Börsipäev 3. august
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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USA turgudel kujunes reedene päev volatiilseks, kuid indeksid suutsid siiski kerges plussis lõpetada (Nasadaq aga -0.3%). Ühest küljest tõi Ühendriikide teise kvartali registreeritud majanduslangus oodatust paremaid sõnumeid (-1.5% asemel -1%), kuid teisest küljest näitasid korrigeeritud minevikuandmed järsemat retsessiooni 2008. aastal.
Kokkuvõttes tõusis S&P 500 indeks juulis 7.4%, Nasdaq +7.8% ning Dow Jones +8.6%, mis oli viimase seitsme aasta parim kuu. Viie kuuga on S&P500 rallinud 34%, registreerides parima viie kuu tulemuse alates 1938. aastast.
Aasia turgudel on hommikul sentiment olnud positiivne tänu Jaapani suurima panga Mitsubishi UFJ kasumisse jõudmisele esimest korda läinud üheksa kuu jooksul ning Hiina PMI indeksi kerkimisele 12 kuu kõrgeimale tasemele.
Makroandmetest tuleb täna kell 17.00 avaldamisele USA tootmisaktiivsust mõõtev ISM indeks, mis konsensuse arvates tõusis juuni 44.8 punktilt 46.5 punktile. Juulikuu automüügi numbrite kohalt võis aga juuli kujuneda selle aasta parimaks kuuks tänu valitsuse stiimulipaketi mõjudele.
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Eurotsooni juulikuu PMI indeks tuli mõnevõrra madalam võrreldes üleelmisel nädalal avaldatud esialgse näitajaga (46.8), kuid 46.3 punktini jõudmine märkis siiski olulist paranemist võrreldes juunikuu 42.6-ga. Ehkki indeks jääb endiselt alla 50 punkti taseme, näidati juulis teiseks kõige kiiremat tõusu antud uuringu ajaloos ning lisab tõestusmaterjali, et kõige hullem on eurotsooni majanduse jaoks juba selja taga.
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Nissan avalikustas täna massturgudele möeldud 0-emisisiooniga elektriauto, mille akude täislaadimiseks kodus kulub 8 tundi ning sellega suudab keskklassi sõiduk läbida 100 miili. See on ka üks põhjuseid, miks Renaulti aktsia on täna üle 6% plussis ning kauplemas 9.5 kuu tippude juures (32 EUR), kuna Prantsuse autotootjale kuulub 44% Nissanist.. Ühtlasi sai Renault HSBC-lt kõrgema aktsiareitingu ja hinnasihi: equal-weight > overweight, 12 EUR > 40 EUR
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Nagu hommikuses turuülevaates sai mainitud, siis täna avaldasid majandusuudised kaks Suurbritannia pangandushiiglast Barclays ja HSBC Holdings. Barclays teatas, et 1H09 netokasum kasvas möödunud aasta sama perioodiga võrreldes 9.9%. Siinkohal oli suureks abiks investeerimispanganduse üksus. Sellegipoolest kujuneb teine poolaasta ettevõtte sõnul üpriski künklikuks. Esimese poolaasta netokasumiks kujunes möödunud aasta £1.72 miljardi asemel £1.89 miljardit ($3.15 miljardit). Konsensus ootas ettevõttelt aga vähemalt £1.96 miljardilist netokasumit. 35% maksueelsest kasumist laekus Barclays Capital ehk Barclaysi investeerimispanganduse üksusest. Kasumieelseks netokasumiks kujunes £2.98 miljardit ehk 8% enam, kui möödunud aasta £2.75 miljardit (analüütikud ootasid maksueelseks netokasumiks aga hoopiski £3.6 miljardit). Esimesel aastapoolel ettevõte dividende investoritele ei maksa – möödunud aasta esimeses aastapooles oli dividendimääraks aga 11.5 penni aktsia kohta. Dividendide maksmisega tehakse ettevõtte sõnul algust veel enne käesoleva aasta lõppu. Barclays aktsiahind kallines 6.51%.
Barclays Plc aktsiahinna liikumine ajaperioodiga 1 aasta
1H09 majandustulemustega tuli välja ka HSBC Holdings Plc. Ettevõtte esimese poolaasta netokasum kahanes aga möödunud aastaga võrreldes koguni 57% - pangandusettevõtet kummitavad endiselt madalakvaliteedilised laenud. 1H09 netokasumiks kujunes $3.35 miljardit, mis on möödunud aasta $7.7 miljardiga võrreldes oluliselt nigelam tulemus. Laenude tagasimaksmisega seonduvad kulutused kerkisid koguni 40% ehk $13.9 miljardile. HSBC maksueelne netokasum langes 51% ehk $5.02 miljardile (1H08 $10.25 miljardit). Ettevõtte aktsiahind kallines 5.42%.
HSBC Holdings aktsiagraafik ajaperioodiga 1 aasta
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Tugevalt positiivne juulikuu nüüdseks möödas ning saame algust teha augustiga. Üldiselt on kuu esimesed börsipäevad USAs kippunud lõppema pigem plussis kui miinuses. Üheks põhjuseks fondihalduritele kuu alguses laekuvad rahasummad, mida on võimalik turgudele investeerida. Eelturul ollakse igaljuhul optimistlikud - S&P500 futuurid on ca 0.8% ning Nasdaq100 futuurid ca 1.0% kõrgemal.
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Boeingu hädad uue Dreamlineriga jätkuvad. Pole kerge midagi täiesti uut toota - eriti kui jutt käib lennutööstusest.
Boeing's Dreamliner may face six-month delay, Senior Plc says. Bloomberg.com reports the co, which has delayed the delivery of its 787 Dreamliner five times, may not get it flying for another six months, said Senior Plc, a British supplier of air ducts and other parts for the plane. Boeing failed to make good on a June 16 pledge at the Paris Air Show that the 787 would fly before the end of that month. The two-year delay in the plane's development has allowed Airbus SAS to gain ground with orders for its competing A350 model. "Their credibility is somewhat in question," Chief Executive Officer Mark Rollins said today in a telephone interview. "We estimate another six-month delay." Boeing, which has 850 orders for the 787, originally forecast production of 120 planes a year by 2012, although that looks less likely now, he said. -
USA turud alustavad augustikuu esimest päeva lennukalt. S&P500 futuurid on kõrgemal 1% jagu ja noolivad 1000 punkti taset, olles hetkel 995 punkti juures. Nafta on plussi tõusnud juba 2.7% ja barrel maksab $71.3.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +1.51%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.29%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.51%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.20%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.67%
Venemaa MICEX +3.66%
Poola WIG +1.38%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.04%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.44%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.48%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.91%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.23%
Tai Set 50 +3.26%
India Sensex 30 +1.62% -
Resist the Urge to Doubt the Uptrend
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/3/2009 8:30 AM EDT
Happiness is a continuation of happenings which are not resisted.
-- Deepak Chopra
Monday mornings and the first day of a new month often see some cash inflows into the market, and that seems to be the case today. Some good earnings at major European banks and strength in the commodity/mining sector are helping to drive a positive open as well. With earnings season slowing, there isn't much major news on the wires, but there is nothing negative.
I saw a number of stories in the popular press this weekend about the historic nature of the rally since the March low. That has to be creating some anxiety, especially for those who pulled back after taking some major losses as we traded down last year and early this year. Jumping back into this market means overcoming some major psychological hurdles for many, and what is even more difficult is that the euphoria on Wall Street isn't being matched in many places on Main Street.
The degree to which we have already rallied, the continued economic uncertainty and high unemployment make it is very easy to want to fight this market trend. There are all sorts of good arguments about why this market has gone too far and too fast, but all you really have to understand right now is that the trend higher is tremendously strong and that you have to respect it.
When a market is trending as strongly as this one has been, it doesn't much matter what the fundamental arguments against it might be. Many investors only see that the market is going up, and they are missing out if they stand around and argue about why it shouldn't be going up. Price action trumps everything else.
If you are trying to put some money to work in some new buys, this can be a tremendously frustrating market. There just haven't been any pullbacks and we've seen very limited consolidation. The straight-up move has created a huge amount of potential buying under the surface that is providing very strong support, and the less we pull back the more likely that the underlying buyers will grow more frustrated and start chasing things.
The strength in the market this morning has me a little lost for words. It is impressive action, but it makes trading a challenge. We can never be very trusting of Monday-morning euphoria, but given the strong momentum and the new page on the calendar, we have to give it plenty of respect.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BCS +10.0%, HBC +8.3%, MGM +5.1%... Select European bank stocks showing strength following BCS earnings: UBS +6.0% DB +3.5%, CS +2.7% ING +2.8%, RBS +5.9%, AEG +4.7%... Other news: INO +12.4% (co closed a $30 mln registered direct offering on Friday afternoon), ONTY +9.7% (announced that clinical data relating to long-term treatment with Stimuvax were presented on Aug 1; 10 of the 16 studied patients were alive without evidence of disease progression), TSPT +9.7% (co and Purdue Pharmaceutical Products signed an exclusive agreement to commercialize Intermezzo in U.S.), OSK +9.7% (awarded $1.06 bln order for 1,700 additional M-ATVs), ALVR +7.4% (still checking), F +7.1% (Reuters reports U.S. executives said on Sunday that Ford will post U.S. sales rise in July from year ago), RCL +5.0% (still checking), EBAY +4.2% (mentioned positively in Barron's)... Analyst comments: OWW +9.6% (upgraded to Buy at Benchmark; tgt raised to $4), WEN +4.8% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), NVDA +2.2% (tgt raised to $16 from $15 at Roth ahead of Thursday's earnings, saying they expect upside in Q2 and Q3).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FRME -6.8% (light volume), RRI -3.8%... Other news: HURN -70.2% (co announces restatement related to certain acquisition-related payments received by the sellers in connection with the sale of certain acquired businesses, announces resignation of CEO), SVNT -25.6% (co receives complete response letter from FDA for Krystexxa; FDA can not at this time approve the co's BLA for Krystexxa as a treatment for chronic gout in patients refractory), HMPR -17.3% (announces common stock offering for up to 32.5 mln shares), GMCR -3.5% (announces a 4 mln share common stock offering)... Analyst Comments: ANN -2.2% (downgraded to Underperform at Cowen), ORLY -1.2% (downgraded to Underperform at FBR Capital). -
Hoolimata ootuste löömisest Inteli (INTC) poolt nii 1. kvartalil kui ka 2. kvartalil, usub Amtech täna, et turg on Inteli puhul tegelikkusest jätkuvalt maas ning et 3. kvartali tulemused saavad Intelil olema ootustest kõrgemad... kui just vahepeal ootusi ei kergitata. Amtech on üks optimistlikemaid analüüsimaju Inteli puhul.
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ISM Manufacturing 48.9 vs 46.5 consensus, prior 44.8 - tegu on viimase 11 kuu kõrgeima näiduga.
June Construction Spending +0.3% vs -0.5% consensus, prior revised to -0.8% from -0.9% -
...ja 1000 punkti S&P500 indeksil taas ületatud. Esimest korda pärast 2008. aasta novembri algust.
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CIT halted, kas tulemas miskit huvitavat?
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BAC saab valeandmete esitamise eest karistada:)
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Bank of America: BAC
US SEC charges Bank of America with making "materially false and misleading statements" in Merrill Lynch acquisition according to court documents
SEC says Bank of America said Merrill "had agreed not to pay year-end performance bonuses" before the closing of the merger but that no such agreement had been reached. -
Sector ETF strength & weakness @ midday
Leading Sector ETFs:
Nat gas- UNG +8%, Steel- SLX +5.5%, Base metals- DBB +5%, SPDRS metals/mining- XME +5%, Oil HLDRS- OIH +5%, Dry-bulk shippers- SEA +4.5%, Solar- TAN +3.5%, KWT +3.5%, Crude/WTI oil- USO +3%, OIL +3.5%, Coal- KOL +3.5%, Silver- SLV +3%, Gold miners- GDX +3%, Ag futures- DBA +3%, Ag/chem- MOO +3%, Energy- XLE +3%, IYE +3%Lagging Sector ETFs:
US Bonds- TLT -2%, US dollar index- UUP -1%, Livestock commods- COW -.5% -
Bank of America: Sallie Krawcheck to take job at BAC, according to sources
Former Citigroup CFO to run BofA's Global Wealth and Investment Management -
Sector ETF strength & weakness heading into today's closing bell
Leading Sector ETFs:
Nat gas- UNG +8%, Steel- SLX +6%, Base metals- DBB +6%, SPDRS metals/mining- XME +5.5%, Dry-bulk shippers- SEA +5%, Oil HLDRS- OIH +4.5%, Solar- TAN +3.5%, KWT +4%, Coal- KOL +4%, Ag futures- DBA +3.5%, Crude/WTI oil- USO +3%, OIL +3%, Ag/chem- MOO +3%, Gold miners- GDX +3%, Commods- DBC +3%, GSG +3%, Energy- XLE +2.5%, IYE +2.5%, RBOB gas futures- UGA +2.5%Lagging Sector ETFs:
US bonds- TLT -2%, US dollar index- UUP -1%, Livestock commods- COW -1% -
tõsised majandusteadlased asja kallal:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b497f5b6-8060-11de-bf04-00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=70662e7c-3027-11da-ba9f-00000e2511c8.html?ftcamp=rss
/../plunging currencies in the three Baltic nations – Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia – /../ -
Eem, pole veel tervet artiklit jõudnud läbi lugeda, aga sa võtsid jupikese lausest kontekstist välja, muutes selle sisu. Täislause on:
Bank failures or plunging currencies in the three Baltic nations – Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia – could threaten the fragile prospect of recovery in the rest of Europe.
Ehk siis tuuakse kaks näidet asjadest, mis võivad toimuda. Mitte ei väideta, et toimuvad/on toimunud. -
millegipärast ei saa ma enam sellele artiklile ligi.
aga mitte valuuta ei lange, vaid "threat is plunging" -
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) beats by $0.11, misses on revs. Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.62 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.11 better than the First Call consensus of $0.51; revenues were $1.67 bln vs the $1.89 bln consensus.
