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Börsipäev 21. august

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  • Markit Economicsi andmetel on eurosala PMI tõusnud augustis 50 punkti juurde, mis on turud esialgsest langusest plusspoolele tõstnud (juulis oli indeks 47 punkti ja konsensus ootas, et see püsib ka augustis 50 punktist madalamal, mis viitab tootmise vähenemisele). Päeva teises pooles on tähtsaim makrouudis USA olemasolevate majade müük, mis konsensuse hinnangul on tõusnud viimase kümne kuu kõrgeimale tasemele.
  • Finants avanemisest kergelt vajumas, kuid turg tugev.
  • July Existing Home Sales MoM 7.2% vs +2.1% consensus
    July Existing Home Sales 5.24 mln vs 5.0 mln consensus

    Ja tureg läheb uutele tippudele, kusjuures data vist lekkis, kuna tugeva ostusurvega alustati jube 5 minti enne 17.00.
  • Sector ETF strength & weakness through the first hour of trading

    Leading Sector ETFs:
    iShares real estate/REITS- IYR +3%, ICF +3.5%, SPDRS homebuilders- XHB +3.5%, Base metals- DBB +3%, Oil HLDRS- OIH +3%, Insurers- KIE +3%, Reg banks- KRE +3%, Comm banks- KBE +3%, Steel- SLX +2.5%, SPDRS metals/mining- XME +2.5%, Energy- XLE +2.5%, IYE +2.5%, Gold miners- GDX +2.5%, Basic mat- XLB +2.5%, IYM +2%, Coal- KOL +2%, iShares transports- IYT +2%, Ag commods- DBA +2%, iShares telecom- IYZ +2%

    Lagging Sector ETFs:
    US bonds- TLT -1%, US dollar index- UUP -.5%

  • Fed's Bernanke says recovery is likely to start off slowly

    DJ reports U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made clear that while the global economy is on more stable ground, he's not expecting a rapid economic recovery. Speaking to a group of central bankers and global finance officials here, he said "economic activity appears to be leveling out in the United States and abroad." He added that the prospects for a return to growth in the near-term "appear good." But the economic recovery "is likely to be relatively slow at first, with unemployment declining only gradually from high levels," said Bernanke. The Fed chief noted that the global economy is much improved since officials last gathered in Wyoming for the annual, two-day conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. "Since we last met here, the world has been through the most severe financial crisis since the great Depression," he said. Still, Bernanke said "critical challenges remain." As examples, he pointed to ongoing strains in global financial markets and the continued difficulty businesses and households are facing in trying to obtain credit... Policy actions implemented in recent months have led to notable market improvements, he said. "Short-term funding markets are functioning more normally, corporate bond issuance has been strong, and activity in some previously moribund securitization markets has picked up," he said. He went on to note that stock prices have "partially recovered" and U.S. mortgage rates have declined significantly since last fall. Additionally, Bernanke repeated his call for policy makers to drastically reform financial regulations and also called on international leaders to continue their efforts to stem the financial crisis in order to secure a sustained recovery. "I hope and expect that, when we meet here a year from now, we will be able to claim substantial progress toward both those objectives," he said.

  • Existing Home Sales Surge

    Existing home sales jumped a whopping 7.2% to 5.24 million homes in July and greatly exceeded the consensus forecast of 5.0 million units. The monthly gain was the largest on record. Sales rose in all regions except the West, which saw a drop of 1.7%. On a positive note, even with the monthly decline, sales in the West are up 1.7% from last year. Inventory numbers rose 7.3% month-over-month. But the increase in sales offset the gains and kept supply steady at 9.4 months... Prices were weaker as the median home price declined 2.0% month-over-month. A large part of the decline was due to 30% of purchases being first time home buyers who tend to purchase less expensive homes and 31% of homes being in a distressed situation... The report provides support that the existing housing market may have hit bottom in terms of sales. Sales have increased each month for the last four months, which hasn't been seen in five years. We still believe that prices have not hit bottom as foreclosures continue to move down the pipeline. However, it is nice to see pent up demand being put to use.

  • Citigroup: Faber on CNBC discusses today's strength in C and AIG
    Faber discusses today's strength in C (+6.3%) and AIG (+5%). On C, he notes when the preferred conversion into common is completed, there will be 23 bln common shares outstanding (should be completed in a couple of weeks). Says this is not fully accounted for yet, because it hasn't been ultimately concluded. Notes the co still has a lot of exposure to real estate and mortgages, with $10 bln in alt-A exposure (as of Jun 30)... Regarding AIG, Faber notes that the strength is largely attributed to a short squeeze, trading almost its entire float already, as it is difficult to borrow at a -31% rebate.

    Tundub, et AIG peaks lähiajal korraliku languse läbi tegema, kuigi shortide pigistamine võib ka siit veel jätkuda:)
  • Fitch issues U.S. Banking Quarterly: Credit pressures continue to mount with CRE an ongoing concern
    Fitch Ratings expects that U.S. banking companies will continue to operate in a tough market environment and be pressured by rising credit costs. Fitch does not expect negative credit trends to reverse themselves in the near to intermediate term, particularly because of increasing concerns regarding exposure to commercial real estate (CRE) losses. Further, companies' earnings capacity and their ability to absorb higher credit costs is being eroded by narrowing margins, causing declines in spread income. Fitch is highly concerned with the prospect of significant deterioration in CRE, likely an escalating contributor to credit problems in 2009-2010.
  • Fitch-i mured siis selliste pealkirjade taustal:
    White House spokesman says housing seems to be "bottoming out"
    Ja turul: Sector Watch: New session high for Housing -XHB (15.41 +0.63)
    Very strong performance for the XHB today in the wake of the above consensus data with it recently setting a new session high of 15.41. The extension leaves its slightly under last week's peak and its 11 month close high at 15.55/15.53 with its Aug/11 month intraday high at 15.77.
  • Weekly Insider Trading Summary:

    Notable Purchases -- ACF, CAB, CPN, ATSG, GHDX, EMR;

    Notable Sales -- WYNN, MSFT, LINE, MAR, BEN, SYK, FLR, CREE

    Over the past week we've seen notable insider buying in the following stocks: AmeriCredit (ACF) 10% owner Leucadia National Corporation bought 200,000 shares at $16.24-17.41 on 8/13-8/17... Cabela's (CAB) Director bought 200,000 shares at $14.74-15.75 on 8/14-8/17... Calpine (CPN) Harbinger Capital Partners bought 164,214 shares at $12.52 on 8/14... Air Transport Services (ATSG) Red Mountain Capital Management bought 500,000 shares at $2.94 on 8/14... Genomic Health (GHDX) Director Baker Biotech Capital bought 66,630 shares at $19.60-19.99 on 8/13-8/17... Emerson Electric (EMR) Director bought 30,000 shares at $33.99-35.09 on 8/14-8/17... Orexigen Therapeutics (OREX) 10% owner Domain Partners bought 103,210 shares at $7.64-8.00 on 8/14-8/18... Zygo (ZIGO) 10% owner MAK Capital bought 82,148 shares at $5.65-5.97 on 8/13-8/17... Citibank (C) Director bought 100,000 shares at $4.00 on 8/17... Questar (STR) CEO bought 10,000 shares at $32.86 on 8/17... Universal Display (PANL) Director bought 32,217 shares at $9.93-10.27 on 8/14-8/18... Interactive Intelligence (ININ) Director bought 10,000 shares at $16.50 on 8/14...

    We've seen notable insider selling in the following stocks: Wynn (WYNN) CEO sold 2,000,000 shares at $57.97-60.64 on 8/14... Microsoft (MSFT) Director Bill Gates sold 3,000,000 shares at $23.40-23.81 on 8/13-8/14... Linn Energy (LINE) CEO sold 1,000,000 shares at $21.19-21.92 on 8/17-8/20... Marriott (MAR) Director JWM Family Enterprises sold 783,128 shares at $23.44-24.48 on 8/10... Templeton Resources (BEN) Chairman sold 200,000 shares at $92.13 on 8/19... Stryker (SYK) Director sold 310,000 shares at $39.59-40.97 on 8/17-8/20... Lumber Liquidators (LL) Director TA Associates and Chairman (pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan) sold 403,100 shares at $19.83-20.66 on 8/13-8/20... Par Pharmaceutical (PRX) 10% owner Deerfield Partners sold 240,416 shares at $17.47-17.93 on 8/17-8/18... Fluor (FLR) CEO, Group President, and EVP sold 53,466 shares at $51.16-55.94 on 8/13-8/19... Cree (CREE) Director (pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan) sold 70,000 shares at $34.01-34.27 on 8/13... World Fuel Services (INT) EVP sold 42,381 shares at $44.68-44.97 on 8/13... All sales exclude option sell offs... For regular updates on our insider summaries and commentary, please add Briefing ticker INSID to ticker alerts.

  • Dow Jones Tööstusindeks on müügis:)

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