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Börsipäev 16. oktoober

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  • Uuendasin taaskord ära meie tulemuste tabeli. Ettevõtted on küll järjekindlalt ületamas kasumiprognoose, kuid aktsiate reageeringud on tulemustejärgselt olnud oluliselt tagasihoidlikumad. Kui seni raporteerinud ja tabelisse mahtunud 23st suuremast ettevõttest on kasumiootustele alla jäänud vaid 2, siis järgmisel päeval on miinusesse langenud neist lausa 13. 'Sell the news' efekt on vähemalt üksikute aktsiate puhul töötamas - turg tervikuna on aga seni jätkuvalt kõrgemale rühkinud.

    Täna enne turgu tulevad numbrid Bank of Americalt (BAC) ja General Electrilt (GE).

  • USA futuurid indikeerivad võrreldes eilse sulgemisega ca 0.1% kuni 0.2% kõrgemaid tasemeid. Nafta on ca 0.5% plussis ning on vargsi ülesse poole liikudes jõudnud välja juba $78 tasemele.
  • Eile kinnitas oma $35list hinnasihti Chesapeake Energy (CHK) aktsiale Oppenheimer ning Calyon tõstis oma sihi $33 pealt $36 peale:

    "We continue to believe that despite Chesapeake's strong stock performance this year, its upside potential in the next 12-18 months is much greater than the downside risk from continued low natural gas prices. Oppenheimer has an "outperform" rating for the company with a target price for the next 12-18 months pegged at $35."

    Calyon Securities analyst Jeb Armstrong also raised Chesapeake's target price from $33 to $36.

  • Biggs arvab siinses intervjuus, et hoolimata kiiresti tõusnud turust võiksid USA aktsiad veelgi 10% kuni 15% tõusta.

  • Sony Ericsson teatas täna oma kolmanda kvartali tulemustest, mis lõid kergelt ootusi. Kolme kuu puhaskahjum suurenes eelmise aasta 25 miljonilt eurolt 164 miljonile, ent vähenes siiski võrreldes eelmise kvartaliga, mil kahjumiks oli -213 miljonit eurot. Müügitulu kahanes aastaga 2.8 miljardilt eurolt 1.6 miljardile eurole, mistõttu saavutati kerge paranemine kasumireal tänu kulude kokkutõmbamisele – aprillis teatati, et lisaks eelmisel aastal koondatud 2000 töölisele kavatsetakse tänavu lahti lasta veel sama palju inimesi.
    Sarnaselt Nokiale näitas Sony ja Ericssoni ühisfirma QoQ baasil suuremat ühikumüüki (+2%), mis viitab turu aeglasele taastumisele. Globaalne käsiseadmete müük peaks ettevõtte sõnul 2008. aastaga võrreldes tänavu vähenema ligikaudu 10% - ehk veidi negatiivsem nägemus võrreldes Nokia -7%-ga. 

    Ericssoni aktsia kaupleb uudise peale +1.7% plussis.

  • Bank of America prelim ($0.26) vs ($0.21) First Call consensus; revs $26.04 bln vs $27.61 bln First Call consensus
    Halliburton prelim $0.29 vs $0.26 First Call consensus; revs $3.6 bln vs $3.42 bln First Call consensus
  • Estee Lauder (EL) expects better-than-anticipated 1Q results
  • Siin ka hommikused GE tulemused:

    General Electric prelim $0.27, ex-$0.05 restructuring/other charges vs $0.20 First Call consensus; revs $37.8 bln vs $39.50 bln First Call consensus

    Kehv käive ei jää kindlasti investoritele märkamata. Meie tulemuste tabelis (vt siin) on siiani peaaegu kõik ettevõtted (va CSX & PBG), mis müügituludega pole suutnud ootusi täita, korralikult kukkunud.  

     

  • FTEK, mida oleme tutvustanud Pro muude analüüside all, saab täna kasvuaktsiatele keskenduvalt Brean Murryilt ostusoovituse hinnasihiga $13. Tees kattub ka meie pikaajalise nägemusega:

    Brean Murray initiates FTEK with a Buy and price target of $13. Overall, the firm believes that FTEK is very well positioned to benefit from the global trend to make fossil fuels, particularly coal, cleaner. In the firm's opinion, as one of the only pure-play "clean coal" equities, FTEK is likely to get more positive recognition by investors, as the U.S. and other nations, including China, begin to enact stricter emissions standards for coal. (briefing) 

  • Jefferies tõstab Google'i (GOOG) tulemuste järgselt aktsiale antavat hinnasihti $470 pealt $600 peale.
  • ma tõstan $1500 peale
    on kellegil kobiseda midagi vastu?
  • GOOGi street high target kuulub siis nüüd rams'ile ;D
  • Kui eile kukkus Tai aktsiaturg kuninga tervise halvenemise tõttu ca 5.5%, siis täna mõisteti, et tegu oli ikka ülereageeringuga ning Tai aktsiaturg on tänane Aasia suurim tõusja ca 3.6%lise plussiga. Kui USA futuurid olid hommikul plussis ja ka Euroopa alustas kauplemispäeva tugeva ralliga, siis nüüdseks on tehtud kannapööre ning Euroopa on ca 1% miinuses ja USA ca 0.6% punases.

    Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX -0.87%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.00%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.47%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.50%
    Rootsi OMX 30 +0.54%
    Venemaa MICEX -0.96%
    Poola WIG -0.55%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.18%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.31%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.11%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.14%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.43%
    Tai Set 50 +3.62%
    India Sensex 30 +0.74%

  • Market Indifferent to Earnings
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    10/16/2009 9:14 AM EDT

    "The wheel of change moves on, and those who were down go up and those who were up go down."

    -- Jawaharlal Nehru

    Earnings season is playing out quite a bit differently this quarter than it did for second-quarter reports. While the market is acting quite well, the key individual stocks that have reported have not attracted buyers. Most every major stock, except for Google (GOOG) , has seen selling following their report so far. This morning, General Electric (GE) , International Business Machines (IBM) and Bank of America (BAC) are weak on their reports, and yesterday we saw further pressure on Intel (INTC) after solid numbers.

    The peculiar thing is that the broad indices maintain very strong momentum and seem indifferent to earnings news. They are more interested in celebrating the Dow 10,000 milestone, and that seems to be improving the mood.

    What is really helping the market in addition to this celebratory mood is that the extreme strength in crude oil is driving the energy sector while the continued weakness in the dollar is helping commodities. We haven't seen numbers in those groups, but they are helping to offset the lumpy reports we have seen so far.

    There really isn't any big mystery about the general weakness we have seen on earnings reports so far. Most things have run quite a bit, and expectations have gotten too high. That is the setup for a sell-the-news reaction to reports like IBM and Intel, which really aren't bad at all. It is just that they are too extended to attract much new buying at this point.

    The danger for this market now is that the positive mood and sentiment we have seen the last few days might give way to greater worry about the reaction to earnings reports, especially as we see many more of the secondary names over the next couple weeks.

    The indices have bounced on lighter volume started on Oct. 2 and have gone straight up to new highs with almost no rest. Momentum often surprises you with its strength and keeps going, but the higher we go, the more danger there is of a sudden selling spike. There is plenty of underlying support, and dip-buyers are out in force, but they may be willing to stand aside for a bit if we do start seeing more negative reactions to earnings reports.

    Last quarter we were joking about how it was a great idea to buy stocks that moved up strongly into their earnings report because they would obviously just keep on going, no matter what the numbers might be. This quarter we have a more normal environment that has higher expectations, and stocks that run up big are having trouble attracting even more buyers.

    That is the psychology at work right now, and that is the theme we have to watch for as more reports play out. There is still good trading, and I'm not looking for the market to fall apart fast, but the reaction to earnings is a warning that we need to monitor very closely for the next couple weeks.

    We have a negative start to the day, but they are liking Google.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TPX +14.0%, HRLY +11.5%, CYT +8.4%, GOOG +3.6%, CBST +2.6%... Other news: TRGT +19.5% (co announced data from highly successful Phase 2b Trial of TC-5214 as augmentation treatment for major depressive disorder; stock was upgraded at Needham this morning), SPPI +8.0% (still checking), KNDI +7.9% (light volume - announces that its electric powered COCO vehicle has met requirements to receive tax credits in the US; anticipates this will spur US sales), EL +6.4% (now expects to report net EPS significantly higher than previous guidance), SLT +3.5% (prices public offering of $500 mln of convertible senior notes)... Analyst comments: NTRI +4.5% (Janney Montgomery Scott upgrades to Buy), AUDC +10.5% (upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MTG -15.1%, CRYP -10.4%, AMD -5.7%, IBM -4.6%, BAC -4.6%, GE -2.5%... Select bank/financial stocks showing weakness: AIG -5.4%, ING -2.8%, DB -2.8%, C -2.7%, BCS -2.0%, UBS -2.0%, WFC -1.7%... Other news: PMI -5.6% (trading down in sympathy with MTG), SGMS -4.2% (trading down on light volume following CRYP's lower guidance)... Analyst comments: FFIV -2.5% (downgraded to Perform at Opco), SHAW -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), WSM -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Goldman - DJ).
  • September Industrial Production +0.7% vs +0.2% consensus, prior revised to +1.2% from +0.8%; Capacity Utilization 70.5% from 69.9%
  • Naljakas sell-off käib praegu. Turg nagu kukuks, aga kui üksikaktsiaid vaadata, siis aktsiate langus kestab täpselt senikaua, kuni keegi räigelt bididesse sisse müüb. Nii kui müügipress vaiksemaks jääb ja käive ära vajub, on aktsiad hopshops tagasi üleval.
    Ehk siis nii kui käive vaiksemaks jääb, peaks ostma kõike.
  • Kui ma futuure kaupleks, siis ma läheks SPY futuurides pikaks praegu :)
    Käive kadunud, BAC ja GE suuna üles võtnud, USO samuti.

    Virtuaalne long SPY @ $108.42.
  • Out $108.55.

    Kui ma futuuridega seda oleks teinud, siis oleks vist rikkaks saanud või?
  • futuurid on jama, ikka forexil mitmesajakordse võimedusega toimetada, vot see on päris meestemängumaa. Selline mõne sendi kaupa juntimine on titekas.
  • Ainus põhjus, miks mitte full margin long olla on see, et kõik vist arvavad, et täna lõpetame rohelises. Mina kaasa arvatud.
  • Forexit on tegelikult päris tervislik vaadata. Sel ajal, kui jim pikaks pakkus, joonistas eur/usd koridori, mis pidi alla avanema ja tuli ka ES alla järgi.
  • loolilegi on selgeks saanud, et turud enam ei saa kukkuda
    mina kaasarvatud
    kogu rahaga ostan igat dippi 4x võimendusega
  • vōttes arvesse, et:
    (Miku postitus eile) Harris of BoA Merrill lynch, for example, argues that we are seeing the lagged effect of the immense monetary and fiscal stimulus pumped into the system. The market can see the economic numbers improve and investors also know that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to push rates higher until 2011. That is because the output gap (the difference between what the economy is actually producing and its potential) is still large. Inflation will only start to emerge once that gap has been closed, and that could be some years away. So investors have the choice between cash yielding zero, government bonds at 3-4% and equities which can RISE 3% in a WEEK.
    ja

    The dollar may drop to 50 yen next year and eventually lose its role as the global reserve currency, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.’s chief strategist said,...

    siis tōepoolest - there is no limits. :-)
  • dollarites laenu võtnud saavad ikkest lahti ja eurooplane ägab edasi oma laenude all
  • võtaks heameelega dollari laenu ostaks ero kinnisvara ja varsti maksaks 1 euroga 2 mullise dollari laenu tagasi
    edasi euroopapasapead
  • täna Google tugevas plussis, huvitav on see et Bidu mis on alati korrelatsioonis olnud Googlega on suht stabiilselt 400 peal. Kas võib olla võimalik et täna on opstsioonireede ja keegi hoiab lihtsalt kinni 400 taset? Kui nii siis võib ka Baidu varsti üles liikuda
  • Keefe Bruyette upgrades täna CME Group-i (CME) ja Intercontinentalexchange-i (ICE):
    Outperform from Market Perform and raises their tgt to $360 from $296, and to $120 from $103 saying they adjust estimates and ratings for the futures exchanges and brokers whose earnings are predominantly based on derivatives trading as they see multiple catalysts for an increase in derivatives trading in the coming quarters...

    Täna mõlemad +7 punkti.

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