Börsipäev 5. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Nädalavahetusel on Roubini andnud Bloombergile intervjuu (link siin) ja kinnitanud oma vaadet, et V-kujulist põrget majanduses ei tule - parimal juhul võime saada midagi U-kujulist, kus stabiliseerutakse ühel tasemel ära ja tõusu jätkumine võtab omajagu aega. Samuti räägitakse üldiselt majanduse stimuleerimisest, aktsiaturgudest ja paljust muust. Aktsiaturgudest arvab Roubini, et tõus on olnud liiga suur, liiga kiire ning et peamiselt lihtsalt üleliigse likviidsuse poolt põhjustatud ning Roubini usub, et aktsiaturud võivad praegustelt tasemetelt läbi teha olulise korrektsiooni
Täna kell 17.00 teatatakse ISM teenindusindeks septembrikuu kohta - augustis oli näit 48.4 punkti ning septembrilt oodatakse 50.0 punktilist näitu.
Sel nädalal näeme ka esimesi tulemuste teatajaid - Alcoa (AA) teatab oma numbrid kolmapäeval pärast turu sulgumist ning teeb otsa lahti 3. kvartali tulemustele.
Esmaspäeval pärast turgu tuleb oma numbritega Mosaic (MOS), teisipäeval enne turgu GigaMedia (GIGM), ja Pepsi Bottling (PBG) ning pärast turgu YUM! Brands (YUM), kolmapäeval enne turgu Costco (COST) ja Family Dollar (FDO) ja neljapäeval enne turgu PepsiCo (PEP),
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Reedese tööjõuturu raportiga sai selgeks, et võrreldes tööhõive kõrgpunktiga on käesoleva kriisi jooksul kaotatud protsentuaalselt rohkem töökohtasid kui mis tahes muul ajal alates Suurest Depressioonist. Esimest korda ületab uue töökoha leidmiseks kuluv keskmine aeg riigipoolse toetuse standardset pikkust. Tavaliselt toetab valitsus inimest 26 nädalat pärast töö kaotamist, kuid antud kriisi jooksul on seda perioodi pikendatud kaks korda, ulatudese tänaseks 46 nädalani. Osariikides, kus töötus ületab 6%, küündib toetuse periood 59 nädalani. Lilla joonega graafik kajastab 5.4 miljonini kasvanud ameeriklaste arvu, kes on olnud vähemalt 27 nädalat ilma tööta, moodustades 35.6% kõikidest töötutest.
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Mida see võiks Vimpelcom aktsionäride jaoks tähendada?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/telenor-altimo-to-combine-vimpelcom-kyivstar-2009-10-05?siteid=yhoof2 -
European Monetary Affairs chief Joaquin Almunia says he hopes Euro will align with "fundamentals", hinting currency is overvalued
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DB makromeeskond avaldas neljapäeval bullish arvamuse aktsiate suhtes (samas tunnistatakse, et tegu võib olla minimulli tekkimisega):
"...improving economic data in the context of still extremely accommodative fiscal and monetary policies and abundant market liquidity and provides the perfect mix for a range of risky assets.
MSi Euroopa aktsiastrateegid kirjutasid reedel (loe pikemalt):
a) Fundamentals — earnings rebound more favourable for equities, as it leads to ’shareholder-friendly’ corporate actions
b) Valuations - equities look cheap versus high-quality credit
c) The ‘quality’ disconnect — better to own high-quality equities than credit
Tänan soovitavad Credit Suisse'i strateegid hoida rohkem aktsiaid portfellis ja tõstsid S&P500 indeksi 2010. a EPSi ootuse $71 dollari pealt $76 dollarile.
"The S&P 500 may end 2009 at 1,100 because a growing U.S. economy and expanding earnings will spur investors to allocate more money to equities, the strategists wrote in a report today (bloomberg)."
Strateegid üritavad ikka iga hinna eest turgu veel üles rääkida. Londonis hedge-fondi juhtiv C. Odey usub:
"If they print enough money, stocks can go anywhere they want to.”
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Karude seisukoha võtab kokku omanimelises firmas hedge-fondi juhtiv Bill Fleckenstein:
“You cannot print your way to prosperity”
Siin on väga hea raport alles jäänud karudest.
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DB tiimi soovitused:
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ERXX, FT's:
Minority shareholders in Vimpelcom, Russia’s number two mobile operator and the current listed entity, would receive one depositary receipt for each Vimpelcom depositary receipt currently held, or be bought out at 0.05 kopecks per depositary receipt.
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Kuigi pullide arvates on double-dip majanduslangusega stsenaariumid väga haruldased on nii mõnedki tippjuhid seda siiski ootamas. Kui aga oodatakse raskete aegade jätkumist, siis tõenäoliselt uusi kapitaliinvesteeringuid ettevõtete laiendamisse ei tehta, mis tähendab, et uusi töökohti juurde ei looda.
HSBC chief fears a second downturn - Financial Times (55.01). Financial Times reports Michael Geoghegan, chief executive of HSBC (HBC), is so convinced there will be a second downturn in the coming months that he plans to delay any rush to expand the bank. Mr Geoghegan was speaking after HSBC announced a shake-up of its governance 10 days ago. He is now responsible for strategic issues that previously lay with Stephen Green, chairman. "I'm not as convinced we're through the worst as others are. The reality is that profits will be quite reduced." His comments come in spite of expectations that in his amplified role he will push HSBC to grow more aggressively.
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Goldman Sachs on täna USA panku kiitmas. Wells Fargo (WFC) aktsiasoovitus tõstetakse 'osta' peale ning Capital One (COF) 'veendumusega osta' peale. COFi hinnasihi tõstab Goldman Sachs $37 pealt $44 peale (turuhinnast ca 33% kõrgemal) ning Wells Fargo oma $31 pealt $35 peale (turuhinnast ca 33% kõrgemal). Samuti kinnitatakse oma 'veendumusega ostusoovitust' JPMorgan Chase (JPM) ja Bank of America (BAC) aktsiatele.
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Samuti on Goldman Sachs täna kommenteerimas Telenori ja Altimo kokkulepet ühendada oma osalused Vimpelcommis ja Kyivstaris. Kokkuvõttes vaatab GS neid arenguid kui neutraalse või isegi positiivsena ning jätab oma $23.4lise hinnasihi NYSEl kauplevatele VIPi aktsiatele alles.
We think the deal is positive for VimpelCom as it removes the long-termshareholder conflict risk. The new company will own the best in the classwireless assets in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan as well as one of thebest Russian fixed line and broadband operations. While the impliedKyivstar multiple is at a premium to VimpelCom’s own 2010E EV/EBITDAof 4x, in our view this is an acceptable price for eliminating theshareholder conflict and getting control of the best asset in Ukraine. Weexpect investors to rerate the combined entity from the current depressedlevels of VimpelCom’s valuation on the removal of the corporategovernance risks and addition of the best in class assets. Our VimpelComprice target is unchanged.
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Long HBAN @ $4.65 avg.
Nädalavahetusel sai HBAN FDICi käest endale ühe failed panga (Warren Bank) varad. Tehing suhteliselt väike, aga näitab regulaatorite positiivsemat suhtumist panka peale hiljutisi kapitalitõstmisi. Ühtlasi parandab see natuke kapitaliseeritust.
Põhimõtteliselt see peaks olema katalüsaatoriks, mis paneb investorid aktsiat teistmoodi vaatama ja sellesse investeerima.
Täna veel kõvasti positiivseid kommentaare pangasektori kohta, mis võiks samuti kaasa aidata, et just täna võiks liikumine toimuda.
Ei ole väga kõva convictionit sellega, ei ole selline sektor, milles ma ennast väga kindlalt tunneks. -
USA turud alustavad päeva ca 0.3% kuni 0.5%lise plussiga.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.12%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.13%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.02%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.04%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.75%
Venemaa MICEX -0.15%
Poola WIG +0.26%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.59%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.26%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.94%
Tai Set 50 -1.02%
India Sensex 30 -1.56% -
Stay Flexible
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/5/2009 8:46 AM EDT
"True genius resides in the capacity for evaluation of uncertain, hazardous and conflicting information."
-- Winston Churchill
After hitting highs two weeks ago, the major indices have been steadily losing momentum. We have had a few similar pullbacks since the big rally began in March, and each time the market not only found its footing fairly quickly but resumed very strong upside momentum.
There is no question that we have had some technical deterioration, especially last week, and that means we have to take some defensive action. The bigger question, however, is whether this is just another routine pullback within a massive uptrend or the beginning of a real change in character. Looking for the market to actually top out has been one of the most frustrating and costly approaches you could take for months now. A lot of folks have been skeptical about the economy and firmly believe, as Professor Nouriel Roubini stated this weekend, that "markets have gone up too much, too soon, too fast."
The problem for the bears is that they have held that belief for a while now and have been constantly frustrated as the market keeps going. These skeptics have turned into very powerful dip-buyers because they are so sick of being left behind as the market keeps trending higher. A lot of the folks who are buying pullbacks aren't aggressive bulls; they are just tired of being underinvested in a trending market, so they dip their toe in whenever we have a little pullback.
Although the technical conditions of the market look shaky after four straight days of decline, it is probably a mistake to write off the dip-buyers who were so tenacious for so long. They may move to the sidelines and take a rest, but they haven't been hit hard enough to give up on what has been an extremely profitable approach for so long.
The bulls have two big positives working for them right now. First, earnings season is starting up, and expectations are going to be very high after the very strong reaction to reports in the second quarter. The market went almost straight up after Intel (INTC) kicked off the second quarter with a good report. There was a flood of better-than-expected reports, and we ended up with several weeks of extremely strong momentum. Expectations may turn out to be too high for the third quarter, but market players are likely to be optimistic at first, and they should help us for the next couple weeks.
The other big positive driver for this market is liquidity. With interest rates at nearly zero and a huge amount of government stimulus and bailouts at work, there is a lot of cash looking for a place to go, and quite a bit of it is being parked in equities. That has been a huge driving force for this rally, and it isn't going to suddenly end.
I believe that the very high levels of liquidity are going to prevent the market from doing a sudden U-turn back down. We may start to see a downtrend develop, but it won't be the inverse of what we saw on the way up. It will be much more gradual, and we will have many rallies and spikes along the way.
In summary, the market has some troubling technical aspects, but it has conditions in place that can help support it and even drive further rallies. While we want to be more cautious given the bigger picture, we don't want to be inflexible and close-minded. The market has issues, but there are also positives that will help to hold things aloft.
This morning, we have Goldman upgrading big-cap banks Wells Fargo (WFC) and Capital One (COF) , an upgrade of Research In Motion (RIMM) by Needham and some weakness in the dollar that are helping matters. Overseas markets are slightly positive.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TRID +16.3%, LOCM +7.4% (light volume)... M&A news: OPTV +15.0% (Kudelski commences tender offer to acquire OpenTV for $1.55/share in cash), BRCD +11.6% (Brocade up for sale - WSJ)... Select financial related stocks showing strength: NMR +7.3% (prices the issuance of new shares and a secondary offering of shares), COF +4.7% (raised to Conviction Buy from Buy by Goldman Sachs - DJ), WFC +4.1% (raised to Buy from Neutral by Goldman Sachs - DJ), RBS +4.0% (Standard Chartered, RBS deal breaks down: Report - Economic Times), HIG +3.0%, RF +2.8%, PUK +2.7%, PNC +2.6%, GNW +2.2%, AIG +2.0%, C +2.0%, USB +1.8%, MS +1.7%, JPM +1.7%, BAC +1.6% (BofA to select emergency CEO - WSJ), LYG +1.3%, ING +1.3%, GS +1.1%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: RTP +3.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at RBS), GOLD +2.6%, AEM +2.4%, MT +2.1% (Mittal set to quit $20 bln Indian steel project - Financial Times), BBL +1.3%... Select casino related names trading higher: LVS +2.9%, WYNN +2.0%... Other news: DEPO +24.7% (announces positive top-line results from Phase 3 clinical trial of DM-1796 in postherpetic neuralgia; initiated with a Buy at Merriman), AVII +15.4% (receives expanded contract from U.S. Department of Defense to develop its drug candidate for the treatment of Junin virus infection ; AVI BioPharma mentioned positively in Barron's), PPHM +14.3% (reports positive results from Phase II Bavituximab lung cancer trial), MRM +5.9% (light volume; sets quarterly record of $12.5 mln for new orders), MTW +5.7% (still checking), VIP +4.5% (confirms decision by its two major shareholders, Altimo and Telenor, to combine ownership of VimpelCom and Kyivstar under a new company, VimpelCom Ltd), XNPT +4.4% (light volume; Positive Ph. II results for XP13512 reported for subjects with post-herpetic neuralgia), WMS +1.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: MTW +7.5% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), SYT +3.6% (upgraded to Overweight at Credit Suisse).
Allapoole avanevad:
General news: FOLD -26.5% (announces preliminary results suggest that treatment with Plicera was generally well tolerated, with no serious adverse events reported; clinically meaningful improvements in key measures of disease were observed; downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan and downgraded to Underperform at Wedbush Morgan), NURO -13.3% (filed for a ~19.03 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders), SCLN -7.2% (Phase 2 Trial of RP101 in late-stage pancreatic cancer discontinued), VE -1.9% (still checking)... Analyst comments: AMAG -2.8% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), AMD -1.9% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at FBR Capital), VLO -1.8% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank), RMD -1.0% (downgraded to Hold at Canaccord Adams). -
Piimahinna probleemid ja sellega seonduvad üle Euroopa Liidulised protestiaktsioonid on jõudnud ka Businessweeki:
Briefing: BusinessWeek reports hundreds of dairy farmers drove tractors into Belgium's capital to pressure EU farm ministers on the milk price crisis as 20 of 27 nations called for more protection from the volatile world market. Farmers want regulation to shield them from volatile free market prices that have collapsed milk prices. Some 20 EU nations met ahead of the meeting, agreeing to push for a new system to regulate the market once the EU phases out market-distorting quotas in 2015. -
ISM teenindusindeks 50.9 punkti vs oodatud 50.0 punkti.
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Bill Gross ütleb, et järgnevatel aastatel võiks aktsiaturgudelt oodata pigem ca 5%list tõusu, mitte seni tavapäraseks saanud 10% kuni 12%. Eks osaliselt püüab mees muidugi investorite jaoks võlakirju 'ilusamaks rääkida', aga teisalt jälle päris jahu ta tavaliselt suust välja ka ei aja... Link siin.
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Turul taas pilt sama, mis enne langust valitses. Kesise käibega tiksutakse üha uutesse tippudesse. Ei tahaks eriti uskuda, et sellise tempoga päevalõpuks uutesse tippudesse minnakse.
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Turul toimub midagi imelikku. Ähk tuli mingi hea uudis või midagi.
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Käive hakkab juba päris kokku kuivama, ootaks üsna pea kummalegi poole suuremt liikumist.
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Tänased positiivsed kommentaarid finantssektoris annavad finantsile tuge, kuid HSBC CEO sõnavõtt teeb vähemalt mind küllaltki ettevaatlikuks kogu sektori osas. HSBC paistab olevat seni üsna hästi kogu kriisi vältel kordineerinud oma tegemisi.
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TICK käis +1000 ja hetkel püsimas +800 juures, ostusurve on väga tugev, kuid turu käive keskmisest jupp maad madalam.
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Oodatakse häid tulemusi. Turg pidi kukkuma hakkama pärast C tulemuste avalikustamist.
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vt etv
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ETVst algab praegu tänane Välisilma film Pangakrahh
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Eessõna oli seekord siis Kristjan Lepikult!
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Ah kinni see haige crap HBAN, ei liigu see kuskile.
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jim
Selle eest, sinu neljapäeval antud kaheks päevaks long ROC, liigub hästi. -
ROC panin ma ise juba ammu, st reedel mingi $17 juures kinni.
Ja praegu siit ei ole küll enam mitte mingit eelist ei ühes ega teises suunas. Bounce põhjusega võrreldes liiga kõva allamüügi järgselt on välja mängitud ja veel natuke pealegi võibolla.
