Börsipäev 14. oktoober
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Kui USA turud lõpetasid eilse päeva kerge kaotusega (tervishoid ja finantssektor juhtimas languspoolt), siis Aasias on indeksid kauplemas kõrgemal tänu Hiina ekspordi oodatust väiksemale langusele, Austraalia tarbimisusalduse jõudmisele kahe aasta kõrgeimale tasemele ning Inteli üsna julgustavatele majandustulemustele eile õhtul, mis maailma suurima kiibitootja aktsia järelturul üle 4% kõrgemale viisid. Inteli aktsia atraktiivsus on muuhulgas silma jäänud ka Marc Faberile, kes on maailmamajandust põhjalikult lahkamas värskes Bloombergi intervjuus.
Tänase päeva olulisimaks makrouudiseks on septembrikuu jaemüük USA-s (15.30), mille headline jääb cash-for-clunkers programmi lõpetamise tõttu eelmise kuuga võrreldes tõenäoliselt madalamaks (-2.1%). Viimast välja jättes, võis eelmise kuu tarbimine näidata konsensuse arvates siiski kerget kasvu (0.2%). Õhtupoole avaldab FED oma eelmise kohtumise protokolli.
Oma majandustulemused avaldab teiste seas enne turgu JPMorgan, kellelt konsensus ootab 0.49 dollarilist aktsiakasumit ja 2.48 miljardi dollari suurust müügitulu.
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Meie tulemuste tabeli saab leida siit. Eileõhtused numbrid ja aktsiate liikumised nüüd tabelisse lisatud. Seni näeme tendentsi, kus kasumiootusi ületatakse, kuid tulude ootuste täitmisega on ettevõtteil raskusi ning kui numbrid ei ole just suurepärased, siis on aktsiad altid ka allapoole tulema.
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USA maagaasisektori hiid ja LHV Maailma Pro üks investeerimisidee Chesapeake Energy (CHK) tõstis eile õhtul oma tootmismahtude kasvu prognoosi.
2009. aasta tootmiskasvu prognoos tõsteti 4% kuni 5% pealt 5% kuni 6% peale võrreldes 2008. aastaga.
2010. aasta tootmiskasvu prognoos tõsteti 7% kuni 8% pealt 8% kuni 10% peale võrreldes 2009. aastaga.
2011. aastaks oodatakse mahtude kasvu 12% kuni 14% võrreldes 2010. aastaga.
Aktsia tegi eile uue 52-nädala tipu:
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EUR/USD pōmmutas paar korda yle 1.4900, oodata on ka kiiret liikumist 1.5000 suunas.
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Börsidel tõeline eufooria - USA tähtsamate indeksite futuurid on ca 1.3% kõrgemal ja kauplevad uutel 12-13 kuu tippudel. Praeguse seisuga tõotaks Dow Jones tööstusindeks avaneda täpselt 10 000 punkti pealt, kus kaubeldi viimati 2008. aasta 7. oktoobril.
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JP Morgan Chase prelim $0.82 vs $0.52 First Call consensus
JP Morgan Chase prelim revs $28.78 bln vs $24.96 bln First Call consensus -
andke aga hagu...
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seda see turg lajatas ülesse
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Päris korralikult ületas JPM analüütikute ootusi. Arvan, et mitmed teised pangad suudavad sama:
- head 3Q performance finantsturgutelt, varade väärtus suurenes ja klientide tehingute aktiivsus samuti
- madalad intressikulud
- "halbade laenude" stabiliseerumine suvekuudel
Tõenäosus päris suur, et lähinädalail näeme uusi tippe teisepool lompi. Endiselt kehva makropilt jääb heade kasumite kõrval teisejärgulisemaks. -
Ma kohe varsti küsin, kas selline termin kui "Karu" ka enam eksisteerib.
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September Retail Sales -1.5% vs -2.1% consensus, prior revised to +2.2% from +2.7%
September Retail Sales ex-auto +0.5% vs +0.2% consensus, prior revised to +1.0% from +1.1% -
Inteli & JPMi tulemused on aktsiad eelturul rohkem kui protsendi võrra plusspoolele tõstnud. Jaemüügi peale erilist reaktsiooni ei olnud & neg. poole pealt võib lisada "excluding for gasoline, sales still fell 1.7%".
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Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +2.37%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +2.03%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.93%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.97%
Rootsi OMX 30 +2.71%
Venemaa MICEX +3.15%
Poola WIG +2.13%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.16%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.95%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.17%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.68%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.72%
Tai Set 50 -1.95%
India Sensex 30 +1.20% -
Intel Keeps the Euphoria Flowing
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/14/2009 9:14 AM EDT
That's the difference between me and the rest of the world! Happiness isn't good enough for me! I demand euphoria!
--Calvin, from Bill Watterson's Calvin and Hobbes
After the very strong reaction to positive second-quarter earnings, it was easy to believe that the market might have a hard time repeating the behavior. Back in July we saw a euphoric reaction to very strong earnings from Intel (INTC) , which spread to the whole market and kept us going straight up for the entire month.
Last night Intel reported another dramatically positive earnings report, and the response this morning is again quite positive. But this isn't just about Intel. In fact, Intel has a habit of underperforming the rest of the jubilant market when it posts a strong report. Right now it looks like the rest of the market is catching fire, no matter how Intel may end up trading today.
Part of the reason that Intel itself isn't that important once it ignites the action is that many folks are being caught by surprise. The idea that we'd see a repeat of what happened back in July was difficult enough to embrace, but what makes it even harder is that the technical conditions are extended and we don't have a good base to support a further straight-up move.
One of the most difficult things about this market since the March low has been its tendency to break the standard rules of technical analysis. It consistently has rallied on low volume and has seen sustained bounces without any good consolidation.
The really positive thing that the Intel action does for the market isn't necessarily the gap-up move we are seeing this morning, but rather the fact that it creates even more anxious dip-buying. The dip-buyers have been the key feature of this market since it began to run. There is an extremely large group of folks who just can't bring themselves to believe in this action, but we keep on running, so the only tactic they are able to embrace is to buy any and all weakness.
We have been climbing a giant "wall of worry" for many months. Folks just can't reconcile their feelings about the economy with this very strong market. They want to be careful, but the market won't let them be, and then they are smacked in the head yet again by this euphoric earnings news, so what choice do they have? Do they keep trying to fight it or do they look for ways to put capital to work?
The bottom line is that the bulls have the momentum and they have the positive news working for them. As long as the market does not sell off on good news and the dip-buyers stay active, the bulls own this market.
A lot of folks are looking to buy some weakness after this strong open, so I suspect we will stay solid all day. The name of the game now is, "How do I put some cash to work without being reckless?"
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CHIO +43.0% (light volume), GPI +4.4%, INTC +4.2%, GWW +3.9%, JPM +3.6%, CSX +2.6%, ASML +2.1%, ABT +1.5%, ALTR +1.4%, LLTC +1.0%... Select financial names showing strength boosted by JPM results: BCS +4.8%, RBS +4.3% (Royal Bank of Scotland eyes 300 branches sell-off - FT), DB +4.2%, LYG +4.0%, UBS +3.6%, CS +3.4%, C +3.3%, BAC +3.1%, WFC +3.1%, USB +2.9%, HBC +2.6%, MS +2.3%, AXA +2.3%, AIG +1.5%... Select metals/mining names trading higher: RTP +5.2% (Rio Tinto ups iron ore guidance on strong 3Q - DJ), MT +4.3%, BBL +3.2%, BHP +2.9%... Select oil/gas names showing strength: TOT +2.8%, STO +2.7%, REP +2.6%, BP +2.5%, RDS.A +2.2%, PBR +1.6% (Petrobras Brasileiro CEO says govt could increase stake by 17 percentage points - DJ), CHK +1.4% (raised FY09 natural gas production guidance to 815-825 bcf, up from 805-815 bcf)... Select semi related names showing strength: AMD +5.9%, STM +3.9%, MU +3.2%, SMH +3.1%, TXN +1.6%... Select iron/steel related names ticking higher with reports that China will curb steel production: AKS +3.0%, X +2.9%, STLD +1.7%... Select railroad related names ticking higher following CSX results: NSC +1.2%, UNP +1.2%... Select communications equipment related names showing early strength: SI +3.7%, NOK +3.5%, MOT +3.4% and BRCD +2.8% (Brocade and Motorola announce strategic relationship to accelerate advanced 802.11 wireless applications and Cloud Services), ERIC +3.0%... Select Indian related names ticking higher: SLT +5.8%, TTM +4.2%, SAY +1.9%, INP +1.4%, IFN +1.0%... Other news: ACPW +31.9% (receives second multimillion dollar order from internet search engine provider; "largest order in company history"), CNO +17.2% (announces that Paulson agrees to buy common stock and warrants), MERC +9.5% (announces CDN$57.7 mln in green transformation government funding for Celgar Mill), ACAS +8.3% (Grainger signed and closed an all cash acquisition of Imperial Supplies from American Capital), MYRX +8.3% (announces the identification of an IND candidate for the treatment of cancer, obesity, and diabetes), NYNY +7.0% (announces the reinstatement of a $4,400,000 secured credit facility), AIXG +6.0% (still checking), CIEN +5.1% (still checking), NICE +3.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), LVS +2.6% (Las Vegas Sands share offer set for November - SCMP.com)... Analyst comments: AMR +4.3% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays), HGSI +4.3% (target raised to $30 from $17 at Citigroup), TIN +3.7% (upgraded to Buy at Longbow), HOG +3.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Wells Fargo), SNY +2.5% (upgraded to Neutral at UBS), CSCO +1.7% (initiated with an Outperform at Wells Fargo), JNPR +1.4% (initiated with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ADTN -1.5%, DEO -1.1%... Other news: TDG -13.6% (trading ex dividend), CRME -11.5% (announced the preliminary results of its modified "Dutch Auction" tender offer), LDK -2.3% (announces changes to its management team), CBS -1.6% (files an amendment to its registration statement)... Analyst comments: ITRI -1.9% (downgraded to Underweight at Thomas Weisel), AGCO -1.8% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan). -
Vastuseks päevasele Reio küsimusele - veel mõne üksiku karu võib leida... aga ka koopast väljatiritud viimased karud on äraehmatatud näoga turu liikumist lihtsalt jälgimas. Nii müstiline kui see ka ei ole, siis näiteks David Tice ütleb tänases intervjuus, et aktsiaturud võivad aja jooksul teha isegi uued põhjad, pakkudes välja, et Dow tööstusindeks, mis täna kaupleb ca 10 000 punkti peal võiks oma põhja teha 1.0x raamatupidamisväärtuse ehk ca 3 100 punkti peal.... Samas, loomulikult on langusele panustavaid fonde juhtiv mees oma ütlustes erapoolik.
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Börsil valitsevaid eufoorilisi aegu ilmestab minu arvates hästi see, kui meediasse jõuavad sellised lood:
"Venemaal sai üks kodutu tühjade pudelite abil miljonäriks.63-aastane Leonid Konovalov korjas raha saamiseks tuhandeid ja tuhandeid pudeleid, kirjutab Reuters. Viimase aastaga korjas Konovalov päevas umbes 2000 pudelit. «Venelased joovad praeguse majanduskriisi ajal rohkem. Just nende jäetud tühjad pudelid aitasid mind uuesti heale järjele,» selgitas mees. Konovalov lisas, et kui tal oli pudelitest teatud summa koos, hakkas ta börsil mängima. Tal õnnestus see ning ta sai jõukaks. "
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12 tormist kuud on möödunud aktsiaturgudel enneolematult kiiresti. Dow Jones Tööstusindeks on jõudnud (taas) 10 000 punkti peale.
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Funny stuff, INTC peaks nagu tänase QQQQ plussi taga olema, aga see tiksub järjekindlalt allapoole ja kuubik püsib endiselt.
Samuti kõik seonduv plusse käest andnud.. capex playd KLAC, NVLS, LRCX isegi miinuses, AMAT ainukesena plusspoolel..
MSFT samuti plussi käest ära andnud. DELL tiksub allapoole.
Hoiavad ainult GOOG ja AMZN esmapilgul.
Ei oskagi midagi järeldada, lihtsalt kummaline. -
Ettevõtteid, mille päevakäive oleks üle 500 000 aktsia ja mis kaupleks oma uutel 52-nädala põhjadel leiab täna USA börsilt 0 tükki. See-eest uusi tippe tegevaid nimesid on terve ekraan täis.
Briefingust:
New highs (735) significantly outpace new lows (57): New 52-week highs trading over 500k (average daily volume) include: Aeorspace/Defense (COL, GD,GY), Banks (BBD, BBV, CS, DB, GS, ITUB, JPM, NBG, STD), Beverages (ABV, COT, PGB, TAP), Chemicals (APD, GRA, LZ, PPG, PX, RPM, SHW), Commercial Services (MAN, MED, SEIC, TSS, V), Computers (AAPL, CDNS, CSC, EMC, IBM, NTAP, SNPS, VIT, WDC), Diversified Financial Services (AMG, AMTD, BEN, BPSG, BX, JEF, JNS, NITE, WDR), Electric (CEG, CIG, CMS), Electronics (APH, FLEX, GRMN, IMAX, JBL, PHG, WAT), Food (CZZ, HOGS, UL, UN, WFMI), Healthcare-Services (BKD, CYH, DVA, LPNT), Insurance (AEG, AHL, AZ, CNO, L, PRE, XL), Internet (ABTG, AMZN, ASIA, EBAY, FFIV, GOOG, MELI, MFE, MYST, RAX, SAPE,), Iron/Steel (CLF, GGB, MTL, SID), Lodging (HOT, MAR, WYN), Mining (AGT, AMLM, BBL, BHP, BVN, CDE, FCX, GG, KGC, LIHR, MFN, NGD, PCU, RBY, SLT, SLW, SVM, TCK, UEC, VALE), Oil & Gas (APC, ARD, ATW, AXAS, CHK, CNQ, CXO, DO, EAC, ECA, ESV, GTE, HK, HP, IOC, MUR, NBR, NE, NFX, OXY, PBR, PXD, RDC, REXX, RRC, STO, STR, SU, TLM, TOT, XCO), Pharmaceuticals (ABC, ESRX, HITK, KG, MRX, PRGO, SGP, SNY, VRX, WYE), Retail-Apparel (AEO, ANF, COH, FINL, GES, GPS, JNY, JWN, LTD, LULU, TLB, VFC), Semiconductors (ACLS, ALTR, AMD, ARMH, ELX, IFNNY, INTC, IRF, LSI, PMCS, QLGC, STM, TER, TQNT, VECO, XLNX), Software (ARBA, ARST, CERN, CHKP, CPBY, CRM, ECLP, INFA, MDRX, NUAN, QSFT, SAP, SLH, SY, VMW), Telecommunications (ADTN, AMT, AMX, CCI, COMS, CSCO, CYCL, FTWR, MBT, OCLR, SBAC, TWTC, VIP, VIV), Transports (CHRW, CNI, FDX, JBHT)...
New 52-week lows trading over 500k (average daily volume)includes: N/A -
mis selle CHK probleem siis nüüd järsku on?
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Turg kardab tõenäoliselt seda, et tootmismahtude suurendamine toob kaasa suuremad kapitalikulutused ja aeglasema finantsvõimenduse vähendamise. Aga minu arvates on prognooside tõstmise taga eeldus, et maagaasi hinnad on aastail 2010 ja 2011 oluliselt kõrgemal, mis võimaldaksid lihtsalt suuremat tulu teenida - vastasel korral tõmmatakse need prognoosid hiljem uuesti allapoole ja koos sellega väheneks ka capex.
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Homme õhtul 2 täna kõva tõusjat avaldamas aruandeid : GOOG ja GS. Kummast paremat tulemust oodata ning kui suur on oht põrumisele.
GOOG on koos AAPL ( kes seeis esmaspäeval avaldab) andnud järjest positiivseid uudiseid. Kas üritatakse turule näidata, et tulemustest hoolimata on kõik väga hea või ongi tulemas 2 väga kõva raketti üles?
