Börsipäev 8. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Pärast eilset töörahvapüha on USA futuurid reageerimas positiivsele sentimendile Euroopas ning Aasias, olles praeguseks hetkeks liikunud 0.7-0.8% kõrgemale. Kui Ühendriikidest makrouudiseid oodata pole, siis Euroopas pälvib tähelepanu Suurbritannia ja Saksamaa juulikuu tööstustoodangu muutus. Mõlema puhul oodatakse paranemist, ent ootusi tõotab suurema tõenäosusega lüüa Saksaama näitaja, arvestades 3.5%-list tellimuste kasvu juulis, mis oli 1.5 protsendipunkti konsensuse ootusest parem. Statistikaameti sõnul oli selle taga kodumaise nõudluse hüpe (+10.3%) tänu kaitseväe 3.1 miljardi eurosele lepingule varustada armeed 405 soomukiga. Tellimused välismaalt vähenesid eelmise kuu baasil -2.3%.
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Credit Suisse'i strateegid leiavad, et veel on vara aktsiaid võlakirjade või cashi vastu vahetada. A. Garthwaite'i hinnangul tõuseb S&P500 2010. aasta keskpaigaks 1150 punkti peale. Positiivset nägemust põhjendatakse:
...GDP growth continued to be revised up while inflation is muted, earnings momentum is being revised up, many economic variables are back at pre-Lehman levels, valuations are not demanding on long-term measures and only 53% of announced quantitative easing measures have been implemented. (allikas: marketwatch)
CSi hinnagul on õige hetk aktsiatest väljumiseks, kui Fed hakkab intressimäärasid tõstma (W-kujult kaob teine jalg), saabub uus laenuraha kriis või Hiina kuumeneb üle.
PS. Euroopa indeksitele prognoositakse 12% tõusu ja Jaapanile koguni 23%.
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Tundub, et aasta pärast kriisi algust kardab Warren Buffett, et laiem aktsiaturg võib hakata taas kukkuma, kirjutab The New York Times.
Samal ajal kui paljud investorid jooksid aktsiaturgudelt hirmunult minema, investeeris legendaarne investor Goldman Sachsi ja General Electricu aktsiatesse. Nüüd on legendaarse investori investeerimisfirma tõmmanud aktsiate ostmiselt tagasi ning investeerib rohkem valitsuse ja ettevõtete võlakirjadesse.
„Probleemid pole veel lahendatud,“ lausus ta eelmisel nädalal kommenteerides õppetunde, mis on saadud viimase 12 kuu jooksul.
Äripäev -
Credit Suisse'i über-optimistliku põhjenduse juures küsiksin mina aga järgmise küsimuse: Kui palju sellest GDP growth'ist on ajutise iseloomuga ehk fiskaalstiimulitest tulenev ja milline on tegelikult underlying pikaajaline nõudlus?
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Joel, Goldman Sachs andmetel USA SKP osas on stiimulitest tulenev osa
Q3 2009 +3,3%
Q4 2009 +2,0%
Q1 2010 +1,5%
Q2 2010 +1,1%
alates Q3 2010 on mõju juba negatiivne -
Tööstustoodangu tegelikud näitajad muutsid üllatajaks hoopis Suurbritannia, kus oodatud 0.3%-lise kasvu asemel raporteeriti 0.9%-lisest paranemisest juulis võrreldes juuniga. Suurimat hüpet näitas transport, mida selgitab valitsusepoolne autotööstuse subsideerimine. Saksamaal tootmine aga kahanes, kui oodatud 1.6%-lise kasvu asemel vähenes toodang -0.9%. Ühest küljest mõjutas seda juuni näitaja korrigeerimine -0.1%-lt +0.8%-le, kuid teisest küljest tugev energiatoodangu kukkumine ning süvenenud langus ehituses ja tootmisvahendite valmistamises.
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Aitäh Henno,
(Tänaseks vastu võetud) fiskaalstiimulid peaksid tõepoolest Q3 10 otsa saama. Iseenesest ei ole ju välistatud näiteks 6-9 kuu pärast uue väiksemamahulise majanduse stimuleerimise paketi vastuvõtmine, kuid ühiskonna ja USA välisinvestorite vastasseis defitsiitide kasvatamisele võib sellele mõttele kriipsu peale tõmmata.
Igaljuhul tasub need numbrid, mis Henno on ülal kirja pannud, meelde jätta ja järgnevate kvartalite SKP kasvunumbreid vaadates nendega arvestada. -
Kuigi Deutsche Bank on tööjõuga varustavate ettevõtete osas üldiselt positiivselt meelestatud, siis Robert Halfis (RHI) toimund paraboolse hinnatõusu tõttu ollakse seal müügisoovitusega väljas.
Deutsche Bank remains positive on staffers following August employment report Deutsche Bank notes the August employment report showed continued progress with lower YoY temp declines but, somewhat disappointingly, still MoM temp losses. Firm thinks temps will grow MoM in September or October and YoY by the end of 1Q10E. With the economic data still improving, firm continues to like its overweight stance on the staffers. The IRR's to the mid-cycle are still near 15%, so it continues to like Manpower (MAN), TrueBlue (TBI) and MPS in that order. Firm rates Robert Half (RHI) a Sell due to its share price already nearly discounting mid-cycle earnings. -
Kaks huvitavat soovitust Notable Callsis (loe pikemalt siit):
JPMorgan tõstis General Electric Co (GE) neutraalse soovituse „overweight“ peale. Hinnasiht kergitati $12 dollarilt $17 dollarile.
Credit Suisse langetas American International Group Inc (AIG) soovituse "underweight" peale varasema neutraalse soovituse asemel. AIG hinnasiht kukkus $30'lt dollarilt $15'le.
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Tänase päeva olulisemaid liikumisi ei peakski seekord ehk otsima aktsiaturult, vaid toorme ja valuutaturult. Euro on päevaga dollari vastu tugevnenud üle 1% tasemele €1=$1.45 ning nafta on plussis 4% jagu tasemel $70.7 barrelist.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.39%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.22%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.48%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.11%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.30%
Venemaa MICEX +2.63%
Poola WIG +0.48%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.70%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.14%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.72%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.28%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.24%
Tai Set 50 +1.74%
India Sensex 30 +0.67% -
Respect the Action but Watch the Exits
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/8/2009 8:23 AM EDT
Trust, but look for the exits.
-- Mason Cooley
One of the most basic concepts of trading is that we should respect the trend. If prices are going up, we should defer to that fact and not be too quick to assume that they will reverse.
It is a fairly easy concept in theory, but it can be quite difficult to put into practice, especially if you spend a lot of time pondering the bearish arguments that grow ever louder as a trend persists. It is even more difficult to simply respect the trend in our current environment after going through one of the worst markets and economies since the Great Depression.
It isn't at all difficult to sum up the bearish case here. While the worst may be over, the recovery is likely to be slow and erratic. Continued high levels of unemployment and the giant debt we are racking up will be substantial headwinds. With those issues on the table, the bears can argue with some force that the market has overshot to the upside and is pricing in far better conditions than actually exist.
The problem I have with these bearish arguments is that although they sound logically compelling, I have no way of knowing if they really are accurate and if they are, when they might matter. It certainly seems unlikely that the market will recover from the worst economy in our lifetime in a "V" shape with hardly a pullback, but that is what is happening.
As a market player who doesn't believe that anyone has any special insight into macroeconomics -- especially when it comes to timing its impact on the stock market -- the only thing I can do is trust in the price action.
The market is always the winner of any argument. We can yell as loud as we like and be stunning in our brilliance, but the market will always prevail; if we ignore the price action. we will lose.
But trusting and deferring to the price action doesn't mean we can't be vigilant and quick to adjust our thinking. We must always have an eye on the exits just in case the price action changes and the market mood shifts.
Lately there were some signs that maybe conditions were changing -- we failed to rally on good news a couple of times and pulled back and did a little technical damage, but we bounced back strongly on Friday and are set to open with a big gap up this morning. The folks who were becoming increasingly negative after a three-day selloff last week once again find themselves in a market that is bouncing straight back up.
It generally isn't a good idea to chase strength to kick off a new week, especially after a low-volume bounce on Friday. The mood is upbeat, and it is going to be a particularly good test for the bulls to see if they can continue to build on this bounce and take us straight back up. We did exactly that from Aug. 18 to Aug. 28 after a short dip, and so far this bounce looks very similar.
We have an upgrade of GE (GE) , a takeover of Cadbury Schweppes and talk from the world economic meeting that maybe we can recover faster than anticipated all helping the mood this morning.
Respect that price action, but make sure you know where the exits are located. The bulls are still in control and that is the most important thing right now, but when a shift does come, it helps to be mentally prepared.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: XIN +8.3% AUO +6.3% (light volume)... M&A news: CBY +42.1% (Kraft proposes combination with Cadbury Plc; Cadbury rejects proposal; also upgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), ITLN +42.0% (Atheros to Acquire company in stock and cash transaction valued at approximately $244 mln), ORH +24.5% (Fairfax proposes to acquire minority stake in Odyssey Re for $60/share in cash)... Select financial stocks showing strength: LYG +5.6%, ING +4.6% (HSBC bids for ING's private banking businesses - Times of London), IBN +4.1%, C +3.1%, BAC +2.4%, CS +2.1%, RBS +1.9% (hires advisors from Goldman Sachs to shop its aircraft leasing business, valued at $8 bln, according to sources - WSJ), AZ +1.7%, MS +1.6%... Select metals/mining names trading higher boosted by higher spot prices: HMY +9.6%, DROOY +7.4%, PAAS +6.4%, HL +5.8%, RTP +5.7%, GOLD +5.7%, BBL +5.7%, RBY +5.7%, BHP +5.6%, MT +4.5%, AUY +3.5%, VALE +3.1% (Brazil's Batista in talks for stake in miner Vale, according to report - DJ), GG +2.9%, ABX +2.9% (announces silver sale agreement), GLD +1.1%... Select casino related names seeing early strength: LVS +5.9% (completes pre-IPO financing), MGM +4.1%, WYNN +2.4%... Select solar names trading higher: STP +6.3%, SPWRA +2.2%, FSLR +1.9%, LDK +1.2% (announces it has entered into a framework agreement with Best Solar to cooperate on downstream photovoltaic projects)... Select oil/gas realted names showing strength: STO +3.6%, E +2.7%, PBR +2.0%, PTR +1.8%, SLB +1.7... Other news: OPXA +56.9% (reports additional 'favorable data' with Tovaxin for multiple sclerosis), HLCS +40.0% (sells multiple HeliScope Sequencers to RIKEN Institute), CYTR +23.7% (receives FDA letter regarding Arimoclomol Phase IIb clinical trial for ALS ), PLX +4.9% (FDA Grants Protalix Orphan Drug Designation for prGCD), GE +4.2% (GE says confident of winning China engine contract - Reuters; also upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), BA +2.2% (WTO finding bolsters Boeing's backers in Congress - WSJ)... Analyst comments: ERIC +4.8% (upgraded to Hold at Deutsche), WFR +3.9% (upgraded to Outperform at FBR), GPS +3.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), MU +3.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), VRUS +3.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), BRCM +3.3% (upgraded to Buy at Roth), SU +3.2% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), HOG +3.0% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Citigroup), COST +3.0% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), VMW +3.0% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman - Reuters), RHT +2.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman - Reuters), MET +2.0% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing guidance: WFR -1.6%... M&A news: KFT -5.7% (Kraft proposes combination with Cadbury Plc; Cadbury rejects proposal)... Other news: OSIR -37.4% (announces preliminary results for Prochymal Phase III GvHD trials; neither trial reached its primary endpoint), MCO -6.2% and MHP -3.1% (Moody's and MHP tick lower as Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn discusses the co's legal situation), AIG -3.7% (enters into agreement to sell asset management business, Reuters reported Chinatrust may raise more cash, mum on AIG Taiwan unit; also downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), ZINC -3.7% (filed for a 6 mln share common stock offering pursuant to an existing shelf)... Analyst comments: BYD -1.4% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan). -
Kusjuures Rev Shark on JPMi-poolset GE upgrade'i kommenteerimas väga tabavalt - nimelt sarnast mõttekäiku (turg tervikuna on tõusnud - ergo - need aktsiad, mis ei ole veel tõusnud, tõusevad hiljem järgi) on viimasel ajal tulnud lugeda ühe peamise põhjusena üha enamatest hinnasihi kergitamise analüüsidest.
GE has an upgrade this morning from JP Morgan. What is most interesting about the JP Morgan upgrade of GE this morning is the logic behind it which is that sentiment has lagged and the stock has room to the upside as it catches up with everything else that has already moved higher.
It reminds me a bit of the logic that was used during the bubble days in 1999-2000 where the logic often employed was that because one stock was priced at a certainly multiple then everything else should be priced similarly. -
Joel oskad öelda mis täna AAPL-ga uudist?
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Barclay kommenteerib positiivselt iPhone'i müüki Hiinas.
Via Briefing - Apple: Barclays sees 1 mln iPhones sold in China rather quickly, they believe China Mobile could also become an iPhone carrier eventually (170.31 ) Barclays remains their top pick given its new product pipeline & prospects for strong free cash flow. They believe the iPhone's prospects in China are solid. They estimate China Unicom (CHU -- 141 mln subscribers) can sell 1 mln iPhones rather quickly (500K within months); they believe sales in China could be in the multiple mlns over time. As the China Unicom agreement isn't exclusive, they believe China Mobile (CHL -- 500 mln subscribers) could also become an iPhone carrier eventually which would further boost iPhone sales over time. They believe non-GAAP EPS metrics could help support Apple shares given the even more attractive valuation when reversing iPhone accounting which subdues near-term earnings power.
Ning samal ajal on õhus kaameratega varustatud iPodide õigeaegne letile jõudmise küsimus:
AppleInsider reports just days before Apple is expected to unveil its new line of iPods, multiple reports are suggesting that some of the widely anticipated camera-equipped media players could be delayed due to technical difficulties. A person with a strong track record in predicting Apple's upcoming product launches recently told AppleInsider that the iPod maker has experienced technical problems (bad parts) with the cameras modules. The person said that it was uncertain whether the new hardware, which has been widely expected to debut at Wednesday's "Only rock and roll" media-centric event, would make the cut for early September retail distribution. -
ThomsonReutersi kolumnist D. Shahi tänane küsimus: "Kes tahab rahas olla?"
Now that the summer holiday is out of the way thoughts quickly turn toquarter-end and a desire to provide the right snapshot to investors. During Q1and even in the run-up to Q2 it was easy to argue that questions oversustainability/double-dip justified staying in cash. While the same argumentholds it is going to be a little harder to stick to the same script when riskassets have continued to rally. There will be a desire to show that theportfolio has not maintained an overweight bias toward cash and it is thisfactor that is helping to extend the rally on risk.
Joeli poolt toodud point, et "turg tervikuna on tõusnud - ergo - need aktsiad, mis ei ole veel tõusnud, tõusevad hiljem järgi" on lisaks analüütikutele ka fondijuhtide seas levinud ("teised saavad tõusust osa, peab ka rongile hüppama").
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JPMorgan tõstab Bank of America (BAC) hinnasihti $17.50 pealt $20.5 peale - valuatsioon, mille saavutamist pidasime võimalikuks ka juuli alguses Pro all ilmunud analüüsis, mil aktsia maksis veel $11.8, kuid paraku jäime tollal positsiooni sissevõtmisega liiga kauaks venitama.
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Joel Kas homme või nädala lõppuni oodatakse mingi tähtsaid uudiseid ka?
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Released on 9/8/2009 3:00:00 PM For July, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Consumer Credit - M/M change $-10.3 B $-4.0 B $-7.0 B to $-2.5 B $ -21.6 B -
Kolmapäeval on OPECi kohtumine, kus otsustatakse nafta tootmismahtude üle.
Neljapäeval on Initial Claims.
Aga üldiselt on makro poole pealt USAs üpriski vaikne nädal. -
Tänane kauplemispäev oli minu arust praegu kiirel pilgul vaadates kogu selle aasta kõige madalama käibega päev...
