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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 10. september

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Globaalsed aktsiaturud on jätkanud oma märtsis alguse saanud võimsat rallit. Aasias oli laiapõhjaline tõus ning ka USA indeksite futuurid on eelturul ca 0.5% kuni 0.6% kõrgemal, olles 11 kuu kõrgeimate tasemete juures.

    Tund aega enne USA aktsiaturu avanemist teatatakse möödunud nädala esmaste töötu abiraha taotluste arv, millelt oodatakse 560 000 suurust näitu. Kestvad abiraha taotlused peaksid jääma 6.2 miljoni juurde.
  • Inglise keskpank otsustab kell 14.00, millisele tasemele jäävad intressimäärad. Suure tõenäosusega baasmäära ei muudeta (0.5%), kuid suuremat tähelepanu pälvib info võlakirjade ostuprogrammi osas. Eelmisel kohtumisel otsustati kõigi üllatuseks suurendada QE mahtu 50 miljardi naela võrra 175 miljardini, kuna keskpank polnud toona üksikute paranevate majandusindikaatorite põhjal valmis veel retsessioonile joont alla tõmbama. Tänaseks on nad jõudnud osta valitsuselt 140 miljardi väärtuses võlakirju ning Bloombergi küsitletud analüütikute arvates ei kavatseta programmi enam laiendada.
  • Sberbanki (SBER03) 2. kvartali puhaskasumiks kujunes 5.4 miljardit rubla, mis on konsensusootustest pisut enam. Netointressimarginaal laienes 1. kvartaliga võrreldes 0.7%punkti jagu.
  • Kui Intel tõstis oma majandusprognoose augusti lõpus siis eile valmistas positiivse üllatuse Texas Instruments, kergitades kolmanda kvartali aktsiakasumi prognoosi $0.29-0.39 pealt $0.37-0.41 peale (versus konsensuse 0.35 USD) ning müügitulude prognoosi $2.5-2.8 mld pealt $2.73-2.87 mld peale (konsensus 2.69 mld USD). Ettevõtte sõnul on põhjuseks klientide toodangumahtude kasv, kuid raske on selle põhjal järeldada kas see tuleneb tegelikust nõudluse paranemisest või seoses ettevalmistustega jõulumüügiks. Euroopa suurim pooljutide seadmete valmistaja ASML kaupleb Texase uudiste peale 6.2% plussis, STMicro +2.7%. Kuna TI on üks Nokia allhankijatest, võib prognooside tõstmine ka mobiiltelefonitootja tänase +1.6%-lise liikumise taga olla.
  • Hiinas oodatust paremini minevast automüügist on olnud palju juttu, aga panen selle kohta Deutsche Banki ühest viimasest analüüsist siia ka seda illustreeriva pildi:

  • BOE jättis samale tasemele nii intressimäära kui ka võlakirjade ostuprogrammi mahu. Seega võiksid viimaste kuude arengud olla piisavad, et veenda nüüd ka keskpanka Suurbritannia majanduse õiges suunas liikumises.
  • Uus-Meremaa jättis intressimäärad 2.50% peale. Kui juunis oli avalduses sees ka lause, et intressimäärad võivad minna veel madalamale, siis see lause on sealt nüüd ära võetud.
  • Korea Keskpank jättis intressimäärad rekordmadala 2.0% peale, kuid andis mõista, et on tõusvate kinnisvarahindade valguses valmis intressimäärasid kergitama. Regiooni katvad analüütikud on välja pakkunud novembrikuud kui esimese intressimäära kergitamise võimalusena. Võimalik, et Koreast saab esimene riik G20 riikidest, kes intresse ülespoole liigutama hakkab.
  • Blackstone raised to Conviction Buy from Buy by Goldman
  • JPM tõstab Apple'i (AAPL) aktsiasoovituse Market Perform pealt Outperform peale - hinnasihiks $200.

    Põhjused, miks JMP soovitust tõstab, on järgmised:

    1) The company continues to innovate and release impressive new products;
    2) margins are high and the brand appears untouchable;
    3) desktop Mac and MacBook sales have continued to grow market share;
    4) the company has sold over 30 mln iPhones at near $500 each, but has deferred a large portion of that and now has over $12 bln in deferred revenue;
    5) Y/Y revenue growth has accelerated recently; 6) the new video camera functionality may drive an iPod product cycle...
  • Eilne Apple'i konverents valmistas paljudele pettumuse ning kõik muu peale Jobsi üllatusliku etteaste pani veidi isegi haigutama. Oodatult sai Nano endale kaamera ning FM raadio, kuid iPod Touchi puhul piirduti vaid mälumahu ja operatsioonikiiruse tõstmisega. Paljuski keskenduti Touchi puhul selle rollile mängukonsoolina, mis tänu igapäevaselt täienevale mänguvalikule App Store's on Sonyle ja Nintendole kõvasti tuult alla teinud. Paljuräägitud iPod Touchi kaamera jäigi seekord kõigest spekulatsiooniks. Võimalik, et katse takerdus lihtsalt tehniliste probleemide taha, mis upgrade'i mõne kuu edasi lükkavad.
  • Initial Claims 550K vs 560K consensus, prior revised to 576K from 570K; Continuing Claims falls to 6.08 mln from 6.24 mln
  • dara, no ma ju räägin ostad mida iganes, paned 1005 kõrgemale orderi ja...
  • rams
    Millest jutt? Kas jahid penny-si?
  • Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX +0.32%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.12%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.42%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.09%
    Rootsi OMX 30 -0.82%
    Venemaa MICEX -0.27%
    Poola WIG -0.90%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.95%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng  +1.05%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.73%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine)  -0.15%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.92%
    Tai Set 50 +1.22%
    India Sensex 30 +0.21%

  • Skeptics Are Good Fuel for a Persistent Uptrend
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    9/10/2009 8:48 AM EDT

    Skepticism, like chastity, should not be relinquished too readily.
    -- George Santayana

    The most notable attribute of this market recently has been its persistent strength in the face of a very high level of skepticism. While most investors acknowledge that our economic situation has stabilized and may even be slowly improving, few seem to believe that conditions are as positive as the market action is indicating.

    The explanation for why the market has stayed so strong even though there is so much skepticism is that the bailouts and economic stimulations have created a huge amount of liquidity that has few places to go but into equities. That has created persistent strength and very strong underlying support that continually sucks in folks who are sitting on the sidelines, fretting about being left behind.

    However, just because the skeptics have been wrong for a long time doesn't mean they won't eventually be correct. Like all things in the market, it is a matter of timing, and the likelihood is that at some point the worries and concerns that are on the minds of many will start to matter, selling will kick in and then feed on itself.

    In the meantime, those skeptics serve as a constant source of fuel for the market. They are squeezed when they try to press shorts and are chasing things higher as they worry about being left behind once again.

    The dilemma for investors who are trying to be flexible and open-minded is that it is tough to completely embrace the positive market action when there is so much skepticism swirling about. It is even tougher when the chart action is so confounding. We have consistently gone straight back up to new highs after some technical damage was done. That just isn't textbook action, and it has made for tough trading if you are using technical analysis as a guide.

    So we have a market being bolstered by an artificial infusion of cash, a high level of skepticism and a persistent uptrend. We'd be foolish not to have some doubts about how much more this market can run, but until there is a shift in the character of the action, the skepticism needs to say on the back burner.

    Meredith Whitney is on CNBC this morning and sounding quite bearish overall. She says October will be a month of reckoning, that home prices have another leg down and that bank fundamentals have not improved. She helped to trigger the big run that started in July with bullish comments about Goldman Sachs (GS) , so it will be interesting to see if the market reacts to her comments today.

    We have quiet action in the early going. We moved up slightly on the weekly unemployment claims, but there isn't much movement overall. We have significant technical overhead at the year-to-date high for the S&P 500 at 1039. We have already made a new closing high but have yet to breach that intraday high, which is the level everyone is watching.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NCS +22.7%, SWHC +12.3%, SHFL +8.6%, TRMA +8.6% (also awarded $50 mln in contracts), LULU +6.4%, SWKS +6.2% (also tgt raised to $15 at Kaufman following raised guidance on continued strong momentum), ASML +3.9%, WMB +3.5%... Select European drug names showing strength: SHPGY 2.9%, AZN +1.0%... Select financial names showing strength: IRE +4.6%, AIB +3.5%, ABB +2.2%, FIG +2.1%, ING +1.7%, CS +1.6%... Select airline names trading higher boosted by analyst comments: UAUA +12.6% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), LCC +8.9% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), AMR +5.0%, DAL +4.4%, CAL +2.7%... Other news: DVAX +71.4% (reports FDA removes clinical hold on HEPLISAVTM Phase 3 Hepatitis B Vaccine), RNWK +14.1% (Apple does US music deal with Real Networks - The New Zealand Herald), OCLS +11.7% (receives Medicare HCPCS code for reimbursement of Microcyn skin & wound hydrogel), VICL +10.7% (Influenza vaccine demonstrates cross-reactivity against California, Texas and Mexico H1N1 strains), KONG +7.4% (has entered into a strategic relationship with CCTV.com), CPE +6.6% (still checking), ZOLT +5.3% (Announces New Wind Energy Development Alliance with Global Blade Technology), DPTR +5.0% (continued momentum from yesterday's 30%+jump), DIVX +4.7% (signs license agreement with Panasonic for next-generation DivX Plus HD technology), YRCW +3.5% (provides update on ratification of labor contract changes), STM +2.3% (still checking), RGR +1.8% (up in sympathy with SWHC), SNPS +1.8% (increases stock repurchase authorization to $500 million)... Analyst comments: TLB +6.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup and upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Jaffray), BX +5.5% (raised to Conviction Buy from Buy by Goldman- DJ), STAR +3.1% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays), RSH +3.1% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), FSLR +2.6% (initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital), YHOO +2.3% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill), TWX +2.2% (hearing early strength attributed to tier 1 firm adding to Buy List), NE +1.8% (initiated with a Perform at Oppenheimer), XRX +1.6% (upgraded to Buy at Brean Murray), LAZ +1.3% (raised to Conviction Buy from Buy by Goldman Sachs - DJ), TIF +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MON -7.9%, NAV -7.5%, MW -4.3%... Select ag/chem related names showing weakness following MON guidance: MOS -2.8%, IPI -1.4%, TRA -1.4%, SYT -1.3%, POT -1.3%, AGU -1.2%... Other news: PLAB -8.6% (announces offering of 6,275,000 shares of its common stock and $50,000,000 convertible senior notes maturing in 2014), HITK -4.3% (discloses receipt of subpoena in last night's 10-Q), RDN -3.7% (Third Avenue Management discloses 0.0% stake in 13G filing, down from 14.32% on 2/13), CSTR -3.7% (announces offering of $175 mln in convertible senior notes), XL -3.2% (still checking), NPBC -2.6% (prices a 26.7 mln share common stock offering at $5.25/share), AIG -2.5% (Greenberg says in CNBC interview that "I would be glad to offer my advice to Benmosche but I won't be going back to AIG"), SNH -1.9% (announces 4.5 mln common share offering), AEE -1.7% (prices 19.0 mln common shares at $25.25/share), CNP -1.7% (announces public offering of 21 mln shares), ... Analyst comments: AMAG -2.9% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), ERTS -1.8% (cut to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs - DJ), LVS -1.5% (initiated with a Sell at Citigroup), CAH -1.4% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), SF -1.0% (cut to Neutral from Conviction Buy by Goldman Sachs - DJ).
  • Pidu turgudel esialgu veel jätkumas -> AIG juba +1% visanud.
  • AIG liikumistel vist alla 10% päeva sees üldse äramärkimist ei väärigi.
  • Sector ETF strength & weakness through the first hour of traidng

    Leading Sector ETFs:
    US airlines- FAA +6%, Nat gas- UNG +3.5%, Solar power- TAN +2%, KWT +2%, Reg banks- KRE +2%, Gold miners- GDX +1.5%, Crude/WTI okl- USO +1%, OIL +1%, iShares transports- IYT +1%, Oil HLDRS- OIH +1%, Silver- SLV +1%, US bonds- TLT +1%

    Lagging Sector ETFs:
    Base metals- DBB -3%, Ag/chem- MOO -1.5%, Coal- KOL -1%, Comm banks- KBE -1%, iShares REITS/real estate- ICF -.5%, IYR -.5%, Basic mat- XLB -1%, Insurers- KIE -.5%, Finance- XLF -.5%, IYF -.5%

  • Jällegi üks põhjus miks ülespoole rühkida:

    Rumor Roundup

    Like yesterday, bears had control for the first 15 minutes of trading this morning. And similarly, as the market began to bounce around 9:45, rumors began circulating on a handful of stocks. The focus of rumors continues to be takeovers, and while many rumors circulate and the validity of the source of these rumors can be questionable, the speculation may increase volatility in the near term. Today's biggest mover so far has been Biomarin Pharma (BMRN 17.08 +0.64), it is up ~$0.60 (4%) on a rumor that Genzyme (GENZ 53.39 -0.41) was interested in buying BMRN for $28/share. We note the two companies already have a joint venture to develop and market Aldurazyme... Time Warner Cable (TWC 39.58 +0.31)ticked higher as a Comcast (CMCSA 16.96 +0.11)-for-Time Warner Cable rumor made the rounds, which stems from this morning's Citigroup comments which suggested the two should merge... Lastly, talk that Warren Buffet would increase his stake in USG Corp (USG 15.15 +0.45) sent that stock higher. Warren Buffet currently holds roughly 17 mln shares of USG (according to the latest June 30th filing), and we'd note that short interest is high at 15% of USG's float, which can add to momentum.

  • Sector ETF strength & weakness @ midday

    Leading Sector ETFs:
    US airlines- FAA +5%, Nat gas- UNG +5%, Solar power- TAN +3%, KWT +2.5%, Gold miners- GDX +3%, Reg banks- KRE +2%, SPDRS metals/mining- XME +2%, Silver- SLV +1.5%, Ag commods- DBA +1.5%, Steel- SLX +1.5%, iShares transports- IYT +1.5%, Oil HLDRS- OIH +1%, Energy- XLE +1%, IYE +1%, iShares telecom- IYZ +1%, Livestock commods- COW +1%, US bonds- TLT +1%

    Lagging Sector ETFs:
    Base metals- DBB -2.5%, RBOB gas futures- UGA -2%, Ag/chem- MOO -1.5%, Heating oil futures- UHN -1.5%, Comm banks- KBE -1%, Coal- KOL -.5%

  • US Treasury's Geithner says shifting strategy from rescuing economy to preparing for future growth - Reuters
    Says must wind down some of the extraordinary support put in place for financial system. Extent of damage means recovery to be gradual but economy now 'back from the brink.' Unlikely to need more bank bailout money so pulling a contingency provision out of budget.
  • 30-year Bond Auction Results: Yield 4.23% (4.289% expected); Bid/Cover 2.92x (6-auction avg 2.36x); Indirect Bidders 46.5% (6-auction avg 43.4%)
  • White House says stimulus package added roughly 2.3 pct points to real U.S. GDP growth in Q2, likely to add more in Q3 - Reuters
    Ja turg üha uutesse tippudesse:)
  • S&P500 indeks puudutas ka augustikuu lõpus tehtud viimase 11 kuu tipu 1039 ära. Tänane püsiv ostusurve meenutab üha enam ja enam märtsis nähtud püsivat müügisurvet. Kauplejatele võib selline olukord ju meeldida, pikaajalistele investoritele tõenäoliselt mitte, sest kõrgele tõusnud aktsiahinnad jätavad järgi väga vähe aktsiaid, millesse uusi atraktiivseid investeeringuid mõistliku hinnataseme pealt veel teha saab.
  • Mis toimub UNG-ga, kas keegi seletaks?
  • urm, NYMEXil on maagaasi hind ainuüksi tänase päevaga ca 15% tõusnud ning see on saatnud ka UNG lendu. Maagaasi hinnaliikumine on oluliselt volatiilsem nafta omast, seda olen korduvalt rõhutanud ning just seetõttu sobib UNG instrument lühiajaliseks kauplemiseks, kuigi preemial NAVi suhtes tasuks silm teraselt peal hoida. Pikaajaliseks investeerimiseks, nagu ikka, aga maagaasiettevõtted nagu näiteks meie valik CHK. Maagaasi tänase hinnaralli põhjuseks oli oodatust veidi väiksem varude kasv ning lühikeste positsioonide paaniline katmine.
  • UNG käive küll paanilist lühikeste katmist ei näita, pigem jääb põhjuseks see esimene argument
  • arvon, ma mõtlesin lühikesi positsioone maagaasi futuurides...

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