Börsipäev 15. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Täna kell 15.30 teatatakse USA augustikuu tootjahinnaindeksi muutus (ootus +0.8% ja tuumikosalt +0.1%), jaemüügi muutus (cash for clunkers programmi tõttu oodatakse siin +2.0%list numbrit, kuid olulisem selle kõrval jaemüük ilma autodeta, millelt oodatakse 0.4%list kasvu).
Aasias oli suhteliselt kirju päev, Euroopa on alustanud nullis. -
Nagu näha, siis on Treasury mõlgutamas Citigroupi (C) päästmise ajal veebruaris eelisaktsiate tavaaktsiateks konverteerimise läbi hinnaga $3.25 omandatud 34%lise ettevõtte osaluse mahamüümise mõtteid. Asjaosaliste sõnul plaanitakse 7.7 miljardit aktsiat maha müüa järgmise 6-8 kuu jooksul ning müükidega võidakse algust teha juba oktoobris. Ehk et siis kui kellelgi on suuremat ostuorderit vaja täita, siis teate, et võib Treasury poole pöörduda : )
Aga samas, mida võime sellistest mõtetest välja lugeda? Kas Treasury arvates on common stocki hind tõusnud õiglasele tasemele või isegi üle selle, et juba osalust müüma hakatakse?
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Augustis kasvas uute autode registreerimine Euroopa Liidus 3.3%, mis oli kolmas järjestikune positiivne kuu. Suuresti on aga numbreid moonutamas valitsuste programmid Lääne-Euroopas, sest kui näteks Saksa automüük kerkis eelmisel kuul 28.4%, Prantsusmaa 7%, Suurbritannia 6%, siis paljudes Ida-Euroopa riikides kahanes näitaja mulluse baasil üle 50%.
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August Retail Sales ex-auto +1.1% vs +0.4% consensus, prior revised to -0.5% from -0.6%
August Retail Sales +2.7% vs +1.9% consensus, prior revised to -0.2% from -0.1%
August Core PPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.1% consensus
August PPI M/M 1.7% vs +0.8% consensus
September Empire Manufacturing 18.88 vs 15.00 consensus, prior 12.08 -
Näidud on igaljuhul korralikud ning nii Euroopa indeksid kui ka USA futuurid liikusid selle peale ca 0.3% kuni 0.5% ülespoole.
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Eilne ja tänane ralli maagaasiturul on aidanud UNGl valutult ca 16%line preemia paari kauplemispäevaga pea olematuks teha. Kui eilse päeva lõpu seisuga küündis preemia 6.9%ni, siis praegu juba on on maagaas 5.5% plussis, UNG eelturul +4%, mis tähendab, et preemia väheneb veelgi (ca 5% juurde) ning seeläbi on instrumendiga kauplejate jaoks vähenenud võimalikud negatiivsed üllatusliikumised, mis NAVist eemal kauplemisega paratamatult seotud.
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Elvis is alive!, LEHMQ.PK volume eile 68 mln
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Et siis ei ole ainult prognooside tõstmised, vaid mõned ikka veel langetavad ka:
Nucor sees Q3 EPS of ($0.15)-($0.20) vs ($0.02) First Call consensus
NUE Nucor guides Q3 below consensus -
USA futuurid on jaemüügi oodatust paremate augustikuu näitude peale praeguseks hetkeks tehtud 0.5%lise hüppe juba peaaegu käest andnud ning kaubeldakse eilsete sulgumistasemete juures.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.25%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.80%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.69%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.13%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.48%
Venemaa MICEX +2.75%
Poola WIG +0.57%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.15%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.31%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.23%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.62%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.89%
Tai Set 50 +1.40%
India Sensex 30 +1.48% -
Same Song, Different Day
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/15/2009 7:52 AM EDT
Part of courage is simple consistency.
-- Peggy Noonan
As I write this morning, I'm struck by how complacent the attitude about this market seems to be. Even the bears, who have been quite vocal lately about all the troubling economic conditions, seem resigned to the idea that the bulls are firmly in control and not backing off quickly.
I'm becoming a bit tired of repeating the same general theme, but nothing much is changing. We have very strong momentum, very persistent and substantial dip-buying and plenty of skepticism that helps to create a "wall of worry." Other than being a little extended, the technical conditions remain very strong.
Once again we have a little minor weakness indicated in the early going, which means we'll probably ramp up the rest of the day. That certainly has been the pattern lately as we have been up six of the last seven days and closed solidly higher than we opened on five of those days.
Market players are very aware of such patterns, and the more consistently they occur, the more likely they will continue to occur. They become self-fulfilling to a large degree and are another reason prevailing trends tend to be so stubbornly strong.
The big danger comes when market players become overly confident in the repetition of a pattern and then suddenly find themselves out of position when things suddenly change. This causes a rush to reposition and helps accelerates the reverse that is beginning to occur.
At present, there aren't any signs that the market is on the brink of a reversal. Yes, we are extended and in need of a rest after the strong move up over the past seven days, but one thing we can be very sure of is that there are going to be plenty of folks lurking about waiting to buy a pullback. Buying dips has worked so consistently well that we can hardly pull back at all before the buyers show up. It is going to take more than a few failures of this strategy before market players give up on it.
There is a great temptation to try to anticipate a turning point in this market, but that has been the case for months now and has failed miserably as a trading strategy. It is very hard to resist the temptation to argue with this market and just embrace the long side, but that is what is working -- and doing what is working until it stops working is generally the best approach to the market.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AIM +15.6%, SYMX +5.8% (light volume), SOA +5.4%, CBRL +2.5%, PLL +2.0%, ITW +1.8%, LZ +1.2%... M&A news: PLLL +9.9% (announces it has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by an affiliate of Apollo Global Management for approx $483 mln), GLS +2.2% (said that it is in discussions with another party concerning a possible M&A transaction), CYCL +1.9% (Centennial Comms and AT&T update anticipated completion date of pending CYCL acquisition)... Select European fiancials ticking higher: IRE +4.2%, AIB +3.0%... Other news: LXRX +35.8% (completes Phase 1 clinical trial and initiates Phase 2 clinical trial of LX4211 in patients with type 2 diabetes), PTEK +12.4% (announces debt conversion; transaction strengthens balance sheet, eliminates $1.2 mln of debt), BCRX +11.8% (announces partnerships for Peramivir for influenza outside the U.S.), MSO +9.5% (Home Depot to launch exclusive Martha Stewart Living brand), YRCW +8.1% (still checking), NXG +6.9% (Significant extension of mineralization discovered at Northgate Minerals' Fosterville Gold Mine), PARD +3.0% (announces pivotal Phase 3 SPEAR trial evaluating picoplatin in small cell lung cancer Event Target; event enables overall survival analysis of registration SPEAR trial), ETFC +2.8% (reports August DARTs increased 18.3% from July; Provides updates to loan delinquencies), ELN +2.8% (Cures Breach of Tysabri Collaboration Agreement and Amends Terms of Transaction with Johnson & Johnson), ZOOM +2.4% (continued strength from yesterday's 200%+surge higher)... Analyst comments: XRX +10.7% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays), TER +5.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer), EQIX +4.5% (upgraded to Strong Buy from Buy at Needham), EBAY +4.3% (upgraded to Buy at Kaufman), CBS +3.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo), RCL +3.4% (reinstated coverage with Buy at BofA/Merrill), YHOO +3.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein), AET +2.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at FTN Equity), WDC +2.1% (initiated with Buy at UBS), NOK +2.0% (upgraded to Reduce from Sell at WestLB), CCL +1.7% (reinstated coverage with Buy at BofA/Merrill and upgraded to Buy at Argus), CBE +1.7% (transferred with an Outperform at Wells Fargo), STX +1.5% (initiated with Buy at UBS), OSIP +1.1% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell by Goldman- DJ), POM +1.0% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: COOL -10.1% (light volume), KR -4.8%, NUE -2.6%... Select iron/steel names ticking lower following NUE guidance: AKS -2.1%, STLD -1.3%, X -0.9%, SCHN -0.5% (light volume)... Select grocery related names trading lower following KR results: SWY -3.5%, SVU -2.0%... Other news: LGCY -6.8% (prices public offering of 3.3 mln units at $15.85/unit), SFD -6.0% (announces a public offering of $250 mln of its common shares), CUZ -5.8% (announces 32 mln common share offering), GRT -5.0% (announces modification and extension of credit facility through December of 2011, agreement to sell Lloyd Center for $192 mln), SXCI -4.3% (discloses 3.5 mln share offering), ING -3.3% (EU's ING probe into Dutch state support extended - DJ), C -2.7% (Explores Bid to Pare U.S. Stake - WSJ), DFS -2.5% (reports August Net Charge-offs of 9.16% vs 8.43% in July; total August Delinquency rate of 5.35% vs 5.28% in July ), SNV -2.6% (announces a capital plan pursuant to which the Company will undertake initiatives expected to increase its Tier 1 capital by approximately $400 mln)... Analyst comments: MDCO -3.0% (downgraded to Underperform at Wedbush Morgan), ARNA -2.4% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Rodman and Renshaw), FLIR -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), UBS -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas). -
ArcelorMittal (MT) sai upgrade, ei tea, kas läheb NUE, X, AKS jne järele?
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otsin juba teist päeva,aga no EI MÄLETA-eelmisel aastal sattusin lk kus sai erinevate kriteeriumite järgi pikki nimekirju vaadatud(suurimd tõusjad,langejad,päeva ja aasta lõikes ja käibe jne järgi...)no ei mäleta....kas keegi oskab aidata?vabandan juba ette,aga olen blondiin...
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ei olnud see,lisan naiseliku iseloomustuse-rohelise raamiga oli graafik,aga tänud sellegi eest!KUI ÄKKI kellelgi meenub.....!
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Kas siis see:
http://finviz.com/ -
Barclay's Financial Conference-il täna üsna paljud finantsid sõna võtmas. Keegi midagi uut ei rääkinud aga 1 ühine nimetaja, mida kõik kaljukindlalt väidavad on see, et kellegi pole enam lisakapitali vaja. Mu meelest üsna optimistid. Ja üleshinnatud junk on samuti 2007 aasta "küll me maha müüme" veendumusega ülespoole upitatud. Kas astutakse samasse ämbrisse?
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C juba alla $4.20 kuigi turg tegi hetk tagasi uue tipu, AIG samuti raske -5.50% ja $38.80 tasemel.
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Kas siit tasemelt pigem AIG nüüd pikem sõit alla? Mida rahvas arvab?
