Börsipäev 4. august
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Augustikuu esimese börsipäevaga jätkati juulikuu võimast tõusu ning S&P500 ületas 1000 punkti taseme ning jõudis viimase 9 kuu tippudele. Täna tund aega enne turu avanemist teatatakse juunikuu eraisikute sissetuleku muutus (ootuseks -1.0%) ja kulutuste muutus (ootuseks +0.3%). Kell 17.00 tuleb juunikuu Pending Home Sales, millelt oodatakse 0.3%list kasvu.
Kuigi üksikuid makroandmeid tuleb ka järgnevatel päevadel, on kõigi silmad ootusärevalt suunatud ikkagi reedesele tööjõuraportile. -
http://www.ap3.ee/Default2.aspx?ArticleID=c2487587-d23a-4025-8279-e9cf5f3f0ad0&ref=rss
Mobius ostab Olympicut ja Tallinki? -
Mobius käis 16. juulil Tallinnas paari siinset ettevõtet külastamas, aga tema juhitavate fondide mahtude juures on siinsed aktsiad liiga väiksed ja vähelikviidsed
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Viimase kuu tõus on olnud niivõrd äkiline, et leidub ka neid varahaldajaid, kes on otsustanud minna 100% rahasse, et kas või ajutiselt kasumeid lukku panna. Järgmine tükk on pärit Ron Insana sulest RealMoney alt eile hilisõhtul:
Why I Went Fully Into Cash
By Ron Insana
Earlier today I talked about a melt-up in the markets, which may very well be in the cards. But I also told subscribers to my "Market Movers" newsletter later in the morning that I was taking my entire portfolio to cash.
It was, admittedly, a shocking reversal to my recent stance on the markets and my views on longer-term investing. But the reason I moved to cash, as a manager of real money, as opposed to a model portfolio, centered on prudent portfolio management.
The "Market Movers" portfolio had gained roughly 47% since its inception through early this morning. In recent days, the portfolio was jumping 2% or 3% at the opening bell, quickening the pace of recent gains.
The stocks, in the aggregate, were rising at a better than 100% annualized rate. Those kinds of gains are too rich for my blood, even though I believe that all the stocks in the portfolio will appreciate significantly in the next two to five years.
Having said that, the volatility of the portfolio is often double that of the S&P 500, making it both difficult and expensive for me to protect my gains with hedges, whether it's selling S&P futures, buying puts or using ETFs.
I have found, through some expensive mistakes, that hedging cannot always allow you to hold on to profits during a market correction, nor can it protect historic gains from vaporizing over the remainder of the year.
Hence my decision today to go to cash and trade around the market until a point where I decide it is prudent for me to re-enter. I am highly likely to buy many of the same stocks back, particularly banks, homebuilders and a host of others. My move is not a referendum on the individual stocks in my portfolio or on the market overall.
It is, however, a conscious decision for me to lock in gains and use the proceeds to explore some trading opportunities in individual stocks I have been watching in recent weeks, or to trade the S&P, both long and short, until I decide that a full re-entry is warranted.
I am not recommending that everyone follow my lead on this. For those who have longer-term time horizons, there's no need to do anything here.
As a portfolio manager, however, I believe it is incumbent upon me to protect my gains, especially since we have come so far, so fast. -
Eile õhtul langetas Goldman Sachs maikuu tippude lähedal kaupleva Lamar Advertisingu (LAMR) soovituse "neutraalse" pealt "müü" peale. Arvatakse, et aktsia on oma kasumipotentsiaalist ette rutanud. Reedel avaldas oma tulemused ka Eestis tegutsev JC Decaux, kuid kommentaarides oldi reklaamituru paranemise osas skeptilised. Goldman Sachs rakendab LAMRi 2010. aasta aktsiapõhisele rahavoole ($1.25) kordajat 12 ning saab aktsia hinnasihiks $15. Hetkel kaubeldakse hinna $22 juures ning kuigi hinnasiht jäeti muutmata, peaks downgrade saama üksjagu tähelepanu. Teisalt avaldab LAMR oma teise kvartali tulemused neljapäeval, mistõttu esialgne negatiivne reageering võidakse ka kiirelt tagasi osta.
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Fundtech (FNDT) ületab oma 2. kvartali tulemustega turu ootusi ning näitab non-GAAP EPSi $0.11 vs oodatud $0.08. $28.4 miljoniline müügitulu vastab ootustele ning samuti on ootustele vastavad 3. kvartali prognoosid. Ettevõte soovib jätkata (ja suurendada) aktsiate tagasiostuprogrammi ning juhtkond ütleb pressiteates, et ettevõte hakkab nägema märke, mis viitavad suurte pankade valmisolekule taas oma infrastruktuuri arendamisse investeerida. Konverentsikõne toimub Eesti aja järgi kell 15.30 - link siin.
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Kas OMXV indeks murrab täna 200 punkti piiri...?!
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Joel, räägi CHK väga headest tulemustest kah. Hea bet. JP Morgan tõstab hinnasihi 37 usdile
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Mult on varem küsitud, kuidas kaitsta ennast dollari odavnemise vastu võrreldes teiste maailma valuutadega. Üks selline instrument on USA börsil täiesti olemas - UDN. Nimelt UDN tõuseb, kui dollar odavneb euro, jaapani jeeni, Suurbritannia naela, Šveitsi franki, Rootsi krooni ja Kanada dollarist koostatud valuutakorvi vastu. UDNile on soovi korral võimalik peale osta ka optsioone.
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Chesapeake'i (CHK) tulemustega võib minu arvates tõepoolest rahule jääda ja pikaajaline potentsiaal ettevõttesse investeerides on korralik. Kommentaar Pro alla saab üles veel tänase päeva jooksul. Kuigi eelturul on aktsia pisut miinuses, on see viimase aja kiiret tõusu arvestades ja täna hommikusi punaseid futuure arvestades okei. Mitmed analüüsimajad on aktsiat tulemuste järgselt kiitnud - JPM on väljas$37.5lise sihiga, Stifel Nicolaus $38lise sihiga ning Morgan Stanley kinnitab oma $34list sihti.
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June Personal Income -1.3% vs -1.0% consensus; prior revised to +1.3% from +1.4%.
June Personal Spending +0.4% vs +0.3% consensus; prior revised to +0.1% from +0.3%. -
Bank of America has eased loan terms for 4% of troubled homeowners eliglble under rescue, Wells Fargo has offered help to 6% of eligible; JPMorgan 20%, according to Treasury
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USA futuurid indikeerivad turgude avanemist ca 0.5%lises miinuses, mille peamiseks põhjuseks võib pidada punast Euroopa turgu.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0.79%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.68%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.12%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.90%
Rootsi OMX 30 -1.85%
Venemaa MICEX -1.04%
Poola WIG -1.43%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.22%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.05%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.25%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.45%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.36%
Tai Set 50 +0.04%
India Sensex 30 -0.59% -
Be Patient, and Wait for a Return of Favor
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/4/2009 8:48 AM EDT
When all the world is young, lad,
And all the trees are green;
And every goose a swan, lad,
And every lass a queen;
Then hey for boot and horse, lad,
And round the world away;
Young blood must have its course, lad,
And every dog his day.
-- "The Water Babies" by C. Kingsley
As the market has gone straight up without a pause over the last couple of weeks, I have written numerous times about how this isn't necessarily such an easy market for many market players. When you see the celebration in the media and constantly read about the wonderfulness of it all, it is quite easy to feel like you might be missing out. And in fact, most active market players are missing out to some degree.
The folks who benefit the most in a market that goes straight up are those who stay fully invested and use a buy-and-hold approach. If you simply stayed fully long for the last couple of weeks, you have had the superior investment strategy for this market.
A more active approach to the market over the last few weeks -- where you locked in gains as stocks became extended and looked to buy pullbacks as they occurred -- would have left you underperforming. Your sales would have been too early, as things just kept on running, and your new buys would be negligible because pullbacks just weren't occurring.
Of course, the reverse would have been the case as the market fell apart last year and earlier this year. The fully invested, buy-and-hold approach would have cost you dearly, while the more active approach would have likely yielded far superior results.
There isn't anything particularly profound about that observation, but it is important because people tend to forget how styles fall in and out of favor. If you are active in the markets, it is inevitable that you will go through periods of frustration and underperformance. It is the nature of the beast, and there isn't much you can do about it. You might try to reinvent your investing style as the market evolves, but that is tremendously difficult. Not only does your timing have to be quite good, but you also have to adjust to a new approach that may be uncomfortable and unfamiliar.
If you have been feeling frustrated at being underinvested as this market runs away, I can assure you that you will have your day again. The important thing is that you not let emotions push you to do something rash. You just need to embrace the fact that the market is full of cycles and that eventually every dog will have his day.
We have a slight pause in the action this morning. The news wires are quite slow and a little profit-taking is kicking in. The market has been way too strong to suddenly and completely fall apart, but the likelihood of hitting an air pocket at this lofty altitude is quite high.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TAST +14.3%, CRAY +10.2%, CTSH +6.7%, WMS +6.1% (also upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), SNTS +5.7%, WLK +5.2% (light volume), SYKE +5.1% (light volume), CVS +4.4%, EXBD +4.1%, CAM +3.2%... M&A news: PAS +7.1% and PBG +6.4% (Bloomberg reports that PEP is said to be near a takeover agreement with bottlers)... Other news: MELA +12.7% (FDA Accepts MELA's MelaFind Pre-Market Approval application for review), CNO +8.7% (continued momentum), GLBL +4.7% (into exclusive agreement with Fluor Offshore Solutions to jointly pursue Middle East projects), ONTY +4.4% (continued momentum from yesterday's 30%+jump), HURN +2.3% (modestly rebounding from yesterday's 30 point drop), CIG +1.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CEPH +1.5% (says Journal of Clinical Oncology Publishes TREANDA study demonstrating 'significant improvement' in overall response and progression-free survival in chronic lymphocytic leukemia)... Analyst comments: SVVS +3.6% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), HGSI +2.8 (upgraded to Buy at ThinkEquity).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: HLF -18.4%, STEC -9.9% (also announces secondary offering of 7.5 mln shares of common stock), IPHS -9.0%, UBS -8.1%, ADM -7.9%, G -7.1% (light volume), HOLX -5.6%, ATML -5.6%, EXPD -5.2% (light volume), PPL -5.0% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Soleil), ZBRA -4.9%, CTX -4.6%, TIE -4.4%, EMS -4.2% (also intends to commence a 7 mln share common stock offering), VMC -3.8%, ARNA -3.6% (also filed for a 28 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders), TXRH -3.1%, PHM -2.6%, SPG -1.8%, TM -1.1%... Select financial names showing weakness: IRE -10.8%, ING -3.2%, AXA -2.8%, HBC -2.8% (hires CICC, Citic on $3 bln - 5 bln a-share IPO, according to sources - DJ), LYG -2.4%, RBS -2.4%, ABB -2.1%, HIG -2.1%, FITB -1.9%, BAC -1.1%, MS -1.1%, JPM -1.0%... Select oil/gas names trading lower: PTR -2.9%, CEO -2.3%, E -2.3%, BP -1.3%, RIG -1.3%, OXY -1.2%, SLB -1.2%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: MT -3.6%, RTP -3.5%, BHP -2.6% (BHP names ex-Ford CEO as Chairman - WSJ), BBL -2.3%, ABX -0.8% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at CIBC Wrld Mkts)... Other news: ARIA -8.0% (announces public offering of 17,000,000 shares), SFY -7.1% (announces offering of 5,000,000 shares of common stock), NABI -6.8% (still checking), SIRO -5.4% (proposes public secondary offering of 7,500,000 shares), ENOC -5.0% (announces 3.75 mln common share offering), CENX -3.7% (still checking), AKS -2.1% (announces September 2009 surcharges $170 per ton for electrical and stainless steels)... Analyst comments: LAMR -6.3% (cut to Sell from Neutral at Goldman- Reuters), SVNT -4.7% (downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies), AIXG -4.5% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), CBS -3.5% (cut to Sell from Hold at Natixis), FTE -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill). -
PepsiCo confrims merger agreements with Pepsi Bottling Group and PepsiAmericas
PepsiCo (PEP) confirmed that it has entered into definitive merger agreements with The Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG) and PAS under which PEP will acquire all of the outstanding shares of common stock it does not already own in its two largest anchor bottlers. Under the agreements, PBG shareholders will have the option to elect either $36.50 in cash or 0.6432 shares of PEP common stock (which had a value of $36.50 based on PepsiCo closing share price of $56.75 on July 31, 2009) for each share of PBG, subject to proration such that the aggregate consideration to be paid to PBG shareholders shall be 50% cash and 50% PEP common stock. Similarly, PAS shareholders will have the option to elect either $28.50 in cash or 0.5022 shares of PEP common stock for each share of PAS (which had a value of $28.50 based on PepsiCo closing share price of $56.75 on July 31, 2009), subject to proration such that the aggregate consideration to be paid to PAS shareholders shall be 50% cash and 50% PepsiCo common stock. The total value of the shares that PEP will be acquiring is about $7.8 billion, and the acquisitions will create one of the largest food and beverage companies globally. Based on the recommendations of the Special Committee of PBG and the Transactions Committee of PAS, the boards of directors of PBG and PAS, respectively, have approved the transactions. This transaction is expected to create annual pre-tax synergies of $300 million by 2012 largely due to greater cost efficiency and also improved revenue opportunities. The acquisitions are expected to be accretive to PepsiCo's earnings by about 15 cents per share when synergies are fully realized in 2012. -
Chesapeake'i (CHK) konverentsikõne on väga enesekindel ja optimistlik ning koos konverentsikõne edenemisega on aktsia liikunud ka üha uutele tippudele.
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June Pending Home Sales M/M +3.6% vs +0.7% consensus, prior +0.8%; Y/Y +9.12%, prior +5.4%
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Sector ETF strength & weakness through the first hour of trading
Leading Sector ETFs:
Silver- SLV +2%, Airlines- FAA +1.5%, Insurers- KIE +.5%, Reg banks- KRE +.5%Lagging Sector ETFs:
nat gas- UNG -2.5%, Base metals- DBB -2%, Steel- SLX -1.5%, Wind energy- FAN -1.5%, Ag/chem- MOO -1.5%, Oil HLDRS- OIH -1.5%, SPDRS metals/mining- XME -1.5%, SPDRS utilities- XLU -1.5%, SPDRS retailers- XRT -1%, Dry-bulk shippers- SEA -1%, SPDRS homebuilders- XHB -1%, Energy- IYE -1%, XLE -1%, Semis- SMH -1%, IGW -1%, iShares transports- IYT -.5%, Ag futures- DBA -.5%, Commods- DBC -.5%, RBOB gas futures- UGA -.5% -
sai ka CHK-sse pilet võetud, ehk seekord õige otsus ja sõidetakse ka 30 peale.
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Müstiline turg, üle 7% miinuses avanenud Lamar (LAMR) on praeguseks hetkeks sisuliselt nulli jõudnud. Julgematele on tegemist üsna arvestava shortimis-kandidaadiga üle tulemuste hoidmiseks. Riskid siiski kõrged.
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Sector ETF strength & weakness @ midday
Leading Sector ETFs:
iShares real estate/REITS- ICF +4.5%, IYR +4%, Airlines- FAA +4.5%, Silver- SLV +3%, Reg banks- KRE +3%, RKH +3%, Comm banks- KBE +2.5%, Financials- XLF +2.5%, IYF +2%, Gold miners- GDX +2%, Insurers- KIE +2.5%, SPDRS homebuilders- XHB +2%, Gold- GLD +1.5%, RUT 2000- IWM +1%, Coal- KOL +1%, SPDRS industrials- XLI +1%, Solar- KWT +.5%, SPDRS metals/mining- XME +.5%Lagging Sector ETFs:
SPDRS utilities- XLU -1%, Wind energy- FAN -1%, US bonds- TLT -1%, Ag/chem- MOO -1%, Livestock commods- COW -1%, Oil HLDRS- OIH -1% -
Täna peale turgude sulgemist avaldab oma teise kvartali tulemsed Dollar Thrifty (DTG) - $379 miljoni suuruse turuväärtusega USA autorendifirma, mis tegutseb peamiselt lennujaamades ja populaarsetes reisisihtkohtades. USA autorenditurul tegutseb neli suuremat ettevõtet, kes omakorda pakuvad teenuseid kaheksa erineva brändi all. Kolm ettevõtet on ka börsil noteeritud: DTG, Avis Budget ning Hertz.. Neljas konkurent on Rent-A-Car.
DTG on huvitav just oma aktsia liikumise pärast – märtsi põhjadest on tõustud üle 2500%. Aktsiat kukutas mure majanduse, rendihindade languse ning kõrge võlakoorma pärast. Nendest kahe esimese pärast enam ei kardeta, mistõttu on tähelepanuta jäänud ka suur võlg. Netovõla ja EBITDA suhe on müstilistes kõrgustes ja kui analüütikute prognoositavat EBITDAt kasvõi kolmega korrutada, siis järgmiste aastate jooksul see normaalsele tasemele ei lange.
Tulemused ja sellele järgnev konverentsikõne saavad igal juhul põnevad olema, analüütikud ootavad EPSi -$0.23. -
American Axle (AXL) on "cash for clunkers" taustal tõusnud 3 päevaga +100% ja kauplemas $2.85 tasemel. Tegemist siis raskustes ettevõttega, kes sai JPM ja BAC kokkuleppele laenumakse pikenduseks 20. aug-ni. Suure tõenäosusega ei suudeta ettevõtet päästa ja hetkel toimumas shortide katmine, mis tänase käibe põhjal on hakanud hääbuma. Üsna kena shordi kandidaat, kuid peab väga tähelepanelikult jälgima jooksvaid märke.
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AXL saigi kerget müüki ja kauplemas hetkel $2.67 tasemel. Siit jälgiks juba veidi mängu.
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Millised on need jooksvad märgid AXL puhul? Või mängud? Te tõsimeeli shordiksite AXL, kuigi järgmised kaks nädalat võib siin veel igasugust tsirkust toimuda? Ja kui AXL shordile ikka näkku panema hakkab, siis ta paneb ikka igale poole mujale ka.
LAMR ka peetis. Mingid kauboid keeravad õhukesel eelturul asja nii koledaks, et keegi tervemõistuslik ei taha seda enam torkida. Ja üle tulemuste hoidmine on riskantne. Millal see enne riskantne ei ole olnud?
Hullud mehed need Vargamäe mehed, ma ütlen :) -
AXL eelturul $2.37 tasemel. Pool possust siit kinni ja teise poole stopi toon madalamale.
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Ja teise poole stop käiku 2.70.
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Et siis tõsimeeli tulemustele lahti short ja AXL-s? Sekopääd :)
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Hinna liikumisel kõrgemale otsin uut sisenemiskohta. Tulemustes ei olnud mitte midagi uut.
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Buckingham arvab, et AXL päästetakse ära ja nad on suht tasemel seal sektoris, aga ise ma pole stockiga väga tutvunud.
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American Axle (AXL) Earnings Call Summary:
Expects to complete their restructuring outside of bankruptcy; 1H09 will represent trough in production rates for the industry (3.10 +0.49)Total vehicle production in '09 is now forecasted to fall 19% YoY. AXL's business has been severely impacted by the bankruptcies at Chrysler and GM. Co says GM represents ~75% of total sales. They est GM and Chrysler impacts reduced Q2 sales by $204 mln in the quarter, co's net loss was $5.20 per share including all charges (-$1.74 ex-items as comparable). Co says -32% incremental margin was in-line with their expectations, says mid 20s (negative) is a good est for Q3. As of June 30, co was not in compliance with certain covenants and their credit agreement. Their waiver amendment has been extended through August 20, '09. AXL expects to complete their restructuring outside of bankruptcy. Co has nearly completed the restructuring; thinks it will finish restructuring activities, realigning AAM's global manufacturing capacity and reducing AAM's operating break-even level, by year-end '09. Co has lowered their break-even requirement by ~50% to ~7,500 axels per day since '08, new restructuring will lower the break-even level even further to about 6,000 axels per day. Co is currently somewhere near mid-point of 6-7.5K for break-even levels. Co sees production at over break-even (6,000 axels per day) from Aug through remainder of year. Co has many upcoming projects, in total, AAM's new and incremental backlog, programs launching in the years '09 through '13 stand at approximately $1.1 bln. $700 mln in orders through '09 -11, co references numerous launches coming up. 90% of $900 mln in new business bids ('10-'13) are outside of GM. Co believes 1H09 will represent trough in production rates for the auto industry; month of Aug may be a turning point as customers' schedules are picking up, Aug daily run rates are picking up nicely (above break even), although Q3 will still be negatively impacted by weak July. Improving production volume outlook should allow significantly improve upon the YTD performance in the remaining five months of '09. Co is benefiting from real, tangible cost reductions. Co has reclassified its long term debt to current liabilities, co says there are no changes in any maturities and are not currently in default in an of the deb agreements. Co is ready for volume, ready for inevitable recovery, even small improvement will make a big positive difference as they are now much more efficient. Co is working with GM proceedings and negotiating terms, no specifics; co expects to have a long term mutually beneficial agreement with GM. Co say it does not need creditor's approval to make $7 mln interest payment due on Aug 11. Co says there is too much uncertainty to provide formal rev guidance.
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Asi on kuu lõpu lahenduses, oleks cc-l miskit selles valguses roosiline olnud.... Aga muidu ihan ok käitumine nn kehvade tulemuste peale...
Isegi Lear annab osadele veel lootust, ammugi siis AXL :) -
Tänane +120% on hea näide, miks AXL tüüpi aktsiate shortimine eriti mõistlik tegu pole. Eriti üleöö või uudiste eel. Pole isegi võimendust vaja võtta, et kogu konto nulli lasta. 9 korda võib ju pihta panna, aga loeb see viimane 10. kord, mis suts nihu läheb......
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Ma usun, et AXL pikemas perspektiivis siiski kauplemas seal $1 juures. See, et said nädala jälle ajapikendust ja GM-ilt krediiti ei muuda tegelikult midagi. GM-l on hädavajalik oma tarneahel elus hoida, kuid isegi kui nad peaks ettevõtte üle võtma,siis ei maksa nad aktsia eest rohkem kui $1. Ja GM-i enda tootevalikus on vaja teha elus püsimiseks hädavajalikke muudatusi, mis omakorda nõuaks AXL suuri pingutusi. Kuna ettevõttes oli ~13.5 mio shorte ehk 28% floadist siis short squeesid üsna verised ja annab he setupi uue lühikese positsiooni soetamiseks. $5.70 selge ülereageering, kuid hetke squeesis peab väga hoolikalt valima positsiooni soetustaset, kuna hinda võidakse veelgi kõrgemale pressida.
Kuna hetkel turul kõik junk lendab, siis ei ole ka shortide elu kerge. Turg selekteerib lõppkokkuvõttes ikkagi terad sõkaldest ja laibad saadetakse rahulikult puhkama.
