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Börsipäeva 22. juuli

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  • Täna enne USA turgude avanemist tulemas olulisi tulemusi finantssektoris (Morgan Stanley & Wells Fargo). Hetkel futuurid miinuses.

    Morgan Stanley strateegid pakuvad ülejäänud analüüsimajade lugemisele vaheldust & investoritele antakse soovitus: “sell into” the global rally in equities.

     

  • Harvardi majandusprofessor Martin Feldstein, kes nägi hästi ette kriisi USA kinnisvaraturul & majanduslangust, hoiatab investoreid (vt videot Bloombergis):

    “There is a real danger this is going to be a double dip and that after six months or so we’ll have some more bad news. We could slide down again in the fourth quarter.”

     

  • Bank of NY (BK) reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.46 per share, excluding TARP, $0.07 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.53; revenues fell 17.7% year/year to $3.21 bln vs the $3.28 bln consensus. The provision for credit losses was $61 mln in the second quarter of 2009 compared with $13 mln in the second quarter of 2008 and $59 mln in the first quarter of 2009. During the second quarter of 2009, the total allowance for credit losses decreased $33 mln as net charge-offs totaled $54 mln and $40 mln of the allowance for credit losses was transferred to discontinued operations.
  • KeyCorp (KEY) reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.69 per share, may not compare to the First Call consensus of ($0.41). The loss for the current quarter is largely the result of an increase in the provision for loan losses. During the second quarter, Key continued to build its loan loss reserves by taking an $850 million provision for loan losses, which exceeded net charge-offs by $311 million. As of the end of the quarter, Key's allowance for loan losses was $2.5 billion, or 3.53% of total loans, up from $1.4 billion, or 1.87% one year ago. The loss for the year-ago quarter was largely attributable to a $1.011 billion after-tax charge recorded as a result of an adverse federal tax court ruling that impacted Key's accounting for certain lease financing transactions. Key's provision for loan losses was $850 million for the second quarter of 2009, compared to $647 million for the year-ago quarter and $875 million for the first quarter of 2009. Credit migration, particularly in the commercial real estate portfolio, continues to result in higher levels of net charge-offs and nonperforming loans, and more reserve building. Key's provision for loan losses for the second quarter of 2009 exceeded net loan charge-offs by $311 million. As a result, Key's allowance for loan losses rose to $2.5 billion, or 3.53% of total loans at June 30 2009, up from $2.2 billion, or 2.97% at March 31, 2009.
  • Eelturul KEY vastavalt -5.6% ja BK -2.71% languses.
  • Boeing (BA) prelim $1.41 vs $1.21 First Call consensus; revs $17.15 bln vs $17.15 bln First Call consensus
    Boeing reaffirms FY09 $4.70-5.00 vs $4.52 First Call consensus
    Boeing sees FY09 revs $68-69 bln vs $67.83 bln First Call consensus
  • US Bancorp (USB) reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.12 per share, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.10; revenues rose 7.1% year/year to $4.16 bln vs the $4.03 bln consensus. Significant items impacting the second quarter of 2009 results included an FDIC special assessment equal to $0.05 per diluted common share and the accelerated amortization of the discount associated with the TARP preferred stock ("deemed dividend") redeemed on June 17, 2009, equal to $0.08 per diluted common share. In addition, the Company recorded a provision for credit losses in excess of net charge-offs equal to $0.20 per diluted common share. Return on average assets and return on average common equity were 0.71% and 4.2%, respectively, for the second quarter of 2009, compared with 1.58% and 17.9%, respectively, for the second quarter of 2008. "Our capital position remains strong with a Tier 1 capital ratio of 9.4% at June 30, 2009, above the 6.0% well-capitalized ratio as defined by the regulators. In addition, the issuance of new common equity strengthened the Tier 1 common equity ratio from 5.4% at March 31, 2009, to 6.7% at June 30, 2009. Our capital position is solid and it provides a strong base of support at this point in the cycle for our on-going operations, including lending activity and growth initiatives... Credit costs, as expected, continued to have a negative impact on earnings in the second quarter, but the rate of growth on a linked quarter basis in both dollars of net charge-offs and nonperforming assets moderated. For the sixth consecutive quarter, we added to the reserve for credit losses. Specifically, incremental provision expense was approximately 50 percent of net charge-offs in the second quarter versus approximately 67 percent of net charge-offs in the first quarter of 2009. The additional provision expense led to a rise in the allowance for credit losses as a percent of period end loans to 2.51 percent at June 30, 2009, from 2.23 percent at March 31, 2009. We expect to continue to build reserves until we see consistent evidence of a leveling-off or decline in net charge-offs. As the results of the stress test indicated, we have the capital and earnings power to cover future losses, even under more adverse economic conditions."
  • Erinevalt konkurentidest ei suuda Morgan Stanley (MS) kasum turu ootustele vastata. Aktsia eelturul -5%.

    Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $1.37 per share, $0.88 worse than the First Call consensus of ($0.49); revenues fell 11.3% year/year to $5.41 bln vs the $5.35 bln consensus.
  • Vist kõik siiamaani raporteerinud regionaalpangad on pigem pettumuse valmistanud, kusjuures mitte jooksvates numbrites (kvartali EPSi on suudetud täitsa OK näidata), vaid just bilansi poole pealt.
    WFC, KEY, ZION, RF, CMA jne.

    Kas veab välja praeguste bilansidega või tuleb veel üks ring dilutionit?
  • Recipe for Chaos
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/22/2009 8:49 AM EDT


    "It is best to love wisely, no doubt, but to love foolishly is better than not to be able to love at all."

    -- William M. Thackeray.
    Not surprisingly, Apple (AAPL) posted a very strong quarter last night, and it was even good enough to send the stock up another $7, although it had already made a very big move prior to the earnings report.

    Apple is a stock many in the market love to love because not only does the company have such a loyal following for its products but it also does such a great job of managing its earnings. Every quarter, Apple plays the same game. Management reduces guidance for the next quarter, and that sets the stage for dramatically exceeding estimates when the company reports. It isn't any secret. Everyone knows what the company is doing, but, nonetheless, it keeps a continuously positive buzz.

    This morning analysts are raising price targets for Apple to as much as $225 after the company handily beat estimates.

    With the strong Apple report now in the books, the question of the day is whether the Nasdaq can move higher for the eleventh straight day. When a market has that sort of streak, there isn't much you can do but appreciate the momentum and fight the inclination to be overly aggressive with a contrarian trade.

    Reports are hitting now from Morgan Stanley (MS) and Wells Fargo (WFC) and are looking troublesome. Both are trading down fairly sharply on the news. Banks were showing some relative weakness the last few days, but market players were focused on the promise of Apple and weren't paying much attention.

    This market continues to produce a major dilemma now. I've been saying that for several days, but the situation has not changed. We have gone straight up with barely a pause and have produced a slew of overbought and overextended charts, but momentum has showed few signs of slowing and the underlying support has been extremely strong. Finding new buys is very difficult, but shorting into the strength has not been a profitable move.

    Maybe now with Apple out of the way and some poor action in banks, we will cool off a little, but so many folks were caught by surprised when the market took off last week following Intel's (INTC) report that we are likely to have a good supply of dip buyers out there. They should keep the downside contained even if we do finally start to consolidate the recent move.

    It is impossible not to be at least a little more cautious when a market has moved as much and as quickly as this one has over the past week. That doesn't mean you have to be wildly bearish, but it just isn't prudent to keep chasing stocks that have made parabolic moves.

    My stance right now is neutral. I'd be happy to buy things that are set up, but the vast majority of charts I see need some rest. On the other hand, there is enough underlying support and buying interest that we can't expect the market to simply fall apart and go straight down.

    We have battle lines drawn today, with the love affair over Apple and technology on one side and some concerns over the banking sector on the other. Throw in an extended market and plenty of performance anxiety, and we have the recipe for some chaotic action.
    --------------------------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MEG +27.7%, OFG +19.8%, ATHR +10.3%, CHIC +9.5% (also upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), SBUX +9.1% (also upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank and upgraded to Buy at Argus), AAI +8.7%, PTV +6.1%, FULT +5.9%, LLTC +4.6%, ILMN +4.6%, WINN +4.4%, NITE +4.0%, CKSW +3.9% (light volume), VFC +3.5%, AAPL +3.4%, CHRW +3.0%, SXL +2.9% (light volume), STX +2.8% (also upgraded to Hold at Collins Stewart), WIT +2.4% (light volume), BA +2.3%, LLY +1.3%... Other news: ONXX +26.9% (Nexavar in combination with chemotherapy shown to extend progression-free survival in patients with advanced breast cancer), SPAR +11.9% (still checking), BDSI +8.7% (receives $27 mln milestone payment from Meda AB), SCMP +8.5% (Sucampo Pharma and Takeda report top-line results of two Phase 3 trials of lubiprostone in opioid-induced bowel dysfunction), WYNN +4.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), HGSI +4.0% (announces new order for Raxibacumab from U.S. government), HEB +3.6% (left the polls open with regard to voting on proposal 3, an amendment of its certificate of incorporation to increase the number of authorized shares), NVAX +1.9% (Announces Selection of a Respiratory Syncytial Announces Selection of a Respiratory Syncytial), PDA +1.3% (still checking)... Analyst comments: HNT +3.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman- Reuters), MHS +1.8% (initiated with Buy at Lazard), KFT +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), SLT +1.0% (ticking higher, hearing upgraded at tier 1 firm).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PPDI -16.2% (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird), AMD -13.5%, KEY -8.7%, AAN -8.6% (also downgraded to Neutral at Cowen and downgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James), SLM -7.5%, SUPX -7.1%, STI -6.8%, USG -5.9%, AMLN -5.8%, MS -5.6%, WFC -5.3%, STJ -4.0%, YHOO -3.9%, BK -3.8%, GILD -3.2%, USB -2.5%, SU -2.2%... Select financial names showing weakness: AXA -3.4%, BCS -3.2%, PRU -3.0%, LYG -2.5%, UBS -2.2%, BAC -2.1%, COF -1.9%, HBC -1.4%, DB -1.3%, JPM -1.3%... Select oil/gas related names ticking lower: BTU -3.1% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), E -1.8%, COP -1.4%, PBR -1.4%, CVX -1.1%, BP -1.1%, OXY -1.0%, TOT -1.0%... Select metals/mining stocks showing weakness: BBL -2.1%, BHP -1.8% (BHP Billiton misses iron ore guidance; coal, oil strong - DJ), AAUK -1.3%, MT -1.0%... Other news: CIT -35.0% (announced that Moody's Investors Service has placed its CIT Equipment Collateral 2009-VT1 Receivable-Backed Notes under review for possible downgrade), EDR -10.9% (announces a 21 mln share common stock offering), SAY -5.0% (still checking), BPSG -4.7% (announced the commencement of a 20 mln share common stock offering, 12 mln shares being offered by the co and 8 mln share being offered by selling shareholders), CVBF -4.2% (priced a 19.7 mln common stock offering at $5.85/share), GE -1.9% (GE Capital receives approval for TLGP exit plan), NOK -1.9% (still checking)... Analyst comments: SPWRA -2.9% (downgraded to Hold at Ardour Capital), FCX -1.7% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup).
  • Leedu ühispank müüs täna OEG, TAL ja TKM suured pakid Eesti ühispangale. Huvitav, mis fond seal taga võib olla?
  • Ma arvan, et see on SEB miski grupisisene töökorralduse muutmine. Küllap saab sellest varsti lehest ka lugeda.
  • Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX -0.4%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.8%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.4%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.6%
    Venemaa MICEX -2.6%
    Poola WIG -1.5%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.7%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.3%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.6%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +2.3%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq  +0.4%
    Tai Set 50 -2.2%
    India Sensex 30 -1.5%

  • Morgan Stanley strateegide eilset soovitust "sell into" the rally tasub veel täpsustada: 

    Edaspidise ralli käigus peaks aktsiaid müüama, kuna konsensuse ROE ootused on liiga kõrged – konsensuse 2010. a S&P500 EPS’i ootus $72 dollarit tähendab, et ROE jõuab põhjast tippu (tipu ex-Financial ROE = 18%) kõigest viie kvartaliga (vs 11 kvartalit 1992. a ja 20 kvartalit 2001. a).

    Senised S&P500 ettevõtete 2Q09 tulemused kinnitavad, et siiani on tulemused olnud paremad eelkõige kasumite osas (ex-Financial +13.8% oodatust parem) ja müügitulud on olnud 1.9% oodatust kehvemad. Pikaajaliselt tõstab kulude kokkuhoidmise asemel kasumeid nõudluse kasv & hetkel näib konsensus seda juba ootavat – ainult kulude kokkuhoidmisega ei tõsta S&P500 2009. aasta EPS’i $55 dollari pealt 2010. aastaks $72 dollarile.

  • Ja uued tipud ka S&P 500 poolt, mis hetkel indikeerib olematut hirmu ja ülikiire majaduse taastumise tempo ootust.
  • ISuppli says 2009 wireless semiconductor rev set to fall 27% from 2008-DJ
  • Täna tahtsin kirjutada, et ISRG on $198 juures short.. aga kahjuks või õnneks ma ei suutnud seda kuidagi põhjendada :) Ainukeseks argumendiks jäi deferred revenue osa selle kvartali numbrites, aga ka see on analüütikutel sisse arvestatud juba. Ja see, et deferred revenue järgselt numbrid vaid natukene üle on.. no see pole ju tähtis, natuke üle tähendab 17% plussi!

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