilsete sulgumistasemete juures, on Nokia aktsia Helsingi börsil tehtud 10% võrra väiksemaks:

  • Initial Claims 522K vs 553K consensus, prior revised to 569K from 565K; Continuing Claims falls to 6.27 mln from 6.91 mln.

    Need numbrid saatsid turu koheselt poole protsendi jagu eilsest sulgumisest veelgi kõrgemale.
  • Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX +0.94%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.34%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.50%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.27%
    Venemaa MICEX +0.76%
    Poola WIG +0.42%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.81%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.57%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.15%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.34%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.90%
    Tai Set 50 -0.95%
    India Sensex 30 -0.02%

  • Reversal of Fortune
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/16/2009 8:26 AM EDT

    Nothing is more dangerous to men than a sudden change of fortune.
    -- Marcus Fabius Quintilian

    A very well-defined and -recognized technical pattern known as a head-and-shoulders top turned into a massive bear trap that was sprung by a much-better-than-anticipated earnings report from Intel (INTC) . The market leapt forward on the Intel news and only dipped briefly for a couple minutes right before the final bell.

    Particularly noteworthy about the action is that it wasn't just semiconductors or technology that ran higher on the Intel news -- it was the whole market. From Coke (KO) to American Express (AXP) to Exxon Mobil (XOM) , every major sector was sharply higher. Breadth was very strong and volume very heavy.

    Action that strong deserves respect, and even though the market was looking like it was ready to fall into the hole just a week ago, we can't easily dismiss such strong action. There are a lot of good fundamental arguments against this market moving higher, but the technical and price action has to be given some respect.

    What makes things even more difficult is that we probably have the most important group of earnings report for the quarter being released after the close tonight. This evening we have reports from Google (GOOG) and IBM (IBM) , and then in the morning we have GE (GE) and Citigroup (C) .

    The Intel report and subsequent market response changes expectations, much like the Meredith Whitney upgrade of Goldman Sachs (GS) on Monday changed expectations for that stock. If Intel is good, then IBM and Google should be pretty good as well, but after the big bump up on Wednesday, how good do they have to be in order to keep moving upward?

    Although I was offline for several hours yesterday due to a power outage, I was surprised at what seemed to me to be a relatively sedate reaction to the huge move. Usually you'd see the folks on CNBC tripping over themselves with glee and plenty of perma-bulls thumping themselves in self-congratulations. I suspect that the cool celebration was due to the fact that so many folks were caught by surprise. That is probably confirmed by the way the market didn't dip for more than a few minutes all day. Folks were scrambling to gain some long exposure, and they were so impatient they wouldn't even wait for a pullback.

    So now what? First, as noted, we have to give the very positive technical action some respect. It would be foolish to anticipate a quick reversal given so much strength. On the other hand, with big earnings reports coming tonight and expectations increased so much, it is going to be difficult to keep this pace going. It'll be much easier to disappoint this market now with a report that isn't as upbeat as Intel's or Goldman's.

    My game plan is to see if I can catch a little more upside momentum in some individual stocks but to watch for an opportunity for a quick index short. I do not like to place bets on earnings reports, so that means I'm not going to be holding much overnight. I'll reassess after we have the news tomorrow morning, but it is going to be tricky navigating through news reports in an environment where expectations change so dramatically and so quickly.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CVBF +9.9%, UFPI +8.2% (light volume), BIIB +5.0%, PLCM +3.9% (also upgraded to Buy at Brean Murray; tgt $29), NVS +2.6%... M&A news: MOS +10.0% (seeing early strength with Bloomberg citing Estado reports that VALE considers $25 bln bid for MOS)... Select ag/chem names showing strength following MOS bid reports: IPI +4.2%, POT +2.6%, CF +1.5%, MON +1.5%, TRA +1.1%... Select financials ticking higher: ING +5.1%, HBC +1.7%, AXA +1.2%... Other news: BFRM +15.2% (announces FDA approval for mixing lidocaine with Radiesse dermal filler), BUCY +6.1% (On CNBC yesterday Dennis Gartman said he thought he'd be a buyer of BUCY Thursday morning), SNDK +4.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney; ests raised at Lazard Capital Mkts on strong 2Q finish), JOYG +2.7% (up in sympathy with BUCY), ELN +2.6% (up in sympathy with BIIB), SNY +1.9% (Sanofi-Aventis gets French govt order to make A/H1N1 vaccine - DJ)... Analyst comments: JRCC +6.3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), PCX +4.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), STLD +1.7% (hearing added to Buy List at tier 1 firm).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: JOEZ -13.6% (light volume), NOK -11.9%, MTG -11.2%, RECN -8.1%, XLNX -6.5%, MAR -6.1%, APH -5.7%, HOG -4.8%, CTAS -4.6%, LSTR -3.4% (also raises quarterly dividend 13% to $0.045 per share), FCS -3.3%, NXY -2.8% (light volume), KMP -1.4%, JPM -0.9%... M&A news: VALE -1.4% (ticking lower following reports that the co considers bid for MOS)... Other news: TRGT -9.9% (modestly pulling back after yesterday's 80%+ surge higher), SLT -8.0% (prices 123,456,790 ADSs at $12.15/ADS), SENEA -6.5% (prices approx 3.27 mln common share offering at $22.00/share), RFMD -5.1% (still checking), AIXG -4.7% (still checking), CELL -3.8% (prices 15.0 mln common shares by NC Telecom Holding at $5.00/share), AIG -1.9% (American Intl AIG to accelerate separation of ALICO; co seek an initial public offering and public listing)... Analyst comments: MOT -4.7% (cut to Neutral from Buy at Goldman- Reuters), MEDX -4.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS).
  • Ken Wolff arvab Realmoney's, et sümpaatiast tõusnud Mosaic'i konkurent Potash Corp (POT) võiks olla siit short:

    MOS is up on a buyout rumor... POT is up in sympathy and should be an early short...
  • CIT kaupleb juba 76% madalamal, rõhudes kogu finantssektorit.
  • California laenuprobleemidega on üldsus juba kursis. Täna kirjutab Bloomberg, et Illinois osariiki võib ähvarada krediidireitingu langetamine Moody'se poolt.
  • Roubini kommentaaride peale turg tuule tiibadesse saanud:
    NYU Professor Roubini says deflation biggest short-term risk, inflation to become issue in medium-term unless policy adjusted; U.S. may need another fiscal stimulus by the end of the year
    Professor Roubini says "worst is behind us in terms of economic, financial conditions"
  • CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CP ( CHK ) kenasti tõuseb juba teist päeva järjest. Oskab keegi kommenteerida?
  • Maagaas teeb täna väga võimast tõusu... ning kui turg ka veel ülespoole liigub, siis sinnapoole läheb ka CHK.
  • Kas CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CP ( CHK ) on ikka PRO analüüside all?
  • Milline on ( CHK ) hinnasiht 1 aasta perspektiivis?
  • enterprime, tegu on jah Pro ideega. Lähemalt tulekski ettevõtte kohta lugeda just sealt, kus on ära toodud nii investeerimisteesi alustalad, hinnasiht, võimalikud riskid ja palju muud põnevat. Nii palju võin vaid öelda, et paari aasta perspektiivis näen võimalust ka aktsia kahekordistumiseks.
  • Google prelim $5.36 vs $5.09 First Call consensus; revs $4.07 bln vs $4.06 bln First Call consensus
  • IBM prelim $2.32 vs $2.02 First Call consensus; revs $23.3 bln vs $23.59 bln First Call consensus
    IBM Raises full-year 2009 EPS expectations to at least $9.70 from $9.20
    IBM says it's ahead of pace for 2010 roadmap of $10 to $11 per share

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