Börsipäev 25. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Tänast börsipäeva alustaks Marc Faberi videoga, kes ütleb, et ei oleks üllatunud, kui USA aktsiaturud oleksid 2009. aastaks oma tipu ära teinud ning võiksid siit langeda ka 20%. Kui märtsist septembrini on olnud dollar väga nõrk ja aktsiaturud tugevad, siis nüüd ootaks ta aasta lõpuni dollari tugevnemist ja aktsiaturgude nõrgenemist. Kulda Faber ei müü, kuid ütleb, et ajutiselt tugevneva dollari tõttu võib ka seal näha nõrgenemist kuni $900-$920ni, kuid tema sellepärast ei muretseks.
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Täna tund aega enne USA turgude avanemist teatatakse augustikuu kestvuskaupade tellimuste muutus, millelt oodatakse 0.4%list kasvu ja ilma transpordita 1.0%list kasvu. Kell 16.55 tuleb Michigani septembrikuu sentimendi näitaja, millelt oodatakse 70.5 punktilist näitu (augustis oli 70.2) ning kell 17.00 tuleb augustikuu uute eluasemete annualiseeritud müügitempo, kust oodatakse 440 000list näitu.
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Laevatranspordi ettevõtete jaoks on mereteedel puhumas taas ebasoodsad tuuled, kui vedamistasusid kajastav Baltic Dry index pärast juuni tippu nüüdseks ca 50% madalamale on vajunud. Kuna kuivlasti vedudes moodustab olulise osa kivisüsi ja rauamaak, põhjustas aasta alguse tõusu vedamishindades Hiina kasvanud toorainete import (eelmisel aastal tarbis Hiina 43% maailma kivisöetoodangust). Suve alguseks saavutati juba piisavad varud ning lisaks täiendati oma siseriiklikku tootmisvõimsust kaevanduste läbi, mis varem ohtusnõuete mittetäitmise tõttu suletud olid. Sestap langes augustis Hiina rauamaagi import -14% võrreldes juuliga ja kivisöe sissevedu -15%, vähenedes teist kuud järjest. Sektori väljavaadet kahjustab lisaks uute dry-bulk laevade valmimine, mille netokasv on kiirenenud viimastel kuudel 8-9%-ni versus 3% esimeses kvartalis.
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Could China Be About to Import Corn? Source: Reuters (dated 25/09/2009)
Beijing, Sep. 25 - China's self-sufficiency in corn is suddenly in doubt because a drought is threatening to cut the harvest as much as 10 percent and the government's stockpiles are thousands of miles from the market, prompting the question: is it time to import? Although imports are not yet imminent, any purchases of corn by China, which until 2003 was the leading Asian exporter of the grain, could ignite the Chicago market, which has fallen by nearly 30 percent since June on expectation of a second largest ever U.S. crop.
Kui prooviks commodity, antud juhul siis maisi play'd mingit moodi. ETF-iga?
Palun abi Hr. Viireselt. Kas sweedi kaudu LSE: CORN.L on kaubeldav?
LYXOR COMMODITIES CRB NON-ENERGY ei sobi eriti..... -
Swedi ei tea, aga LHV kaudu on CORN.L küll kaubeldav.
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Goldman Sachs kommenteerib naftahinna langust & soovitab investoritel kannatust varuda oktoobrini:
This lack of a clear trend in fundamentals has created a significant amount of impatience for signs of improving oil fundamentals — particularly after this week’s poor demand statistics — prompting the phrase, an “energy-less recovery”. This misses the fact that demand still remains inline with the macroeconomic variables, which have only just begun to recover and are barely off the trough. Exacerbating the lack of direction off the trough are the seasonally weak shoulder months in demand, which further increase the price volatility. While we continue to believe in a sequential recovery in 4Q2009 demand, that drives our $85/bbl end of year target, due to the shoulder months we are unlikely to see evidence of it until October. (loe pikemalt siit)
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opex,
Kui toiduainesaaduste ETF'idest laiemalt rääkida, siis ka USA börsil on väga alternatiiv olemas - sümboliks DBA. Kajastab maisi, suhkru, sojaubade ja nisuhinna liikumist. -
Laiemalt toiduainesektori on võimalik panustada ka läbi põllumajandussektori ettevõtete ETFi MOO, millest on pikemalt jutt siin. Huvitav sektor, kuna varusid suurendatakse, etanooli vajadus kasvab, arenguriikides suureneb nõudlus & rahvastik kasvab.
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Ohoo... Väga agressiivse sõnavõtuga intervjuu Peter Schiffilt (link siin). Schiff ütleb, et Bernanke pole kogu oma ametisolemise aja jooksul ühtegi õiget otsust teinud ning võrdleb USA majandust 1999. aasta internetiaktsiate mulliga ning ütleb, et nii nagu kahjumlikud netiettevõtted said eksisteerida ainult tänu sellele, et leidus investoreid, kes olid neid kahjumlikke ettevõtteid nõus finantseerima, siis sama kehtib täna USA kohta - ehk USA suudab oma tänast elustandardit hoida vaid senikaua, kuni välisinvestorid, eelkõige Hiina, nende paraboolselt kasvavat laenukoormat finantseerivad. Ning sarnaselt Faberile on ka Schiff kindel, et ees on ootamas tõeline dollarikriis, kus dollar kaotab suure osa oma väärtusest ning selle tulemusena näeb USA väga kõrget inflatsiooni (lihtsalt eksporditakse see välismaiste kaupadega sisse), millele järgnevad tõeliselt kõrged intressimäärad inflatsiooni ohjeldamiseks.
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USA börsil on võimalik kaubelda ka dollari liikumist kajastavate instrumentidega.
UUP tõuseb koos dollari tugevnemisega ning vastupidiselt UDN tõuseb koos dollari nõrgenemisega. Korv, mille vastu dollari liikumist jäljendatakse koosneb 58% ulatuses eurodest, 14% ulatuses Jaapani jeenidest, 12% Suurbritannia naeltest, 9% Kanada dollaritest, 4% Rootsi kroonist ja 4% Šveitsi frankist.
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Chesapeake Energy (CHK) on leidnud endale partneri ühisettevõtte loomiseks midstream varade eraldi haldamiseks. 50%lise osaluse eest saadi Global Infrastructure Partners'itelt (GIP) $588 miljonit, mis aitab veelgi summutada ettevõtte likviidsusprobleemide jutte ning vähendada Chesapeake Energy (CHK) bilansilehel olevat võimendust ning saavutada nende poolt seatud eesmärk jõuda investment grade tasemele.
Chesapeake Energy announces midstream joint venture (27.82). Co announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to form a joint venture on a portion of its midstream assets with Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP). As part of the transaction, Chesapeake will contribute certain natural gas gathering and processing assets into a new entity, Chesapeake Midstream Partners, L.L.C. (CMP), and GIP will purchase a 50% interest in CMP. Chesapeake will retain the remaining 50% interest in CMP and receive $588 million in cash from GIP. The assets Chesapeake will contribute to the joint venture are substantially all of its midstream assets in the Barnett Shale and also the majority of the company's non-shale midstream assets in the Arkoma, Anadarko, Delaware and Permian Basins. Closing of the transaction is anticipated to occur later this month.
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KB Home (KBH) misses by $0.29, reports revs in-line.
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Financial groups hit by surge in loan losses - FT
FT reports the US financial sector's losses on large loans exploded over the past year, exceeding the combined losses since 2001, with hedge funds and other members of the "shadow banking system" hit the hardest, official figures revealed. Regulators' annual review of "shared national credits" -- loans larger than $20 mln shared by three or more federally regulated institutions -- highlighted the toll taken by the crisis on financial groups outside the traditional banking sector. More than one in three dollars lent by non-bank institutions such as hedge funds, securitization vehicles and pension funds, went sour, according to the figures, compared with 11.5% for US banks. The results will increase fears that, in spite of a recovery in the shares and balance sheets of many banks, the epicenter of the crisis has moved to the hedge funds and investors that gorged on cheap credit in the run-up to the turmoil. The importance of these non-bank institutions was underlined by the review's finding that they held 47% of problem loans, in spite of accounting for only 21.2% of the total loan pool. -
Täna on võimalik veidi actionit näha Hiina online mängumaastikul, kui börsile jõuab Shanda Interactive'st (SNDA) eraldatud Shanda Games (GAME), millest kirjutasin lähemalt siin. Kui artklis on märgitud, et müüdavate aktsiate arv pidi ulatuma 63 miljonini siis viimasel hetkel otsustati seda tõsta 83 miljonini, tänu millele kujunes IPO selle aasta suurimaks (ca1 mld USD). Aktsia hinnaks osutus 12.5 USD, mis jäi pakkumisvahemiku lõppu (10.5-12.5 USD). Ostuhuvi peaks turul jätkuma, sest Shandat katva analüüsimaja Pali Capitali hinnangul jõuab Shanda Games börsile konkurentidest madalama P/E näitaja juures. Õiglaseks hinnaks pakub Pali 15 USD.
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August Durable Goods -2.4% vs +0.4% consensus, prior revised to +4.8% from +5.1%
August Durable Goods ex-trans 0.0% vs +1.0% consensus, prior revised to +0.9% from +1.1% -
Economist on kuri USA madalate intressimäärade peale & USA majanduskasvu kvaliteeti võrreldakse Weekend at Bernie filmiga:
The fear is of a “Weekend at Bernie’s” recovery, after the 1989 film, in which two office workers pretend their dead boss is alive (putting sunglasses on the corpse and propping it up) so they can enjoy the party lifestyle.
Samas ei saa eirata madalate intressimäärade mõju varaklasside valikul:
In America, money-market funds yield around 0.1% after fees, so an investor with $100,000 receives just $100 in annual interest. Unsurprisingly, investors have withdrawn $332 billion from such funds this year, or around 10% of total assets, according to EPFR Global, a data provider
& artikkel lõppeb UBSi järeldusega:
“Liquidity has been a much bigger driver of this market than fundamentals. Liquidity-driven rallies have a habit of reversing violently without warning.”
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Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0.45%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.35%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.26%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.70%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0.06%
Venemaa MICEX -0.04%
Poola WIG -0.71%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.64%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.13%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.52%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.06%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.43%
Tai Set 50 -1.00%
India Sensex 30 -0.53% -
In a Precarious Spot
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/25/2009 8:41 AM EDT
A fool sees not the same tree that a wise man sees.
-- William Blake
The most remarkable thing about this historic rally since the March low is how quickly and consistently it has bounced back every time it looked like it was ready to break down. In every month from May through September we have had pullbacks that would have snapped the major uptrend if they had just gone a little further.
Instead, the dip-buyers made a stand, but instead of just holding us steady and gradually working our way back up we ran back up in a straight line without a pause. Suddenly all the folks who were becoming a little more defensive and the bears who were starting to press a little harder found themselves badly positioned and had to scramble to do some buying. That caused increased upside momentum, and underinvested bulls had to start chasing if they want in.
We saw moves exactly like that in July, when earnings season started, and then in August after it ended and people were looking for a rest, and then most recently in September, when the talk was about the negative seasonality kicking in. In all cases, the pullbacks turned into massive bear traps.
So following the FOMC interest rate announcement on Wednesday, we have another pullback under way. It gained steam yesterday, although it was covered up a bit by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which didn't reflect the extent of the selling. Now this morning we have a poor report from Research In Motion (RIMM) as a possible bearish catalyst.
Obviously the lesson to be learned in this market is to be very careful if you are looking for a change in trend. Technically, more downside looks very logical. We are still extended and don't have much support on the charts. The S&P 500 could easily go to 1040 without doing any real damage, and a move all the way back to the 50-day simple moving average at 1010 wouldn't do much to injure the overall uptrend.
The most important thing right now is that the price action has turned negative and the dip-buyers showed very little conviction yesterday afternoon. They have another chance this morning as RIMM weighs on things. We need to watch the power of a bounce very carefully. A series of failed bounces would change the nature of this market, but if we recover and the dip-buyers regain their upside momentum, then watch out -- once they get going, history suggests they won't stop.
The market is in a precarious place here, and we have to be more defensive as we evaluate how much interest the bulls have in buying weakness. If they fizzle out after brief attempts, then more downside should start coming fast. It is a good time to know what you might want to buy but to not be in a big hurry to buy it.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TIBX +7.3%, SABA +3.3%... Other news: SLE +8.8% (receives binding offer of eur1.275 bln From Unilever for its global body care business), ALTH +8.0% (announces last night the FDA granted accelerated approval for FOLOTYNTM), BLD +7.8% (light volume; announces the settlement of its patent dispute with technotrans), EZPW +5.0% (will replace SPSS in the S&P SmallCap 600), SLH +4.2% (will replace Metavante Technologies in the S&P MidCap 400), IRE +2.1%, ING +2.0% (ANZ buys ING's stake in joint ventures for $1.5 bln - DJ), F +1.2% (joint venture in China - Changan Ford Mazda Automobile- is building a new, highly flexible passenger car plant)... Analyst comments: FMCN +5.0% (upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna Financial), LSI +4.7% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), LCC +4.5% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), UAUA +3.3% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), AMR +2.8% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), STEC +2.5% (upgraded to Buy at B.Riley), CAT +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), ADTN +2.0% (upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel), CAL +1.6% (upgraded to Buy at UBS)... SUN +1.4%, OXY +1.4% and APA +1.2% (all upgraded at Goldman -DJ).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RIMM -13.8% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy, removed from Americas Conviction Buy list at Goldman- Reuters, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), KBH -6.4%... Select financial names trading lower: RF -3.1%, LYG -3.1%, ABB -2.3%, AIG -2.2%, BX -1.9%, HIG -1.8%, BCS -1.5%, UBS -1.5%, CS -1.2%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: NG -5.7%, MT -2.3%, AUY -2.2%, RTP -2.2%, VALE -1.5%, GG -1.3%... Select large cap tech names showing weakness following RIMM results: DELL -1.4%, AMZN -1.3%, AAPL -1.1%... Other news: UCBI -17.1% (priced a public offering of 38,700,000 shares of common stock at $5.00 per share for gross proceeds of $193.5 mln), METR -7.7% (announces it priced its public offering of 6.25 mln shares of common stock at $12/share), NMR -6.0% (fell overseas following share sale), HERO -5.0% (prices public offering of common stock at $5.00), EVEP -4.6% (files for a 2.8 mln common unit offering), INCY -3.3% (priced a $350 mln convertible notes offering), BUSE -2.7% (prices 18 mln share common stock offering at $4/share), QGEN -2.4% (increase 2.5 times oversubscribed, according to financial sources - Reuters; priced a 27.5 mln share common stock offering at $20.25/share), AUXL -1.7% (files for a 2 mln share common stock offering)... Analyst comments: EMCI -7.7% (downgraded to Underperform at Keefe Bruyette), SD -5.6% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman -DJ), MNKD -5.2% (downgraded to Underperform from Perform at Oppenheimer), LM -3.6% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), MEE -3.4% and CNX -2.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), TXT -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral at Cowen). -
September University of Michigan Sentiment- final 73.5 vs 70.5 consensus, prelim 70.2
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August New Home Sales 429K vs 440K consensus; M/M +0.7%
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Shanda Games nüüd kaubeldav, ticker GAME. IPO hind $12.50, sealt vajunud juba $11.60 tasemele.
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Esmaspäeval tähistavad juudid oma kõige pühamat püha Yom Kippurit. Kuna juute on finantssektoris väga palju, siis esmaspäevane kauplemispäev peaks saama olema ebatavaliselt madala käibega.
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Weekly Insider Trading Summary:
Notable Purchases -- TIXC, RURL, TSON, HALL
Notable Sales -- HUN, NYT, GPS, CCL, ARQL, VRUS, FMER, TOL, ARD, GYMB
Over the past week we've seen notable insider buying in the following stocks: Tix (TIXC) 10% owner Emerald Pacific Advisors bought 356,210 shares at $3.07-4.10 on 9/17-9/22... Rural/Metro (RURL) 10% owner Coliseum Capital Management bought 297,000 shares at $4.10 on 9/17-9/21... TranS1 (TSON) 10% owner Delphi Management Partners bought 49,000 shares at $4.86-4.99 on 9/18-9/22... Hallmark Financial (HALL) 10% owner Newcastle Partners bought 25,101 shares at $8.09-8.10 on 9/21-9/22...
We've seen notable insider selling in the following stocks: Huntsman (HUN) 10% owner MatlinPatterson Global Partners sold 23,095,197 shares at $9.27-9.84 on 9/18-9/23... New York Times (NYT) 10% owner Harbinger Capital Partners sold 5,000,000 shares at $8.25 on 9/17... Gap (GPS) 10% owner Fischer Core Holdings (pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan) sold 1,500,000 shares at $22.00-22.27 on 9/18-9/21... Carnival (CCL) CEO and 10% owners MBA and Nickel Continued and Artsfare Trusts (pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 sales plan) sold 800,000 shares at $31.58-34.73 on 9/18-9/23... Arqule (ARQL) 10% owner BVF Partners sold 3,680,000 shares at $5.25 on 9/17... Pharmasset (VRUS) 10% owner QVT Associates sold 910,000 shares at $20.88-22.95 on 9/22-9/24... FirstMerit (FMER) CEO (pursuant to a 10b5-1 trading plan) and Director sold 673,655 shares at $18.01-18.32 on 9/18-9/23... Toll Brothers (TOL) CEO and Director sold 350,853 shares at $21.42-22.44 on 9/17... Arena Resources (ARD) Chairman sold 131,450 shares at $35.54-35.95 on 9/22-9/23... Gymboree (GYMB) SVP sold 69,394 shares at $50.00-50.50 on 9/21... James River Coal (JRCC) 10% owner Steelhead Partners sold 118,732 shares at $21.26 on 9/22... Guess? (GES) CEO sold 50,000 shares at $37.40 on 9/18... All sales exclude option sell offs.
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Fed's Warsh says Fed may need to roll back policies sooner
Fed's Warsh says last few months show continued improvement in economic performance
Ja turg teeb üsna korraliku spike üles. -
Fed's Bullard says Fed should consider rules governing quantitative easing policies with rates near zero
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Dip-buyeritel üsna tõsine põrkeüritus käsil, kuid eur juba punasesse vajunud. Nafta ei suuda ka eriti kaasa minna.
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Kummaline, turul müük hetkel täitsa kadunud, siin kõvasti dip-buyiereid sisse tõmmatud. Eriti ei usu, et siit plusspäev välja pingutatakse.
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Joeal
Kas sa seda Barronsi lugu märkasid?
Briefing
Barron's Online discusses natural-gas stocks - (APC, CHK, COG, PTEN)
Barron's Online reports it's not every day that natural-gas analysts and traders use words like "bizarre" and "unprecedented" to describe the ups and downs of the gas market. Don't blame it on hyperbole. They are reacting to a market environment in which the stocks of natural gas producers and drillers have shot up even as the price of gas has fallen to multi-year lows. Natural-gas investors are obviously betting that the economy will improve and gas production will decline in the coming year. But with numerous unknowns and a continuing supply glut in the market, bets on improving natural-gas prices look increasingly risky. Gas producers like Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) and Anadarko Petroleum (APC), and drilling service companies like Patterson--UTI Energy (PTEN) are trading as if happy days have arrived and gas is both in short supply and in high demand. Booming supply and weakened demand have combined to push prices for the commodity down to levels that haven't been seen since 2002... "There's been a definite disconnect between the commodity (price) and the E&P names," says Peter Vig, the managing partner of hedge fund Roundback Capital. "The Wall Street crowd is more optimistic than the industry itself."
Kui tõsiselt seda võtta? Mind see rõõmust rõkkama ei pane ja vaadates, mida COG teeb, on mul väike kõhklus CHK kohapealt. -
*Joel
