Börsipäev 28. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Aasias oli täna korralikult punane päev. Jaapan on praegu üle 2.5%, Hong Kong üle 1.5%, Tai, Indoneesia, Singapur, Filipiinid üle 1% miinuses. USA futuurid on selle peale samuti vajunud 0.3% kuni 0.2% punasess ning nafta kaupleb $65.6 peal.
Täna tähistatakse juutide püha Yom Kippurit ning seetõttu võiks kauplemine olla tavapärasest õhem. Olulisi majandusraporteid USAs täna ei avalikustata. -
Pühapäeval alustas Hiina USA kanaliha importimist ja seda, kas ameeriklased tegelevad sellel turul dumpinguga ja ebaõiglase subsideerimisega või mitte. Tundub, et paar nädalat varem Hiinas toodetud rehvide maksustamine 35%lise tollimaksuga ei jää siiski vastuseta.
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Mis siis selle teadmisega peale hakata? Shortida SAFM, TSN, SFD.
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Või jääda edasisi uudised ootama. Kui alustas importimist, siis positiivne, kui tuleb tollimaks, siis negatiivne.
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Pigem tasuks silmad lahti hoida, et USA ja Hiina vahel ikkagi laiemat tollisõda ei puhkeks. Kuigi vähetõenäoline, oleks selle realiseerumine mõlemale poole valus.
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Ettevõtjad on 0%ga juurde trükitavat maas lebavat raha kasutusse võtmas. Täna võime lugeda sellest, kuidas Abbott Laboratories tahab $7.1 miljardi eest osta Solvay SA farmaatsiaüksuse ning et Xerox ostab Affiliated Computer Service'i $6.4 miljardi eest. Xeroxi pakkumine Affiliated'i eest on võrreldes reedese sulgumishinnaga 33% enam.
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ACS eelturul 56,8 $ peal aga pakkumise hind (cash + aktsiad) 64$ ?
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Luba liikuda on ka Xeroxil. Arvuta uuesti!
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Reio,
Põhjus on selles, et XRX on eelturul 10% miinuses. Ning ülevõtt ei olnud all cash. -
Stocker,
Reede õhtuses börsipäevas viitasid Barronsi loole, kus on välja toodud lühema aja maagaasi supply glut. Tõsi, lühemas perpsektiivis on vaja tootjatel oma puurimist veelgi vähendada ning tugevamad võidavad nõrgemate ärakukkumisest, kuid pikemas perspektiivis on tegu potentsiaalika turuga. Näiteks täna on samas võtmes kommenteerimas maagaasiturgu ka Merrill Lynch - ehk tugevus tuleb 2010. aasta teises pooles, kuid ärakukkuva pakkumise tõttu võiks oodata keskmiselt suuremat hüpet hindades:
Value opening up in US nat gas in 2H2010
�� Prompt US nat gas prices remain very low and volatile
The physical US natural gas market is in an alarming state. Storage caverns in
the producing region are nearly full. Major pipelines have issued imbalance
warnings, implying that the market is close to running out of storage capacity.
Meanwhile, natural gas prices have dropped below coal parity levels. In the
absence of storage capacity or fuel switching, volatility in front-month NYMEX
contracts has risen above 100% as prices now gyrate daily to balance supply and
demand. Hence, following a price collapse in early September below $2/MMBtu,
cash nat gas prices at the Henry Hub rallied by 80% in the last two weeks.
Low prices could help avoid storage congestion near-term…
Base-load and industrial gas demand remains lacklustre. Utilities have been
substituting coal for natural gas in power generation but this could be an unstable
source of demand going into the winter. In our view, the real rebalance has to
come from the supply side. To date, the impact of the sharp rig count reductions is
still concealed by rising shale gas production. Despite the steep price declines,
shut-ins of existing production have occurred too slowly. Thus, US natural gas
prices will have to remain depressed near-term, particularly relative to oil.
…but production declines will tighten the market in 2H10
Make no doubt, the market will eventually rebalance. We expect the rig count
reductions and natural field declines to drive dry production from a peak of 58
bcf/d to 53 bcf/d by mid next year. Hence, there could be real value opening up in
2H10. While we are lowering our forecasts for the first half of next year to reflect
the delay in production declines, we are raising our forecasts for the latter half.
Overall, we stick to our average 2010 forecast of $6/MMBtu, relative to the current
forward of $5.50/MMBtu. In our view, gas prices will rise to an average of
$7.60/MMBtu in 4Q10, relative to the current forward of $6.40/MMBtu. -
USA on hommikusest miinusest välja roninud ning koos Euroopa turgude tõusulainega on ka USA futuurid ca 0.4% kuni 0.5% plusspoolele liikunud.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +1.54%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.96%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.81%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.83%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.82%
Venemaa MICEX +0.35%
Poola WIG -0.13%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.50%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.07%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.66%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -2.03%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.95%
Tai Set 50 -1.81%
India Sensex 30 N/A (börs suletud) -
Another Big Test
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/28/2009 8:30 AM EDT
Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.
-- Confucius
Since the low in March, the major indices have displayed remarkable resiliency. The very persistent strength since early July has been even more remarkable. Since then, the market has immediately recovered from the two pullbacks that we had prior to last week.
Last week the market underwent a three-day pullback on higher volume and is now at a particularly important juncture. If the recent pattern persists, we should quickly recover once again. The dip-buyers have consistently jumped in when we've had pullbacks like this and not only held us steady but quickly taken us right back up to new recent highs.
What has made this market quite tricky is that these immediate and very aggressive recoveries are not what you'd expect to see technically. Markets that are as extended as this one has become over the last few months generally need to consolidate gains a bit more and will see some churning while they do so. This market has simply gone straight back up after a few days of pulling back in August and early September.
What has been driving this extremely strong market action isn't any big surprise. Market players were very slow to embrace this market after a massive collapse, and many believed we were just seeing a vigorous bear-market bounce that would soon come to an end. This left many folks holding high levels of cash, and as the market ran straight up with barely a pullback, they were forced to pay up if they wanted to be in. The more we ran, the greater the frustration over being left behind, which led to extremely aggressive buying of any market dip.
And that brings us to our current situation. Once again we had some fairly aggressive selling and the indices are on the verge of finally seeing some technical damage, but this is exactly the point where buyers have tended to jump in and drive us straight back up. So the big question is whether it is going to be different this time or whether the aggressive dip-buying will kick in yet again and take us right back up.
What is interesting now is that many more folks seem to be embracing the idea that the worst is over for the economy and that a slow and bumpy recovery is taking place. I'm seeing many more stories about increased optimism and hope. Obviously we have been pricing that in for months now, so you have to wonder if the media's embrace of the idea is a contrary indicator.
Trying to time a top in this market has been a disaster for those who have tried. The fundamental arguments against this market simply haven't mattered. If you have ignored the price action you have been burned. While the price action showed some cracks last week, it is still too early to be aggressively bearish. The dip-buyers have not yet shown signs that they are ready to give up. They may have paused for a few days, but this is exactly the point where they have tended to come roaring back. While we may want to be more defensive, it isn't time yet to give up on this market.
Today is the Yom Kippur holiday, so volume is likely to be thin, which will likely keep things more volatile; we won't want to read too much into today's action. The big test will come after we start to bounce. The key is the dip-buyers and their willingness to stay as aggressive, as they have been for so long. It is only when they start to hesitate and allow the bears to gain a little control that we need to watch for the potential of a change in trend. At the moment we have a few warning signs, but the bulls have yet to fail a real test.
We are kicking off with some Monday-morning strength, but the news flow is a bit slow. I see upgrades of Cisco (CSCO) and Applied Materials (AMAT) but a downgrade of the steel sector by Goldman.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
M&A news: ASPM +55.5% (Aspect Medical announces definitive agreement to be acquired by Covidien for $12.00 in cash per share), GETI +39.8% (agrees to be acquired by American Securities for $38.00 Per Share in Cash), ACS +20.1% (Affiliated Computer to be acquired by Xerox for $63.11 per share in cash and Xerox stock), PMRY +7.3% (announces agreement to be acquired by Platinum Equity for $6.50 per share in cash)... Select casino related names ticking higher: WYNN +2.5%, MGM +2.5%, LVS +2.0%... Other news: GMTN +31.4% (announced its intent to cease its public company status; after reverse stock split, any shareholder holding less than one share will receive a cash payment of $5.15 for each share held prior to the reverse split), HYTM +28.6% (announces first peer-reviewed publication of statistically significant results from randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study), YRCW +6.7% (discloses amendment to ABS Facility), HLCS +5.8% (announces system sale to Correlagen Diagnostics), COMS +5.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), BZ +5.4% (disclosed that it has entered into discussions with holders of debt), NVAX +3.9% (Second wave of swine flu pandemic begins to hit US - Boston Globe), KERX +2.6% (entered into definitive agreements to sell 8 million shares of its common stock at a price per share of $2.50), AZN +2.2% (still checking for anything specific), ABT +1.7% (Abbott Labs to acquire Solvay Pharmaceuticals Business for $6.6 bln), CRXL +1.3% (Johnson & Johnson and Crucell announce strategic collaboration; Johnson & Johnson buys 18% equity investment in Crucell)... Analyst comments: VPHM +3.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), CSCO +3.0% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays), AMAT +2.3% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), FNFG +1.6% (initiated with a Buy at Goldman-DJ).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CALM -10.0%... M&A news: XRX -10.4% (to acquire ACS in a cash and stock transaction valued at $63.11 per share or $6.4 bln; also trading ex dividend)... Select solar related names showing weakness: SPWRA -3.3%, ENER -2.6%, YGE -2.3%, FSLR -1.6%... Other news: RSO -14.7% (trading ex dividend), WIN -3.8% (trading ex dividend), CHU -2.4% (China Unicom Hong Kong announces share repurchase from SK Telecom)... Analyst comments: WFR -3.4% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), JNY -3.4% (cut to Neutral from Buy at Goldman- DJ), RBS -1.7% (downgraded to Sell at ING), SOL -1.5% (cut to Neutral from Buy by Goldman- DJ), HCBK -1.3% (initiated with a Sell at Goldman-DJ). -
R. Wilder kirjutab:
I don't believe that the economy will see a jobless recovery - i.e., the job loss that occurred for almost two years following the end of the 2001 recession (November 2001). ....there is just so much spare capacity - August 2009 capacity utilization rate was just 69.6% compared to 73.5% in November 2001. I just don't see why a firm would opt to buy new capital before it uses its excess capacity - that means hiring workers.
Samas toob NY Post välja, et 16-24 aastaste tööpuudus on USAs üle 52%'i, mis on kõrgeim tase pärast II MSi:
A study from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, a government database, said the damage to a new career by a recession can last 15 years. And if young Americans are not working and becoming productive members of society, they are less likely to make major purchases -- from cars to homes -- thus putting the US economy further behind the eight ball (allikas: NY Post).
Huvitav milline sektor julgeb esimesena hakata töölisi juurde palkama, kui valitsuse stiimulid lõppema hakkavad?
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Pornotööstus.
alright, alright, tegelikult hakkavad nad kõik halbadeks räppariteks hoopis.
Poleks küll uskunud, et kõntsleht midagi huvitavat üles korjab. NYP ju õhtulehe ameerika versioon. -
Turul täna käive siis viimaste aegade madalaim ning tavapäraseks saanud ostusurve on hoos. NYSE 350 mln vs midday avg of 520 mln; NASDAQ 899 mln vs midday avg of 1.07 bln
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Naftafutuurid ~1% järgi andnud ja USD spurdib korralikult EUR vastu. Kas tug ka kergelt järgi tuleb?
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Päris huvitavalt on keegi tükkide kaupa müümas. Turg korra jõnksatab ja siis näritakse jälle ülespoole. Samas tick ei tee jõnksu peale teist nägugi:)
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'Toxic' rally offers hope of US asset write-ups-- FT
Before the market opened, the Financial Times posted a story regarding the prospect of banks doing write ups as 'toxic' asset values improved. Here are some excerpts from the story: 'The recent rally in the markets for "toxic" securities could deliver a significant boost to US banks' third-quarter earnings if financial groups decide to book accounting gains on assets that caused them billions of dollars in losses during the crisis. Wall Street executives and analysts say the noteworthy rise in prices of mortgage-backed securities and other formerly battered debt offers banks the first meaningful chance to "write up" some of the value of these distressed assets. In the past three months, the Markit ABX index, which tracks securities backed by home loans such as subprime mortgages issued to borrowers with weak credit, has gained more than 30%, as investors rediscovered their risk appetite and the US government flooded the debt markets with liquidity. The extent of the write-ups is difficult to predict because of banks' complex balance sheets and uneven use of accounting rules... Senior US bankers say the size of the write-ups will depend on how aggressively financial institutions take advantage of the rallying credit markets. Some executives believe auditors and boards will advise banks to be cautious. They point out the market for toxic assets has been fairly thin; suggests that the price increases could be short-lived'.
