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Börsipäev 18. september

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  • Kuigi eile oli USAs esimene börsipäev, mil suured indeksid viimase 10 päeva jooksul negatiivsust näitasid, jäi miinus veel vaid marginaalseks. Täna majandusuudiseid tulemas ei ole, kuid optsioonireede on see-eest kauplemist mõjutamas.

    Eile pärast turu sulgemist teatas oma kvartalitulemused Palm (PALM), kelle suhtes oli tänu paljuräägitud nutitelefoni Pre populaarsuse tõttu kõrged ootused. EPSi näidati -$0.10 vs oodatud -$0.25 ning müügitulu $360.7 vs oodatud $290.7. Kuigi kasumisse veel ei jõutud, suudeti ametlikke ootusi korralikult ületada.
  • Täna hommikul on energiasektoris naftaettevõtte Interoil (IOC) katmist alustanud overweight soovituse ja turuhinnast 88% kõrgema hinnasihiga Morgan Stanley. Hinnasihiks on pakutud $65, mis eeldab pikaajalist naftahinda $85 ning kui pikaajaline naftahind peaks jääma $95 juurde, ei välistata ka aktsiale $100list õiglast väärtust. Eilne sulgumishind oli ca $34.6, seega hinnasihid on võimsalt üle turuhinna.

    Initiating coverage of InterOil at Overweight with a12-month price target of $65. IOC’s business model has matured as interest in the story has waned. We see compelling risk/reward and believe IOC is poised for amajor transformation — from a volatile, and often controversial, exploration-focused integrated oil company to a global LNG player with significant exploration upside in Papua New Guinea (PNG). We see $5/share of value for existing downstream operations, with a call option on successful LNG development worth $60/share ($30 upside from currentshare price). Our price target offers 88% upside, and we see upside potential to our target as elements of the story derisk over time.

    We think capital markets do not fully value:

    1) Potential of IOC’s discovered resource. We estimate in excess of 6Tcfe gas and 75MMbbls liquid.

    2) Potential for resource monetization. IOC is in the final phases of due diligence with several companies on an upstream partnership and LNG venture;

    3) Exploration upside. We have a favorable view of current drilling potential of the Antelope-2 well and exploration potential in PNG.

    4) Refining upside. We see refining upside for IOC as a niche refiner levered to economic growth in PNG.

    IOC upgrade'i on täna välja toomas ka notablecalls, kes usub, et MSi upgrade peaks aitama aktsial korralikult ülespoole liikuda ja teha seda veel mitme järgmise nädala jooksul.

  • Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX +0.27%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.22%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.23%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.29%
    Rootsi OMX 30 -0.12%
    Venemaa MICEX +0.85%
    Poola WIG -0.09%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.70%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng  -0.67%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -3.20%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine)  -1.64%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.64%
    Tai Set 50 +0.56%
    India Sensex 30 +0.18%

  • Too Much Anticipation
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    9/18/2009 7:58 AM EDT

    Such is the state of life, that none are happy but by the anticipation of change: the change itself is nothing; when we have made it, the next wish is to change again.
    -- Samuel Johnson

    After a furious rise over the last nine days, the market paused in its ascent on Thursday. The indices ended in just slightly negative territory, but it was enough to stall the breathless bullishness that has been dominating the market for the past two weeks.

    The bears and underinvested bulls are hopeful that this pause is a sign that momentum is not only beginning to slow but is about to reverse. We all know the market has become quite overbought technically and is in need of a rest, consolidation or pullback.

    So should we declare that a top is in, sell all our positions and head for the sidelines? Should we start anticipating the correction that is sure to eventually occur?

    While it is always a good idea to take some profits into a strong market, there isn't a compelling reason yet to be aggressively bearish. Extended markets like we have now can correct that condition by simply churning or rotating internally. There is no reason to anticipate a sudden collapse even though we are in very lofty territory.

    The best way to measure this market's health is to keep a close watch on the action when it dips. The dip-buying has been some of the most tenacious I've ever seen, and that's because so many people never embraced the market after going through the worst market and economy that they have ever seen. Almost no one expected that we would have such a big and sustained "V"-shaped bounce. It has been a constant struggle for many to try to gain long exposure when the market never paused long enough to allow for gradual accumulation of favorite stocks.

    I don't want to sound overly bullish, as I do think we are going to eventually see a significant market pullback, but I also don't want to make the mistake of being too quick to anticipate a breakdown. The market is extended and vulnerable, but it still has not done anything really negative. As I keep saying, the dip-buyers are a very persistent group right now and until they relent, the downside is likely to be limited.

    We need to stay vigilant and monitor the action closely, but we don't want to anticipate the future too much. There is still positive action to be found, and we can profit from it while we wait and watch for the bears to prove that they really do have some ammunition.

    We have another flat open on the way. The pattern lately has been a flat open followed by a little nervous selling in the first hour or so before the dip-buyers jump in and take us back to the highs of the day.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: UFI +8.5%, IHS +1.3%... Select European drug names ticking higher: SNY +1.9%, GSK +1.1%... Select casino related names showing strength: MGM +3.8%, LVS +1.8%, WYNN +1.2%... Other news: BPFH +20.6% (to Sell Gibraltar Private Bank & Trust for $93 Million; upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette), EROC +6.8% (announces receipt of proposal from Natural Gas Partners), TRIT +6.6% (continued strength), STV +3.9% (selected by China Satellite Mobile Broadcasting Corporation to provide CA systems to mobile TV networks), SXCI +3.4% (prices 4.5 mln common share offering at $41.50/share), VVUS +3.1% (prices 9.0 mln common share offering at $10.50/share), CMED +2.9% (announces $30 mln share repurchase program), C +2.5% (Citigroup eyes spinning off oil trading unit - Financial Times), RRC +2.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), WNR +1.9% (still checking), NVS +1.5% (receives FDA approval for Valturna, a single-pill combination of valsartan and aliskiren, to treat high blood pressure)... Analyst comments: ELOS +8.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), ETFC +8.2% (raised to Buy from Neutral by Goldman- DJ), IOC +8.2% (initiated with Overweight at Morgan Stanley), KBH +6.6% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), BYD +6.1% (upgraded to Buy at Argus), MDRX +5.8% (upgraded to Overweight at Piper), SNDK +4.3% (upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill), TOL +3.1% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), ARST +2.3% (initiated with Outperform at William Blair), PG +1.8% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), SBUX +1.6% (upgraded to Overweight at Piper), DAI +1.0% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PALM -1.5% (also filed for a 16 mln share common stock offering)... Other news: CLUB -21.4% (discloses SEC advised that a formal order of private investigation had been issued), ARNA -10.0% (reports top-line results from the BLOSSOM trial), FSP -9.1% (prices 8.0 mln common share offering at $13.00/share), GGC -7.4% (approved an amendment increasing the number of authorized shares of common stock to 100 mln), NMM -6.1% (prices its 2.8 mln share common stock offering at $12.21/share), HEAT -4.1% (prices public offering of 7,246,087 shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $9.00 per share), HBAN -2.4% (announces a $350 mln public offering of common stock and completion of current discretionary equity issuance program), DVR -2.3% (announces that the previously disclosed secondary offering of ~20.6 mln shares of its common stock by Helix Energy Solutions was priced at $10.00/share), DLM -1.7% (announces pricing of $450 mln senior subordinated note offering)... Analyst comments: ATHN -4.5% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Auriga), IMAX -3.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Merriman), SONC -3.7% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), SCHW -3.3% (cut to Sell from Neutral by Goldman- DJ), UNH -1.2% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), CVH -1.0% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup).
  • Kes S&P500 futuuride liikumist jälgib, siis tänase börsipäeva algusega lõppesid ära septembrikuu futuurid ning futuuride kajastamisel lähme nüüd edasi detsembrikuu peale üle.
  • Paistab, et optituru tegijad pressisid ise hoopis turgu üles. Kui see nii on siis esmaspäeval saab päris huvitav olema:)

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