Börsipäev 21. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Täna teatatakse pool tundi pärast USA turgude avanemist augustikuu juhtivad indikaatorid, millelt oodatakse 0.7%list kasvu - juulis oli see 0.6.% Oodatust suurem kasv aitaks toetada pullide argumente aktsiate soetamisel, kuid ootustele allajääv näit seevastu suurendaks muresid majanduskasvu taastumise kiiruse suhtes.
Aasia turud olid täna valdavalt nullis, väikese kaldega miinuspoolele. S&P500 futuurid on hetkel -0.15%. -
Kuigi Bloombergis on täna pikk artikkel sellest, kuidas välisinvestorid jätkuvalt USA kasvavat võlakoormat - ja sel aastal on see kasvanud 3 korda kiiremini kui eelmine aasta - finantseerivad (sel aastal on välisinvestorid ostnud 43% USA võlast, eelmisel aastal oli see 27%), siis samal ajal on võimalik kuulata intervjuud Fergusoniga, kes usub, et USA võlakirjad on aga oma atraktiivsust kaotamas ning usub, et Hiinast võib oma reservide diversifitseerimise tulemusena saada USA võlakirjade müüja ja mitte ostja juba 2010. aastal. Või nagu Ferguson ise ütleb - Hiina ja Ameerika abielu ehk Chimerica on tasapisi karidele jooksmas, mis toob USA jaoks jõuga kaasa kõrgemad intressid.
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Nafta on kauplemas $71-$72 juures. Samas üha enam ja enam investoreid on panustamas musta kulla hinnalangusele, ostes selleks müügioptsioone - müügi- ja ostuoptsioonide volatiilsuse vahe on tõusnud juba aga üle 10 protsendipunkti. Bloomberg on sellel teemal täna välja andnud ka pikema artikli. Kui seni on naftahinna tõusu aidanud nõrgenenud dollar, siis kui see peaks taas tugevnema hakkama, survestaks see tõepoolest ka energia hindasid.
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Panen siia paar põnevat graafikut rahaturufondide kohta:
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BTW 18. septembril peaks lõppema US rahaturufondidele tähtajaliselt antud riiklik garantii, see võib juba fondide mahte vähendada
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Mis me sellest järeldada võiksime? Raha on läinud mujale seiklema? Kuhu? Aktsiatesse?
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See garantii kehtib siis rahapaigutustele, mis on tehtud fondi varem kui 18. september 2008. Samas, minu arvates on olukord maailma majanduses sedavõrd stabiliseerunud, et rahaturufondide likviidsushätta jäämise oht peaks olema oluliselt vähenenud. Ehk isegi kui investoril tekib kahtlus oma rahaturufondi kvaliteedi osas, on tal võimalik oma raha viia lihtsalt teise kvaliteetsema halduri juurde ja kokkuvõttes peaks maht samaks jääma. Seega eelkõige võiks põhjuseks olla ikkagi raha liikumine rahaturufondidest aktsiaturgudele, riigivõlakirjaturgudele ja korporatiivvõlakirja turgudele.
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http://ap3.ee/Default2.aspx?ArticleID=47d9043f-cbef-4837-b857-2b43a88aed22&ref=lastadd
natuke lepiku tegemistest juttu -
vahepeal on vist ka hulgaliselt rahaturufonde uksed sulgenud - eriti neid, kus rahaturufondi sildi all võeti hoopis kõrgemaid riske
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Kohustuslikku lugemist...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6211872/Debt-deflation-laboratory-of-the-Baltics.html -
vastus http://www.tarkinvestor.ee/foorum/viewtopic.php?t=2248
ÄP on kõva uudisega maha saanud :) -
Krt, olete ikka laisad küll! Võikite ju copyda või paari sõnaga öelda, millest jutt.
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ÄP - KL vassib ja varjab
KL - ÄP kirjutab mida tahab, miski ei huvita -
Goldman Sachs on täna sekkumas Hiina lennuoperaatorite käekäigu kommenteerimisse. USA turul kauplevad China Southern Airlines (ZNH) tõstetakse 'neutraalse' pealt 'osta' peale. China Eastern Airlines'i (CEA) peetakse juba turu poolt ülehinnatuks ning aktsiate katmist alustatakse 'müü' soovitusega. Goldman Sachs usub, et aktsiaturg on CEA ja Shanghai Airlinesi vahelisi hiljutise ühinemise loodetavaid sünergiaid juba üle hindamas.
ZNH õiglase hinnana näeb Goldman Sachs USA börsil $19.23 (ehk turuhinnaga võrreldes +18.1%) ja CEA'l $25.64 (ehk turuhinnaga võrreldes -38.5%).
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Dell (DELL) ostab IT-teenuste ettevõtte Perot Systemsi (PER) ning maksab ettevõtte eest $3.9 miljardit ehk $30 aktsiast. See on üle 65% preemiat võrreldes reedese sulgumishinnaga ning tegu on aktsia viimase 10 aasta kõrgeima hinnaga.
$30 aktsiast tähendab, et DELL maksab PERi eest 30.5x 2009. aasta oodatavat kasumit ja 29x 2010. aasta kasumit. Kallivõitu?
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kas keegi kommenteeriks DPTK -d
jube langus,mis põhjused? -
Briefing on Meredith Whitney 32-leheküljelise pühapäevase raporti ühe lausega kokku võtnud:
Meredith Whitney Advisory Group believes optimism on economy and bank earnings may be falsely held; says core fundamentals have not and are not improving. -
Bernstein tõstab Wells Fargo (WFC) hinnasihi $40 peale ja soovituseks 'outperform'.
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Äripäev refereerib Paul Krugmani, kahjuks küll paljud olulised mõtted välja jäänu ÄP-st ... näiteks DON`T PANIC :)
ÄP: http://www.ap3.ee/Default2.aspx?ArticleID=7735a6ac-f765-4b07-9d06-0ded89947bcb&ref=rss
Originaal: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ap6aPBj59zLc -
Hiina on üha tõsisemalt kaalumas USAle silmade ette tegemist kliima kaitsmises ning võimalik, et tutvustatakse COx- ühenditega reostamise kauplemise õiguste käikulaskmist. Kuigi Pro all sai hiljuti kirjutatud Fuel Techist (FTEK), mis võidab eelkõige lämmastik-reostuse vähendamisest, on igasugused sammud Hiinas õhureostuse vähendamise nõuete karmistumisest kindlasti suurendamas investorite huvi ka alternatiivsete õhureostust vähendavate ettevõtete vastu, nagu on seda näiteks FTEK.
Chinese start carbon-trading scheme - Times of LondonTimes of London reports China will throw down the gauntlet to western economies and businesses on climate change when it unveils its own emissions-trading scheme this week. The unexpected move will, for the first time, place limits on the amount of greenhouse gases Chinese industries are allowed to emit. A delegation from the China Beijing Environmental Exchange, a government-backed platform for trading environmental equity, will outline the details in New York this week at a UN conference on climate change. China's entry into the carbon-trading market holds significant implications for businesses and the environment... If China installs a scheme to cap the emissions of its industries, it would create huge demand for new environmental projects, significantly increasing the value of the market. -
Euroopas on täna vahelduseks olnud näha ka korralikumat müügisurvet ning suurem osa indeksitest ca 1% miinuses. USA alustab päeva ca 0.7%lise miinusega, nafta on kukkunud 4% $69.6 peale.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -1.20%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.73%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.95%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.04%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0.90%
Venemaa MICEX -3.06%
Poola WIG -0.16%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud)
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.70%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.14%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.54%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.30%
Tai Set 50 -0.48%
India Sensex 30 N/A (börs suletud) -
The Balancing Act
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/21/2009 8:31 AM EDT
There's no secret to balance. You just have to feel the waves.
-- Frank Herbert
The great dilemma for investors in a strongly trending market is to find the balance between strong momentum and respect for overbought conditions. The problem is that extended markets almost always become even more extended. If you are too quick to look for momentum to cool, you'll probably be on the sidelines prematurely. On the other hand, if you are blind to the fact that charts are too lofty, there is great danger of being caught in a sudden reversal.
The present market has been particularly tricky because there has been such strong momentum and so few pullbacks and charts are just becoming more and more extended. The level of bullishness is growing, but the easy entry points are becoming increasingly scarce.
The stock market is always a balancing act between prudence and conviction, which is what makes it so difficult. If you are overly prudent, you risk being left behind; if you are overly convinced, you risk being disappointed.
My view recently has been to give the momentum particularly strong regard because the dips have been so shallow and so quickly bought. Market players just haven't seen any hesitance among buyers, which has driven the dip-buyers to be extremely aggressive and has kept the uptrend so strong.
In a market environment with such a strong uptrend, there are very big profits to protect, making the risks of sudden spikes down quite high as bouts of profit-taking kick in. On the other hand, the dip-buyers are going to be lurking and ready to jump in because that strategy has worked so well. The net result is that volatility is likely to increase. There will be a rush to protect profits that will create an air pocket, but then the dip-buyers will decide it is time to jump back in ... and up we go again.
Ultimately, increased volatility of this sort tends to be a sign of a turning point, but it is a process that takes time to play out. The dip-buyers eventually become less certain as the quick recoveries become less energetic and the profit-takers become more aggressive in protecting big gains.
We are still clearly in the uptrend phase, but the danger of some air pockets is growing as we become more technically extended. However, it is too early to look for the dip-buyers to give up, so the uptrend is likely to stay very sticky to the upside. In addition, I suspect there will be plenty of talk about end-of-the-quarter window dressing as a catalyst to hold us up.
This morning we have a bit of an air pocket as financials and commodity-related stocks are suffering some profit-taking. Even the sainted Apple (AAPL) has a downgrade. Buyers have typically been quick to jump on morning weakness lately, so we'll see how things shape up after the open.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
M&A news: PER +65.8% (Dell to acquire Perot Systems for $30 per share in cash)... Select stem cell related names showing strength: CUR +60.4% (receives FDA approval to commence first ALS Stem Cell Trial), STEM +5.2%... Other news: ICGN +28.3% (announces extension of Pfizer Collaboration, Pfizer will provide ~$5.0 mln in committed funding to ICGN), AEZS +15.4% (announced the completion of a Phase 1 study AEZS-112), NKTR +14.8% (Nektar Therapeutics and AstraZeneca sign agreement for Nektar drug development programs to address opioid-induced constipation), INCY +13.2% (announces positive top-line Phase IIb results for topical INCB18424 in Psoriasis), FFBC +11.9% (light volume; acquires the banking operations of Irwin Union Bank and Trust Company and Irwin Union Bank, F.S.B.), IPXL +6.6% (reports "positive" results of Phase II Trial of IPX066, a novel formulation of carbidopa-levodopa for Parkinson's Disease), BCRX +4.3% (awarded additional $77.2 mln by the U.S. Dept of Health & Human Services to develop Peramivir for influenza), HAIN +3.9% and TKLC +3.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), AMGN +2.9% (Ph. 3 trial shows denosumab delayed skeletal related events in advanced cancer patients with bone metastases), MWW +1.5% (mentioned positively in Barron's)... Analyst comments: CYT +5.0% (upgraded to Buy at Keybanc), NTAP +3.0% (raised to Conviction Buy from Neutral by Goldman- DJ), CELG +1.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), NVLS +0.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SWWC -7.2%, POT -4.0% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Soleil), LEN -3.3% ... M&A news: DELL -4.1% (Dell to acquire Perot Systems for $3.9 bln or $30 per share in cash), FACT -1.0% (Biogen Idec Commences Tender Offer for Facet Biotech for $14.50/share in cash)... Select financial related names showing weakness: RBS -7.6% (Royal Bank of Scotland eyes 3 bln pounds share issue - FT), AIB -6.5%, IRE -6.2%, LYG -4.4% (plans to issue mortgage-backed securities - WSJ), ING -2.4%, BAC -2.2%, BAC -1.5%, AXA -1.3%, AIG -1.2%... Select ag/chemical related names trading lower following POT guidance: AGU -2.9%, MOS -2.9% (downgraded to Hold at Soleil), MON -1.9%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: MT -4.9% (Arcelor Mittal too upbeat about steel rebound, say rivals - FT; also downgraded to Neutral at BNP), RTP -3.1%, GOLD -2.8%, BHP -2.4%... Other news: IFC -54.2% (First Financial acquires the banking operations of Irwin Union Bank and Trust Company and Irwin Union Bank, F.S.B.), DPTR -32.7% (announced initial completion results from the Gray 31-23 well in the Columbia River Basin), GTN -13.2% (still checking), QDEL -9.1% (issues clarification regarding the Special 510(k) clearance), ALTI -7.0% (files $150 mln mixed shelf registration), NCT -5.6% (pulling back from last week's 90%+ surge higher), E -4.2% (still checking), BUSE -3.0% (announces public offering of 18,000,000 shares of its common stock), AMAT -1.0% (announced a reorganization of certain members of its executive staff; also downgraded to Average at Caris)... Analyst comments: Q -4.6% (added to ConvictioN Sell list at Goldman- Reuters), IOC -4.1% (downgraded to Market Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James), GET -3.7% (downgraded to Underperform at Wells Fargo), ARNA -3.5% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Leerink Swann), CMA -2.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein), ANF -2.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Cowen), BK -2.1% (cut to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs -DJ), HOT -2.0% (downgraded to Underperform at Wells Fargo), EMC -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray), AAPL -0.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at FTN Equity). -
Valuutaturul on samuti EUR/USD kannapöörde teinud ja kukkunud 0.6% võrra 1.4619 juurde. Sellel kolmapäeval on FEDi miiting ja nädalalõpus G20 kohtumine, kust võib tulla vihjeid QE & madalate intressimäärad väljumisstrateegiate kohta. Siinkohal tuletaks meelde, kuidas dollar käitus, kui Fed on intressimäärasid tõstma hakanud:
Huvitaval kombel on dollar esimesed kuus kuud kukkunud (valuatsioon piirab küll täna EUR/USDi suurt kukkumist).
PS. Kulla hind on tugevama dollari peale $10 dollari võrra allpool & võitleb $1000 dollari piiriga.
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Kuna QQQQ'del n-ö kukkus tänase päevaga 52-nädala graafikult ära senine kõrgeim sulgumishind, mis tehti 19. septembril 2008, siis täna võime põhimõtteliselt öelda, et oleme 1-aasta tipu sulgemishinnast, mis tehti möödunud reedel, täpselt 0.2% madalamal...
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paistab, et reedel olin ainuke loll, kes askist cablw ostis kõik mis sai 60-70k
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Äkki saab lisada selle CABLW aktsia samuti LHV ostunimekirja? Tänud. Äkki saavad ka teised lustida:)
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August Leading Indicators +0.6% vs +0.7% consensus, prior revised to +0.9% from +0.6%
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Sector ETF strength & weakness @ midday
Leading Sector ETFs:
US airlines- FAA +2.5%, Biotech- BBH +1%, IBB +1%, XBI +.5% Healthcare- XLV +1%, IYH +.5%, Pharma HLDRS- PPH +.5%, US bonds- TLT +.5%Lagging Sector ETFs:
RBOB gas futures- UGA -4%, Crude/WTI oil- USO -3.5%, OIL -3.5%, Commods- DBC -2%, GSG -2%, Gold miners- GDX -2%, Reg banks- KRE -2%, Ag/chem- MOO -2%, iShares REITS/real estate- ICF -2%, IYR -2%, Dry-bulk shippers- SEA -2%, Solar power- TAN -2%, KWT -1.5%, Nay gas- UNG -1.5%, Energy- IYE -1.5%, XLE -1.5%, Steel- SLX -1.5% -
Milline ETF kõige rohkem retail sektori liikumistele panustamiseks sobib? Eriti meeldiks kui oleks veel ka võimendusega.
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RTH peaks olema selleks kõige sobivam instrument. Võimendusega ETF-idel küllaltki suured lisariskid.
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RTH paistabki sobivat. Apr putid olemas ja nicely priced. Aitäh!
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Tänane päev oli QQQQ 52-nädala closing high...
