Börsipäev 9. september
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09.09.09. Kombinatsiooniliselt väga ilus kuupäev iseenesest. Õnnitlused kõigile neile, kel sel päeval mõni pulmaskäik või sünnipäeva tähistamine ees.
Aga tuleme tagasi börside juurde. Nagu eile hilisõhtul ütlesin, oli eile USA börsidel kogu 2009. aasta madalaima käibega päev. Investorid on jätkuvalt äraootaval seisukohal, et kas turud on ikkagi suurema korrektsiooni lävel või ollakse taas kõrgemale rühkimas. Mina ise jään oma seisukohale kindlaks, et riski-tulu suhte poolest on atraktiivsem oodata paremat sisenemiskohta... kuid minu arvamuse kõrval leiab kahtlemata ka hulgaliselt teistsuguseid arvamusi ning iga investor peab ikkagi ise leidma enda vaadete ja ajahorisondiga sobivaima seisukoha ning vältima dogmasid.
Täna USA turgudel olulisi makrosündmusi tulemas ei ole. -
Aasias (v.a Hiinas) kukkus MSCI Asia Pacific viimase aasta tipu juurest täna allapoole ja Euroopas (mitte küll Tallinnas) on päev alanud ka väikse kasumivõtmisega.
Valuutaturul on EUR/USD 1.45 dollari juurde liikunud, mis on toorainete hindu kergitanud (kuld tõusnud $1000 dollari juurde). Siit tasemelt võib dollar veel langeda (ja kuld ülespoole liikuda), kui USA valitsuse võlakirjade nõudlus peaks ka ära kukkuma (oluline mida hiinlased & co teevad).
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Optimismist pakatavaid pealkirju pole igaljuhul keeruline leida (see-eest veebruaris-märtsis tuli neid tikutulega taga otsida). Näiteks Bloombergist võib lugeda sellise pealkirjaga üllitisi:
S&P 500 Moving Averages Show ‘Fierce’ Rally: Technical Analysis
Stocks Cheapest Since '89 Show Why Analysts Say Economists Wrong on Growth (siinkohal peaks isegi kõige paadunumal optimistil tekkima küsimus, et kas antud artikli pealkiri ja reaalsus ikka lähevad kokku või mitte. Kui S&P500 indeks oli 6 kuud tagasi 400 punkti odavam, kas siis ei olnud aktsiad odavamad kui täna...?)
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Bloombergis on tehtud intervjuu Barteliga Bank of Americast, kes ootab turgude 15% kuni 20%list langust ja ütleb, et makronäitajate paranemise ootuses on turg oma tõusu juba ära teinud ning et allapoole liikumise risk on oluliselt kasvanud. Link videole siin. Toormaterjalide (nafta, kuld jne) osas ollakse pullid, uskudes, et see sektor võtab finantssektorilt edaspidi liidrirolli üle.
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09.09.09 vajab veel tähistamist, kuna täna möödub kuus kuud 9. märtsist, mil aktsiaturud tegid põhja. S&P500 ja Stoxx600 on põhjast tõusnud ca 51% & DB strateeg J. Reid on täna väljas analüüüsiga „A 6 Month to Remember“:
"So outside of 1932/33, this will be the first time we have seen a 6-month period with a price move of greater than +50%."
"However most of the prior rallies found valuations still historically low at the end of the 6-month period. On a Shiller P/E basis this rally leaves us historically on the expensive side now."
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üle pika aja jälle väike üleöö jackpot enco 20k .2ga
osta valimatult kõike ja oota, miski teeb ikka 1000% -
Kui Euroopas oli tegu (taas) plusspäevaga, siis USA turud on alustamas päeva eilsete sulgumistasemete juurest.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.96%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.66%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.86%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.72%
Rootsi OMX 30 +1.10%
Venemaa MICEX +0.49%
Poola WIG +0.38%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.78%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.04%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.54%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.65%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.26%
Tai Set 50 +0.62%
India Sensex 30 +0.37% -
We Must Follow Price
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/9/2009 8:39 AM EDT
It is the theory that decides what can be observed.
-- Albert Einstein
My primary market theory for a while now has been that although there are many strong fundamental arguments for why the market should roll over, we can't be bearish until we have some confirmation in the form of negative price action. This market is disliked by many for lots of good reasons, but it continues to act well and has consistently recovered very quickly from any technical weakness. It doesn't matter much what our opinions might be if the market isn't reacting to them.
Given how many skeptics there are out there, this resilience shouldn't come as a big surprise. There is a huge contingent of folks who suffered badly in the market meltdown last year and early this year, and they have never been able to fully embrace this market that has gone almost straight up since March. The level of trust has been understandably low, as we have suffered the worst economy since the 1930s. As the market continues to move steadily higher despite this fact, the frustration of the underinvested has grown and provided substantial underlying technical support.
Plenty of folks are looking to buy pullbacks, not because they love this market and feel secure about its future but because they are tired of sitting on the sidelines and missing out on the persistent and powerful rally that doesn't seem at all concerned about the economic issues out there. This is a market that market players don't trust because of fundamental reasons, but they want to buy because of the price action.
The dilemma for those who don't want to be too bearish due to the positive price action is that there aren't many good entry points to be found. If you are waiting to buy a dip, you aren't seeing one, and if you are looking to buy right now, you aren't finding many good entry points because so many stocks are extended and have not consolidated gains.
The present technical situation of the major indices is a good example of the dilemma of this market. After showing signs of breaking down last week, we have bounced right back up on very light volume. This is the sort of bounce that technicians are distrustful of, but the market has frustrated anyone brave enough to try to short it. Time and again we go straight back up to recent highs after what looks like some signs that the trend is finally coming to an end.
I believe that at some point the many fundamental problems out there will matter and that we will see a substantial pullback, but until the price action confirms that view, I'm not going to act on it to any great degree. In fact, I'll be looking for long plays while the market continues to act in this manner.
This morning we have some slightly positive action on a number of analyst upgrades. It has been fairly dull trading lately, and we should start to see volume pick up and shake us up a bit.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RURL +17.5% (light volume), HITK +15.9%, TITN +14.2%, TLB +10.4%, CASY +8.4%, SB +6.8% (light volume), NATI +1.8% (light volume), MCHP +1.8%... M&A news: CLZR +38.3% (Candela to be acquired by Syneron Medical for $2.84/share in stock)... Select financial names showing strength: FIG +7.4% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays), ABB +3.1%, BX +2.3% (upgraded to Equal Weight at Barclays), COF +2.3% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), BCS +2.2%, S +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), RBS +2.0%, AIG +1.8%, AZ +1.3%, DB +1.1%... Select oil/gas names trading higher: TOT +2.1%, PBR +1.6% (discloses Guara formation test has been completed and has proved the very high productivity), RDS.A +1.6%, E +1.5%... Other news: ENCO +233% (announces new business awards of $8.7 mln, including swine flu (Influenza A H1N1 virus) vaccine trial win ), VVUS +52.0% (announces positive results from two Ph. 3 studies; patients on Qnexa achieve average weight loss up to 14.7% and improvements in co-morbidities), ISTA +14.0% (announces preliminary results of T-Pred studies and receives FDA approval for treatment of ocular itching due to allergies), XNN +11.6% (awarded $2 mln IDIQ contract by the U.S. Army), SRZ +11.4% (discloses amendments to Loan Agreements), XOMA +8.5% (and Arana Therapeutics Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Cephalon have entered into a collaboration), ARNA +5.6% (still checking; scheduled to present at Rodman Renshaw conference today), ETFC +3.0% (says Donald Layton to complete tenure as Chairman and CEO of E*TRADE at year's end), MATK +3.0% (Federal circuit rules in Martek's favor in appeal of patent infringement case), C +2.6% (still checking), AEM +1.8% (provides exploration update on 2009 activities), OXPS +1.5% and XTO +1.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: SNDK +3.2% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), STEC +2.7% (initiated with a Overweight at JP Morgan), JBLU +2.4% (upgraded to Buy at Argus), UPS +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), MEBAY +1.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein), TCK +1.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotia Capital), SYK +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ENWV -10.1% (light volume), RPT -9.4% (also announced a 9 mln share offering pursuant to its shelf registration statement), AVAV -6.0%, PBY -5.8%, ENTG -5.1% (also announced it commenced a 12 mln share common stock offering), UNFI -3.4% (light volume), MCD -2.2%, ALTR -1.7%... Other news: OPXA -11.7% (pulling back following yesterday's 270%+ surge higher), UWBK -10.1% (announces that it has commenced a public offering of $80 mln of common stock), VGZ -7.1% (announces 8 mln common share offering), HLCS -4.5% (pulling back following yesterday's 15%+ jump), EAC -3.6% (announced a 2.75 mln share common stock offering), RTI -3.5% (announces 5 mln share offering), LAZ -3.3% (announces certain shareholders of Lazard have agreed to sell 5,215,921 of their shares in an underwritten public offering), AEE -3.2% (announces a 19 mln share common stock offering), CREE -3.1% (announces it has commenced an 11 mln share common stock secondary offering), PAA -2.7% (priced a 4.6 mln share common stock offering at $46.70/share), CX -2.5% (announced that it commenced a global public offering of 1,200 mln of its Ordinary Participation Certificates), MYL -2.0% (parts ways with Chief Financial Officer Jolene Varney; also downgraded to Average at Caris & Company)... Analyst comments: BPOP -6.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley), PALM -5.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), DISH -3.1% (cut to Sell from Neutral at Goldman- Reuters), DD -1.7% (cut to Neutral from Buy, removed from Americas Buy list at Goldman- Reuters), MHP -1.3% (downgraded to Hold at Argus). -
Rosenberg taaskord tabavalt kommenteerimas aktsiaturgu ja selle valuatsiooni:
Okay, let's get this straight. We are now being told by the pundits that the reason why Mr. Market is managing to so readily shrug off adverse data is because Mr. Market is discounting “normalized” 2011 earnings of $80. That is behind the latest round of S&P 500 estimates of 1,200. After a momentous 50%+ surge from the lows, anything is certainly possible. But let's see if it makes sense. First, with household net worth down $14 trillion, employment down 7 million since the start of the recession and consumer credit down $110 billion from last year's peak, it would seem to us as though there are too many gaping holes to believe we are going to be seeing anything remotely close to “normalized” earnings any time soon. But even if that were the case, it would suggest that the market is trading near a 12x two-year forward multiple. Go back 80 years worth of data, and the mean two-year forward multiple is 7x. Too rich for our liking. -
Joel, viska palun see 2 year forward multiple graafik vs S&P500 ka siia üles, siis on kohe ilmekalt näha kas meanist ülespoole kaugenevad numbrid käivad käsikäes pulli- või karuturgudega :)
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Pole hetkel sellist graafikut käepärast. Ehk on kellelgi teisel midagi pakkuda...
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Joel! Mida arvad tänasest rapordist kell 21.00 ET järgi. Kui tõsiselt seda turgu mõjutab?
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Föderaalreservi Beeži raamatu sisul reeglina turgudele mõju ei ole.
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Seatud ja korra ka tõstetud hinnasihi täitusime tõttu sulgesime LHV Maailma Pro all Fuel Systemsi (FSYS) investeerimisidee.
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Joel! Selline tunne et Beeži raamat ikkagi mõjutas turgu!!!
