Börsipäev 28. juuli
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Täna raporteerivad tulemustest US Steel, Viacom, Dreamworks ja STMicro. Makrouudistest avaldatakse Case-Shiller ja tarbijausaldusindeksid. Eile toetas USA turge positiivne makro (uute kodude müük kasvas juunis 11% M/M), kuid globaalsete aktsiaturgude kahenädalase tõusu peamine katalüsaator on olnud ettevõtete 2Q09 tulemused (ootusi on ületatud kasumitega, kuid mitte müügituludega):
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Citigroup langetab majadeehitaja Lennar’i (LEN) reitingu pärast hinnasihi täitmist „Hoia“ tasemele. Analüüsimaja andis Lennar’ile ostusoovituse 15. mail ja tänaseks on aktsia tõusnud ligi 35% võrra, täites $12-lise hinnasihi. Samuti soovitab Citi majadeehitajate tööstusharus tervikuna investoritel pigem positsioone sulgeda ja oodata taas paremat sisenemiskohta:
Thoughts on the Homebuilder Rally — We recommend that investors who are long the space start to feather out of their positions. Since touching its local min on 7/8/09, the homebuilding index has risen ~38%. Our coverage universe now stands at ~1.3x current TBV. Although we are unable to identify a nearterm catalyst which will derail the rally, we note that fundamentals still matter and remain challenging. There are still too many homes in the U.S housing stock and foreclosures are increasing. Despite the stabilization in new home sales, we think robust profitability will remain elusive for most homebuilders until they can acquire land in desirable locations at favorable economic terms. Although there are nascent signs that the land market is opening up, that process has yet to start playing out to any material extent.
Citi ettevaatlikud kommentaarid tulevad pärast eile avaldatud juuni uute majade müüginumbrit, mis näitas võrreldes maiga 11%-list suurenemist. See näitaja ületas konsensuse ootust ning Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Total Stock Market Index kerkis esmaspäeval 4.5% võrra.
Samas tekib taas küsimus, kas antud numbrit ei interpreteerita kohati liiga positiivselt. Näiteks Jim Cramer kirjutas eile Realmoney’s: „You do not get an 11% increase in new home purchases, the biggest in eight years, if things are about to get worse.“ Samal ajal jätab Cramer mainimata, et aasta baasil võrrelduna langes uute majade müük 21.3% võrra. Samuti on järjest lihtsam näidata rekordilisi kasvunumbreid protsentuaalselt mõõdetuna, sest majade müügi absoluutnumber ehk võrdlusbaas on lihtsalt langenud niivõrd madalale.
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Siiski üks positiivne külg, mida siiani lahti oleva XHB puhul kirjutasime, on võimalik varude kiire langus (mõõdetuna kuudes). Ajalukku vaadates on üsna tavaline, et kui varud kuudes langema hakkavad, tehakse seda kiiresti. Allolev graafik ka seda illustreerib:
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huvitav, miks mu arvuti näitab kõiki neid graafikuid siin, aga ei näita sommi ja stefani graafikuid kohe üldse? ignoreerib?
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CharlieF,
sommi ja stefani graafikud ei asu LHV serveris ning kuna LHV veeb on https (krüpteeritud ühendus) ning sommi ja stefani graafikud on krüpteerimata ühenduste taga, siis küsib veebilehitseja neid graafikuid sisaldavaid lehti näidates umbes midagi sarnast: "Do you want to view only the webpage content that was delivered securely?" .. Kui sellele vastata "yes" (mis on üldiselt soovituslik vastus), siis neid "ebaturvalisi" graafikuid ei näidata.
Probleem võib muidugi ka milleski muus olla, kuid see https teema on kõige tõenäolisem. -
Kas somm ja stefan ei viitsi või ei saa oma pilte LHV serverisse paigutada?
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kas võib selles ka asi olla, et google konto puudub? (graafikud istuvad spreadsheets.google.com)
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Notable Calls toob välja analüütikute positiivsed kommentaarid Harley-Davidsoni (HOG) suhtes pärast ettevõtte juhtkonnaga kohtumist:
Baird kinnitab “outperform” soovitust ja tõstab hinnasihi $28 dollarile (varasem $21):
The presentation lacked tangible goals or meaningful metrics, leaving investors to overweight intangible clues – which were bullish. Firm notes they like that management is addressing structural cost, cutting dealer inventory, boosting residual values, refining the dealer network, exploring options for HDFS, and offering investors a more credible outlook.
Deusche Bank säilitab ostusoovituse ja tõstab hinnasihi $21 dollarilt $26’le:
Management conveyed a number of data points which suggest that the company's recent market share gains could be more durable than we perceived (HOG appears to have made significant progress in improving its brand's positioning with young adults). The firm was also pleased to hear management reiterate their commitment to supporting prices and residuals, by aggressively curtailing production.
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Iseenesest on Deutsche hinnasihi tõstmine siin üsna ootuspärane - nad olid õigeaegselt väljas "Buy" reitinguga ning aktsia oli täitnud nende eelmise $21-lise sihi. Samuti ei ole DB tänases kommentaaris märkimisväärselt uut infot. Tundub, et Notable Calls teeb siinkohal pigem momentum/chart call'i. Samas kui $22 tase peab, siis vägagi võimalik, et shordid viiakse siit uuele sõidule.
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Doug Kass, kes soovitas märtsis aktsiaid soetada, soovitab pärast praegust rallit ca 50% rahast cashi panna (Kassi põhjendusi saab lugeda siit). Suured analüüsimajad prognoosivad tõusule veel lisa & keskmine S&P500 aastalõpu hinnasiht on viimaste nädalatega tõstetud 1022 punktile. Bespoke kirjutab aga strateegide soovituste kohta:
Regardless, we feel that predicting the S&P 500 a year out in this market is futile at best and dangerous at worst ( prognoose saab vaadata siit).
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USA futuurid hetkel miinuses & valuutaturul on EUR/USD liikunud 1.4220 juures. DB strateeg B. Chadha soovitab värskes analüüsis dollarit soetada (EUR/USD aastalõpu siht on 1.30 & 2010 1.15 ). DB hinnangul hakkab valuutaturul taas rolli mängima intressimäärade erinevus, mis majanduskasvu taastumise korral on dollari kasuks:
Our medium-term forecasts embody the view that rate differentials will re-emergeas a key driver of the dollar and that a gradual global recovery as per DB’seconomic forecasts will continue to push rate differentials in favor of the dollar.Key negatives for the dollar with recovery are higher oil prices and capital outflowson improvements in risk appetite. In our view, oil prices have already run up wellahead of reasonable forecasts of recovery making the risk/reward to thedownside. On risk appetite, equity vol has fallen below average recession levelsand should drift down with recovery. But our reading is that dollar-based investorshave more than covered their underweight in international exposure, and at lowerlevels vol become a less important driver. While maintaining our view of a firm tostronger dollar over the medium term, in light of the Fed’s emphasis this week oflow rates for longer, we are shifting out the timing somewhat and now expect aslower trajectory. Our year-end forecasts for EURUSD is now 1.30 (previously1.20; consensus 1.40) and for USDJPY 105 (unchanged; consensus 99).
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USA indeksite futuurid ca 0.5% võrra miinuses.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0.3%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.3%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.8%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.7%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0.2%
Venemaa MICEX -2.3%
Poola WIG -0.6%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.0%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.8%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.1%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.8%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.1%
Tai Set 50 +0.8%
India Sensex 30 -0.3% -
Four Tips for Dealing With an Extended Market
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/28/2009 8:58 AM EDT
I don't look to jump over 7-foot bars; I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over.
-- Warren Buffett
It is impossible to sit down, look at the market action over the last couple weeks and think, "I really want to make a lot of big aggressive buys right now." The straight-up move in this market is practically unprecedented, and we are extended and overbought by nearly any measure you might employ. That doesn't mean that we still don't have some momentum, and there is nothing to indicate that a major pullback is about to occur.
The great difficulty is that even my 4-year-old son can spot the overbought stochastics. Is there anyone who isn't aware of the fact that this market could use a rest? We all know that things are a bit too elevated, but we also know that the market may continue to act in this gravity-defying way for a while and not pull back very much.
The great anxiety for many isn't that they will be caught too long in an extended market, but that they won't be long enough when the extended market keeps on becoming even more extended. Those who have been trying to jump in on a market pullback are increasingly likely to just pay up so they don't have to sit on the sidelines with too much idle cash for longer.
How do we deal with this market that is obviously quite extended but is showing no signs of pulling back?
1. Don't expect a sudden and complete collapse. Markets that go up as aggressively as this one has don't just reverse on a dime and go back down. They stay sticky to the upside and will often only have shallow pullbacks that attract quick dip-buyers. Don't be overly aggressive with shorts until some real weakness begins to set in.
2. Don't throw your discipline aside. In a market this extended, you are not going to find many charts that are set up well in strong bases. There are some -- you'll have to work to find them, but they are out there. The important thing is to not just chase anything that is moving out of frustration over being left behind. Make sure you have a plan of attack in mind. If you buy a stock that is up five, six or seven days in a row, make sure you have a exit strategy in mind as well.
3. Stay patient. It can be frustrating to see the market rack up some huge percentage moves and hear the folks yell and shout about how great it all is while you were holding high levels of cash. The important thing isn't to dwell on where we have been; focus on what we are going to do next. Don't let the emotions affect you. Stay focused on finding good trades where you can control your risk.
4. Keep on digging. Even in a tremendously extended market, you can find opportunities. The key is to identify the themes that are starting to work and try to catch them as they gain further attention. They can shift very fast, but the hot-money traders will always be looking for something new, and if you can find it early you can knock out some trades ... even in a market that is painfully in need of some consolidation.
We have a little selling this morning, but noting too aggressive. The earnings reports that are trickling in continue to be mostly positive and there isn't any major news moving us.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: LCRD +25.3%, VECO +15.9% (also upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), AMED +13.9%, PCX +9.7%, EVVV +9.7%, ENOC +9.4% (also upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), SOA +8.8%, QLTI +8.6%, THC +8.3%, UIS +7.6%, SFSF +7.4%, UA +7.3%, MAS +6.9%, BWLD +5.1%, CVH +4.7% (light volume), HMA +4.7%, FDP +3.5%, AMGN +3.4%, RCII +3.3%, FNF +3.2%, BBV +3.1% (light volume), CHKP +3.0%, CF +2.6%... M&A news: SPSS +40.2% (IBM to acquire co for $50/share in cash), VM +24.7% (Sprint Nextel to acquire Virgin Mobile USA; public shareholders to receive $5.50/share )... Other news: ARIA +33.5% (announces preliminary data from two ongoing clinical trials of its investigational mTOR inhibitor, Ridaforolimus, in combination with targeted drugs), MRX +10.0% (announces approval of new strengths of SOLODYN; also upgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts), VICL +7.1% (receives $10 mln investment from Federated Kaufmann Funds; also to sell 2.8 mln common shares to Federated Kaufmann at $3.63/share in registered direct offering), SCLN +6.3% (expands portfolio by licensing Ondansetron RapidFilmfor Chinese market), TTM +4.9% (still checking)... Analyst comments: SNY +1.8% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), ADSK +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ODP -16.8%, IPG -12.0%, TRID -11.9%, DB -9.2% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), COH -6.8%, AME -6.7%, JEC -6.5%, WAT -5.8%, OLN -5.3%, MTW -5.2%, PCAR -5.1%, PFWD -4.6% (light volume), X -3.8%, VLO -2.5%, TSL -2.2% (also files mixed-securities shelf AND announces follow-on public offering of 4,000,000 American Depositary Shares), GOLD -1.9%... Select financials showing weakness: ING -4.3%, AEG -4.2%, UBS -3.3%, RBS -3.3% (Royal Bank of Scotland may back out of government lending plan - Times of London), CS -3.2% (downgraded to Underperform at FBR Capital), BCS -2.0%, AXA -2.0%, AZ -1.9%, LYG -1.8%, BAC -1.5% (BofA plans to cut 10% of branches - WSJ)... Select oil/gas stocks trading lower: WFT -2.7%, E -1.9%, RIG -1.9%, HON -1.8%, SNP -1.7%, TOT -1.2%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: MT -4.0%, AAUK -2.6%, VALE -1.7%, BBL -1.3%... Other news: USU -48.3% (Department of Energy denies USEC's loan guarantee application; also downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), ABK -15.8% (announces Q2 estimate of credit derivative impairment and loss and loss expenses), AIXG -9.0% (still checking), MTL -6.1% (still checking), MICC -5.0% (still checking), HGSI -4.2% (announces it has commenced an 18 mln share common stock offering pursuant to a prospectus), ANR -1.5% (Duquense Capital Mgmt, ANR's largest shareholder, reconfirms it will vote against FCL merger), SQNM -1.4% (announces launch of MassARRAY Compact 96 system), ... Analyst comments: CHINA -6.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Wedbush Morgan), WGOV -6.6% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), CERS -6.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), MET -5.3% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), LEN -3.5% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), PM -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), AXP -1.3% (cut to In line from Outperform at Fox Pitt- based on valuation), ERIC -1.2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS). -
lühivideo: Rebalancing the economy kust (kas?) tuleb USA majanduskasv?
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May S&P/CaseShiller Composite-20 y/y -17.06% vs -17.9% consensus, prior -18.10%
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July Consumer Confidence 46.6 vs 49.0 consensus, prior 49.3
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Yellen-i sõnavõtu peale turg kergelt kosumas:
Fed's Yellen says return to full employment likely years away
Fed's Yellen sees 'solid signs' growth is poised to resume
Fed's Yellen says recession to end, but recovery will be painfully slow -
Turg osteti põhjadest päeva jooksul kenasti üles, kuid S&P 500 poolt ei suudetud uut tippu teha. Viimase poole tunniga on pool päeva tõusust jällegi tagasi antud, kuid RUT ei kipu müügiga kaasa minema ja tehnoloogiasektor üpris tugev. Semid SMH päevaalguse müügist taastunud ja püsib eilse sulgemishinna tasemel.
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C-ga on täna juba ~970 mio käevet tehtud ja sellega aktsia +11.15% tõusu viidud.
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Sector ETF strength & weakness heading towards today's closing bell
Leading Sector ETFs: Airlines- FAA +3.5%, iShares healthcare- IHF +3.5%, Reg banks- KRE +2%, Biotech- BBH +1.5%, IBB +1%, XBI +.5%, US Bonds- TLT +1%, US Dollar- UUP +.5%, Dry-bulk shippers- SEA +.5%
Lagging Sector ETFs: Gold miners- GDX -4.5%, Wind energy- FAN -3%, Solar- KWT -3%, TAN -3.5%, Oil HLDRS- OIH -3%, Silver- SLV -2%, Steel- SLX -2%, Nat gas- UNG -2%, SPDRD utilities- XLU -2%, Energy- XLE -2%, IYE -2%, SPDRS metals/mining- XME -1.5%, Gold- GLD -2%, iShares transports- IYT -1.5%, Insurers- KIE -1.5%, Crude/WTI oil- USO -1.5%, OIL -1.5%, iShares broker/dealers- IAI -1%
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Sentiment indicators -- Market volatility is mixed with equities nearing the unchanged mark
Broad market volatility is mixed on the day with equities nearly unchanged. The Nasdaq (+0.3%) is modestly outperforming the other major indices (SPX -0.3% and Dow -0.42). Market volatility initially pushed higher as market averages turned modestly weaker following the below consensus confidence data. The "fear gauges" have moved off their highs with the VXN turning negative on the day with modest outperformance in the Nasdaq. The VIX is currently +0.90 (+3.7%) at 25.18, while the more tech-focused VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) is -0.06 (-0.2%) at 25.59. The CBOE put/call ratio is currently at 0.80, indicating higher call trading than put trading. -
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