Börsipäev 2. september
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September pani oma kurikuulsuse maksma kohe esimesel päeval, kui ISM oodatust paremast numbrist hoolimata lõpetasid S&P500 -2.2%, Dow Jones -1.96% ja Nasdaq -2.00% madalamal ning täna hommikul on teatepulga üle võtnud ka Aasia, kus Nikkei kaupleb 2.5% punases. Võimalik, et viimastel kuudel raketina üles lennanud aktsiaturud on viimaks pannud investoreid mõtlema, kas majanduse tervenemisest pole liigselt ette rutatud.
David Rosenberg kirjutas oma esmaspäevases turuülevaates, et SP500 ralli on tõstnud turu valuatsiooni tasemele, mis eeldaks juba teist faasi majanduse taastumises, ehkki tegelikkuses ei saa sedagi veel täie veendumusega öelda. et allakäik on lõppenud. Praegune hinnatase eeldaks järgmisel aastal 4%-list majanduskasvu, mille tõenäosust hindab ta 20%-liseks. Viis kuud kestnud ralli on tõstnud SP500 ettevõtete P/E suhet 8 pügala võrra, mis märgib kalleimat hinnataset seitseme aasta jooksul.
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Tootmisaktiivsuse hoogustumisele augustis on küsitlused ja uuringud viidanud nii USA-s, Hiinas, kui ka mõnes Euroopa riigis, mis annab alust oodata kolmandas kvartalis mitmel pool SKT V-kujulist põrget. HSBC on uusi tellimusi tootmises ja majanduskasvu kõrvutades jõudnud järeldusele, et USA kolmanda kvartali SKT võib näidata QoQ baasil 6%-list hüpet, kuna minevikus on säärased paranemised tellimusraamatutes aidanud tõsta maailma suurimat majandust vähemalt viis protsenti.
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Täna kell 15.15 tuleb ADP Employment Change näit, mis peaks heitma valgust reedel avalikustatava tööjõuraporti peale. ADPlt oodatakse täna -246 000list näitu (juulis oli -371 000).
Kell 17 teatatakse tehaste tellimuste muutus juulikuu kohta, kust oodatakse 2.2%list kasvu. -
Morgan Stanley on täna hommikul kommenteerimas Macau hasartmängupiirkonna augustikuu tulude rekordilist tulemust ning kinnitab oma positiivset vaadet sektoriga seotud ettevõtete vastu. Väike väljavõte nende analüüsist ka siia:
According to Lusa news, Macau August monthly revenue came in at a record MOP11.27 bn (+17% YoY, +18% MoM). This is the second positive growth month since September 2008 after the 3% increase in August. For this month (September 2009), revenue growth is expected to be around +40% YoY (due to easier comparison) and might give an impression of strong growth coming back to Macau. We believe hopes of visa easing from September 1, new CE appointment and events like anniversary for Macau and China should continue to drive expectations higher.
It can be seen that between June and August (July being anomaly), the market grew by 36% driven by 130% growth in MPEL (due to opening of “City of Dreams”) and 76% growth in MGM. MGM has generated more than MOP1.1 bn for the last two months vs. MOP700 mn over the last 12 months. Improved performance at MGM might not be good news for listed Macau operators in HK. -
Jeff Lewisega JPMst on Bloombergis tehtud ca 14-minutiline intervjuu. Muuseas ütleb, et tema arvates on Hiina turgude langus pakkumas head ostuvõimalust. Kõik sõltub muidugi horisondist, kuid lühemas perspektiivis vaataksin seal käimasolevat korrektsiooni veel kõrvalt. Hang Sengilt ootab kuu-paari lõikes ka Jeff momentumi äravajumist ja väikest korrektsiooni. Link siin.
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Uudis BP 3+miljardi barrelisest naftaleiust Mehhiko lahest 10 km sügavuselt on täna meedias päris palju uudispinda saanud.
Aga vaatame seda naftaleidu, mida Bloomberg kirjeldab sõnadega 'Giant' ja mille väljaarendamiseks kulub ca 10 aastat korraks ka taustsüsteemi suhtes. Puurauk läks välja 10 km (!) sügavuseni. Kujutage ette, kuivõrd suur rõhk seal seadmetele mõjub. Ning mis kõige tähtsam - see 'Giant' naftaleid pakuks tänase tarbimise juures maailmale naftat vaid 35 päevaks... Tõusva tarbimise tendentsi toel 10 aasta pärast, kui väli valmis peaks saama, siis tõenäoliselt juba 25 kuni 30 päeva....
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kindlasti on lihtsam endale kohe kuul pähe lasta kui jääda ootama nafta otsalõppemist
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ADP -298 00 vs oodatud -250 000.
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rams, või siis kiirendada teiste fossiilkütuste peale üleminemist (nt gaas), et jääks aega alternatiivsete energiaallikate efektiivseks kasutuselevõtuks. Seda, et Itaalia on maksnud subsiidiume neile uutele autoostjaile, kes ostavad endale maagaasisõiduki, olen korduvalt välja toonud. Ja olen nentinud ka seda, et USA vastupidiselt premeerib jätkuvalt traditsioonilise mootorkütuse peal liikuvate sõidukite soetamist oma C4C programmiga. Kuid õnneks on Kongressi tõenäoliselt oktoobris jõudmas maagaasi kasutamist soodustav akt, mis peaks vastuvõtmise korral ka maailma suurimas majanduses aitama kaasa selles suunas mõtlemise peale.
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mulle, vanale rekkamehele, meeldib ikka diisel
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Loomulikult on avastus hea uudis BP'le (kasu saavad ka Petrobras ja ConocoPhillips), kuid GS'i hinnagul ka midagi revolutsioonilist pole:
We don’t have a size yet for the discovery, but we can assume c1 bn bls of recoverable reserves. This discovery will be very challenging to develop due to its complex geology (Lower tertiary) and water depth (almost 11 km) and is unlikely to be producing before 2014. We value these reserves at c$3/bl. BP owns a 62% stake (Petrobras 20%, ConocoPhillips 18%) and therefore this discovery could be worth c$1.9 bn net to them (1.1% of market cap). Good news for BP, but it is hardly transformational and does not provide a solution to their thin pipeline of new projects in the 2010-13 period.
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A76 peaks ka nuusutamiseks päris hea olema
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Üks gaafik veel eilse ISM'i kohta:
Allikas: Deutsche Bank
Tervitatav on eriti uute tellimuste indeksi tõus 9.6 punkti, mis viitab, et majandus taastub kiiresti (võimalik, et ka oodatus kiiremini). Nagu Erko hommikul kirjutas, on valuatsioon turgudel kõrge ja selliste uudiste peale eile tõusta ei suudetud. Hetkel on futuurid enne avanemist kergelt miinuses.
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Tänane ADP raport kinnitab, et majandus võib küll taastuda, kuid tööturule see veel jõudnud pole. CalculatedRiskist veel üks graafik praeguste koondamiste kohta (juuli seisuga):
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Euroopast vaatab vastu punane pilt ning ka USA eelturg on väikeses miinuses.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0.93%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.16%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.66%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -2.27%
Rootsi OMX 30 -2.11%
Venemaa MICEX -2.81%
Poola WIG -3.69%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.37%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.76%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.17%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.49%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.28%
Tai Set 50 -0.10%
India Sensex 30 -0.54% -
Time to Regroup
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/2/2009 8:17 AM EDT
Beware of rashness, but with energy and sleepless vigilance go forward and give us victories.
-- Abraham Lincoln
After flopping around and doing little for a week, the market finally succumbed and sold off on high volume on Tuesday. The financial sector lead the pullback, but it was a very broad selloff and left little unscathed.
The issue now is whether this is the first significant crack that will end the uptrend that has been in place since March or just some healthy profit-taking that will shake out some excess and eventually set us up for further upside.
In the bigger scheme of things, the selling is still extremely mild. The S&P 500 is off just 3% or so from its recent highs, and the uptrend line from the March low has not been breached. We have a long way to fall before we even test that trend line or the 50-day moving average, which is around 965 on the S&P 500.
But just because the selloff is relatively shallow so far doesn't mean we don't need to be cautious. Plenty of stocks have already pulled back substantially, and many of the hot momentum names have incurred some meaningful technical damage. Riding these positions without some good money management can be extremely costly, especially in the early stages of a market pullback. Make sure you focus on individual positions and aren't too focused on the indices. You can incur some big losses very quickly in momentum stocks even when the indices don't correct all that much.
Even with the ugly action yesterday, I continue to believe that it isn't going to be smooth sailing for the bears. A lot of folks, both bulls and bears, are rooting for a more substantial correction. Bears for obvious reasons, and bulls because so many have been unable to put on long positions in a market that never pulled back much. There is a lot of wishful thinking about further downside creating some good entry points, and that alone is an indication that there is likely to be a fair amount of underlying support.
I've discussed the dip-buyers quite a lot recently because they really are the key to this market. They have been extreme tenacious, especially since the strong move that kicked off when earnings season began in early July. They just wouldn't let this market pull back for long. The dip-buyers were stung yesterday when they jumped in early in the day and that led to the ugly action, but I don't believe it is enough to completely discourage them. I look for them to regroup quickly and make another run.
Yes, the action yesterday was a negative and puts some cracks in the big picture, but it isn't enough to break the trend or completely discourage dip-buyers. We need to be more cautious, but there isn't enough damage done to be aggressively bearish.
We have a slightly negative start on the way. Overseas markets, particularly Asia, were weak again and there isn't much news of interest on the wires.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PAY +7.8%, JOYG +3.2%... Select oil/gas related names showing strength: BP +3.5% (discloses oil discovery at its Tiber Prospect in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico), E +2.1%, COP +1.7% (has 18% working interest in BP oil discovery), PBR +1.4% (has 20% working interest in BP oil discovery), TOT +1.2%... Select European financials showing strength: AIB +5.9%, DB +3.4%, CS +1.1%... Other news: VG +39.9% (obtains application approval for iTunes App Store), MDZ +28.0% (entered into an agreement to sell its MDS Analytical Technologies business), PPHM +11.3% (says Interim Phase II data presented at XIV World Congress of neurological surgery "supports potential of Cotara for treatment of brain cancer"), ACAD +8.0% (modestly rebounding following yesterday's 50%+drop), LIFE +6.4% (to sell mass spectrometry business to Danaher for $450 mln in cash), SPPI +3.4% (still checking), ANDS +3.3% (continued strength following yesterday's 20% jump), BUCY +2.2% (up in sympathy with JOYG), POT +1.1% (Potash ripe for takeover - Globe and Mail)... Analyst comments: AMKR +6.2% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), TXT +4.8% (raised to Conviction Buy from Neutral by Goldman Sachs - DJ), LVS +4.5% (upgraded to Buy at Argus; also discloses pre-IPO financing ), CBE +2.8% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), MOS +2.0% (initiated with a Sector Outperformer at CIBC).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DHT -14.4% (also decided not to declare any Q2 dividend), APSG -9.6%, ADCT -5.9%, DCI -5.2%, SEAC -4.5% (light volume)... Select financial related names showing continued weakness: FNM -8.8% and FRE -7.9% (Industry seeks Fannie, Freddie overhaul - WSJ), RDN -6.8%, AIG -5.6%, LYG -5.5%, PMI -5.4%, RBS -2.3%, UBS -2.3%, AZ -2.1%, C -1.8%, HIG -1.6%, STD -1.5%, RF -1.1%... Other news: RZ -10.3% (provides update on DoE loan guarantee program; received notice its application for its "East Thermo" project has been denied), ALU -8.6% (launches an offering convertible bonds), FLOW -3.8% (prices 7.825 mln common shares at $2.10/share)... Analyst comments: HOLX -6.0% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Adams), DHI -5.4% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), NVAX -5.1% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), FRX -2.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham- Based on valuation), ROK -2.1% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup). -
July Factory Orders +1.3% vs +2.2% consensus, prior revised to +0.9% from +0.4% (briefing)
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Fed Officials Cool To Expanding TALF Assets -Minutes - DJ
Fed Officials More Confident Growth To Resume 2H '09-Minutes - DJ
10-leheküljeline täistekst siin. -
Päeva lõpp nõrk. Dip-buyers running scared?
