Börsipäev 7. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Esmaspäevane tõus sai eile turgudel jätku ning vaadates Aasias valitsevat optimismi ja ca 0.3% plussis olevaid USA indeksite futuure, võib hommikul oodata kõrgemal avanemist ka Euroopa aktsiaturgudel.
Kuna viimased päevad pole makrouudiseid eriti pakkunud, otsivad ostjad tuge spekulatsioonist, et ettevõtete kolmanda kvartali majandustulemused saavad olema arvatust paremad. Seda enam tasub jälgida, mida räägib majanduse baromeeter Alcoa täna pärast turgu, mil alumiiniumitootja oma raportiga tulemustehooajale avalöögi annab. Konsensus ootab aktsiakahjumiks 11 senti ja käibeks 4.55 miljardit dollarit.
Euroopas võiks ainsana huvi pakkuda Saksamaa tehaste tellimuste näitaja avaldamine kell 13.00.
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Enne USA turu avanemist avaldab oma tulemused ka Costco (COST), Family Dollar (FDO) ja Monsanto (MON). COSTilt oodatakse tulusid $22.36 miljardit ja EPSi $0.77, FDO'lt tulusid $1.81 miljardit ja EPSi $0.41 ning MONilt tulusid $1.97 miljardit ja EPSi $0.01.
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Source: Reuters(dated 07/10/2009) Brussels, Oct 6 - EU antitrust regulators raided several pharmaceutical companies suspected of violating EU antitrust rules on Tuesday as they stepped up their crackdown on drugmakers seen as delaying the launch of cheaper medicines. France's Sanofi-Aventis* confirmed that it had been raided and that it was collaborating with EU antitrust regulators.
Switzerland's Novartis said the European Commission had visited offices of its generics unit, Sandoz, in France, but declined to comment on the nature of the investigation. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries said EU officials visited its Paris offices as part of a broader probe into uncompetitive practices within the French generic industry.British drugmakers GlaxoSmithKline and AstraZeneca, Switzerland's Roche, Germany's Merck KGaA and Bayer, and Denmark's Novo Nordisk and Lundbeck all said they were not aware of any raids on Tuesday. -
Joel kirjutasid 02.10, kui seni on GigaMedia (GIGM) kvartalitulemuste raporteerimise tähtaega muudkui edasi lükatud, siis täna on Briefingu tulemuste kalendris kirjas 6. oktoobri eelturg ja 'confirmed'! Paistab, et ka seekord oli oletus.
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Nii ta on jah... ootame edasi.
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GigaMedia on ametlikult öelnud, et nad riliisivad vastava PR-i 1-2 nädalat ENNE ning alles seejärel, PR-is mainitud kuupäeval, riliisitakse aruanded. Tõenäoliselt saab tegemist olema mingi suure uudisega.
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gcap, eks siin spekuleerimiseks ruumi ju on. GIGM rääkis juba Q1 09 tulemustejärgses konverentsikõnes, et on leidnud 2 potentsiaalset huvilist oma Euroopa online netimängurluse üksusele. Seega iseenesest on võimalik, et tulemuste avaldamisega venitatakse just sel põhjusel, kuna ollakse mingit laadi kokkuleppe saavutamise lävel ning ei soovita enne lõplike allkirjade andmist analüütikute küsimuste rahe alla sattuda. Selle kohta muidugi ühtegi kinnitust ei ole, seega tegu puhtalt spekulatiivse mõttega.
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Venitamine on olnud üldjuhul negatiivne märk. Eks näis.
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vihje kauplejatele:
“The momentum for gold is higher from here,” Leonard Kaplan said. “The Fed has sent so much money into the market, so everything has to go up, including gold.” :-)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXYAcH3JiSo0 -
Costco (COST) reports Q4 (Aug) earnings of $0.83 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the First Call consensus of $0.77; revenues fell 3.1% year/year to $22.38 bln vs the $22.36 bln consensus.
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Eurotsooni teise kvartali lõplikku SKT-d korrigeeriti QoQ baasil varasema -0.1%-lt -0.2%-le ja YoY näitu -4.7%-lt -4.8%-le. Suhteliselt ebakindlal pinnasel alustanud Euroopa on praeguseks kergesse plussi jõudnud. Veidi üllatav oli DAX-i liikumine ülespoole, kui uudis välja tuli.
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EUROZONE: 2Q GDP SLIPS 0.2% vs 0.1 consensus.
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Kulla hind, mis on uutele tippudele tõusnud, võib Barclays Capital Global Commodity Technical Strategy tiimi sõnul sõita $1500 dollarini:
Having rallied “off the charts” we are left to resort to projections and extrapolated trendlines to forecast where the move might stop. Initial resistance is found in the 1050 area but that is way too conservative given the spring board that a wide 18-month range provides. We believe gold has significant upside potential into 2010 (channel resistance currently is at 1370; history suggests a run at 1500). (vaata graafikut siit)
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Saksamaa tehaste tellimuste kasv kolmandas kvartalis jätkus, kui augusti näitaja paranes juuliga võrreldes 1.4%, mis osutus Bloombergi küsitletud analüütikute prognoosist 0.3 protsendipunkti võrra paremaks.
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Lisaks kullale on meeleolu ka ülejäänud toorainesektoris muutnud väga positiivseks. J. U. Stewart (Seven Investment Management) tuletab sektori hindade tõusu puhul meelde nõrga dollari rolli:
"Commodity prices are fooling us, because you have the cloak of the dollar over them. Take off the cloak and commodities will look weak" (reuters)
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Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0.49%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.54%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.64%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.74%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0.84%
Venemaa MICEX +0.55%
Poola WIG -0.96%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.11%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.07%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.62%
Tai Set 50 +1.39%
India Sensex 30 -0.90% -
Mind the Pattern
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/7/2009 8:41 AM EDT
To understand is to perceive patterns.
-- Isaiah Berlin
If recent patterns repeat themselves, this market is going to go higher very quickly and should test new highs soon. Starting with the low in March, the typical pattern has been poor action that takes us to the brink of a breakdown, then a low-volume bounce that gains momentum in the next couple of days and then continues straight up with hardly a pause. The moves in March, July and early September all followed this pattern.
The key to the action was that we went straight up. The bears were immediately squeezed to death. No short could withstand those sorts of straight-up moves. But many longs became very frustrated as well because entry points required paying up into strength rather than waiting for a pullback to buy.
Some market players have no problem with chasing strength, but the methodology of many big funds is to constantly try to decrease their average cost of their favorite stocks. They want to buy their favorites when they are going down, not up, and that was almost impossible during some of the moves we experienced --especially the rocket in July.
Conditions are very similar now to what we had in July just before earnings season kicked off. Should we look for it to play out in the same manner, or are things likely to be bumpier this time?
Expectations for earnings are obviously going to be higher than they were last quarter. Last quarter we had one solid report after the next primarily because many folks were still shell-shocked from the great meltdown we had just experienced. It is unlikely that earnings are going to be greeted as warmly this time, but we will have to wait and see how the mood develops.
What we really have to watch for is the tone of the dip-buying -- it's the key to this market. At times lately the dip-buyers have turned rabid. They have been buying the slightest pause in any uptrend and run over all sellers or shorts. They have kept us going regardless of earnings, news, economics or any negative you can think of. It is the pattern of dip-buying that defines this market, and until it changes the bulls are firmly in control.
We have some generally positive news on the wires so far this morning. We're seeing a few upgrades -- like Bank of America (BAC) for the third time this week, and Google (GOOG) with a higher target -- and some OK earnings from Yum! Brands (YUM) and Costco (COST) . It is fairly benign and is the sort of environment in which the dip-buyers have a tendency to jump in very fast should we weaken.
So will the pattern remain what we've seen for more than six months now? There are few indications of any major change at this point, so we need to respect the trend. However, as always, we need to stay vigilant and watch the character of the market for any indications that something new is developing.
Good luck and go get 'em.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HELE +6.1%, FDO +2.7%, ANGO +2.1%, COST +1.8%, MON +1.8%, YUM +1.3%... M&A news: MERX +27.9% (Viasystems and Merix agree to merge; Each Merix share will be converted into approximately 0.11 newly issued shares of Viasystems)... Other news: BSMD +9.2% (reports the publication of a study in which the authors conclude that uterine artery embolization compares favorably to laparoscopic occlusion of uterine arteries in the treatment of uterine leiomyomas), VICL +6.1% (Vical's TransVax CMV vaccine elicits long-term immune responses in phase 2 trial), VG +5.6% (seeing strength following AT&T news that it extends VoIP to 3G network for iPhone), ALU +4.3% (still checking), STEC +4.1% (announces that STEC's Enterprise-class ZeusIOPS Solid State Drives utilized in IBM's Power 595 with PowerVM has set a new record SPC-1 Result with unprecedented performance), BCRX +4.0% (Hearing no EUA needed to sell Peramivir to rest of world), MNRO +3.6% (will replace Atmos Energy in the S&P SmallCap 600), ING +2.4% (Julius Baer buys ING Swiss private bank for CHF520 mln - WSJ), AA +1.5% (seeing strength ahead of earnings after the close), HBC +1.0% (will delay raising dividend if new capital rules come in too hard and fast - UK Times Online), TSRA +1.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: WYN +6.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman-DJ), VIA.B +5.2% (upgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), UA +3.8% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Jaffray), BARE +3.6% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), IHG +2.7% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), ANF +2.3% (upgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), DIS +1.5% (upgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), KO +1.3% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), VALE +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman-DJ), RIMM +0.9% (initiated with a Buy at Jesup & Lamont and initiated with a Buy at MKM Partners).
Allapoole avanevad:
Select oil/gas related names trading lower: BP -1.4%, STO -1.4%, RDS.B -1.3%... Select casino related names modestly pulling back: MGM -1.1%, LVS -1.0%... Other news: AAI -12.1% (announces an offering of $75 million of convertible senior notes and 9 mln shares of common stock), CAR -8.8% (announces a $250 mln sr notes offering), SGMO -7.8% (is offering 636,133 shares of common stock at $7.86 per share), FONR -6.0% (pulling back from yesterday's 30%+ surge higher), SUN -4.3% (announces strategic actions to strengthen competitive position; idles Eagle Point refinery, reduces quarterly dividend to $0.15 per share), LINE -3.8% (announces it plans to make a public offering of 6 mln units of its limited liability company interests), O -2.9% (still checking), T -1.4% (trading ex dividend)... Analyst comments: WTSLA -4.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray), CHTP -3.9% (removed from Best Ideas list at Wedbush), ARO -2.0% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), CEPH -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird). -
US Rep Frank says House OTC derivatives draft bill should undergo "significant change"; confident his committee will get OTC derivatives bill to House floor in Nov - Reuters
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White House confirms Reid, Pelosi to meet with Obama to discuss economy, jobs - Reuters
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1000% kasumit 400k aktsiaga ja 20% sellest 2000%
mõista mõista, mis see oli -
ostsid 80ndatel Microsofti? :)
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täna päevasiseselt, mitte 3 aastase ootamise järel
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Respect, aga miks sellised mehed Abesikiga rinda pista ei taha?
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Kas täna on mingi 24. detsember või 3. juuli vms pühadeeelne päev?
Täiesti olematu käibega väga vaikne loksumine äärmiselt väikeses vahemikus. -
Eks see tulemuste ootus. Kõik hoiavad hinge kinni ja käed nuppudest eemal.
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Rams, 0,01 senti väärt aktsiast sai 0,1-0,2 senti väärt aktsia, i guess?
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Citigroup: CNBC commentator reports that Federal regulators pushed C to retain Egon Zehnder to evaluate mgmt team; says sources believe report reflects positively on CEO Pandit
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0.3 kukkus 0.002ni ja põrkas...
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STTAW ost päeva alguses?
Siis need need ilusad suured aktsiatearvud ja protsendid tähendavad whopping ca 4000 taala kasumit.
Ja rams, miks sa alati selliseid tehinguid TAGANTJÄRGI ütled?
Ma võiks ka igapäevaselt mingeid paremaid palasid välja valida, kui niisama kõvatada tahaks. Kind of useless spam, ain't it?
Tee nagu teised, ütle kohe peale positsiooni võtmist, saavad teised ka reaalajas vähemalt näha ja imetleda. -
GOOG ja GS aasta tippudel ning AAPL saab jälle kena hype. Järjekordne target tõstja väike analüüsimaja Caris ja target $235.
AAPL tulemused peaks tooma päris kena liikumise aktsia hinda , ootused ikka väga kõrgele aetud.
GOOG ja GS liikumine meenutab 2007 aasta oktoobri algust.
GOOG-l muidugi täna CEO poolt toetus:
Google CEO says worst of ad slump is over - Reuters -
Jim, ära jama, 1000% päevas 400K aktsiaga kõlab jumalikult. :D
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need asjad ei toimi kui neist rääkida
ma parem olen spämmiahv, kui oma treidi ära rikun
lihtsalt pole oma elus midagi sellist näinud ja seda oli raske enda teda jätta
pealegi lootsin salamisi saada 20 senti aga tuli "kopikas" -
loomilikult võin reaalajas oma treide postitada tasulisel saidil 100$ 5 minutit -
Väga super, rams, give us a free trial. :D
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Ma ostaks killukese ramsi egost.
...but that would probably kill me :( -
Et oleks viimane tilk egokarikas? ;)
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Hehe, you should know :)
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Kusjuures ma arvan, et see ja järgmine nädal on küllaltki olulised indikaatorid nii majanduse tervise kui turu suuna osas.
Praegu peaks käsil olema kasumihoiatuste hooaeg. Siiamaani üsnagi vaikne olnud, suuremaid hoiatajaid praktiliselt polegi olnud.
Samas pakuks, et keegi enam praegusel hetkel positsiooni võtta ka ei soovi - no miks osta, kui mingisugust korralikku pullbacki pole olnud ja seega "soodsalt saamise" põhjust pole, aga samas võib su ostetud ettevõte igal hetkel kasumihoiatusega välja tulla. Kui soodsalt pakutaks, siis oleks veel mõtet riski võtta, aga praktiliselt kõik on 52 highde juures.. ei ole just kõige mõnusam ostukoht, isegi kui kasumihoiatuse oht on reaalselt üsnagi pisike. Pigem istuda ja oodata need 2 nädalat ära kuni tulemusteni ja siis osta, isegi kui peaks mingi 5% rohkem näiteks maksma siis.. vähemalt on rohkem selgust.
Samas ei ole müüjaid ka, kes siiamaani on istunud aktsiates, sel pole mingit otsest põhjust nüüd just müüma hakata. Nii et käibed võivadki järgmiseks 1,5 nädalaks suhteliselt väiksemaks jääda.
Seda positsioonidest mitteväljumise soovi väljendab vist ka reaktsioon STJ hoiatusele.. see küll müüdi alla, aga ettevõtte enda kommentaaridest ("süüdi on majandus ja healthcare reform", mitte sõnagi selle kohta, et muudatused sales forces vms ettevõttespetiifilised põhjused) hoolimata on kõik kindlad, et sektor on OKOO ja ettevõte (mida siiamaani on kõik ainult kiitnud sigavinge managementi eest) on ise süüdi oma hädades. Mingi 90% analüütikutest räägib seda ja nagu aktsiahinnad näitavad, turg kuulab ja raha voolab konkurentide MDT ja BSX aktsiatesse. Ühesõnaga, enne, kui täiesti käegakatsutavad tõendid, et asi pekkis, EI MÜÜ ja kõik. Ja kui on tõendid, siis müüme ära ja ostame sama sektori teisi ettevõtteid :)
Ehk siis sellel ja järgmisel nädalal võib toimida strateegia: kui 8:30 am seisuga on vähe hoiatajaid ja futuurid nullis või miinuses, siis osta futuure, sest jälle mingi jupike ostjaid julgeb peale tulla.
Muidugi ise ma sellist idiootset strateegiat kasutama ei hakka :) -
US Commerce considers imposing import duties on China pipe - CNBC
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Hearing the notable relative strength we've seen today in MA +4.6% & V +3.5% is due to speculation that the House Financial Svcs Cmte will impose less onerous rules on credit card co's than originally feared
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August Consumer Credit -$12.0 bln vs $10.0 bln consensus, prior revised to $19.0 bln from -$21.6 bln
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Alcoa prelim $0.04 vs ($0.09) First Call consensus; revs $4.62 bln vs $4.55 bln First Call consensus
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UBS annab kõigile pankadele pihta..
PNC WFC BBT FITB STI CMA saavad kõik Sell reitingu ja mitte väga ilusaid kommentaare.
Ma veel mõtlen, kas
a) Turul on sügavalt savi sellest nagu tavaliselt kõigest negatiivsest viimasel ajal
või
b) See toob kogu turgu allapoole homme.
Natuke kaldun variandi b poole, aga ei julge positsiooni võtta. -
Päris huvitav call UBSi poolt. Näiteks WFC hinnasihiks on seatud $20... see on turul olevast hinnast üle 30% madalam.
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Homse osas ei tasu ka AA mõju unustada.
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AA pole minu meelest kunagi turgu liigutanud. Selline huvitav sentimentaalne hooaja avapauk lihtsalt.
