Börsipäev 2. oktoober
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Tänase päeva naelaks on kindlasti tund aega enne USA turgude avanemist avaldatav septembrikuu tööjõuraport. Konsensusootus on -175 000, mis tähendaks, et võrreldes augustikuuga kaotaks töö vähem inimesi. Goldman Sachs oli aga eile see, kes hoiatas, et nõrgenenud tarbijausalduse ja ISM indeksi taustal langetavad nemad oma ootusi -200 000 pealt -250 000 peale. Töötusmääralt oodatakse tõusmist 9.7% pealt 9.8% peale. Kell 17.00 avaldatakse veel ka augustikuu tehaste tellimuste muutus, millelt oodatakse samaks jäämist.
Eilse korraliku languse järel USA turgudel on ka Aasia turud täna 1% kuni 2.5% miinuses. USA futuurid hetkel -0.3%. -
US NFP oodatust nōrgema tulemuse teemal sahistatakse pāris tublisti, ei imesta kui turg cashi kasuks otsustab.
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Bill Strazzullo ütleb siinses intervjuus, et S&P500 peaks tema arvates kauplema vahemikus 1150 kuni 750 ning õiglane väärtus on ca 950. Soovitab eelkõige neis aktsiates, kus investorid on nautinud suurimaid tõuse, oma kasumeid kaitsma hakata.
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Kui seni on GigaMedia (GIGM) kvartalitulemuste raporteerimise tähtaega muudkui edasi lükatud, siis täna on Briefingu tulemuste kalendris kirjas 6. oktoobri eelturg ja 'confirmed', seega teisipäeval näeme kauaoodatud numbrid ära ja kuuleme, kuidas on ettevõttel edenenud oma pokkeriüksuse müügiplaanid/strateegilise partneri otsimise plaanid. Möödunud kvartali järel avaldas juhtkond lootust, et aasta lõpp saab olema tugevam, seega kindlasti väga suur rõhk sellel, kas juhtkond on oma sõnu aasta lõpu osas kinnitamas või mitte ning kui agressiivset kasvu on suudetud Aasia online mängude osas ikkagi näidata.
Tänase info põhjal olen seisukohal, et GIGM aktsiad on pikaajalise investorite jaoks väga atraktiivselt hinnastatud.
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UBS on tõstnud Apple’i (AAPL) hinnasihi $265 dollari peale. Varasemast ca 56% kõrgema hinnasihi taga on iPhone’i müügitulude kõrged ootused. Morgan Stanley on samuti tõstnud iPhone’I jätkuva populaarsuse tõttu CY10 müügitulude prognoose ja kergitanud Apple’i hinnasihi $210 dollari peale (overweight soovitusega). UBSi analüütikute hinnasiht on Bloombergi andmetel kõrgeim & tekitab eelturul ostuhuvi.
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Piper Jaffray langetas Nokia (NOK) soovituse neutraalse peale & hinnasiht toodi $16 dollari pealt $14 dollarile. Analüütikud ei usu, et Nokia suudab enne 2010. aasta teist poolt oma tooteportfelli atraktiivseks muuta. NOK on omakorda eelturul rohkem kui protsendi miinuses.
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September Nonfarm Payrolls -263K vs -175K consensus, August revised to -201K from -216K
September Unemployment Rate 9.8% vs 9.8% consensus, prior 9.7% -
V-shaped recovery? I doubt it
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Bank of America to Pay $713 Million in TARP Preferred Dividends
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Oodatust nõrgema tööjõuraporti peale on USA turud päeva alustamas ca 1%lisest miinusest.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -1.75%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -2.30%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.63%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.93%
Rootsi OMX 30 -2.07%
Venemaa MICEX -4.67%
Poola WIG -2.15%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.47%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.77%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq N/A (börs suletud)
Tai Set 50 -0.38%
India Sensex 30 N/A (börs suletud) -
JPM soovitas hommikul vähendada Euroopa tsükliliste sektorite osakaalu portfellis:
JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists advised investors to trim so-called cyclical stocks in European holdings, they wrote in a report today. Investors should now have a “neutral” strategy between economic-sensitive shares and “defensives,” the note by Mislav Matejka and Emmanuel Cau said. JPMorgan previously advised an “overweight” position in “cyclical” companies.
USA kehv PMI (<50) ja tänane tööjõuraport peaks investorid ka USA tsükliliste ettevõtete suhtes väga ettevaatlikuks muutma.
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Critical Test for Dip-Buyers
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/2/2009 9:11 AM EDT
The jobs numbers were poor, and we are trading down in the premarket. This is a critical test of the dip-buyers. If they continue to have the same resolve they demonstrated over the past several months, they should show up here fairly soon. They need to catch the bears by surprise once again, but there is no question that this is a very precarious technical position right now, and if we do get a bounce going, there is going to be a lot of skepticism about how far it might carry.
I'm looking for at least one good bounce attempt in the early going, but sentiment is shifting very fast right now, and all those folks who were so anxious to buy the dips are losing some of their confidence. Proceed with extreme caution, and don't count on yet another quick V-shaped recovery.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SMSC +3.3%... M&A news: FMX +1.4% (extending gains from reports that co is in talks over beer business deal)... Other news: TELK +25.3% (announces publication of 'positive' Phase 1-2a results of a multicenter study of TELCYTA in combination with Carboplatin and Paclitaxel in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer), IMMU +10.5% (still checking), QLTI +10.2% (completed the sale of all of the shares of its wholly-owned U.S. subsidiary, QLT USA), ONCY +8.8% (reaches special protocol assessment agreement with the FDA on design of phase 3 trial for REOLYSIN in head and neck cancers), CIT +8.5% (launches restructuring plan), NOC +3.9% (beats Boeing in $3.8 bln tanker service work - Reuters.com), FSLR +3.7% (will replace Wyeth in the S&P 500; initiated with a Buy at Janney Montgomery), FNFG +1.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CMCSA +1.1% (Comcast, NBC in deal talks - WSJ; upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo)... Analyst comments: GNVC +6.8% (initiated with Buy at Merriman), DWA +3.6% (raised to Conviction Buy from Buy by Goldman Sachs - DJ), SCHW +3.3% (light volume; initiated with a Buy at Collins Stewart), AAPL +0.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RECN -4.1% GPN -1.4% (light volume)... Select financial related names showing weakness: RBS -6.9%, AEG -6.6%, MBI -6.3%, ING -6.2%, AIB -6.1%, AIG -5.4%, IRE -4.9%, LYG -4.8%, HBAN -4.5%, FITB -4.4%, RF -4.0%, LNC -3.6%, GNW -3.2%, UBS -2.9%, PNC -2.9% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette), DB -2.9%, WFC -2.4%, C -2.2% (ests lowered at Credit Suisse), MET -2.2%, CS -2.0%, BAC -2.0% (ests lowered at Credit Suisse), MS -2.1% (Invesco leads in race for Van Kampen - WSJ), USB -2.0%, JPM -1.9% (ests lowered at Credit Suisse), HBC -1.9%, AZ -1.6%, BBV -1.5%, GS -1.5%, STD -1.4%... Select metals/mining names trading lower: NG -5.5%, CDE -4.8%, MT -3.0%, BHP -2.8%, BBL -2.7%, RTP -2.1% (downgraded to Hold at Canaccord), HMY -1.9%, VALE -1.7%... Select oil/gas related names seeing early weakness: RIG -2.1%, DVN -2.1%, SLB -2.0%, SU -1.9%... Select casino related names trading lower: MGM -5.3%, LVS -4.6%, MPEL -3.7%, WYNN -2.4%... Other news: ETRM -84.8% (announces preliminary results of its EMPOWER study; study did not meet its primary and secondary efficacy endpoints), EPEX -28.3% (announces sale of substantially all of its assets, agreement with senior secured debt holders and files for reorganization under chapter 11), PCX -6.7% (still checking), YRCW -5.9% (still checking), PGH -4.0% (announces changes to value creation strategy; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Adams), F -4.2% (Cruel September for car makers - WSJ), VE -3.1% (still checking)... Analyst comments: WGO -4.0% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at RW Baird), NOK -3.4% (downgraded to Neutral at Piper), XTO -3.2% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche). -
Reutersi kommentaar tööjõuraportile:
The pivotal payroll report came in lower than expected and has driven stock futures to new lows for the move while pulling yields also to new lows as 10s approach the crucial 3.07%/3.05% zone. The miss in payrolls vs consensus was due to government jobs declining -53k - budgets are forcing state and local layoffs - but job losses are losses of consumer income no matter how you slice it. More concerning was that private service jobs reverted to its trend from January, -94k from August -50k, we believe that the market has not even dealt with the idea that many job losses will never return - structural unemployment.
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EUR/USD ei taha ära kukkuda ja on tõusnud 1.46'st kõrgemale.
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August Factory Orders -0.8% vs 0.0% consensus, prior revised to +1.4% from +1.3%
