Börsipäev 5. august
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Kuigi eile suudeti enne turu sulgemist taaskord lühikesed katma ajada, mis viis päeva lõpuks indeksid kiiresti tagasi päeva tippudele, viitas eilne liikumine siiski juba teatud närvilisuse ilmnemisele. Kui momentum peatub, tõmbavad momentumi peale mängijad oma panused laualt ka kiiresti tagasi.
Täna Eesti aja järgi kell 15.15 teatatakse ADP Employment Change juulikuu kohta, mis annab vihjeid reedel avalikustatava tööjõuraporti kohta. Täna oodatakse ADP'lt 350 000 töökoha kadumist, juunis oli see 473 000, seega ootused paraneva tööjõuturu osas on väga tugevalt tõusnud. Võimalik, et liiga kiiresti tõusnud.
Kell 17.00 tuleb juulikuu ISM teenindusindeks, millelt oodatakse 48 punktilist näitu, mis oleks pisut parem kui juuni 47 punkti. -
Eile sai CHK'st pikemalt räägitud. Pärast turu sulgemist tuli vanameister Jim Cramer välja omapoolse toetava kommentaariga, mille panen ka siia üles:
Nat Gas Stocks Set to Run Even Further
By Jim Cramer
I have never seen a group anticipate a bottom as I have seen in the natural gas stocks. This group, on the basis of a 40-cent move in nat gas -- admittedly big off the base, but come on -- has had a gigantic run.
Chesapeake (CHK) , with comments about involuntary shut-ins coming -- ones that it will not have to participate in because it says it wants to keep pumping -- is moving up big. Devon (DVN) , which reports tomorrow, has had quite a move ahead of the quarter. You can't get in the way of Apache (APA) or Anadarko (APC) -- they just have up written all over them.
Normally, I would say that I would want to short these into inventory numbers, but they have been totally non-predictive. It's just guys getting the jump.
Last year the selloff began after nat gas peaked and when it started going down. Perhaps this could be a mirror image, but it is also the second time this year that we have had a run like this.
To me, I think the group is posed for a big move, because I believe that there will be tons of shut-ins like Chevron's (CVX) last Friday, and we are seeing the early bets being made for hurricane season.
I'd go with it, not against it, but it sure is intimidating, as these stocks simply have the most beta I have ever seen, even more than the fertilizers! And that's saying something. -
Üsna huvitavat lugemist endiselt Morgan Stanley analüütikult Andy Xie'lt, kes prognoosib neljandas kvartalis korrektsiooni 50-100% ülehinnatud Hiina aktsiates ja kinnisvaras, kuid pidu võib jätkuda uuesti juba järgmisel aastal.
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Berry Petroleum (BRY) on naftaettevõte, mis kaupleb 6.2x Goldman Sachsi poolt prognoositaval 2010. aasta EV/EBITDA suhtel. Kuna viimase viie aasta jooksul on see suhe olnud keskmiselt 6.1, langetas GS oma „outperform“ soovituse neutraalse peale. Lisaks mainitakse, et tänu nafta kallinemisele tõusnud aktsial ei ole enam head katalüsaatorit, mis võiks hinda veelgi kergitada. Kõik positiivsed arengud on juba hinnas sees – lisaks nafta hinna tõusule on suudetud restruktureerida oma võlg ning müüdud $172 miljoni eest varasid. GSi hinnangul peaks nafta kauplema oma lühiajalise õiglase hinnataseme juures.
BRY avaldas eile hommikul ka kvartalitulemused, EPS oli $0.38 ehk $0.09 võrra analüütikute oodatust parem. Aktsia avanes küll korralikus miinuses, kuid suutis päeva sisuliselt nullis lõpetada. Kuigi GS jättis hinnasihi muutmata ($27), jääb aktsia täna ilmselt müügisurve alla. -
Inimesed kes lubavad korrektsiooni 100% ei ärata kuidagi usaldust.
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võib-olla jäi mu väljendus pisut ebaselgeks aga korrektsiooni ootab ta varadele, mis on 50-100% ülehinnatud
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Juulikuu ADP Employment muutus oli -371 000 vs oodatud -350 000.
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Siia sobivad juurde ka järgmised lõigud (CNBC):
Planned layoffs rose 31 percent in July from the month before, bringing the total number of expected job cuts close to 1 million for the year, outplacement company Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said Wednesday.
Expected job cuts hit a 15-month low in June, but rebounded sharply in July, the first monthly increase since January, Challenger said. The 103,312 planned layoffs for July are 6 percent lower than in they year-ago period.
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Eile peale turgude sulgemist avaldas tulemused internetireklaamiga tegelev ValueClick (VCLK), mis suutis analüütikute EPSi ootusi lüüa $0.03 võrra. Positiivse poole pealt saab välja tuua, et võrreldes esimese kvartaliga näitasid tulude kasvu kõik segmendid, välja arvatud meediasegmendi tegevuspõhine reklaam (lead-gen). Samas jäid kolmanda kvartali prognoosid oodatust madalamaks ning juhtkond tunnistas, et nähtavus tuleviku osas on halb.
Tulemuste peale on Citi kärpimas ValueClicki järgmise aasta EPSi prognoose ning oluliselt langetamas aktsia hinnasihti. Varasema „hoia“ asemel soovitatakse aktsiat müüa ning hinnasihti kärbitakse $13 pealt $10-ni.
The Sell Signals – 1) VCLK’s Lead Gen segment (20% of revenue) appears in freefall (down 39% Y/Y in Q2, down 45% Y/Y in Q3 expected) with some structural causes – advertiser move to Display & Search advertising; 2) Loss of higher margin Lead Gen revenue could put long-term pressure on Gross Margin; 3) Longstanding concern that VCLK’s Display segment will face increased competition from Yahoo! & Google increasingly likely to see materiality in H2; & 4) Affiliate Marketing weakness in Q2 (down 13% Y/Y) suggests competitive pressure or negative impact from States’ tax initiatives.
See võiks aktsiale liiga teha küll, Citi soovituse peale miinuses avanemine on normaalne. Samas kauples aktsia juba hommikuse eelturu ajal üle 5% miinuses, seega müüa poleks seda saanud. Teisalt võib aktsia muutuda kusagilt $10-10.5 kandist hoopis huvitavaks põrkekandidaadiks. Paljud majad on vastupidiselt Citile aktsiat kaitsmas – JP Morgan on oma hinnasihti tõstmas $11 pealt $12-ni ning Needham $13 pealt $14-ni. UBSi hinnasiht $12 peal jääb muutmata.
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USA futuurid indikeerivad börsipäeva algust eilsete sulgumistasemete ehk sõltuvalt indeksist viimase 9-10 kuu tippude juurest.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.05%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.53%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.20%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.51%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.67%
Venemaa MICEX +1.25%
Poola WIG -0.35%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.18%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.45%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.24%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.94%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.05%
Tai Set 50 -0.17%
India Sensex 30 +0.46% -
Still on the Hunt
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/5/2009 8:29 AM EDT
Life's challenges are not supposed to paralyze you, they're supposed to help you discover who you are.
-- Bernice Johnson Reagon
The great challenge of this market right now is trying to find ways to put idle capital to work. In fact, it is that challenge that has helped to keep the market in a furious uptrend. Market players are given few opportunities to buy on weakness, so they pay up and keep the market steadily ticking higher.
After the run we have had over the past few weeks, there is no easy way to jump into this market. You simply are not going to find many stocks sitting in solid bases. You will find some things that may have rested for a few days, but only following big runs. There are extended high-level bases but there is very little offering entry for those who do not follow the momentum strategy of "buying high and selling higher."
When a market is this extended, you simply have to be patient and not buy unfavorable technical setups simply out of frustration. It is not easy to do when it feels like the market will never pull back again, but disciplined traders have to stick with their methodology ... even when it isn't working.
One of the great frustrations of this market since the March low is that traditional technical analysis did a fairly poor job of helping you jump in and stay in this market. We have been technically extended a great amount of the time and have had fairly limited amounts of consolidation. There has been good trading, but a couple of the rallies during this time have been of very unusual intensity and duration.
I will continue to hunt for favorable chart setups to buy, but I don't expect to find much. On the other hand, even though the market is extended and in need of a rest, I don't see any great shorting opportunities. There are lots of stocks that logically should pull back, but until there are some cracks in the uptrend, they do not offer good short entries.
We have the Cisco (CSCO) earnings report tonight that will be of interest, but most of the big reports for the second quarter are now concluded. The next major event for the market will be the monthly jobs report on Friday. That could serve as a catalyst, but the most important thing to remember right now is that you shouldn't fight the trend ... and there is no doubting that the trend is up.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SCLN +37.8%, PLNR +30.4%, RDN +29.8%, GRMN +27.3%, DVAX +25.7%, BZ +18.0%, RDN +17.2%, PODD +14.9% (light volume), WFMI +12.8% (upgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), LYG +10.9%, TNS +10.1% (also upgraded to Outperform at William Blair), BRE +8.9%, FWLT +8.3%, HYC +8.3%, EXM +7.1%, DTG +6.4%, AIB +6.3%, CNO +5.6%, FIG +5.3%, TSRA +5.1%, CSTR +5.1% (light volume), AXA +5.0%, HLS +4.8%, BYD +4.6%, AGU +4.5%, ERTS +4.2%, KOPN +3.9% (light volume), PEGA +3.4%, MAKO +2.8% (light volume), MOLX +2.5%, SHPGY +2.2%, RL +1.9%, DVA +1.9%... M&A news: ONT +71.1% (to be acquired by Google; each outstanding share of On2 common stock will be converted into $0.60 worth of Google class A common stock in a stock-for-stock transaction), TRA +9.2% (CF Industries prepared to increase offer for business combination with Terra Industries to fixed exchange ratio of 0.465/CF Industries share)... Select financials showing strength: BCS +5.0%, RBS +4.9%, KEY +2.8%, HBAN +2.7%, BX +2.4%, FITB +2.2%, C +2.2% (Citigroup plans to sell 20 businesses - The Business Times), HIG +2.0%, BAC +1.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Other news: HEV +7.7% (Auto battery stimulus funds to be awarded - WSJ), TRP +1.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: KNXA +5.5% (upgraded to Buy at MKM Partners), COMS +4.9% (initiated with a Buy at Goldman- Reuters), ACOR +2.1% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), UNT +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at Jesup), CTSH +1.6% (raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman- Reuters), CCE +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at Argus), CVS +1.0% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at William Blair).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BBND -19.6%, ACAS -16.9%, GUID -13.5%, CLMT -12.4% (light volume), MOH -11.9%, MTEX -10.6% (light volume), MASI -9.2%, FOE -8.6%, AXL -8.0%, ONXX -6.4% (also downgraded to Above Average at Caris & Company), VCLK -6.3%, HK -6.2% (also announces public offering of 25,000,000 shares), PWR -6.1%, AMMD -5.3%, BMC -4.3%, CEPH -3.7%, APEI -3.6%, RIG -3.4%, PG -3.3%, CTRP -3.1% (also downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna Financial), KFT -1.9%, PZZA -1.8%... Other news: ISPH -9.5% (announces $80 mln public offering of common stock), DCP -5.7% (announces secondary offering of 10 mln shares of Class A common stock), HCP -3.6% (to offer 11,500,000 shares of its common stock), COT -2.1% (prices 9.435 mln common shares at $5.30), RDS.A -1.7% (trading ex dividend)... Analyst comments: OSK -3.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Keybanc), BRY -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman- Reuters), TSN -2.0% (downgraded to Hold at Keybanc), ADM -1.8% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), SPG -1.5% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer). -
VCLK pani ka $10st läbi nagu nuga sulavõist.
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ISM juulikuu teenindusindeks 46.4 vs oodatud 48 punkti.
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June Factory Orders +0.4% vs -0.8% consensus, prior revised to +1.1% from +1.2%
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Kas turg on vaba languses?
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Turg on ori languses.
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Möödunud nädala energia varude muutused:
toornafta varud +1 670 000 vs oodatud +600 000.
mootorkütuse varud -218 000 vs oodatud -800 000.
distillaatide varud -1 136 000 vs oodatud +1 225 000. -
Sector ETF strength & weakness @ midday
Leading Sector ETFs:
Base metals- DBB +3%, Reg banks- RKH +3%, Nat gag- UNG +2.5%, Comm banks- KBE +2%, Finance- XLF +2%, IYF +1.5%, iShares REITS/real estate- ICF +1.5%, IYR +1.5%, Silver- SLV +1%Lagging Sector ETFs:
Oil HLDRS- OIH -2%, Coal- KOL -2%, Solar- KWT -2%, TAN -2%, Biotech- XBI -2%, BBH -2%, IBB -1.5%, RUT 2000- IWM -1.5%, Semis- SMH -1.5%, IGW -1.5%, SPDRS healthcare- XLV -1.5%, Clean energy- PBW -1.5%, iShares transports- IYT -1.5%, RBOB gas futures- UGA -1%, Dry-bulk shippers- SEA -1.5%, Ag futures- DBA -1%, SPDRS industrials- XLI -1%, Gold miners- GDX -1%, Energy- IYE -1%, XLE -1% -
(AXP) American Express CEO: Credit Metrics Show 1st Signs Of Improvement In 18 Mos-Fox Business
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Seeing massive Short-covering, momentum buying in left for dead names such as RDN (59%), AIG (+56%), CIT (+47%), FNM (+30%), FRE (+29%)
These are all stocks that Short Sellers had hopes of riding down to insolvency. Typically get this type of price action in the last days of a massive advance in the market, as money starts flowing to "broken" names because they are "cheap" on a price basis and often have considerable remaining short-interest.
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JPM on kauplemas $42 tasemel +4.5% tõusus, mis on ühtlasi ka suure languse eelne tase.
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Päris palju jutuainet pakkunud avaldus DB poolt:
Nearly half of mortgages seen underwater by '11 - Reuters.com
Reuters.com reports the percentage of U.S. homeowners that owe more than their house is worth will nearly double to 48 percent in 2011 from 26 percent at the end of March as home prices continue to fall, Deutsche Bank said. Home price declines will have their biggest impact on "conforming" loans that meet the underwriting guidelines of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bank said in a report. Of those conforming loans, 41 percent will be "underwater" by the first quarter of 2011, up from 16 percent at the end of the first quarter 2009, it said. -
Ehkki meil on majadeehitajate börsil kaubeldav fond XHB ostusoovitusena lahti ning tõusu üle üldiselt ei nurise, siis mõtlema paneb ometi. Viimasest 18st päevast on tõusupäevi olnud 17...
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Aga kui tahta turust rääkida, siis polegi midagi öelda. As usual.
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Vt viimast 3 minutit:)
Ja isegi finants tuleb kergelt alla, kas täna ka viimastel minutitel ostetakse?
Skeem on töödanud üsna pikalt niikaua kui enam ei tööta:) -
Eufooria Alari poolt juba korra kopeeritud near-penny aktsiates peaks küll pulle murelikuks muutma. Tõus on väga paljusid ära uinutanud ning nagu hommikul kirjutasin, on praegu turgudel ka omajagu momentumraha ja lühikeste (sund)katmist. Kui sidrun on lõpuni tühjaks pigistatud ja momentum kaob, võib mõnes nimes ikka väga kiiret ostuhuvi kadumist näha.
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Mis siis nüüd juhtus? Kuidas Fed turgudel nii rämedalt kukkuda lasi? Evil shortsellers.
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AIG käive 133mio ja C käive 1.8 miljardit aktsiat. C-l aktsiate konvertimise tõttu ka suur käive, kuna indeksid peavad positsioone korrigeerima.
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Cisco Systems prelim $0.31 vs $0.29 First Call consensus; revs $8.5 bln vs $8.52 bln First Call consensus
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Kahtlemata on CSCO tulemused täna ühed oodatumad ja hoolimata tulemuste-eelsest kiirest tõusust on praegune reaktsioon üles. Aktsia kaupleb järelturul selle aasta uutel tippudel. Homse suuna annab pigem konverentsikõne.
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CSCO nüüdseks juba -4.32% langusesse vajunud ja kauplemas $21.47 tasemel.
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Kuulasin enne Cisco conf calli, Chambers oli räigelt positiivne, kõik on nii hästi, asjad normaliseeruvad.. ja siis tuleb välja sellise fucked-up guidancega. Okei, ei ole tegelikult fucked-up, on oodatud numbrid, aga selle jutu peale oleks küll midagi enamat oodanud kui 15-17% yoy revenue langus.
